ROC President and Legislative elections Jan 11 2020
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #350 on: June 06, 2020, 11:47:20 AM »

Ugh, that sort of thing always sucks.
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jaichind
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« Reply #351 on: June 06, 2020, 04:34:59 PM »

Now that Han has been recalled one can now track the scale of his fall and scale of DPP Prez Tsai's recovery.  In Feb 2019 when there started a draft Han movement within the KMT the Feb 2019 TVBS poll had

KMT Han  54
DPP Tsai   25

and

KMT Han  37
Ko           35
DPP Tsai   15

The DPP Tsai recovery is just amazing.  The only other recovery on this scale I have seen would be the Yelsin 1996 campaign.  Yelsin was polling in the single digits in early 1996 but came from  behind to win a comfortable victory in the Summer of 1996.

I was one of those few pro-KMT supporters that saw this danger even though I never expected the scale of DPP Tsai recovery was I thought in early 2019 Tsai had a shot at winning a narrow re-election even though I felt she was a underdog.  The reason why is because the KMT did nothing to deserve the 2018 local election victory which was purely based on comical self-goals by the DPP.  As soon as the DPP saw their peril in early 2019 they, as I feared, got their act together.   

I am not sure if there is an active political future for Han.  The 2019-2020 campaigns does mean that there is a sizable Han faction within the KMT so Han will be a person of influence although his record might be so tarnished as to not be a viable front line politician. 

Ironically Kaoshiung KMT speaker 許崑源(Shu Kuan-Yuan)'s suicide might produce some sympathy for Han, especially if the DPP makes light of this event and make uncharitable comments.

Han made many mistakes with the key one thinking Tsai was easy to beat and deciding to run the Prez stop in 2020.  Another error I feel is not talked about his blowing up relationship with 楊秋興 (Yang Chiu-Shin.)   楊秋興 (Yang Chiu-Shin) can best be described a ROC's Charlie Crist.  He was a key member of the New Tide faction and was a rising superstar in the DPP when he won the Kaohsiung County magistrate in 2001 and 2005.  Winning re-election in 2005 by a landslide was especially impressive since that was a KMT landslide year.  In 2010 Kaohsiung City and County were merged.  Both  楊秋興 (Yang Chiu-Shin) and fellow New Tide DPP Kaohsiung mayor 陳菊(Chen Chu) wanted the DPP nomination and in a DPP primary that 楊秋興 (Yang Chiu-Shin) considered unfair due to DPP Chairperson Tsai being biased in favor of 陳菊(Chen Chu), 陳菊(Chen Chu) won.  楊秋興 (Yang Chiu-Shin) bolted the DPP and ran as an independent (with PFP support) and ran such a strong campaign that he pushed the KMT candidate into 3rd place becoming the de facto Pan-Blue candidate in the race.  After the 2010 election 楊秋興 (Yang Chiu-Shin) joined the KMT and ran in 2014 as the KMT candidate to take on DPP incumbent 陳菊(Chen Chu) again and was crushed in a landslide in a DPP wave year.  楊秋興 (Yang Chiu-Shin) was asked if he wanted to run in 2018 and he indicated that his defeats in 2010 and 2014 showed he could not combine the KMT base and marginal DPP voters to win.  He recommended Han to run instead.  He then became a key organizer of the Han victory given his deep roots in Kaoshiung.  After Han got elected he was expect to be given a key position in the Han administration but was sidelined by Han.  In anger 楊秋興 (Yang Chiu-Shin) refused the minor role he was given and started to become a critic of Han.  By late 2019 his relationship with Han was so bad that he actually bolted from the KMT endorsed DPP Tsai (the same person he accused in 2010 of rigging the DPP Kaohsiung mayor primary againist him.)  The entire saga showed the pettiness and inability to broaden his coalition by Han and is symbolic of his fall from the threshold of peak political power.
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Continential
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« Reply #352 on: June 06, 2020, 07:01:02 PM »

