ROC President and Legislative elections Jan 11 2020
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jaichind
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« Reply #325 on: January 12, 2020, 07:07:49 PM »

It seems the DPP will try to start an effort to recall Han.  My initial guess is that they will overplaying their hand.  After Han's shock upset in 2018 in winning the mayor of Kaohsiung he overplayed his hand and allowed himself to be drafted to the be the KMT Prez candidate figuring the KMT is sure to win in 2020.  Instead the Kaoshiung felt betrayed for Han trying to abandon them right after winning also in many ways felt that they "already taught DPP a lesson in 2018" with the result being a crushing Tsai landslide in Kaoshiung.  But if the DPP tries to call Han they risk the same mistake that the Tsai vote in Kaoshuing means a vote to remove Han as mayor.  I suspect voters in Kaoshiung will feel: we did not want to feel like we were used so we taught Han a lesson.  Now he has been taught a lesson let him get on with his job and there is no need for yet another election.  We can just wait until 2022.
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jaichind
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« Reply #326 on: January 19, 2020, 10:28:36 AM »

I was able to do some analysis based on township level data.   I was able to break out the results by urban, towns, rural townships.

2020 Prez Pan-Blue vote (change from 2016)

Overall    42.87 (-1.01)
Urban      43.46 (-1.67)
Town       43.31 (-0.27)
Rural       41.19 (+0.22)

So the shift of Pan-Blues to a more rural lean since 2012 continues.  The urban pan-Blue lean is the weakest since 1996.

On the PR vote side it is (and change from 2016)

Overall
Pan-Greens    49.05 (-7.53)
Pan-Blues       39.73 (-3.69)
TPP                11.22

Urban
Pan-Greens    48.39 (-7.15)
Pan-Blues       39.80 (-4.66)
TPP                11.81

Town
Pan-Greens    48.47 (-8.10)
Pan-Blues       40.61 (-2.82)
TPP                10.91

Rural
Pan-Greens    51.00 (-8.16)
Pan-Blues       39.09 (-1.75)
TPP                 9.91

It seems in urban areas TPP ate deep into the Pan-Blue base while in town and rural areas the TPP ate into both Pan-Blues and Pan-Greens.  The TPP PR vote ended being having a urban lean less than what I would have expected but it is clear that TPP PR vote is much more high educated and would be have an anti-Han bias.

Assuming that the Pan-Green PR vote voted DPP Tsai and Pan-Blue PR vote voted KMT Han or PFP Soong, around 72% of the TPP PR vote went with DPP Tsai.  In urban areas that ratio would be around 69% in town areas that ratio would be around 75% and in rural areas that ratio would be around 79%.
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jaichind
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« Reply #327 on: January 19, 2020, 10:30:45 AM »

It seem DPP high command is fairly lukewarm on the Han recall effort, agreeing with my view that doing so would be overplaying the DPP hand and it is better to wait until 2022 to take Han out.  The Kaohsiung Pan-Green base have rejected this view and is going  ahead with recall effort with the recall vote most likely taking place in the summer.
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jaichind
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« Reply #328 on: January 19, 2020, 10:34:10 AM »

The TPP have clarified its Mainland policy as "Peace and status quo" and "The two sides are part of the same family" which clearly puts them in the lean Pan-Blue camp.  On this basis there seem to be signs that KMT and TPP will form an alliance at the legislative level.  KMT and TPP doing this is a recognition that 2016 was not a fluke and the era of Pan-Blue domination is over and has been replaced with a likely Pan-Green domination.  That just means all non-Pan-Green parties will have to unite to fight off against the DPP. Ko is most likely hoping at in 2024 he can be a Pan-Blue-TPP grand alliance candidate to take on the Pan-Greens.   
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jaichind
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« Reply #329 on: January 21, 2020, 03:45:29 PM »

One of the main reason for DPP Tsai's landslide is that she is now seen as the moderate on the Mainland China issue (despite people in her party moving more toward the fringe)

In May 2016 when asked what was DPP Tsai's position on Unification-Independence it came out
Independence    61.9
Status Quo        10.6
Unification           4.0

Same poll in Jan 2020 it has
Independence    32.7
Status Quo        53.3
Unification          0.6

 

Which means that DPP Tsai has successful sold herself as the candidate for Status Quo and sold KMT Han as the candidate of Unification.  Of course she was also able to define Status Quo as anti-Unification which is a major victory for the DPP narrative.

