ROC President and Legislative elections Jan 11 2020

[jaichind]

UDN poll

DPP primary (Tsai catching up) (diff from Dec 2018)

         All voters      Green voters
Tsai     25(+11)          51(+25)
Lai      35(-11)           38(-19)

It seems DPP High command (aka Tsai cronies) should go from a "closed" primary


KMT primary (I suspect Guo will go up from here)

              All voters      Blue voters    Green voters
Han            26                48                   7
Guo            19                23                 17
Chu1          13                13                 16
Wang          11                 4                 26

Guo has cross partisan appeal and most likely gain with Blue voters with time as well


General election

KMT Han 36 Ko 26 DPP Tsai 20
KMT Guo 31 Ko 27 DPP Tsai 20
Ko 34 KMT Chu 25 DPP Tsai 20
Ko 39 DPP Tsai 19 KMT Wang 13

KMT Han 36 Ko 26 DPP Lai 21
KMT Guo 38 Ko 28 DPP Lai 22
Ko 34 KMT Chu 23 DPP Lai 23
Ko 39 DPP Lai 24 KMT Wang 11

Main problem for Lai is that he only does marginally better than Tsai.  His entire primary challenge is based on the fact that he will be a better candidate in the general election.  It seems Tsai's strategy of delaying and waiting out Lai is working.  The chances that Tsai will be the DPP candidate is going up by the day.

[jaichind]

Han came out with a statement that he cannot, under the current rules, enter himself into the KMT primary but along the way took pot shots at KMT High command for pushing Guo into the race.  In response the KMT changed its primary rules to make the KMT nomination 100% based on polls versus the 70% based on polls and 30% based on party member vote (which gives Han a better chance).  It also changed the rules that the KMT gets to pull people into the race without that person throwing himself or herself into the races.  In other words now the KMT will just put Han's name into the KMT primary without Han having to face the problem how to explain to the Kaohsiung electorate and City assembly on why he is joining the KMT primary just after being elected.  The date of the primary will be in June.

It seems for now for the KMT the crisis is over.   Chu and Wang will complain but it seems the path to KMT victory in 2020 is to get the pro-Guo and pro-Han forces to unite.

[jaichind]

Latest xfutures odds on KMT nominee

Guo    49
Han    37
Chu    11
Wang   3

[jaichind]

IF Tsai survives the Primary (or whatever the DPP is pulling), who is the person she would prefer to destroy easily in a landslide by double digits ?

The weakest KMT candidate would be Wang, but if a wounded Tsai enters the race against Wang then for sure Ko will get into the race and most likely win.

[jaichind]

Latest TVBS poll

The main headline is the revival of Ko despite being out of the news

3 way

KMT Han 42 Ko 25 DPP Tsai 22
KMT Han 41 Ko 25 DPP Lai 24
KMT Guo 31 Ko 28 DPP Tsai 22
KMT Guo 30 Ko 27 DPP Lai 24
Ko 33 KMT Chu 26  DPP Tsai 22
Ko 32 KMT Chu 26 DPP Lai 23
Ko 37 DPP Tsai 22 KMT Wang 15
Ko 36 DPP Lai 24 KMT Wang 14

Ko clearly gaining ground relative to the KMT given recent conflict within KMT over its nomination process

Note that DPP Tsai always has around 22 and DPP Lai around 24  no matter what.  In a 3 way race this is actually a high floor but a low ceiling.  This represents the DPP core.

2 way

KMT Han 51 DPP Tsai 33
KMT Han 50 DPP Lai 36
KMT Guo 44 DPP Tsai 33
KMT Guo 42 DPP Lai 37
KMT Chu 40  DPP Tsai 33
DPP Lai 39 KMT Chu 36
DPP Tsai 34 KMT Wang 28
DPP Lai 41 KMT Wang 24

The Ko vote contains a good section of the anti-Tsai but pan-Green vote that will come home to Lai in a 2 way race but not Tsai. 

So the hierarchy of candidates are:

KMT Han > KMT Guo > Ko > DPP Lai > KMT Chu > DPP Tsai > KMT Wang

[jaichind]

Oh, same TVBS poll on KMT and DPP primaries

KMT primary
Han    38
Guo    18
Wang  14
Chu    11

Seems like there is a lot of overlap between Han and Chu

DPP Primary
Lai     39
Tsai    24

[jaichind]

Could Tsai lose the DPP Primary if things get worse ?

I think the situation for Tsai is getting better and better. In head to head matchups in various polls she is not really doing that much worse than Lai.  I think that fact and that she enjoys greater support with Pan-Green voters means that by hook or crook she and DPP High command will push her over the finishing line. 

