ROC President and Legislative elections Jan 11 2020

[jaichind]

The pro-Tsai camp in the DPP, sending that she could lose, is already talking about a special rule in the DPP by-laws.  Namely, an emergency DPP party convention could be called where a 3/5 majority could overturn the result of a DPP "primary."  Not sure why they are talking about this now.  The battle has not begun yet and they are already talking about what they would do if they lose.  This only undermines the Tsai campaign.  The only logical reason for this, in my view, is to threaten fence sitters in the various DPP organisations not to break ranks to campaign for Lai because even a Lai victory in the primary does not necessary mean that Lai will become the nominee.

[jaichind]

DPP Speaker of the Legislature and pro-Tsai partisan Su (who ran as Tsai's running mate in 2012 in a losing effort against the KMT) has declared that he will not run on the DPP PR party list in 2020 which basically means is out of the running for Speaker of the Legislature after the 2020 elections.   The word is he did this to open up political space for Tsai to negotiate with Lai to get Lai out of the race. 

In the meantime there are persistent rumors from the pro-Tsai bloc that either
a) Even if Lai wins the primary the pro-Tsai majority in the Party Delegates will call an emergency DPP Party convention and nominate Tsai with a 3/5 majority vote
OR
b) The primary might be canceled all together and the DPP just nominates Tsai

All this moves are very politically dangerous for the DPP and most likely are ploys to get Lai to the negotiations table  to accept a Tsai-Lai ticket.

The nightmare scenario is Lai bets Tsai in the primary by less than 5%.  The pro-Lai bloc will proclaim victory and rush to proclaim Lai the DPP candidate for Prez.  The pro-Tsai bloc will say "the whole point of Lai running, or so he claims, is that he will be a much stronger candidate than Tsai in the general election but the primary results show the are basically the same so why are we admitting to the public that the DPP administration has failed by replacing the DPP incumbent." and then use its 3/5 majority in the DPP party convention to nominate Tsai which in turn will lead to a split of the DPP with Lai potentially running as a DPP rebel.

On xfutures.org the odds are still Tsai 58 Lai 42 despite the fact that Lai is clearly ahead in the polls.  These odds reflect the fact that Lai has to beat Tsai by double digits in the primary, if there is one, to be nominated.   So in other words these betting odds reflect a good chance of some technical rigging.

[jaichind]

Well, this is not directly Tsai's fault.  What took place in 2008 was the ROC and PRC agreed to a "diplomatic truce" based on the "1992 Consensus" which is: Both side agrees there is only One China but both sides get to proclaim what is that One China.

In 2016 DPP took over and choose to reject the "1992 Consensus" so the PRC went on the diplomatic offensive and poached a bunch of states that recognized the ROC.  This is not longer the 1990s when both PRC and ROC were in the same league when it comes to cash to buy off micro-states to back  ROC or not.  The resource gap these days are just too massive in favor of PRC.

What can Tsai & the DPP do ?

Well, clearly Tsai and DPP are for Taiwan independence which is a dead end the way they are going about it.   Putting myself in their shoes the way I would go about this would be to appeal directly to the population on Mainland China.  Their line should be

"We totally acknowledge the people on Taiwan are of Chinese stock.  We are just as proud as those of you on the Mainland at our common Chinese heritage.  What are movement is about is not about separation of Taiwan from China per say  but more about what is the best political system that will bring good results for the Chinese people.  Our view is that a mega state of all Chinese is no longer viable in this fast paced modern world.  If we Chinese split up into a couple dozen mini states (much like the Arab people have at least a dozen states) then each state can act quicker and be more nimble to adopt policies that will benefit its citizens.  The success of the Chinese dominated state of Singapore is a good example of this. Let Taiwan form a separate Chinese state  and let that be a beacon on how we can form many smaller Chinese states.  We Chinese in these smaller Chinese states can even work together in some sort of EU-like or Commonwealth form in recognition of our common Chinese heritage."  

