2019 Slovak presidential elections

[Estrella]

Final results: (well, almost, 99.96%)

Zuzana Čaputová 40.6% (869k votes)
Maroš Šefčovič 18.7% (400k votes)
Štefan Harabin 14.4% (307k votes)
Marian Kotleba 10.4% (222k votes)
František Mikloško 5.7% (127k votes)
Béla Bugár 3.1% (66k votes)
Milan Krajniak 2.8% (59k votes)
Eduard Chmelár 2.8% (58k votes)
Martin Daňo 0.5% (11k votes) (independent journalist)
Robert Švec 0.3% (6,562 votes) (far-right nationalist)
Juraj Zabojník 0.3% (6,206 votes) (an independent security expert and ex-cop)
Ivan Zuzula 0.2% (3,802 votes) (a conservative)
Bohumila Tauchmannová 0.2% (3,531 votes) (an independent businesswoman)
Robert Mistrík 0.2% (3,316 votes) (a liberal, withdrew from the race)
József Menyhárt 0.1% (1,207 votes) (Hungarian minority conservative, withdrew from the race)

Turnout: 2,156,948 votes (48.7%)

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

Could you tell us, what would be the difference between this second turn and last elections when Fico lost?

[mgop]

this is not over. sefcovic, harabin and kotleba combine have more than caputova. anything can happen, remember peru when keiko won first round with 40%, second placed had 21% and then all ganged up against her and she lost.

[Estrella]

Could you tell us, what would be the difference between this second turn and last elections when Fico lost?

The main difference is that this year, the Smer candidate isn't Fico - someone who's been in politics for a long time and became very polarizing and disliked by most people. Šefčovič is a newcomer who's distancing himself from the unpopular party and probably has a better chance thanks to that.

[DavidB.]

this is not over. sefcovic, harabin and kotleba combine have more than caputova. anything can happen, remember peru when keiko won first round with 40%, second placed had 21% and then all ganged up against her and she lost.

This wouldn't have been over if Smer weren't as unpopular as they are right now. Even in 2014, before the protests and all that, they lost. Sefcovic's best bet is to dissociate from his party as much as possible, but it won't be enough. I'm guessing Caputova will be north of 60% in the runoff.

[Wikipedia delenda est]

I've been reading about Slovak politics recently, and I'm curious. Which parties in the most recent Parliamentary elections (2012, 2016) were seen as the most palatable to pro-European liberals? My guess would be SaS or OLANO, but the former seems too Euroskeptic and the latter seems too populist.

[Estrella]

I've been reading about Slovak politics recently, and I'm curious. Which parties in the most recent Parliamentary elections (2012, 2016) were seen as the most palatable to pro-European liberals? My guess would be SaS or OLANO, but the former seems too Euroskeptic and the latter seems too populist.

They mostly held their noses and voted for those two parties or Most-Híd (most*, but not all of their votes are Hungarian). In 2012, there was also SDKÚ (previously the largest centre-right party), which was dead by 2016 and replaced by #Sieť. Both of these parties were conservative, but pretty moderate and pro-European. Now there are also PS and Spolu, two virtually identical liberal/progressive parties that will probably get some of these voters.

* no pun intended

[Estrella]

(just posting this so that I have 20 posts and can post the map)

[Estrella]

A map of the first round results by district. Red = Čaputová, Grey = Šefčovič, Purple = Harabin. From Wikipedia.

[bigic]

Did any of the eliminated candidates (Harabin etc.) endorse one of the two second round candidates?

[bigic]

https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1107558356988973057

[Diouf]

Maros Sefcovic has spent 15 years building a reputation as a consummate Brussels insider. But if the deputy head of the European Commission is to become Slovakia’s next president, he will have to win over voters who strongly oppose the EU’s immigration policies, despise its liberal values and in some cases think the country should leave the bloc.

Mr Sefcovic, Slovakia’s EU commissioner, who competed — unsuccessfully — to become the Socialists’ lead candidate in the forthcoming European elections, will meet Zuzana Caputova, a liberal, pro-EU, anti-corruption lawyer, in the second round of the country’s presidential elections in two weeks.