[jaichind]

A key Lai supporter Wu(吳祥輝) who has a long time activist for DPP as well as radical Taiwan Independence supporter came out to attack Tsai as a "Political Whore" which had to be walked back by the Lai bloc.  

But this incident which clearly shows significant gender bias toward Tsai within the anti-Tsai bloc within the DPP that on paper is progressive demonstrates my point that the anti-Tsai movement within the DPP is on paper the radical Taiwan Independence bloc coming out to attack "moderate" Tsai but is more about the social conservative bloc's dissatisfaction with Tsai's more socially liberal leanings plus the fact that she is an unmarried women without children.  

I showed this diagram several times and will show it again where it shows that the core DPP vote are socially conservative (upper left) even though the DPP activist youth are progressive (upper right) with the DPP MPs in the middle.  The KMT MPs and KMT vote base are much more united on their social views.  What united the DPP was their opposition to unification (upper part of the chart) and the KMT their opposition to Independence (lower part of the chart).  But the hidden danger for the DPP has always been that if social issues gains salience they might actually blow up.  

[jaichind]

Chinatimes poll (pro-Han)

KMT primary
Han    34.2
Guo    16.3
Wang  11.0
Chu      7.0

DPP primary
Lai      32.0
Tsai     23.6


2 way battle
KMT Han 49.6 DPP Tsai 30.4
KMT Han 47.2 DPP Lai 32.9
KMT Guo 45.6 DPP Tsai 30.3
KMT Han 43.0 DPP Lai 33.1

3 way
KMT Han 41.1 Ko 25.0 DPP Tsai 20.9
KMT Han 40.1 Ko 25.4 DPP Tsai 21.1

If Han does not win KMT primary and runs as independent (it is almost impossible that both Han and Ko run as independents)

Han         27.5
KMT Guo  19.4
Ko           16.9
DPP Tsai   15.0

[jaichind]

Xfuture markets odds

KMT nomination
Guo    45
Han    41
Chu    10
Wang   4

DPP nomination
Tsai   57
Lai    43

Both markets seems to indicate the power of the preference of "insiders" in the KMT and DPP.  While polls show Han and Lai are ahead in polls the insiders of both parties prefer Guo and Tsai respectively. 

[jaichind]

What about the rumors of the DPP pushing Lai to take the VP spot ?

Well, the Tsai camp is clearly pushing that but Lai refuse to budge insisting that the primary process finishes first then work out who is Prez and who is VP on the ticket.  Lai had said that if he loses the primary he will 100% support Tsai in the general election.  Tsai seems to refuse to make the same pledge.  I think Tsai is using the Trump tactic of 2016 GOP primaries,.  By threatening a independent run Trump got GOP voters interesting in winning 2016 to back Trump as the alternative almost certainly mean defeat in the 2016 general election if Trump runs as an independent.   

[jaichind]

"Taiwanese tycoon Terry Gou gets tips from Donald Trump over presidential bid"

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/taiwanese-tycoon-terry-gou-gets-tips-from-donald-trump-over-presidential-bid

[jaichind]

Tsai pulling a Trump-like reelection campaign ?

Perhaps.  It could work in a 3 way race.  Tsai's ceiling is pretty low but on the other hand her floor is not too bad in a 3 way race.  Trump is is in a much stronger position where is high floor low ceiling situation could give him a win if there are some 3rd party candidates pus a stronger turnout in his base.  In a 2 way race I think Tsai would have huge problems.  In a 3 way race she could rally a strong turnout by her core DPP base on perhaps win if there is a last minute Ko collapse.

[jaichind]

The most recent development in the DPP primary is that the pro-Tsai forces are now trying add in new rules in the polling process so that in include cell phones.  The basic idea is that Tsai is stronger than Lai among the youth so this sort of change will benefit her.  Of course Lai forces are fighting against this.

Current xfutures odds which has not changed that much last couple of weeks

DPP nominee
Tsai  59.5
Lai    40.5

KMT nominee
Han    46
Guo    40
Chu    10
Wang    3

[jaichind]

The most recent development in the DPP primary is that the pro-Tsai forces are now trying add in new rules in the polling process so that in include cell phones.  The basic idea is that Tsai is stronger than Lai among the youth so this sort of change will benefit her.  Of course Lai forces are fighting against this.

Current xfutures odds which has not changed that much last couple of weeks

DPP nominee
Tsai  59.5
Lai    40.5

KMT nominee
Han    46
Guo    40
Chu    10
Wang    3

She's in good shape for the DPP Primary for Taiwanese President, but in the GE: it's a whole different story.