That would be a way to make the argument for Taiwan Independence and potentially get that to work without a war that Taiwan is destined to lose.

[jaichind]

Now the pro-Tsai camp are saying that DPP should consider canceling the primary.  They logic is based on this chart
 
         DPP Primary Held       General election result
1996       Yes                             DPP lost
2000        No                             DPP won
2004        No                             DPP won
2008       Yes                             DPP lost
2012       Yes                             DPP lost
2016        No                             DPP won

Their point is that every time the DPP held a Prez "Primary" the DPP loses in the general election and vice versa.  But the main issue here is more that not holding the primary means that the party is united around one candidate making a primary not necessary.  A united DPP then wins a general election.  Not holding a primary for 2020  does not change the fact that the DPP is now clearly divided.

[jaichind]

The DPP is desperate aren't they ?

Just to be clear. the KMT "primary" in a equal as there is a strong Draft Han movement.  KMT Chairman Wu seems to prefer to Draft Han into the primary and have Han beat Chu and Wang fair an square.  Problem is KMT by-laws does not allow for such a maneuver and Han does not want to sign up for the KMT primary on his own since it would look like he has betrayed his mandate of Nov 2018. 

The trend on the Pan-Blue side is that they always split when they are in office (1996 2000 2012 2016) but are united when they are not (2004 2008).  So most likely this will work itself out.

I think what will most likely will take place is  the KMT wait for the DPP "primary" to work itself out.  If the DPP candidate (be it Tsai or Lai) gets damaged as a result of a contest primary then the Draft Han campaign will dissipate and it will be a Chu vs Wang KMT primary.  If the DPP emerges stronger from its primary, as hard as it is to see now, then there will be a Draft Han surge with KMT Chairman Wu just drafting Han can cancelling the KMT primary.

[jaichind]

Ettoday poll (which is fairly internet heavy and as a result youth heavy)

KMT Han 41.1 Ko 26.8 DPP Tsai 21.6
KMT Han 40.4 Ko 26.6 DPP Lai 22.8



KMT Han 49.7 DPP Tsai 30.4
KMT Han 48.3 DPP Lai 31.9


Seems to show no difference between Tsai and Lai.  Of course Tsai is stronger among DPP youth and Lai is stronger with the DPP core so an internet heavy poll tend to be better for Tsai.

[jaichind]

Think tank Taipei Debate Fund poll

Will you support Taiwan Independence if Mainland China does not attack in response: 62.0%
Will you support Taiwan Independence if Mainland China does attack in response: 29.8%

What do you think is the likely outcome in the end between Taiwan and Mainland China: Unification 48.1% Independence 29.6%

So around 30% hare hardcore Taiwan Independence supporters that will back it despite an attack from PRC in response.  Other then that there is a majority for Taiwan Independence in abstract even though not if there is a PRC attack and most do no think it will ever take place as opposed to Unification.

[jaichind]

There are rumors that DPP Chairman (who is a Tsai crony) has proposed a poll based primary with a twist: Lai has to beat Tsai by 3% to count as a Lai victory.  While it seems like an attempt to rig the process I think there is some logic behind it.  The whole point of a Lai run is that he will do a lot better than Tsai in the general election.  But if Lai can only beat Tsai by 3% or less then that whole logic breaks down and risks a general DPP meltdown by saying to the electorate "our administration has failed ergo we need to kick out the incumbent".  They can also point to 2017 France where PS kicking out Hollande did not mean Hamon did any better or avoid getting hammered.

[jaichind]

DPP decided to push back the Prez primary to beyond 5/22 which is the date when the DPP will work out its candidates for the Legislature.  This was done over the objections of the Lai bloc but other than the radical pro-Taiwan Independence faction and part of the New Tide faction everyone else is backing Tsai.  I think the fix is in.  Tsai and gang I think is going to drag this process out until when Tsai can win over Lai in the polls. 