Mr Sefcovic said on Sunday that he wanted to appeal to all Slovaks. But he also signalled he was prepared to take on Ms Caputova from the right, claiming that her “super-liberal agenda” was not in line with Slovakia’s Christian values.

“My perception of the world is shared by 60 per cent of people when we look at attitudes towards migrants, mandatory quotas [for EU member states]. I fought against this, Ms Caputova was rather in favour,” he said. “Bratislava shouldn’t decide everything,” he added, referring to Slovakia’s liberal-leaning capital whose electorate voted heavily in favour of his rival.

https://www.ft.com/content/c572379e-48af-11e9-8b7f-d49067e0f50d

[MaxQue]

https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1107558356988973057

Those numbers are giving at 65-35 victory for Caputova.

[Walmart_shopper]

Maros Sefcovic has spent 15 years building a reputation as a consummate Brussels insider. But if the deputy head of the European Commission is to become Slovakia’s next president, he will have to win over voters who strongly oppose the EU’s immigration policies, despise its liberal values and in some cases think the country should leave the bloc.

Mr Sefcovic, Slovakia’s EU commissioner, who competed — unsuccessfully — to become the Socialists’ lead candidate in the forthcoming European elections, will meet Zuzana Caputova, a liberal, pro-EU, anti-corruption lawyer, in the second round of the country’s presidential elections in two weeks.

Mr Sefcovic said on Sunday that he wanted to appeal to all Slovaks. But he also signalled he was prepared to take on Ms Caputova from the right, claiming that her “super-liberal agenda” was not in line with Slovakia’s Christian values.

“My perception of the world is shared by 60 per cent of people when we look at attitudes towards migrants, mandatory quotas [for EU member states]. I fought against this, Ms Caputova was rather in favour,” he said. “Bratislava shouldn’t decide everything,” he added, referring to Slovakia’s liberal-leaning capital whose electorate voted heavily in favour of his rival.

https://www.ft.com/content/c572379e-48af-11e9-8b7f-d49067e0f50d

It's always weird to see politicians are are massively behind in the polls going on and on about "sixty percent of the country shares my values." I don't know a lot about out Slovakia, but it really doesn't seem like Slovakia of 2019 is the Slovakia he's talking about and obviously hoping for.

[Estrella]

Maros Sefcovic has spent 15 years building a reputation as a consummate Brussels insider. But if the deputy head of the European Commission is to become Slovakia’s next president, he will have to win over voters who strongly oppose the EU’s immigration policies, despise its liberal values and in some cases think the country should leave the bloc.

Mr Sefcovic, Slovakia’s EU commissioner, who competed — unsuccessfully — to become the Socialists’ lead candidate in the forthcoming European elections, will meet Zuzana Caputova, a liberal, pro-EU, anti-corruption lawyer, in the second round of the country’s presidential elections in two weeks.

Mr Sefcovic said on Sunday that he wanted to appeal to all Slovaks. But he also signalled he was prepared to take on Ms Caputova from the right, claiming that her “super-liberal agenda” was not in line with Slovakia’s Christian values.

“My perception of the world is shared by 60 per cent of people when we look at attitudes towards migrants, mandatory quotas [for EU member states]. I fought against this, Ms Caputova was rather in favour,” he said. “Bratislava shouldn’t decide everything,” he added, referring to Slovakia’s liberal-leaning capital whose electorate voted heavily in favour of his rival.

https://www.ft.com/content/c572379e-48af-11e9-8b7f-d49067e0f50d

It's always weird to see politicians are are massively behind in the polls going on and on about "sixty percent of the country shares my values." I don't know a lot about out Slovakia, but it really doesn't seem like Slovakia of 2019 is the Slovakia he's talking about and obviously hoping for.

Sixty percent of the country does share his values, but a lot more than sixty percent also detests his party. For a lot of people, this election is gonna be about holding their noses and voting for what they see as the lesser evil.