Do you think Han would be recalled hadn’t he told voters to not turn up. I think he did it so that Greens in a Pan Blue family if they vote, they will be known as different
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jaichind
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« Reply #353 on: June 06, 2020, 07:12:22 PM »

Do you think Han would be recalled hadn’t he told voters to not turn up. I think he did it so that Greens in a Pan Blue family if they vote, they will be known as different

He knew he would be beaten in a straight Blue-Green battle given the current environment.   In the 2020 Prez race in Kaohsiung it was DPP Tsai 48.2% of VAP, KMT Han 26.8% of VAP and PFP Soong 2.4% of VAP.  These numbers tell him that his 39.1% of VAP support in the 2018 race has mostly dissipated.  His only hope is to deescalate the Blue-Green confration aspect of the race and hope the Pan-Green vote does not come out given fears over the virus.  Instead they came out in massive numbers.  If he told his supporters to come out to vote I suspect it will provoke some more marginal Pan-Green voters to come out end the result be something like 43% of VAP for recall and 25% of VAP against.
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jaichind
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« Reply #354 on: August 01, 2020, 02:06:30 PM »

I spent some time going district by district (including the aborigine seats) in the 2020 legislative elections to categorize every candidate to extract the vote share by bloc.

What I did was to count all KMT backed candidates (including independents or a candidate of another party) into KMT+ and same for DPP to get DPP+.  I then computed Pan-Blue and Pan-Green vote shares by adding int Minor Blue, Minor Green, Pan-Blue Ind and Pan-Green Ind vote shares.

What I got was

         KMT+  Minor Blue  Pan-Blue  Total Blue    DPP+  Minor Green Pan-Green Total Green   TPP+
2020 41.98%   1.55%      2.13%    45.65%   48.70%    2.06%         0.96%       51.72%   2.31%

If I do the same for 2016 2012 and 2008 I get

        KMT+  Minor Blue  Pan-Blue  Total Blue    DPP+  Minor Green Pan-Green Total Green 
2016 39.66%    3.41%     1.01%   44.08%     51.96%     2.73%         0.76%      55.45%
2012 49.46%    1.56%     2.41%   53.43%    44.53%     0.77%         1.08%      46.39%
2008 56.12%    0.89%     1.55%   58.56%    39.54%     0.88%         0.90%      41.31%

One can see that the KMT+ did make up a lot of ground since the debacle of 2016.  Namely the KMT was able to close the KMT+ vs DPP+ vote share  gap from 39.66%-51.96% to 41.98%-48.70%. The total Pan Blue vote share actually went up from 2016 despite TPP+ now being in the fray.   The 2020 KMT+ to DPP+ vote share gap is not that different from the 2012 DPP+ to KMT+ gap.  It seems clear that a lot of light Blue voters voted Tsai for Prez and TPP on the PR slate but voted Pan-Blue in the district race.  If true then as long as the DPP regime stumbles in the 2020-2024 period there is plenty of space for the KMT to make a comeback in 2024.  Main risk is the anti-DPP vote might shift toward TPP in 2024.
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Neptunium
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« Reply #355 on: August 15, 2020, 07:09:02 AM »
« Edited: August 15, 2020, 09:09:52 AM by Neptunium »

Congratulations!

End up the special election result a landslide victory of Chen Chi-mai, the DPP candidate.

Chen Chi-mai(陳其邁)    DPP(民主進步黨)    671,804 70.03%
Li Mei-jhen(李眉蓁)        KMT(中國國民黨)   248,478 25.90%
Wu Yi-jheng(吳益政)      TPP(台灣民眾黨)      38,960   4.06%  

By this margin this election is the election which DPP perform best since it was formed.

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jaichind
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« Reply #356 on: August 15, 2020, 07:28:32 AM »

Congratulations!
End up the special election result a landslide victory of Chen Chi-mai, the DPP candidate.

