ROC President and Legislative elections Jan 11 2020

[jaichind]

品觀點(Pinview) which is youth heavy poll done before the recent smuggling scandal

2-way
KMT Han   37.2
DPP Tsai    34.5

3-way
KMT Han  33.3
DPP Tsai   26.2
Ko           21.7



Xfutures odds has Tsai recovering from when cigarettes smuggling scandal hit

Winner of 2020 election
KMT Han  42
DPP Tsai   33
KO           25

[jaichind]

The cigarettes smuggling  scandal involved $500K worth of cigarettes being smuggled with the ROC Presidential security detail trunks that followed Prez Tsai back to the Presidential Palace.  The amount of cigarettes involved reminds me of the Simpsons Episode of Bart working for the Mob and agreed to store a truck load of stolen cigarettes  in his room

[jaichind]

Pro-Blue UDN poll which was partly done while the cigarettes smuggling scandal was breaking (change from June)

2-way Tsai now even with Han
KMT Han  32(-11)
DPP Tsai  32(-6)



3-way
KMT Han  29(-6)
Ko           25(-1)
DPP Tsai   22(--)


Where
KMT Han's supporters in a 2 way race still break for Han 81-12-1, while DPP Tsai's supporters in a 2 way race sees large losses to Ko 1-35-65

[jaichind]

Apple Daliy poll after the  cigarettes smuggling scandal  broke

2-way
KMT Han   37.8(-0.6)
DPP Tsai    35.4(-2.5)


3-way
KMT Han   32.6(-0.6)
DPP Tsai   29.6(-3.1)
Ko            23.3(-0.1)


So Tsai loses ground but Han does not gain ground.  It seems this entire draft Han movement is not working out for KMT.  He has limited appeal beyond his core base. And now he has to run with the burden of abandoning Kaohsiung which he was just elected mayor in 2018.  KMT should have gone with Guo and even Chu.  Water under the bridge.  I have a bad feeling about this and once get past this she is in a good shape to win re-election.  KMT and Han just have to hope Tsai will get hit with scandal after scandal between now and Jan 2020.

Xfutures odds

KMT Han   42
DPP Tsai    39
Ko            19

It seems the futures market which has a pro-Green historically to be fair is also coming to the conclusion that Han's low ceiling does give both Tsai and Ko a chance.   

[jaichind]

How much Han's approval in Kaohsiung went down when he entered the race for president shortly after being elected as the mayor?

It for sure have dropped.  How much is not clear since mostly pro-Green polls, many of which have
dubious track records, have polled this.  But it is clear that a majority of  Kaohsiung  voters oppose Han getting into the race and even if Han wins the Prez race in 2020 it is almost certain that DPP would win back Kaohsiung in the ensuing by-election.

[jaichind]

Ettoday (slight pro-Blue but very internet and youth heavy) poll post cigarettes smuggling scandal 

2-way
DPP Tsai   39.0(-2.2)
KMT Han  38.9(+2.9)


3-way with Ko
KMT Han  36.2(+2.4)
DPP Tsai   33.9(+0.7)
Ko           18.4(-2.


3-way with Guo
DPP Tsai   35.0(-0.6)
KMT Han  32.7(+2.5)
Guo         22.4(-2.7)


4-way
KMT Han  31.7(+1.2)
DPP Tsai   31.5(-0.3)
Guo         18.0(-2.7)
Ko           11.9(+0.


3-way with Guo-Ko
DPP Tsai   32.2(-0.6)
KMT Han  32.1(+2.1)
Guo-Ko    24.4(-3.1)


What is key here is how low Ko and Guo are relative to DPP Tsai.  This seems to indicate that the youth vote which abandoned Tsai/DPP in late 2018 is partly coming back to DPP Tsai.  If so the dynamics of tactical voting in a 3 way race will work in DPP Tsai's favor relative to Han and Ko/Guo.   

[jaichind]

Very pro-Tsai Green party poll

2-way
DPP Tsai    43.9
KMT Han   38.5

3-way
DPP Tsai   32.1
KMT Han  31.8
Ko           25.3

3-way in Taipei City
KMT Han 30.6
DPP Tsai  29.1
Ko          19.1

Ko under-performing in his own city of Taipei City as a good chunk of his ex-DPP youth base seems to have shifted back to DPP Tsai.

3-way with Ko-Guo alliance
Guo-Ko   32.4
DPP Tsai  30.6
KMT Han  28.4

Ko-Guo surges to first place

Party support
KMT    35.5
DPP     27.4
NPP     10.4
TSP       3.0 (radical Independence)
PFP        2.3
GP         2.1 (well, this is a Green Party poll)

NPP which broke the cigarettes smuggling scandal  saw their support drop from 16.9 from a month ago as its pro-Green base gets angry at their actions that harm DPP Tsai's prospects.