We in the pro-unification camp have our work cut out for us and this will be a several decade battle to shift the tide back.  
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jaichind
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« Reply #330 on: May 15, 2020, 05:02:24 PM »

With 5 days to go before Tsai is to be sworn in for her second term in May 20th as ROC Prez, the DPP did another flip flop from a key campaign promise.  

The DPP promised to push for the removal of the clause "為因應國家統一前之需要" (Due to the need for our national reunification) in the 1991 Constitutional Amendment  which sets the goal of reunification with Mainland China as the law of the land in the ROC Constitution.  The DPP had a goal of pushing this through before Tsai's inauguration.  The KMT pretty much said "we think this is a very bad idea but we are not going to veto it and save the DPP from its own stupidity if the DPP is willing to put it forward, we want the DPP  to own the result of doing this and deal with the PLA by itself."

https://www.president.gov.tw/Page/95

Is the link to this Amendment which is on the ROC Presidential office website

In the end the DPP choose to back down and withdrew their proposed amendment.  We have seen this movie before where the DPP demand the Referendum law allows a vote for Taiwan Independence and when the KMT said "Ok, we will not block it" the DPP them does a flip flop and withdraws the proposal. What the DPP want is to make the KMT the arm of the PRC by having the KMT block things that might anger the PRC.  The KMT does not play that game and the DPP pretty much have to pull back.

All signs are the DPP radical faction was trying to push this and in the end the moderate faction led by Tsai, after getting some warnings directly from the PRC, decided to pull back rather than risk an direct confrontation with the PRC.

So after all that hoopla the office ROC Constitution which is the highest law in the land will continue have the goal of Chinese Reunification enshrined within it.    And the DPP continues to be shown up as chickens on the issue of Taiwan Independence in face of the powerful PLA which will only get stronger from here.
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jaichind
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« Reply #331 on: May 24, 2020, 08:03:22 AM »

Radical pro-independence TSP (Taiwan Statebuilding Party) (台灣基進) poll on Han reacall election on June 13th



Certain to vote 34.8%
Could vote       21.1%
Will not vote    33.8%
DK                  10.6%

Support recall
Yes                 54.4%
No                  26.5%
DK                  19.0%

The threshold for the recall to be valid is 25% turnout.  It used to be 50% but was changed back in 2016 to 25%.  It is clear there is an anti-Han majority.  The only question is will turnout cross 25%. Han already called on his supporters not to vote in the recall in an attempt to get turnout below 25%.  Based on this poll this is unlikely to work.

A recent TVBS poll has turnout intentions at 39% certain to turnout and 11% maybe to turnout which mostly mirrors this poll.

So I would say there is a 80% chance that the recall of Han will succeed.  So Han getting into the 2020 Prez race not only have him lose in a landslide but end up losing his seat as mayor of Kaoshiung which he won in a shocking victory in 2018.  This most likely means it will be 2-3 election cycles before the KMT have a shot at retaking Kaoshiung.
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Continential
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« Reply #332 on: May 24, 2020, 08:08:48 AM »

I heard that the KMT are at a all time low, and should elections somehow be held today, the KMT would do worse then 2016. Is that true?
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jaichind
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« Reply #333 on: May 24, 2020, 08:15:08 AM »

I heard that the KMT are at a all time low, and should elections somehow be held today, the KMT would do worse then 2016. Is that true?

Totally true.  Due to the perception of an effective response to the virus outbreak DPP Prez Tsai approval rating are well in to the 60% which has a clear impact on how the KMT polls.  The good news for the KMT is that in mid to late 2016 they were in the same boat and then a bunch of unforced errors by DPP and Tsai in 2017 and 2018 produced a significant KMT victory in 2018 local elections.  I am hopefully of the same thing taking place 2021 and 2022 although I am fearful that the afterglow of the effective regime response to the virus will help Tsai and DPP well into 2021.  