Chen Chi-mai(陳其邁)    DPP(民主進步黨)    671,804 70.03%
Li Mei-jhen(李眉蓁)        KMT(中國國民黨)   248,478 25.90%
Wu Yi-jheng(吳益政)      TPP(台灣民眾黨)      38,960   40.6%  

By this margin this election is the election which DPP perform best since it was formed.



With the result being a forgone conclusion turnout was fairly low with the KMT base turning out at an even lower rate than the DPP.  The KMT vote turned out around 41% of the vote in 2020 Prez vote while the DPP vote turn out around 61% of the 2020 Prez vote.  TPP which ran a PFP background candidate actually turned out 71% of the PFP vote in the 2020 Prez race. 
 
On the flip side if you take the 2020 PR vote for PFP and TPP in Kaohsiung then the TPP candidate only turned out around 20% of the 2020 PFP+TPP PR vote so this is not such a positive signal for TPP either.  The DPP did seem to have a goal of beating the 742K it achieved in the 2018 mayor race but with turnout this low that was just not possible.  All things equal pre-election projections seems to have Chen around 66% or so and he ended up with 70% so the drop in KMT turnout was clearly worse than expected.

What to do about Han during the campaign was a dilemma and in the end Han did campaign for Lee.  But it seems that was the worst of both worlds as it was too late rally the KMT base and it kept the anti-Han DPP base more engaged in the election.

There were talk of Han being able to run for KMT chairperson if Lee did well in this election (like breaking 40%) but this large defeat would be another blow for Han's ambitions for a political comeback.
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Continential
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« Reply #357 on: August 15, 2020, 07:45:42 PM »

Had Terry Gao had become the KMT presidential nominee in 2020, how bad would he have done?
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jaichind
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« Reply #358 on: August 15, 2020, 08:34:48 PM »

Had Terry Gao had become the KMT presidential nominee in 2020, how bad would he have done?

Good question.  My initial reaction is to say much better than Han although he would still lose given the circumstances in HK.  Guo clearly had more urban and youth appeal than Han it is possible that even Ko and PFP's Soong might have tactically endorsed him.   But by early 2019 the draft Han faction of the KMT was so convinced that Han HAD to become Prez of ROC that many threatened to sit out the 2020 race unless the KMT nominated Han.  In other words Han in 2020 was a lot like Trump in 2015-16.  While Han never say anything indicating that he would not endorse and support the KMT candidate if he was not nominated his supporters making threats that they will not turn out in 2020 unless Han won the KMT nomination.    In retrospect given the polarization that was created in 2020 election most likely this threat would end up being a bluff.  My guess the result would have been

Tsai  53
Guo  47

assuming both Ko and Soong sat out and tactically backed Guo.

A more interesting question would be if Ko had run with PFP's Soong and Guo tactic support.  The entire premise of the KMT nominating Han in early 2019 was that it was going to be a 3 way race and that Han has a low ceiling but a high floor would give the KMT the victory.  But the HK protests consolidated the Pan-Green vote behind Tsai and Ko seeing he could not win did not get into the race.  Then Han had to deal with the low ceiling aspect of his support.  Had Ko with his youth appeal run with PFP's Soong's support I think it would have been something like

Tsai 49
Han 33
Ko   18
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jaichind
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« Reply #359 on: August 16, 2020, 06:03:57 AM »

I have been mapping out the 2020 vote in the 319 wards, townships and villages in ROC try to get a sense of the relationship between the Prez, legislative PR and legislative district vote using regression analysis.  I already mapped out the Prez and PR vote.

My method is to divide up the 319  wards, townships and villages into Deep Blue, Light Blue, Light Green and Deep Green areas.   Deep Blue and Deep Green are mostly rural and are the KMT and DPP strongholds while Light Blue and Light Green more urban marginal areas.

I also broke the PR vote into, KMT, DPP, TPP, smaller Pan-Blue parties, smaller Pan-Green parties and looked at the Prez vote by Blue (Han and Soong) and Green (Tsai) voets.