Up until now the pro-Tsai bloc has been putting out feelers to the media about the set of possible steps the Tsai bloc might take in the future

1) Delay the Prez primary - which has been done
2) Cancel the primary and nominate Tsai
3) A DPP national convention overturning the Primary results in case Tsai loses
4) DPP primary will have added rules saying that Lai has to win by at least 3% over Tsai to count as a win
5) Tsai leave DPP and run as independent if Lai is nominated via the DPP primary process.

None of Tsai's cronies would publicly  say they are for any of the last 4 but clearly "someone" is feeding the media that this is what is being considered by DPP high command (aka Tsai)

So while Lai won round 1 over Tsai in his surprise jump into the DPP Prez primary without Tsai knowing what hit her, in round 2 she is recovering and creating an organizational noose to slowly squeeze Lai until he has to give in.

[jaichind]

On the KMT side KMT chairman Wu announces that he will not seek to become the KMT candidate.  This now frees him to get in there to work with Chu Wang and Han on some sort of process to get a candidate that will win including a draft Han move.  Of course the KMT will wait to see if DPP implodes and if Ko picks up the DPP base.  The candidate the KMT will have to come up with with or without a DPP implosion and with or without Ko could look very different. 

[jaichind]

The odds that Tsai survives in 2020 IF she wins the DPP Primary & wins reelection against a stronger KMT nominee ?

On paper low.  On the other hand back in 2004 before DPP Prez Chen was officially re-nominated by the DPP he was behind the Pan-Blue Lien-Soong ticket by 18% but was able to cut it to 8% after DPP Prez Chen was officially nominated.  Chen went on to win by a narrow margin mostly due to a last minute assassination attempt on Chen which to this day all Pan-Blue voters feel that it was staged by DPP. 

If Tsai is the DPP nominee she could provoke all sorts of conflict with the PRC to turn the election into a referendum on reunification with Mainland China which she would be a good shape to win.   

[jaichind]

After DPP delayed the Prez Primary which should help Tsai Xfutures odds now has it as Tsai 55 Lai 45 versus Tsai 58 Lai 42 before the delay.  I guess the punter market thinks this move decrease the chances of cancelling the Primary all together which obviously increase Lai's odds.

[jaichind]

Latest Chinatimes poll on KMT primary

Han   34.6%
Chu   16.4%
Wang 16.1%

Of course Han has not declared that he will enter the race but he might be forced by the KMT base.

[jaichind]

Apple Daliy poll  Apple Daily tend to lean Green and especially since we are in DPP "primary" season polls during this time will have a pro-DPP lean

DPP "primary"
             All voters      Pan-Green voters
Lai            42.8                   43.5
Tsai           27.3                  48.0

Non-Pan Green voters prefer Lai despite the fact he is more radical.  Clearly shows how turned off the non-Pan-Green voters are to Tsai

KMT "primary"
             All voters      Pan-Blue voters
Han           32.3                  54.3
Chu           23.6                  27.0
Wang         22.0                  10.5

Non-Pan Blue voters prefer Wang which makes sense as he is the most moderate of all KMT candidates.

There are talk that pro-Blue CEO of Foxconn Terry Gou might also try to jump in the race and run as a Pan-Blue candidate.

Pan-Blue "primary"

             All voters      Pan-Blue voters
Han          25.4                 43.4
Guo          22.9                 28.9
Wang        19.1                  6.5
Chu          18.6                 18.2


3 way Prez trial heats

Han 37.4 Ko 30.1 Tsai 22.3
Han 35.4 Ko 27.6  Lai 27.5
Ko 35.9 Chu 30.1 Tsai 22.7
Ko 34.9 Lai 27.4 Chu 26.4

Lai does 5% better than Tsai in 3 way trial heats




1-on-1 it is

Han 51.4 Tsai 37.4
Han 48.6 Lai 42.6



All things equal Tsai does 5% worse than Lai across the board when compared to other KMT candidates.  The poll males it clear the path forward for Tsai.  Tsai should push DPP to build a "closed primary" where it is Lai vs Tsai but only with Pan-Green voters preferences being counted.