[jaichind]

Ko to kick off new political party on 8/6 called 台灣民眾黨 or Taiwanese People's Party (my translation) or TPP.  This must be a precurser to him running.



This is the same name as 蔣渭水(Chiang Wei-shui) 1927 political party which was formed during Japanese rule.   In many ways it was a de facto Taiwan branch of the KMT .

The 1927 TPP party flag is really the the ROC flag but changed in way that the Japanese authorities cannot go after them.  The party was shut down by the Japanese authorizes in 1930 


It seems that Ko want to capture that sprite of 1927. 

This is not a good idea for Ko.  He made his political name as the politician of anti-politics.  To form a party seems to contradict his original anti-establishment message.

[jaichind]

Speaking of 台灣民眾黨 or TPP which is the name of Ko's new party, as mentioned before it is the same name as the 1927 party formed by activist  蔣渭水(Chiang Wei-shui) which was really a Right Taiwan Independence outfit.   I would be interesting to cover this part of the history of Taiwan Province.

In pre-1945 period, there were also a Taiwan Independence movement and like today there was Right Independence and Left Independence.  蔣渭水(Chiang Wei-shui)'s TPP which was really a KMT front organization represented Right Independence while CCP supported Left Independence.  The definiton are as the following:

Right Independence: Since Ching China signed away Taiwan Province to Japan in 1895 it would be against international law for ROC to claim Taiwan Province.  BUT the KMT can support a Right Independence movement like TPP to fight for and gain self-determination for Taiwan which would vote for independence from Japan  and then after that a newly independent Taiwan under the control of TPP would ask to Join ROC.  This way  Taiwan would re-join China without ROC being acting in a way that violated treaties that its predecessor signed and it is obligated to follow.  In other words Right Independence is not independence at all but a front movement for reunification with ROC.  In many ways this is a clone of the 1895 short live Republic of Formosa which was formed after Ching China ceded Taiwan Province to Japan and the local population formed Republic of Formosa to fight off the Japanese and then find a way to merge back into Ching China.


Left Independence: Created and backed by CCP.  Following Marxist norms of self-determination of oppressed peoples, the CCP and its Left Independence agents up until the mid 1930s were actually for an independent and Communist Taiwan that would be a fraternal Socialist state align side a Communist China.  This Independence is real independence unlike the fake Right Independence movement.  This is the first real Taiwan Independence movement  that is for real Independence as a goal.  So the real founders of Taiwan Independence is no other than CCP.  By the mid 1930s the CCP mostly backed off from this position as it started  incorporate Chinese nationalist thinking into its program to gain popular  support as it was clear that a pure Marxist platform was not gaining such support.

[jaichind]

There are also rumors that ex-DPP Prez Chen will also turn his cross-party political 一邊一國連線 (One Side One Country Alliance) or OSOCA into a party 一邊一國行動黨 One Side One Country Party or OSOCP.  Not sure what is the point of this.  There already is a pro-Chen Right Independence party that just got created which is 喜樂島聯盟 (Formosa Alliance) or FA.  Not sure why we need two pro-Chen Right Independence parties.

All this DPP splinters and now Ko's TPP will most likely eat into NPP as the pro-Green but anti-DPP alternative.  I think in 2020 NPP will be sunk and might end up with no seats even if it forms a de facto  alliance with DPP most of its vote base will migrate to these DPP splinter or Ko's TPP. 

[jaichind]

Looks like PRC has announced that it will stop issuing travel permits for individual leisure trips to Taiwan Province.   This means business travel and group tours would be the only way for many Mainland Chinese tourist to travel to Taiwan Province.

Usually before a ROC election the PRC tends to deescalate to try to support KMT and not allow DPP to weaponize the cross straits relationship for political benefit in the election.  I think this time around the PRC position is "We do not care about KMT, you guys can vote for who ever you want, just realize the level of economic pain we can inflict and that we can always ratchet it up more."

[jaichind]

There are also rumors that ex-DPP Prez Chen will also turn his cross-party political 一邊一國連線 (One Side One Country Alliance) or OSOCA into a party 一邊一國行動黨 One Side One Country Party or OSOCP.  Not sure what is the point of this.  There already is a pro-Chen Right Independence party that just got created which is 喜樂島聯盟 (Formosa Alliance) or FA.  Not sure why we need two pro-Chen Right Independence parties.