The good news is that DPP infighting and jostling for 2022 local elections and 2024 Prez elections are already rising.  In 2008 it was clear that the 2-term incumbent  DPP was going lose just like in 2016 it was clear that the 2-term incumbent KMT was going to lose so intra-party conflict within by ruling parties (2008 DPP and 2016 KMT) was bad but not disastrous.   Assuming 2024 seems winnable for the DPP (which for now it does) 2024 might look like 2000 KMT where a 2-term KMT regime still was at worse even odds to win in 2000 which in term lead to a massive KMT civil war and a split in the KMT in 2000.  I am hoping for the same for DPP in 2024.
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PSOL
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« Reply #334 on: May 24, 2020, 12:06:55 PM »

What fault lines are even present within the DPP to cause factional infighting? I thought Taiwanese parties weren’t factional in the ideological sense, and that personal jostling was only present in the KMT?
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jaichind
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« Reply #335 on: May 25, 2020, 02:21:09 PM »

What fault lines are even present within the DPP to cause factional infighting? I thought Taiwanese parties weren’t factional in the ideological sense, and that personal jostling was only present in the KMT?

On paper all DPP factions were abolished back in 2006 but they continued in de facto terms.  The largest and most powerful is the New Tide faction (新潮流系) whose organisational methods are quite Leninist which makes them so powerful.   The remaining factions tend to be centered around key political leaders.  There is a key faction centered around Prez Tsai called the Ing faction(英派) named after the Ing of Tsai Ing-Wen.  There is another faction centered around current PM Su called Su faction (蘇系) and another faction centered around ex-PM Hsieh called Hsieh faction (謝系).  There is a smaller faction called Green Alliance (綠色連線) which is the remnant of the old Formasa faction (美麗島系) which was the largest DPP faction back in the 1990s.   There is also a small faction WUFI faction(台獨聯盟) based on exiled Taiwan Independence activists during the 1970s-1980s that since returned to ROC in the 1990s.  And there is a faction around ex-DPP Prez Chen called (One country one side Alliance)一邊一國連線.  These last two factions clearly take a radical line on Taiwan Independence.

In practical terms DPP factional conflict is New Tide vs everyone else.  New Tide became powerful based on their careful strategy of putting growing their faction than putting someone from their faction to become the DPP Prez candidate.  Most pro-DPP media are split between pro- and anti- New Tide.  My Pan-Green relatives span quiet wide from an ideological point of view but they are all united in being against New Tide "because of the way they do things."  In 2024 it seems the New Tide faction might try to reach for the top prize and get someone from their faction to become the DPP Prez candidate.

That said one enduring strength of the DPP is that they are always able to put their intra-factional battles behind them once they are over and unite to take on the KMT, at least at the national level. The 2020 Prez election campaign is an example of this were DPP was able to united the pro-Tsai and pro-Lai forces and win a solid victory over the divided Pan-Blue camp despite a deleterious 2018 local election showing.      At the county legislative level this does not often hold and DPP civil wars there are almost as bad as KMT ones with equally disruptive results. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #336 on: June 02, 2020, 05:20:25 AM »
« Edited: June 02, 2020, 06:53:07 AM by jaichind »

First real post-Jan 2020 election TVBS poll with party ID has things fairly similar to May 2016.

Back in a TVBS poll in May 2016 party ID were:

DPP    26%
KMT   22%
NPP     8%
Other   7% (PFP, NP, TSU etc et) which has a more pro-Blue lean

A May 2020 TBVS poll which has party ID has it now as:

DPP   24%
KMT   21%
NPP     7%
TPP     6%
Other 13% (PFP, NP, TSU, TSP etc etc) which will have a more pro-Green lean due to TSP surge

There has been a TSP surge recently so I suspect the Other part of the poll will have a more Pan-Green lean vesus 2016

Sill overall the claim that the KMT has completely melted down after its disastrous 2020 Prez election showing is overblown and that its level of support is similar to May 2016 where DPP Prez were also in a honeymoon period.   It does not seem NPP TPP or TSP has been come close to displacing the KMT as the main anti-DPP alternative.  Any DPP unforced error going forward will accrue benefit mainly to the KMT just like the 2017-2018 period.  

DPP Tsai clearly messed up in 2017-2018 and paid heavily in the 2018 elections.  It is not clear that history will repeat itself but it could.  Time will tell.
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« Reply #337 on: June 02, 2020, 06:46:10 AM »

Tsai Ing-wen's strategy is amazing, shifting the DPP to a Status Quo, and the KMT becomes more Pro-CCP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #338 on: June 02, 2020, 05:15:57 PM »

Tsai Ing-wen's strategy is amazing, shifting the DPP to a Status Quo, and the KMT becomes more Pro-CCP.