[jaichind]

So it seems Foxconn owner and CEO  郭台銘(Terry Gou) is likely to jump into the KMT primary a couple of days from now.


Guo has been pro-KMT all his life although his party membership membership might have lapsed.  Given the fact that he would be strong contender for KMT in the general election KMT Chairman Wu who has ruled himself out as a candidate for the KMT has given Guo retroactive honorary membership    in the KMT.  Guo was and still is a stronger supporter of Han.  Han is in the USA right now but as soon as he comes back there will be a Han-Guo summit where between the two one will enter into the KMT primary. 

If it plays out this way then it would simply things for KMT high command. The KMT "problem" is if Ko gets into the race and/or DPP runs Lai, then while Chu COULD win in such a general election race he COULD also lose.   The KMT has been so burned badly in 2016 it wants a "sure thing" of a candidate that is well ahead of Ko and Lai.  Han fits that model but Han does not want to jump into the primary given the optics of abandoning Kaoshiung which was just elected mayor back in Nov 2018.  If Guo gets into the race now it will force Han's hand.  If Han really want to be Prez in 2020 he can tell Guo to back off and it is believed Guo will.  If Han does not want to run he can now not feel pressure of betraying the hopes of the KMT base who need him to run to ensure victory in 2020 by backing Guo who would fit that need. It is expected that Guo would defeat Chu and Wang in a KMT primary and would have the upper hand in the general election against Lai and/or Ko if either or both gets into the race.  I dare say if Guo ends up being the KMT candidate given his appeal to independents Ko might not even run.

A ROC Prez Guo in 2020 would be interesting.  Foxconn has significant business interests on Mainland China and other parts of the world including USA.  Guo has had interactions with Trump due to his new Foxconn plant in WI which is suppose to help Trump's election.  His business connections will for sure help ROC economic policy making and deal making but like Trump might fall into controversy over conflict of interest.

[jaichind]

Foxconn's Gou Runs for Taiwan President, Citing Message From Sea Goddess

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-17/foxconn-s-gou-says-sea-goddess-backs-his-run-for-taiwan-leader

Guo indicated that he spoke to the Sea goddess 媽祖(Mazu)  who gave him the instruction to run.  The Mazu cult started in the Sung dynasty and is based on a story of a girl in Fujian province during that time that sacrificed her life to rush out to sea to save her father whose ship was stranded at sea in the storm.  Mazu is worshiped mostly by fishermen in the Southern Chinese oceanic provinces of Fujian, Guangdong Zhejiang and Taiwan.   Guo himself is actually pretty religious but part of this story has to be the fact that he will need to appeal to conservative-religious voters in the general election as he should have the economic voter locked up. 


On a separate note if Guo is elected in 2020 then there could be a bake-off between him and Trump on who has higher net worth.  I suspect that Trump by a small margin most likely have a higher net worth than Guo,

[jaichind]

Shih Hsin University poll (historically used sometimes by Apple Daily)


KMT primary
Han    29.8
Guo    29.0




Guo performance in 3 way general election

KMT Guo 35.6 Ko 25.2 DPP Tsai 20.2
KMT Guo 32.1 Ko 25.8 DPP Lai 23.0



Guo performance in 2 way general election

KMT Guo 50.2 DPP Tsai 27.1
KMT Guo 42.6 DPP Lai 33.6

 


Most of these numbers will go down a bit for Guo as the novelty factor falls off but so far he seems like a formidable candidate.