Overall the vote was
Prez  57.13-42.87

PR
DPP            33.98
Pan-Green  16.38
TPP            11.22
Pan-Blue      6.37
KMT           33.36



For Deep Blue areas the vote was
Prez  46.41-53.59

PR
DPP            26.26
Pan-Green  13.04
TPP            10.90
Pan-Blue      7.58
KMT           42.22

Using regression I conclude the Prez vote by PR was

DPP              96-4
Pan-Green    95-5
TPP              70-30
Pan-Blue        5-95
KMT               3-98


For Light Blue areas the vote was
Prez  55.09-44.91

PR
DPP            30.92
Pan-Green  15.31
TPP            12.86
Pan-Blue      6.77
KMT           34.14

Using regression I conclude the Prez vote by PR was

DPP              95-5
Pan-Green    95-5
TPP              63-37
Pan-Blue      20-80
KMT               5-95


For Light Green areas the vote was
Prez  59.44-40.56

PR
DPP            35.62
Pan-Green  15.31
TPP            11.45
Pan-Blue      6.06
KMT           31.55

Using regression I conclude the Prez vote by PR was

DPP              95-5
Pan-Green    95-5
TPP              72-28
Pan-Blue      20-80
KMT               5-95


For Deep Green areas the vote was
Prez  65.98-34.02

PR
DPP            41.80
Pan-Green  16.38
TPP             9.80
Pan-Blue      5.28
KMT           26.73

Using regression I conclude the Prez vote by PR was

DPP              95-5
Pan-Green    98-2
TPP              77-23
Pan-Blue      27-73
KMT               5-95


What we get from this is
a) TPP stronger in the more urban light blue and light green urban areas as expected
b TPP lean Tsai in Prez vote is not a surprise.  The Pan-Blue part of the TPP PR vote voted TPP as they were turned off by Han
c) Tsai had cross partisan appeal by eating into the smaller party Pan-Blue PR vote
d) The Deep green smaller party Pan-Blue PR and TPP PR heavier Tsai lean shows the scale of the failure of the Han strategy.  Han was suppose to have rural appeal due to his personality especially in Deep Green areas.  Instead it worked the other way around.
e) In the end the DPP approach of somewhat embracing gay marriage in 2018 was a plus.  A reluctant DPP embrace of gay marriage cost it dear in 2018 as its conservative rural base defected in  a period where the sentiment was more pro-unification and the unification-independence issue has less salience.  But by paying this price the DPP got dividends in 2020 when the sentiment shifted quickly toward independence due to HK protests which got the old DPP rural conservative base to come home  plus marginal urban youth liberal voters turned out in droves to vote Tsai given her commitment to gay marriage.
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MoreThanPolitics
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« Reply #360 on: January 06, 2021, 07:14:03 AM »
« Edited: January 07, 2021, 12:49:00 PM by MoreThanPolitics »

Bumping this as we approach a new set of recall elections in Taiwan. After former Kaohsiung mayor Han Kuo-yu was recalled last June, supporters of Han vowed to recall some of Han's biggest critics in revenge.

This 16th, residents of Chungli District, Taoyuan City (桃園市中壢區) will decide the fate of DPP city councilor Wang Hao-yu (王浩宇), a former Green Party member who did not join the DPP until last year. Wang is known for his controversial statements and actions, such as sneaking into a school during school hours, doxxing supporters of Han Kuo-yu, falsely accusing an NPP volunteer of drug possession, and insulting aborigines just recently.

His attitude towards the DPP has completely changed. over the years. In 2013, as a Green Party member, he famously wrote on Facebook, "F**k, the DPP is full of degenerates!", yet he frequently bootlicks Taoyuan City mayor Cheng Wen-tsan (鄭文燦) of the DPP after joining the party.

His behavior on PTT, the country's most popular Internet forum, is also highly criticized. He is best known for making offensive sexual comments and threatening PTT users to delete content unfavorable to him. As a result, he got perma-banned by the moderators, and was nicknamed "Voldemort" by netizens.