That's true, although what is more impressive is that she was able to shift toward the center and take over the "status quo" spectrum from the KMT while beating back the radical pro-independence opponents in the Pan-Green camp at the same time in the 2019-2020 election cycle.  Painting the PRC as a clear and present danger was clearly part of the strategy that worked great for her.
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« Reply #339 on: June 02, 2020, 06:17:24 PM »

Jaichind, could you go into further detail on the differences between these factions? Are they purely personality based or is it ideological? Thank you.
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jaichind
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« Reply #340 on: June 03, 2020, 12:22:08 PM »

Jaichind, could you go into further detail on the differences between these factions? Are they purely personality based or is it ideological? Thank you.

Back in the 1990s when there were two large factions: Formosa faction (美麗島系) and New Tide faction (新潮流系) it was New Tide faction (新潮流系) that was more radical on Taiwan Independence and  Formosa faction (美麗島系) was more moderate on Taiwan Independence. 

These days other than WUFI faction(台獨聯盟) and One country one side Alliance(一邊一國連線) are more radical on Taiwan Independence the other larger factions are mostly the same from a policy point of view. On a county by county basis different factions might be more radical on Taiwan Independence but it is not consistent. 

Historically Su faction (蘇系) tend to be aligned with New Tide faction (新潮流系)  and has been hostile to Hsieh faction (謝系) and  Ing faction(英派).  These days the New Tide faction (新潮流系) is so powerful that PM Su and Prez Tsai who were enemies in the 2012 DPP primary have now buried the hatchet.  It really is becoming de facto  New Tide faction (新潮流系)  versus everyone else. 
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ericpolitico
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« Reply #341 on: June 04, 2020, 01:49:15 AM »

I wanna know more about Chiang Wan-an, great grandson of Chiang Kai-shek and Member of Legislative Yuan from Taipei III

1. How's his reputation and popularity?
2. Is he possible future face of KMT? Will he run for 2022 Taipei Mayoral Election or 2024 Taiwan Presidential Election?

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jaichind
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« Reply #342 on: June 04, 2020, 10:46:48 AM »

I wanna know more about Chiang Wan-an, great grandson of Chiang Kai-shek and Member of Legislative Yuan from Taipei III

1. How's his reputation and popularity?
2. Is he possible future face of KMT? Will he run for 2022 Taipei Mayoral Election or 2024 Taiwan Presidential Election?



One of my cousins actually knew him from middle school since they were in the same class.  Anyway, his father 蔣孝嚴(Chiang Hsiao-yen) was actually the illegitimate son of Chiang Kai-Shek's son and also ROC Prez Chiang Ching-kuo.  it was only in 2005 that when 蔣孝嚴(Chiang Hsiao-yen) changed his last name and t Chiang Wan-an to Chiang to acknowledge a well know fact they are of the Chiang family. 

 蔣孝嚴(Chiang Hsiao-yen)  was elected MP for Taipei 3rd district  in 2008 but was defeated in the 2012 KMT primary.  His son  Chiang Wan-an won back this seat in the 2016 KMT primary and went on to win in 2016 and 2020.  Taipei 3rd is clearly trending DPP as part of the greater Tsai appeal to urban upper middle income class that are now more and more fearful of economic competition from the PRC which is quickly moving up the economic totem pole.   Chiang Wan-an has done a good job to maintain the KMT vote in Taipei 3rd and speaks to his personal appeal there.

 Chiang Wan-an was a top candidate to be the KMT candidate for Taipei mayor for 2018 local election.  But he backed out thinking that Ko was not beatable.  The KMT ran a 2nd tier candidate Ding and lost to Ko by around 1000 votes.  In retrospect if Chiang had run he would most likely have beaten Ko changing the entire history of the 2020 election cycle where Ko would for sure run in 2020  and the result most likely be something like Tsai 44 Han 39 Ko 17 and would have reduced the scale of the KMT defeat. 

In many ways Chiang is considered the front runner for the 2022 Taipei mayor race.  But I suspect him chickening out in 2018 might have damaged him as it showed him not will to take one for the party.  The DPP in theory could not beat Chiang in 2022 but it is said that the DPP might run 陳時中(Chen Shih-chung) who is the DPP Minister of Health and Welfare who many credit for defeating the virus in ROC.  Chen's popularity will decline by 2022 but Chiang for sure is not a shoe in for 2022.
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ericpolitico
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« Reply #343 on: June 04, 2020, 10:33:53 PM »

Thanks for the great explanations. I think Wan-an is a politician to be watched like Shinjiro Koizumi in Japan.