[jaichind]

Current xfutures odds

DPP nominee
Tsai 50%
Lai   50%

KMT nominee
Guo  70%
Han  20%
Chu    9%
Wang  1%

[jaichind]

After working to get Guo to indicate that he will run in the KMT primary, KMT Chairman Wu's next move seems to be to draft Han into the KMT primary as well.  Wu's plan is clear to force as many titans into the KMT primary and then use the primary process to get supporters of all KMT candidates behind the winner.  That was always the danger of a Draft Han movement where Chu and Wang backers would fell the process was unfair since it just assumed that Han was the stronger candidate.  Now Han has to make a call if he even wants to run since the KMT no longer need to draft him to get a winner in the general election.   If he rules out 2020 then it is logical that Han would endorse Guo which would unify the Pan-Blue bloc.  Looks like Wu has played his cards well.  With a clear path for Han to enter the KMT primary if he does want to be considered for 2020 KMT nomination the latest xfutures odds for KMT nomination is now

Guo   48%
Han   35%
Chu   15%
Wang  2%

In the meantime DPP Prez Tsai is directly giving implicit signals in her speech that a  DPP primary would be a bad idea and that a another way to unify the DPP be found (which for her clearly is a Tsia-Lai ticket.)  Lai on the other hand insist on a primary.

[jaichind]

The sea goddess told him to seek the Presidential Office Building in 2020 ?

Correct, at least according to Guo.  Guo, to be fair, has been a believer in Mazu for decades so his faith should not be doubted.  Also to be exact  Guo said that both Mazu and another Chinese diety Guan Gong (關公) spoke to him in his dreams asking him to run.  

Guan Gong is based on a general Guan Yu from the Late Easter Han and Three Kingdoms period of 200-220 era. A propaganda history of Guan Yu made him icon of loyalty where he insisted on going back to his original retainer even after he was captured and promoted by a rival warlord.  He made his loyalty transparent to this rival warlord risking death and carried out his promise to going back to his original retainer after serving this rival warlord faithfully for some time.  Various Chinese governments have promoted the cult of Guan Gong to promote loyalty which benefits the current regime, of course.  The most recent Ching Dynasty was especially aggressive on this as a rival icon of loyalty would be Yue Fei (岳飛) of the Suny Dynasty.  Main problem for the Ching Dynasty was that Yue Fei spent most of his time fighting the rival Manchurian based Jin Dynasty which are the ancesters of the Manchurian based Ching dynasty.  While the Ching dynasty could not  defame Yue Fei or risk the ire of the general population that adore Yue Fei but what they can to is to promote a rival icon of loyalty Guan Yu who is more politically correct from the Ching dynasty point of view.


Again Guo is pretty famous for being faithful devotee of both Mazu and Guan Gong for decades so which this story seems fairly opportunistic it is hard to come down hard on someone who clearly had this faith for decades.

[jaichind]

With Guo clearly playing the religious card DPP Prez Tsai has to get back into the act.  A couple of days after the Guo claimed that Mazu told him to run in 2020, DPP Prez Tsai rushes to pray at a Mazu temple

[jaichind]

Also needing to get into the religious act, DPP's Lai also rushes to pray at 保生大帝(Baosheng Dadi) temple.  The Baosheng Dadi cult which is based on a doctor during the Sung dynasty (late 900s) in Fuijan (around the same time and as the girl the Mazu cult is based on) is often seen as a rival to the Mazu cult as both are very focused in Southern China, especially the Fujian area.
 

[jaichind]

A breakdown by age of the Shih Hsin University poll for Guo vs Ko vs Lai is intresting

           KMT Guo     Ko      DPP Lai
Total       32.1      25.8        23.0
20-29      18         41           22
30-39      32         35           19
40-49      35         28           15
50-59      38         22           28
60-69      40         13           25
70+         28          9           31

Ko very strong with the young.  Guo is competitive with the young (unlike Han) but very strong for middle age to 60s.  Lai starts to be competitive in the 50+ range with Ko being ultra weak once the age is above 60.