Back to the election: the recall is supported by KMT, TPP and most pan-blue citizens. The DPP urged voters to "give him one more chance", despite telling Wang to "mind his own words". Wang will be recalled if more than 78,786 (1/4 of Chungli District's electorate) voted to recall him, while exceeding the number of anti-recall votes.

Chungli District itself is quite blue -- Tsai Ing-wen only received 51.46% of the vote there in her 2020 re-election bid compared to 57.13% countrywide, making it 5.67% more KMT than the country. In fact, Chungli District is more blue than Kaohsiung City is green in 2020! (Although this might be due to Han's presence on the ballot.)

Han and Soong combined a total of 119,401 votes in 2020. Assuming some pan-green supporters also voted to recall him, it all depends on voter turnout. Suppose 70% voted to recall him and 30% voted not to (similar to what Huang Kuo-chang (黃國昌) received in 2017, but he survived because of low turnout), if turnout exceeds 35.71%, he is finished.
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jaichind
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« Reply #361 on: January 06, 2021, 07:40:59 AM »

Another "revenge" recall is for 黃捷(Huang) who was elected on the NPP ticket in Kaohsiung assembly election but now independent.

These recalls will go nowhere.  The vote against them will have to be 25% of the electorate.  I doubt with the core KMT and TPP voters in those districts they can get to 25% of the electorate.  At a certain level 王浩宇(Wang) might prefer to be recalled.  Taoyuan is not really a good fit for him and if he is recalled he might switch to Taipei City in 2022 City/County assembly elections.  

The only way these recalls can get to their target is if local DPP assembly members/faction might turn out their voters to oust these Pan-Green "allies".   The basic idea is to get rid of them as competition for the Pan-Green vote in the 2022 city/county assembly elections.
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MoreThanPolitics
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« Reply #362 on: January 06, 2021, 09:09:37 AM »

Another "revenge" recall is for 黃捷(Huang) who was elected on the NPP ticket in Kaohsiung assembly election but now independent.

These recalls will go nowhere.  The vote against them will have to be 25% of the electorate.  I doubt with the core KMT and TPP voters in those districts they can get to 25% of the electorate.  At a certain level 王浩宇(Wang) might prefer to be recalled.  Taoyuan is not really a good fit for him and if he is recalled he might switch to Taipei City in 2022 City/County assembly elections.  

The only way these recalls can get to their target is if local DPP assembly members/faction might turn out their voters to oust these Pan-Green "allies".   The basic idea is to get rid of them as competition for the Pan-Green vote in the 2022 city/county assembly elections.

I doubt the DPP would let its version of Han Kuo-yu run for office again. If Wang somehow carpetbags to Taipei, he will be forced to quit the DPP and lose badly, even in Shilin/Datong Districts. Why would anyone vote for a sociopath when you have so many sane pan-green candidates running?

Regarding Huang Jie, all DPP officials in Fongshan District just stood in solidarity with her (Source (in Chinese)).

There is a rumor that Huang would join the DPP in the next few years so that she could run for Hsu Chih-chieh 許智傑 's Legislative Yuan seat when he retires in 2028. As far as I know, Huang and Hsu are often seen together in community events since Huang was first elected in 2018, when she was still an NPP member.

P.S. Huang is really the hottest politician in Taiwan in my opinion. Did I just give myself a free trip to Horny Jail?
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jaichind
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« Reply #363 on: January 06, 2021, 09:45:34 AM »

It was never an issue of the national of county level DPP that would want these two to be ousted in a recall election but more their local DPP rivals acting on their own with their network of supporters coming out to get rid of their rival for the Pan-Green vote in 2022.  I doubt even if any such voters exists it will amount to very many people.   The KMT and TPP are wasting their time on this revenge recall when it only benefits their Pan-Green rivals in the same district anyway even if they somehow exist.  I think this is most about letting the hardcore pro-Han voter let off some steam and the KMT is just not getting in their way and tacitly supporting it
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MoreThanPolitics
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« Reply #364 on: January 15, 2021, 10:05:13 PM »

Polls have started in Chungli, Taoyuan until 4pm (UTC+8). A gentle reminder: if Wang received more than 81,940 "agree" votes while exceeding the number of "disagree" votes, he will be recalled.