In your opinion, who will be potential candidates from DPP, KMT, and minor parties for 2024 Presidential Election?

I understand for DPP is Vice President William Lai and for minor parties are Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je.

In addition, how's the future of KMT? I have been reading many articles that KMT is dying and DPP may rule for many years. However, i highly doubt it. As we all know, politics are elastic - "pendulum swing"
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jaichind
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« Reply #344 on: June 05, 2020, 07:52:26 AM »

Thanks for the great explanations. I think Wan-an is a politician to be watched like Shinjiro Koizumi in Japan.

In your opinion, who will be potential candidates from DPP, KMT, and minor parties for 2024 Presidential Election?

I understand for DPP is Vice President William Lai and for minor parties are Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je.

In addition, how's the future of KMT? I have been reading many articles that KMT is dying and DPP may rule for many years. However, i highly doubt it. As we all know, politics are elastic - "pendulum swing"

Chiang Wan-an does have name recognition due to his family lineage but that also hurts his ability grow his electoral base as his great grandfather and grandfather are also well known Chinese nationalists.   He tries to make up for it by being more anti-PRC than most of the KMT but I doubt he can go higher than mayor of Taipei.  There is this dynamic within the KMT where politicians with Mainland backgrounds tend to be more anti-PRC (and stay away from doing business on the mainland) versus KMT politicians with  Taiwan Province backgrounds tends to take a more pro-PRC position and have no issues getting close with key CCP functionaries.  Really comes down to a perception of people that have lived in Taiwan Province for generations are less likely to "sell out" to the PRC.

As for 2024 for DPP it will be VP 賴淸德 (William Lai) vs Taoyuan mayor 鄭文燦(Cheng Wen-tsan).   Tsai clearly favors Cheng over Lai especially when Lai tried to take her down in 2019 DPP Prez primary.  What is intresting is that both Lai and Cheng are from the New Tide faction so I suspect a third non-New Tide faction candidate will also emerge leading to a 3 way battle.

On the KMT side one cannot rule out that Han trying to make a comeback after his most likely recall this upcoming weekend.  Former New Taipei mayor and KMT chairman and failed 2016 KMT candidate 朱立倫 (Eric Chu) is also likely to run.  Given that these two are failed candidates of 2016 and 2020 I suspect the KMT will converge on current New Taipei mayor 侯友宜 (Hou You-yi) who himself is a protege of Chu.

 Hou is to some extent "the KMT's Tsai" but in reverse.  Tsai came actually from a pro-KMT background with strong urban appeal and came in as a dark horse to lead the DPP after a massive KMT landslide in 2008 with a strong shift of the urban vote to the KMT.  Tsai was able to appeal to marginal pro-KMT voters.  Hou actually came from a lean-DPP background and has the ability to appeal to marginal DPP voters  as well as has good rural appeal.  One the rural front Han already paved the way for that as he performed relatively better in rural areas than urban areas when compared to old KMT vote share benchmarks.  If KMT nominates Hou it will fit my narrative that we are continuing the reversal of the 1996-2016 trend of the urban vote shifting to KMT while the rural vote shifting to DPP and going the other way around and then converge to a world similar to the early 1990s  where DPP was stronger in urban areas and KMT was stronger in rural areas.  The surge of the PRC economy to the point where they are now competing head to head with the ROC most advanced economic sectors has a lot to do with this.

As "KMT is finished."  After 2000 when the KMT was defeated for the first time the CW was that loss of incumbency would mean that the DPP would be in power for 20+ years.  It was not true as Ma lead the KMT to a landslide victory in 2008.  After Ma's re-election the CW is that the Ma coalition would give the KMT a long term advantage and the DPP will be locked out for a while.  That was untrue as in 2016 DPP Tsai came back in a landslide victory.  Any prediction of the demise of the KMT today will also be unwise. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #345 on: June 05, 2020, 09:18:24 PM »