All this DPP splinters and now Ko's TPP will most likely eat into NPP as the pro-Green but anti-DPP alternative.  I think in 2020 NPP will be sunk and might end up with no seats even if it forms a de facto  alliance with DPP most of its vote base will migrate to these DPP splinter or Ko's TPP. 

I thought NPP was left independence and youth-heavy party. Maybe they will lose some some voters to Ko's and Chen's party but won't their core base still would vote for NPP?
Also if Chen forms new party would that mean he would also run for Prez?

You are generally correct.  But there are lots of different types of people that back NPP:
a) Anti-Tsai anti-DPP but pro-independence.  These guys will now go to the pro-Chen parties
b) Left-Progressive youth but lukewarm on independence.  These guys will now go TPP
c) Left-Progressive youth and pro-independence.  This should stay in NPP but many of these voters are also attracted to Tsai so it is not clear how much will stay behind in NPP

The pro-Chen parties are there for one reason.  It is not for Chen to run for President as he is serving a prison term for corruption and cannot run.  Chen has been convicted for corruption  and is only out on medical parole.  The DPP Tsai regime can put him behind bars any moment saying Chen is medically fit to serve out his term which is almost certainly objectively true.  So the pro-Chen parties are there as a threat to Tsai that if she does anything against Chen then they will go on a kamikaze mission to take down Tsai and DPP in 2020 elections.  Of course Tsai/DPP can counter with :well if the KMT comes back to power then Chen will be behind bars within days so go ahead, make my day.  This will turn into a game of chicken between Chen and Tsai.

[jaichind]

It would be useful to look at TVBS polls at this point in the last 2 ROC Prez re-election campaign (5 months before the election)

2003 Oct
KMT-PFP Lien-Soong 41
DPP Chen                35

TVBS polls last few days before the 2004 election hasd Lien-Soong 8-10 points ahead but Chen being shot the day before the election led to polls being 39-39 last day before the election then Chen won 50.1-49.9 on election day in March 2004.

2011 July
KMT Ma  44
DPP Tsai 36

Later on PFP Soong jump into the race and and Ma won 51.6-45.6-2.8 in Jan 2012

Now we have

2019 July
KMT Han 48
DPP Tsai  44

The 2004 and 2012 record seem to indicate that 4-5 month before the election the state of the race is very likely to be similar to polls right before the election, notwithstanding a last minute assassination attempt the day before the election in 2004

[jaichind]

Youth heavy 品觀點(Pinview) poll post  cigarettes smuggling scandal  does not show much change

2-way
KMT Han  39.3 (+2.1)
DPP Tsai   36.0 (+1.5)

3-way
KMT Han  33.7 (+0.4)
DPP Tsai   26.5 (+0.3)
Ko           24.5 (+2.

4-way
KMT Han  30.3 (-2.0)
DPP Tsai   24.4 (+2.3)
Guo         16.6 (-1.
Ko           16.4 (--)

[jaichind]

One of NPP's top leaders and founder 林昶佐(Freddy Lim) quit NPP today to back DPP Tsai for Prez race.  DPP most likely will support 林昶佐(Freddy Lim) in his Taipei 5th district who will run as a independent.  He was elected here as NPP candidate with DPP support.  Most likely KMT will recapture this seat in 2020.   At this stage NPP is splitting down the middle between pro-Tsai and anti-Tsai factions.  Pro-Tsai faction will pretty much just join DPP while the anti-Tsai faction will most likely join up with Ko.

[jaichind]

There seems to be signs of all sorts of talks between Guo, KMT ex-Speaker Wang, and Ko camps for the creation of a  mega Third Front.  I think it comes down to, if Guo is winning to run, then Ko would step aside for a Guo-Wang ticket with Guo also agreeing to back Ko's TPP in the Legislative race.  Such a deal would also mean that some of Guo and Wang backers will find themselves on the TPP PR list.  All this is premised on Guo actually running as an independent.  It is not clear that that is the case.  In case Guo does not which is still more likely than not, then Ko will run not to necessary win but to push up the TPP PR vote. 

[jaichind]

New Green Party poll on party support (change from poll 1 week ago before TPP was formed)

KMT    34.0 (-1.5)
DPP     24.8 (-2.6)
TPP       9.1
NPP       5.1 (-5.3)
GP        3.3 (+1.2)
TSP       2.8 (-0.2) (radical Independence)
PFP       0.9 (-1.4)


TPP draws support most from NPP and PFP, as expected.  It also draws some support from DPP more so than KMT.  This might be the peak support for TPP.  I suspect it will lose support to DPP and KMT from here but I guess in theory continue to draw from NPP.