If he survives, the electorate is not allowed to recall him again for the rest of his term.

Map (hopefully) incoming after the election.
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jaichind
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« Reply #365 on: January 15, 2021, 10:20:39 PM »

25% of the electorate has to vote to recall Wang and exceed those vote against recall.

According to Liberty Times

https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/breakingnews/3412665

in 3 voting booth in NeiLi  High school turnout is already 11% from 8am to 9:30am.  Voting will be from 8am to 4pm.  To be fair there are 233 voting booths so this is a tiny sample.  On the other hand NeiLi High school is not situated in the most pro-Blue areas of Chungli.

I still think most likely the recall will fail but it might be close if this sort of turnout is representative of the intensity of the anti-Wang coalition. 

If Wang does get recalled it would more likely be the fact that he is just too high profiled at the national level and not looking into local bread and butter issues which would be his job as City Assembly member.  Wang is often called "City Assembly At Large" for his reputation to get involved in politics of all counties and cities and not just Taoyuan.
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« Reply #366 on: January 15, 2021, 10:41:53 PM »
« Edited: January 16, 2021, 12:13:49 AM by MoreThanPolitics »

Chou Ren-te (邱仁德), CEO of the "Recall Wang" headquarters, is ward chief of Xinyi Village (信義里) and Wang's uncle. He wrote on Facebook a few days ago that he would resign if Wang doesn't get recalled.

Source (in Chinese)
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« Reply #367 on: January 16, 2021, 03:00:00 AM »
« Edited: January 16, 2021, 03:30:47 AM by MoreThanPolitics »

Polls are now closed in Chungli, Taoyuan.

Live for those interested: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UcKP6p05v3k&feature=youtu.be (in Chinese)
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« Reply #368 on: January 16, 2021, 05:17:44 AM »
« Edited: January 16, 2021, 05:33:47 AM by MoreThanPolitics »

Jesus Christ! As of 6:13 pm, over 84,000 Chungli voters have voted to recall Wang, exceeding the 81,940 vote threshold. He is also the first ever city/county councilor in Taiwan to lose a recall vote. Good riddance Voldemort!

Tbh, if I were eligible to vote, I would have voted to recall him but not for Huang Jie.
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« Reply #369 on: January 16, 2021, 06:09:19 AM »

The Taoyuan City Election Commission has now released village-level results: https://web.cec.gov.tw/tyec/cms/latestNews/34882

Map coming (hopefully) before the end of the day.
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jaichind
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« Reply #370 on: January 16, 2021, 06:43:48 AM »

Result was quite close.  It is 81,940 votes target to recall to clear the 25% of electorate threshold.  The result was Yes 84,582 Yes 7182 No.

The 2018 Taoyuan City assembly results in the 7th district was

KMT         23,056                elected
KMT         16,648                elected
GP           16,292  (Wang)    elected
DPP          11,380                elected
DPP          11,328                elected
KMT         10,932                elected
KMT          10,824               elected
Ind(DPP)   10,227               elected
KMT          10,128               elected
NPB           9,854                elected  (Light Blue KMT ally)
NPB            9,712                elected  (Light Blue KMT ally)
KMT           9,508
DPP           9,300
DPP           9,092
DPP           4,553
Ind(DPP)   3,599
FA             3,396                            (Feminist Alliance)
NPP           2,753
Ind(PFP)    2,614
Ind(DPP)   1,976
Ind(KMT)     627

If we group the votes by Blue (KMT), Light Blue (Ind(KMT) NPB, Ind(PFP), Light Green (Ind(DPP), FA), Wang (GP), Green (DPP), Deep Green(NPP) we get

Blue            81,096
Light Blue    22,807
Light Green  19,198
Wang          16,292
Green          45,653
Deep Green  2,753

Even if we accept the the Blue turnout will be a significant part of its 2018 turnout it is clear a good part of the Light Blue, and even some of the Light Green and Green voters came out to vote against Wang.