Kaohsiung recall election is tomorrow.  For Han to be recalled more voters have to vote against Han than for (a certainty since Han has called for his supporters not to vote) and the total vote againist Han to be more than 25% of VAP which is around 575K.    In the 2020 Prez election DPP Tsai won around 1.1 million votes so as long as half the pan-Green vote turns out Han will be recalled which at this stage seems fairly likely.  I would put the recall chances at around 80%.  Most polling has around around 35% of VAP willing to come out to vote and vote against Han.  Even if that over-estimates turnout I recon around 30% of VAP should come out to vote against Han and most likely another 3% of VAP will come out to vote in favor of Han.
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« Reply #346 on: June 05, 2020, 09:56:20 PM »

Kaohsiung recall election is tomorrow.  For Han to be recalled more voters have to vote against Han than for (a certainty since Han has called for his supporters not to vote) and the total vote againist Han to be more than 25% of VAP which is around 575K.    In the 2020 Prez election DPP Tsai won around 1.1 million votes so as long as half the pan-Green vote turns out Han will be recalled which at this stage seems fairly likely.  I would put the recall chances at around 80%.  Most polling has around around 35% of VAP willing to come out to vote and vote against Han.  Even if that over-estimates turnout I recon around 30% of VAP should come out to vote against Han and most likely another 3% of VAP will come out to vote in favor of Han.

So who becomes the mayor of Kaohsiung if the recall is successful?
Is there by-election?
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jaichind
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« Reply #347 on: June 06, 2020, 04:49:24 AM »

With 95% of the precinct reporting turnout is around 42% of VAP with around 97% for recall of Han and 3% against.  So the vote to recall Han will most likely be around 40.7% which would be around the upper end of pre-vote polling and well above the 25% threshold.  What is key is that 40.7% is slightly ahead of the 39.1% of VAP that Han got in the 2018 election.  So in many ways KMT supporters like myself have very cause to complain as the recall vote was enough to overturn the 2018 election results and Han's recall should not be viewed as winning on a technically with a fairly low threshold for a recall success.

There will be a by-election.  Most likely DPP will run DPM 陳其邁(Chen Chi-mai) who was the DPP candidate that lost to Han in 2018.  陳其邁(Chen Chi-mai) was a student activist back in the 1980s but more importantly the son of a KMT MP that was in the minority pro-independence faction.  His father defected to DPP in 1992 being a key member of the DPP Prez Chen's adminstration before having his career cut short due to corruption charges.   陳其邁(Chen Chi-mai) for sure gained in the DPP due to his father and was a likely DPP candidate in the 2006 Kaohsiung mayor election but had to back out due to his father's corruption charges.  2018 was his comeback but was unexpectedly defeated by KMT's Han.  Now he will finially reach his dream  of becoming mayor of Kaoshiung.

It is possible that NPP or even TSP will run a candidate as well.  The KMT candidate will most likely be a second tier candidate in an election that they are certain to lose.  I doubt the KMT can win in Kaoshing again until a) it is an open seat and b) DPP is in power at the center which would give the KMT the advantage of anti-incumbency.  For both to be true will be 3-4 election cycles away in my view as the KMT most likely will win power in the center either 2024 or 2028 while   陳其邁(Chen Chi-mai) will most likely stick around for a couple of election cycles.
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jaichind
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« Reply #348 on: June 06, 2020, 05:16:07 AM »

All votes counted.  Turnout was 42.14% of VAP with vote to recall Han 40.8% of VAP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #349 on: June 06, 2020, 10:07:22 AM »

In a shock, an hour after Han was recalled, the KMT speaker of the Kaohsiung assembly 許崑源(Shu Kuan-Yuan) who was instrumental in helping Han get elected in 2018 and recaptured a KMT majority in the Kaoshiung assembly, committed suicide.

許崑源(Shu Kuan-Yuan)  actually comes from a DPP background.  His brother was founding member of the DPP and he was involved in opposition anti-KMT politics in the 1980s and 1990s.  In the 2000s he shifted over to a become a pro-KMT Independent and became the speaker of Kaohsiung city assembly in 2010.  He lost the role in the 2014 DPP landslide which saw the Pan-Green forces capture the  Kaohsiung city assembly.  He rode the Han coattails in 2018 to help recapture a KMT majority in the  Kaohsiung city assembly and became speaker again in 2018.

It seems that 許崑源(Shu Kuan-Yuan) was in poor health for a while and Han's recall could have been the last straw to push him over the edge.
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