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  Talk Elections
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  ROC President and Legislative elections Jan 11 2020
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #350 on: June 06, 2020, 11:47:20 am »

Ugh, that sort of thing always sucks.
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jaichind
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« Reply #351 on: June 06, 2020, 04:34:59 pm »

Now that Han has been recalled one can now track the scale of his fall and scale of DPP Prez Tsai's recovery.  In Feb 2019 when there started a draft Han movement within the KMT the Feb 2019 TVBS poll had

KMT Han  54
DPP Tsai   25

and

KMT Han  37
Ko           35
DPP Tsai   15

The DPP Tsai recovery is just amazing.  The only other recovery on this scale I have seen would be the Yelsin 1996 campaign.  Yelsin was polling in the single digits in early 1996 but came from  behind to win a comfortable victory in the Summer of 1996.

I was one of those few pro-KMT supporters that saw this danger even though I never expected the scale of DPP Tsai recovery was I thought in early 2019 Tsai had a shot at winning a narrow re-election even though I felt she was a underdog.  The reason why is because the KMT did nothing to deserve the 2018 local election victory which was purely based on comical self-goals by the DPP.  As soon as the DPP saw their peril in early 2019 they, as I feared, got their act together.   

I am not sure if there is an active political future for Han.  The 2019-2020 campaigns does mean that there is a sizable Han faction within the KMT so Han will be a person of influence although his record might be so tarnished as to not be a viable front line politician. 

Ironically Kaoshiung KMT speaker 許崑源(Shu Kuan-Yuan)'s suicide might produce some sympathy for Han, especially if the DPP makes light of this event and make uncharitable comments.

Han made many mistakes with the key one thinking Tsai was easy to beat and deciding to run the Prez stop in 2020.  Another error I feel is not talked about his blowing up relationship with 楊秋興 (Yang Chiu-Shin.)   楊秋興 (Yang Chiu-Shin) can best be described a ROC's Charlie Crist.  He was a key member of the New Tide faction and was a rising superstar in the DPP when he won the Kaohsiung County magistrate in 2001 and 2005.  Winning re-election in 2005 by a landslide was especially impressive since that was a KMT landslide year.  In 2010 Kaohsiung City and County were merged.  Both  楊秋興 (Yang Chiu-Shin) and fellow New Tide DPP Kaohsiung mayor 陳菊(Chen Chu) wanted the DPP nomination and in a DPP primary that 楊秋興 (Yang Chiu-Shin) considered unfair due to DPP Chairperson Tsai being biased in favor of 陳菊(Chen Chu), 陳菊(Chen Chu) won.  楊秋興 (Yang Chiu-Shin) bolted the DPP and ran as an independent (with PFP support) and ran such a strong campaign that he pushed the KMT candidate into 3rd place becoming the de facto Pan-Blue candidate in the race.  After the 2010 election 楊秋興 (Yang Chiu-Shin) joined the KMT and ran in 2014 as the KMT candidate to take on DPP incumbent 陳菊(Chen Chu) again and was crushed in a landslide in a DPP wave year.  楊秋興 (Yang Chiu-Shin) was asked if he wanted to run in 2018 and he indicated that his defeats in 2010 and 2014 showed he could not combine the KMT base and marginal DPP voters to win.  He recommended Han to run instead.  He then became a key organizer of the Han victory given his deep roots in Kaoshiung.  After Han got elected he was expect to be given a key position in the Han administration but was sidelined by Han.  In anger 楊秋興 (Yang Chiu-Shin) refused the minor role he was given and started to become a critic of Han.  By late 2019 his relationship with Han was so bad that he actually bolted from the KMT endorsed DPP Tsai (the same person he accused in 2010 of rigging the DPP Kaohsiung mayor primary againist him.)  The entire saga showed the pettiness and inability to broaden his coalition by Han and is symbolic of his fall from the threshold of peak political power.
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Ishan
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« Reply #352 on: June 06, 2020, 07:01:02 pm »

Do you think Han would be recalled hadnít he told voters to not turn up. I think he did it so that Greens in a Pan Blue family if they vote, they will be known as different
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jaichind
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« Reply #353 on: June 06, 2020, 07:12:22 pm »

Do you think Han would be recalled hadnít he told voters to not turn up. I think he did it so that Greens in a Pan Blue family if they vote, they will be known as different

He knew he would be beaten in a straight Blue-Green battle given the current environment.   In the 2020 Prez race in Kaohsiung it was DPP Tsai 48.2% of VAP, KMT Han 26.8% of VAP and PFP Soong 2.4% of VAP.  These numbers tell him that his 39.1% of VAP support in the 2018 race has mostly dissipated.  His only hope is to deescalate the Blue-Green confration aspect of the race and hope the Pan-Green vote does not come out given fears over the virus.  Instead they came out in massive numbers.  If he told his supporters to come out to vote I suspect it will provoke some more marginal Pan-Green voters to come out end the result be something like 43% of VAP for recall and 25% of VAP against.
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jaichind
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« Reply #354 on: August 01, 2020, 02:06:30 pm »

I spent some time going district by district (including the aborigine seats) in the 2020 legislative elections to categorize every candidate to extract the vote share by bloc.

What I did was to count all KMT backed candidates (including independents or a candidate of another party) into KMT+ and same for DPP to get DPP+.  I then computed Pan-Blue and Pan-Green vote shares by adding int Minor Blue, Minor Green, Pan-Blue Ind and Pan-Green Ind vote shares.

What I got was

         KMT+  Minor Blue  Pan-Blue  Total Blue    DPP+  Minor Green Pan-Green Total Green   TPP+
2020 41.98%   1.55%      2.13%    45.65%   48.70%    2.06%         0.96%       51.72%   2.31%

If I do the same for 2016 2012 and 2008 I get

        KMT+  Minor Blue  Pan-Blue  Total Blue    DPP+  Minor Green Pan-Green Total Green 
2016 39.66%    3.41%     1.01%   44.08%     51.96%     2.73%         0.76%      55.45%
2012 49.46%    1.56%     2.41%   53.43%    44.53%     0.77%         1.08%      46.39%
2008 56.12%    0.89%     1.55%   58.56%    39.54%     0.88%         0.90%      41.31%

One can see that the KMT+ did make up a lot of ground since the debacle of 2016.  Namely the KMT was able to close the KMT+ vs DPP+ vote share  gap from 39.66%-51.96% to 41.98%-48.70%. The total Pan Blue vote share actually went up from 2016 despite TPP+ now being in the fray.   The 2020 KMT+ to DPP+ vote share gap is not that different from the 2012 DPP+ to KMT+ gap.  It seems clear that a lot of light Blue voters voted Tsai for Prez and TPP on the PR slate but voted Pan-Blue in the district race.  If true then as long as the DPP regime stumbles in the 2020-2024 period there is plenty of space for the KMT to make a comeback in 2024.  Main risk is the anti-DPP vote might shift toward TPP in 2024.
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