[jaichind]

Latest Formosa Times poll (pro-Green but also pro-Ko) done before Guo announced formally that he is running for KMT nomination (diff with March poll)

3 way
KMT Han 37.3(+5.2) DPP Lai 27.5(+0.7) Ko 21.7(-6.6)
KMT Han 37.8(+2.4) DPP Tsai 24.8(+2.2) Ko 22.9 (-4.9)
KMT Guo 32.3 DPP Lai 28.1 Ko 23.4
KMT Guo 34.1 DPP Tsai 24.7 Ko 24.3

1-on-1
KMT Han 46.4 DPP Lai 37.5
KMT Han 48.7 DPP Tsai 33.9
KMT Guo 44.6 DPP Lai 38.6
KMT Guo 48.2 DPP Tsai 32.1


With all the news on the DPP and KMT primaries Ko has been pushed out of the news and have lost ground even in a pro-Ko poll. Tsai seems to be slowing gaining ground on Lai.  Her delay tactics seems to be working.  

[jaichind]

A breakdown by age of the Shih Hsin University poll for Guo vs Ko vs Lai is intresting

           KMT Guo     Ko      DPP Lai
Total       32.1      25.8        23.0
20-29      18         41           22
30-39      32         35           19
40-49      35         28           15
50-59      38         22           28
60-69      40         13           25
70+         28          9           31

Ko very strong with the young.  Guo is competitive with the young (unlike Han) but very strong for middle age to 60s.  Lai starts to be competitive in the 50+ range with Ko being ultra weak once the age is above 60.

Taiwans age-political alignment correlation is really quite unique with the liberal nationalist DPP being very unpopular with the middle age group and quite popular with both the very young and the very old, while the conservative KMT finds most of its support among the middle Age group.
This is completely different to comparable countries in east asia like Korea where the older you get the more conservative the population group becomes, or in Japan where, as you once showed, the opposite is true.

What is the reason for Taiwan being so different? Is it because of the 40-60 Year olds growing up during the economic boom and martial law under chiang-kuo and therefore having a more positive view of the KMT, while Younger generations grew up under Chen and Lee-teng hui and with the missile strait crisis, and the 70+ maybe still witnessed the 228 Incident and therefore being more pro-DPP?   

(Also the Matsu Islands have a huge statue of Mazu and when i visited Nangan i think they said something about Mazu being seen as the protector of the Islands from the PRC and the reason why they were not invaded, so i expect guo to do very well there)

Most of this has to do with the unique role Ko is playing as he is taking different parts of the Blue and Green coalitions. 

The 2004 exit poll in a 50/50 race between DPP Chen and KMT Lien is instructive on Blue vs Green support by age and education

                        KMT Lien        DPP Chen
Total                    50                 50
20-24(14%)         40                 60
25-29(15%)         43                 57
30-39(26%)          55                45
40-49(23%)          57                43
50-59(14%)          50                50
60+(8%)               44                56

Chen was shot the day before the election which created a sympathy wave pushing up youth turnout helping him to win.

Exit poll by education
                                              KMT Lien        DPP Chen
Total                                         50                    50
Elementary school (9%)             30                     70
Middle School (10%)                  35                     65
High School(30%)                      50                    50
Vocational School(20%)              58                    42
College(32%)                            56                    44

DPP stronger with those with low education and KMT stronger with those with high education.  Those with low education tends to be older and the Green strength in the 60+ group are those with low education.

What Ko did with his anti-politics appeal was to eat into the youth vote of the DPP but also the educated middle age vote of the KMT  but had very little impact on older lowly educated voters.

As for why this is it has more to do with cost-benefits of economic integration with Mainland China  Those who are higher educated tend to see benefits with economic connections with Mainland China as their skills will be at a premium and vice versa for those with lower education.  This logic is somewhat reversing itself as the PRC moves up the value chain quite rapidly.  DPP strength among the elderly is mostly explained by the split by education.  Middle aged voters tend to more economic voters so they lean Blue.  I think the youth of this generation is more anti-KMT than normal due to the growing economic threat of the PRC as it moves up the value chain so quickly that now Mainland coastal provinces are now economically at par with Taiwan Province and are now competing head to head for economic opportunities.

As for Mazu there are believers in all parts of the Southern Greater Chinese world so believers will ascribe to it whatever political goals they have at that time.