[jaichind]

Independent HK/Taiwan Province media The News Lens analysis of the 2020 race based on scenarios and how Deep Blue, Light Blue, Independent Light Green, Deep Green might vote by key age groups of  20-40 vs 40-60

KMT Han vs Ko vs DPP Tsai


KMT Han vs DPP Tsai


KMT Han vs Guo vs DPP Tsai


KMT Han vs Guo vs Ko vs DPP Tsai



Their conclusion is that Han narrowly wins in a KMT Han vs DPP Tsai as well as a KMT Han vs Guo vs Ko vs DPP Tsai race and wins with some margin in a KMT Han vs Ko vs DPP Tsai  while Tsai wins narrowly in a KMT Han vs Guo vs DPP Tsai  race.



The basic idea is that Han is relatively stronger in the 40-60 age group which carries over among independent voters. Tsai has some appeal with Light Blue youth voters.  If Ko is in the race by himself then his ability to eat into Light Green and youth independent voters will doom Tsai.  If Guo is the third party candidate he eats into the youth vote across the board but critically eat into the older Light Blue voter base which helps Tsai.  Overall the fact that turnout with 40-60 age groups is more likely to be higher than the 20-40 age ground gives Han the edge across the board.

I think this analysis does not take into account of possible tactical voting which underestimates Tsai in a  KMT Han vs Ko vs DPP Tsai  race as well as underestimates Han in a  KMT Han vs Guo vs DPP Tsai race.

Again, the DPP path to victory is still the same. Ramp up youth turnout by focusing on a liberal-progressive agenda as well as focusing on the PRC-HK issue painting the CCP as an anti-progressive force and threat to the democratic order on Taiwan Province. 

[jaichind]

It is confirmed that the pro-Chen Right Independence DPP splinter 一邊一國行動黨(One Side One Country Party) or OSOCP has been formed.  Again not sure what is the point of yet another pro-Chen DPP Right Independence splinter FA has been formed.

Also former DPP county migrate of Tainan County 蘇煥智(Su Huan-chih) who ran in last year's Tainan City mayor race as a DPP rebel also formed his own party 台灣維新黨 which I for now called Taiwan  Restoration Party of TRP.   The word "維新" is an ancient Chinese political phrase for reform and it has used by Japan for its 1868 Meiji Restoration which is refereed to as "明治维新".  JRP in Japan which was formed in 2012 is is called 日本維新の会 or Japan Innovation Party but was called Japan Restoration Party in 2012 when it was first formed.    Since Su's outfit is clearly modeled after the Japanese JRP one way would to be call his outfit TRP.  Anyway.   Yet another DPP splinter has been formed.

[jaichind]

Radical Taiwan Independence NGO Taiwan New Constitution Foundation came out with their poll which has Tsai with a massive lead.  Even if one, like me, think in a 2 way race Tsai could have a slight edge, the lead is not massive.  This poll can mostly be discounted but their party support result is interesting.

First, 2 way

DPP Tsai  51.0
KMT Han  31.2



3 way

DPP Tsai  41.9
KMT Han 25.7
Ko          22.6

So even this poll has Ko taking more support from Tsai than Han


Party support which at least tries to poll all these newly created parties.  The pro-Independence side seems very crowded.  Mostly will not hurt Tsai but will hit DPP in legislative races.  And that is on top of TPP perhaps also hitting DPP in district seats.

DPP     30.5
KMT    27.2
TPP     15.5   (Ko's new outfit)
NPP       4.7  (de facto Tsai/DPP ally these days as most anti-Tsai factions drift away)
PFP       2.3   (old KMT rebel Soong's outfit, will be gone after Soong finally retires)
OSOCP  1.5  (yet another pro-Chen Right Independence splinter)
FA         1.3   (yet another pro-Chen Right Independence splinter)
GP        1.0   (Green party, mostly pro-Tsai)
TSP       0.7  (Radical Left Independence)
NP         0.7  (Radical Right Unification)
MKT      0.1  (KMT splinter, does not make sense as MKT already merged into CPA)
FTP       0.1   (Radical Right independence)  

[jaichind]

It seems Ko's strategy is the following:

With Tsai's recovery in the polls an independent run by Ko in 2020 most likely will not result in a Ko victory since Han's floor is pretty high and Tsai polling high enough that she will be a strong second which would block Tsai->Ko tactical voting.

So, Ko now will focus on 2024.  But for that to take place he needs to be politically relevant until 2024.  While Tsai could end up winning re-election, at this stage DPP is for sure not going to win a legislative majority in 2020.  The KMT could but that is not a sure thing.  So Ko forms TPP to make a mark on the PR section.  If TPP can win something like 15% of the PR vote then TPP can win 5-6 PR seats which could make TPP kingmaker and make Ko politically relevant in in 2020-2024 if the KMT fail to win a legislative majority which is less likely if TPP runs strongly in the PR slate. 