Either organized or unorganized it was the the anti-Wang Light Green and Green voters that came out to vote against Wang that produced this unexpected recall of Wang.
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jaichind
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« Reply #371 on: January 16, 2021, 06:46:14 AM »

The good news for the DPP in the Taoyuan 7th district is that they will now for sure gain seats in the 2022 City assembly election with most of the Wang 2018 vote now flowing the various other DPP candidates that were defeated in 2018.  All the more reason for some of the DPP candidates and their factional organization to perhaps passively and covertly come out to vote to recall Wang.

For Wang this recall now frees him up to run in Taipei or New Taipei City assembly elections in 2022 and perhaps even run as a MP in 2024.  He is not allowed to run in  Taoyuan 7th district now he was recalled.  Just like Han cannot run in 2022 for Kaoshiung mayor now that he was recalled in 2020 but can and likely run in another city/county in 2022 if Han wants a political comeback.
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jaichind
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« Reply #372 on: January 16, 2021, 07:21:20 AM »

A look at Chungli (Taoyuan 7th district) election results in 2020 which was a high turnout election when compared to 2018

Prez
DPP                       126,600
KMT                      107,499
PFP                         11,902

PR vote

Deep Blue Minor      3,789
KMT                      91,938
Light Blue Minor     12,865
TPP                       29,420
Light Green Minor       143
GP                        11,169
DPP                      69,400
Deep Green Minor 25,816

In 2020 the TPP PR vote clearly voted Tsai in the Prez line but this time the 2020 TPP PR vote many of which most likely voted Light Blue and partly Light Green in 2018 City Assembly election this time turned against Wang. 

If you just used the 2020 KMT and Deep Blue Minor PR vote from 2020 as the basis to recall Wang that would not be enough given the fact that turnout will be lower this time.  Having 2020 TPP PR vote turning out along with some 2020 Light Blue PR vote along with some DPP defectors it seems did the trick.  I suspect some 2020 GP PR voters came out to vote Wang out as well as they see Wang as a traitor who was elected on GP in 2014 and 2018 Taoyuan City assembly but defected to DPP after the 2020 ROC general election.
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jaichind
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« Reply #373 on: January 16, 2021, 07:25:27 AM »

Wang's recall is good revenge for a family friend 高成炎(Gao) who was the founder of the GP but had retired from politics.  He came back in 2020 to head the GP PR list to try to get GP a PR seat but ultimately failed.  But Wang defected from GP to DPP after the 2020 election which I am sure angered Gao since Wang made his name in politics partly on his line of "the DPP is almost as bad as KMT."   Gao was and is still pretty close to my uncle.  I have not seen him in a while but I am sure he is happy with this result even if it came at the hands of KMT which he views as his political enemy.
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MoreThanPolitics
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« Reply #374 on: January 16, 2021, 09:39:44 AM »
« Edited: January 17, 2021, 04:33:16 AM by MoreThanPolitics »




Left: 2020 Presidential election in Chungli District, Taoyuan City:
(DPP) Tsai Ing-wen: 51.46% (126,600 votes)
(KMT) Han Kuo-yu: 43.70% (107,499 votes)

Right: 2021 Taoyuan City Council recall vote:
Agree: 25.81% of electorate (84,582 votes) (92.23% of all valid votes)
Disagree: 2.17% of electorate (7,128 votes) (7.77% of all valid votes)
Turnout: 28.14%

After the recall threshold was lowered to 25% in 2016, it is much easier to recall politicians now compared to 10-20 years ago. It was used to be 50%!

Earlier today, the CEC has announced that there will be no by-election or appointment to fill Wang's seat, leaving it vacant until the rest of the term (December 24, 2022).
Source (in Chinese)
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