Frankly given how Tsai is able to get back into contention in the DPP primary through hook or crook I think her chances in a 3 way race in the general election is underestimated. 

[jaichind]

Despite referendum results to the contrary, the DPP majority passed a Gay Marriage law.  The main compromise given the clear mandate against Gay Marriage in last year's referendum is that the law will not say "Gay Marriage" but say "a Gay couple can be in a state of marriage."  That way Southern DPP MPs can still say to their socially conservative supporters: "Marriage is only between a man an a women but all we did we say gay couples can be in marriage like state"

On the whole I think Tsai played this correctly.  I think the gay marriage issue which really blew up the DPP in 2018 will have less salience in 2020 if Tsai gets it out of the way, lock up her Northern Progressive voters and then shift the election to relationship with Mainland China and hope her DPP Southern socially conservative base just moves on.  It will not 100% work but DPP held a bad hand here to she is doing what makes the most sense to minimize losses.

Separately the Lai camp have agreed to allow cell phones in the DPP Prez primary whenever it is held.  The chances of a Tsai victory in the DPP primary and in fact the general election is going up.

[jaichind]

Looks like the pro-Tsai camp was going to force their preferred plan for the Primary past the DPP Central Committee but got ambushed by Lai last minute. 

What Tsai wanted is
a) The poll is 50/50 land line and cell phone
b) The poll is a 3 way match comparison on how Tsai and Lai does respectively in a 3 way race with KMT Han and Ko.

The reason is at this stage the DPP base is split into 3 blocs.  The local core DPP vote, the marginal DPP or ex-DPP vote, and the progressive youth.  The way Tsai figures it, in a 2 way poll match-up with KMT Han, the marginal DPP voter will back Lai but will be for Han.  The progressive youth will be for Lai and Tsai over Han.  The core DPP vote will be for Lai and Tsai no matter what.  But in a 3 way race the marginal  DPP voter will vote Ko no matter what.  The progressive youth will split their vote between Ko and DPP but will lean Tsai over Lai relative to Ko.  So the Tsai camp is to make sure the poll is 3 way and mobile phones which are progressive youth heavy are included.

If this plan gets passed then Lai is in trouble.  But there is a solid majority of Tsai cronies that will pass this. So in desperation Lai through out his proposal.
 
a) The poll should be comparison of Lai and Tsai vs Han respectively
b) Open to using mobile phones but not 50/50
c) If Tsai beats Han then Lai will back Tsai no matter how he does against Han
b) If Lai loses to Han then Lai will back Tsai no matter how Tsai does against Han 
e) If Lai bets Han but Han beat Tsai then Lai want to be come the DPP nominee

This gambit is positioning the Lai camp to be all about DPP winning the general election and projecting the Tsai camp about about rigging the rules for her to win.  Lai's gamble is that in a 2 way poll the pro-Lai vote will come to back him while in a Han vs Tsai poll the pro-Lai vote will be split between Tsai and Han.  Lai further gambles that given the media coverage of the DPP primary he might overtake Han in the poll and emerge as the candidate.

The DPP high command was forced to stop the steamroll and halt to consider his proposal for another week halting the pro-Tsai railroad of the process. 

[jaichind]

Current xfutures odds has moved in the direction of Lai and Guo

DPP nominee
Tsai  56.5
Lai    43.5

KMT nominee
Guo    47
Han    41
Chu      9
Wang    3

[jaichind]

DPP, over Lai's objection, came out with the primary method and schedule. 
1) The DPP primary will be 50 land/50 cell
2) The poll will be to see which DPP candidate (Tsai or Lai) does better in a 3 way contest against KMT Han and Ko
3) There will be a Tsai vs Lai debate 6/8
4) Polling will take place 6/10 to 6/14 (I assume several polling firms will be engaged)
5) 6/19 results announced

The pundit consensus is that Tsai will win given how she has kept Lai out the news and the structure of the DPP primary elevates her youth support while the anti-Tsai DPP vote will back Ko in polls taking away Lai's main advatnage

Xfutures markets does not agree

DPP nominee
Lai     51
Tsai    49
 
Lai chances shot up since now the path where DPP just cancels the primaries and just nominates Tsai has been avoided

meanwhile xfutures market for KMT nominee has Han's chances shooting up mainly due to recent allegations that Han is having a affair which seems so trumped up it pulled in sympathy support for Han

KMT nominee
Han       48
Guo       38
Chu       10
Wang      2

[jaichind]

Monster pro-Han rally on Sat in Taipei in response to allegations that Han had an affair and has a lovechild.  The Han camp claimed the size of the rally was 400K but most likely it more like 150K-200K. One way or another it is impressive given it was a rainy day.