But for TPP to do well in the PR slate, someone must run for President at the top of the ticket to drive support to TPP.  For Ko it seems what he wants is for Guo to run as an independent and back a Ko led TPP in the legislative elections.  Guo's wealth would also help fund TPP efforts.  Of course the problem is if Ko concluded that he is unlikely to win in 2020 then Guo can make the same calculation. So if Guo chooses not to run then Ko will run for Prez mostly not to win (although anything can happen) but to push up the vote for TPP.

In many ways Ko forming TPP early is signal to get Guo to join forces with him and if Guo turns it down then Ko still have time to launch his own campaign. 

[jaichind]

Latest Green Party (pro-Tsai) poll (where do they get the money for all these polls ? I suspect most of  the money are from Tsai campaign).  I would read this mostly as an DPP internal poll leak.  Biased but relevant.  

2-way
DPP Tsai    44.5
KMT Han    37.3


3-way

DPP Tsai    34.6
KMT Han    29.4
Guo-Ko      28.7



DPP Tsai    35.4
KMT Han    30.8
Guo-Ko      25.9


PR vote

KMT   36.6
DPP   24.9
TPP    12.5
NPP     8.0 (this is surprising high, I suspect most of this will flow back to DPP)
TSP     2.2 (Radical Left Independence)
GP      2.1
PFP     1.8


Party support (change from poll earlier in the week)

KMT    34.5 (+0.5)
DPP     26.4 (+1.6)
TPP     10.7 (+1.6)
NPP       6.9 (+1.8 )
GP        1.9 (-1.4)
TSP       1.8 (-1.0)
PFP       1.7 (+0.8 )

No big change.  Mostly some shifting of support within the pro-Independence camp

[jaichind]

Latest xfutures odds on winner of 2020 Prez election

Tsai  50
Han  43
Ko     7

Ko's chances going down since it seems chances of him running is going down.  With Ko not running Tsai chances goes up relative to Han.  Mostly make sense to me.

[jaichind]

On the the KMT side of splinters. 悟覺妙天禪師(Chan Master Wujue Miaotian) an 85 year old pro-Blue Zen Buddhist sect leader has created the moderate pro-unification 國會政黨聯盟(Congress Party Alliance) CPA.  KMT splinter MKT has merged itself into it.   CPA most likely will have a very small impact on the KMT on the PR vote but will be a challenge for the KMT as it will split the KMT vote in Keelung City and  Hsinchu County district races as local KMT rebels have joined MKT and now are part of CPA.

[jaichind]

Pro-Blue (mostly pro-Guo but now have shifted to a pro-Han position) TVBS poll (diff from Mid July TVBS poll)

2-way
KMT Han  48(--)
DPP Tsai   45(+1)


3-way (Guo runs but endorsed by Ko)
KMT Han 37
DPP Tasi  32(+2)
Guo        26(-1)  


Party support
NPP as expected gets hit by TPP as the anti-Tsai faction of NPP goes over to TPP

KMT  28(-3)
DPP  22(+1)
TPP    8
NPP    4(-6)



3-way breakout by age
                Total            20-29       30-39     40-49       50-59         60+
KMT Han     37(--)        17(--)      25(+6)    42(+6)     46(-11)     45(--)
DPP Tsai      32(+2)      55(-10)    32(-4)     21(-3)      30(+13)    34(+6)
Guo            26(-1)       37(+10)   41(+1)    34(-4)      22(-2)       10(-3)

Tsai gains ground mostly in the older traditional light Blue and Light Green voters from Han but loses ground to Han and Guo in the youth vote.  Basically a reversion to the mean.

Overall a good poll for Han.  The July poll was just after Han's primary victory so his numbers were going to be inflated.  But the same poll a month later still have him having the same support.  Still to be ahead 1-on-1 by 3 in a TVBS poll means that a 1-on-1 race is most likely tossup for Han.  Tsai should be worried by the 3 way race. Even with Guo entering into the race she loses more than Han does to Guo despite Guo's fairly Blue background.  Shows that a good part of her support are made up of anti-Han voters are not committed to her.  The part of Han's support that went to Guo most likely will come back due to tactical voting as long a Han is in first or second place.

If I were Guo and saw this poll most likely I will not run.  Neither Han nor Tsai have hit their campaign in high gear yet.  Also Guo is well behind Han.  Guo's only chance in the general is that Han falls to third place and the old KMT base swings behind Guo.  This seems unlikely for now.