[jaichind]

The pro-Lai camp forces are now claiming that the pro-Tsai camp is collecting a large number of cell phone numbers in order to influence the DPP primaries.  It also seems that the pro-Tsai camp intends to find out exactly when the polls will be conducted by the pollsters so they can coordinate their forces to be next to their phones when the polls will be conducted.   

[jaichind]

Ettoday got a "leaked" internal Tsai camp poll which has it at

KMT Han 32 DPP Tsai 26 Ko 24
KMT Han 30 Ko 28 DPP Lai 24

when with the poll being down the way the primary poll will be done (50/50 between land lines and cell phones.)  This internal poll show what gives Tsai the edge is the youth vote (20-29) where it is Ko 42 Tsai 33 Han 13 but with Lai it is Ko 57 Lai 17 Han 12.  This "internal" poll is exactly the sort of result the Tsai camp had in mind when the wanted a) Ko to be part of the DPP primary poll and b) it has to have 50% cell phone to make sure that the relative strength of Tsai with the youth is factored in and for Ko to take way the pro-Tsai youth vote from Lai.

[jaichind]

What exactly are the major differences between the policy positions of Ko and the DPP? His Wikipedia article says that he shares their "strategic goals" and that he's considered to be a member of the pan-green coalition, but I'd assume that he wouldn't be running if they were truly aligned given that it appears to jeopardize the pan-green coalition's chance at the presidency.

Ko does not have a set policy position other than to be the representative of the anti-politics.  Ko does come from a Deep Green background when he was a doctor but always had an anti-establishment appeal.  In 2014 the DPP, tired of losing Taipei election after election, backed Ko to run as an independent to beat KMT's Lien (one trivia here was that in 2010 Ko actually as a doctor saved help Lien's life when Lien was mistakenly shot by an assassin when Lien was part of an KMT election rally and testify publicly that Lien's injuries were not faked as many DPP were claiming.)  Of course 2014 ended up being such an anti-KMT wave year that the DPP most likely could have won even if they ran one of their own.   

Before the DPP victory in 2016, Ko and the DPP were fairly aligned as Ko's main political message was anti-politics and iconoclasm so both took target at the KMT regime at the center.  After the DPP took over Ko started to opportunistically attack the DPP by taking non-conventional positions to provoke the DPP, distinguish himself from the DPP, and be consistent with his anti-politics image.  For example, what really provoked the DPP based was that he at times shifted to a even more pro-unification position than the KMT.  He said "Mainland China and Taiwan are part of one family and there is nothing we cannot discuss as part of the same family" which frankly only radical Chinese unificationists like the NP or myself would dare say.  Ko's strategy in 2017-2018 seem to be that given things were not going well with the DPP regime after 2016 and the KMT going nowhere in their revival, he can run in 2020 and position himself that can work with the PRC and at the same time get the PRC to give up on working with the KMT.   The KMT revival of 2018 seems to have undermined this strategy so he is moving to a more centrist but still anti-politics positions.

All in all Ko, if he runs, will cut into both the KMT and DPP votes equally and will appeal to the youth.  Him running will help the DPP at the legislative level as demoralized DPP youth voters will come out in 2020 if Ko is on the ballot and most likely vote DPP downballot. 

[jaichind]

Sounds like the DPP will get wiped out in 2020.

I wish that were true.  I think as long as Tsai wins the DPP primary by a decisive margin and not be seen as rigging the primary, with the Han-Guo conflict in the KMT and Ko running which adds volatility to the race the DPP has a real shot at winning.  The DPP right now is a good deal better positioned than in Jan 2019.  The KMT not being able to consolidate behind Guo or Han has throw away a landslide hand even if it still a winning hand.

[jaichind]

What about the Governorships & Mayoralties ? Can the DPP perform well down-ballot ?

Well there are only county and municipal elections which took place in 2018 already where the DPP got smashed

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=281097.250

There are no elections for governors. ROC only has 3 provinces.  Taiwan Province which include all counties/cites on the Island of Taiwan besides the 6 special cities (Taipei, New Taipei, Taoyuan, Tainan and Kaohsiung.)  There is Fuijan Province which now only has Kinmen County and Lienchiang County which are two islands of the rest of Fujian province controlled by the PRC and Guangdong Province which are really the South China Sea island.  There are appointed governors for these 3 provincial governments but they do not do much.  1994 was the first and only time ROC held an election for the  Governor of Taiwan Province.

Even under the DPP the role of Governor of Taiwan Province continues to exist.  If they get rid of it it would be the same as Taiwan Independence and the DPP regime can look forward to dealing with the PLA which will not end well for them.