[Walmart_shopper]

Maros Sefcovic has spent 15 years building a reputation as a consummate Brussels insider. But if the deputy head of the European Commission is to become Slovakia’s next president, he will have to win over voters who strongly oppose the EU’s immigration policies, despise its liberal values and in some cases think the country should leave the bloc.

Mr Sefcovic, Slovakia’s EU commissioner, who competed — unsuccessfully — to become the Socialists’ lead candidate in the forthcoming European elections, will meet Zuzana Caputova, a liberal, pro-EU, anti-corruption lawyer, in the second round of the country’s presidential elections in two weeks.

Mr Sefcovic said on Sunday that he wanted to appeal to all Slovaks. But he also signalled he was prepared to take on Ms Caputova from the right, claiming that her “super-liberal agenda” was not in line with Slovakia’s Christian values.

“My perception of the world is shared by 60 per cent of people when we look at attitudes towards migrants, mandatory quotas [for EU member states]. I fought against this, Ms Caputova was rather in favour,” he said. “Bratislava shouldn’t decide everything,” he added, referring to Slovakia’s liberal-leaning capital whose electorate voted heavily in favour of his rival.

https://www.ft.com/content/c572379e-48af-11e9-8b7f-d49067e0f50d

It's always weird to see politicians are are massively behind in the polls going on and on about "sixty percent of the country shares my values." I don't know a lot about out Slovakia, but it really doesn't seem like Slovakia of 2019 is the Slovakia he's talking about and obviously hoping for.

Sixty percent of the country does share his values, but a lot more than sixty percent also detests his party. For a lot of people, this election is gonna be about holding their noses and voting for what they see as the lesser evil.

Then why didn't that supposed conservative majority rally to someone like Harabin or anyone else who isn't weighed down with the massive baggage of Smer?

In any case, with turnout consistently under 50% it's to say a whole lot about the country as a whole.

[Estrella]

Maros Sefcovic has spent 15 years building a reputation as a consummate Brussels insider. But if the deputy head of the European Commission is to become Slovakia’s next president, he will have to win over voters who strongly oppose the EU’s immigration policies, despise its liberal values and in some cases think the country should leave the bloc.

Mr Sefcovic, Slovakia’s EU commissioner, who competed — unsuccessfully — to become the Socialists’ lead candidate in the forthcoming European elections, will meet Zuzana Caputova, a liberal, pro-EU, anti-corruption lawyer, in the second round of the country’s presidential elections in two weeks.

Mr Sefcovic said on Sunday that he wanted to appeal to all Slovaks. But he also signalled he was prepared to take on Ms Caputova from the right, claiming that her “super-liberal agenda” was not in line with Slovakia’s Christian values.

“My perception of the world is shared by 60 per cent of people when we look at attitudes towards migrants, mandatory quotas [for EU member states]. I fought against this, Ms Caputova was rather in favour,” he said. “Bratislava shouldn’t decide everything,” he added, referring to Slovakia’s liberal-leaning capital whose electorate voted heavily in favour of his rival.

https://www.ft.com/content/c572379e-48af-11e9-8b7f-d49067e0f50d

It's always weird to see politicians are are massively behind in the polls going on and on about "sixty percent of the country shares my values." I don't know a lot about out Slovakia, but it really doesn't seem like Slovakia of 2019 is the Slovakia he's talking about and obviously hoping for.

Sixty percent of the country does share his values, but a lot more than sixty percent also detests his party. For a lot of people, this election is gonna be about holding their noses and voting for what they see as the lesser evil.

Then why didn't that supposed conservative majority rally to someone like Harabin or anyone else who isn't weighed down with the massive baggage of Smer?

In any case, with turnout consistently under 50% it's to say a whole lot about the country as a whole.

Most of the country might disagree with Čaputová on social issues, but she didn't talk much about them (and it's not like she could do anything about them as a president) and her image of an ordinary person fighting against corrupt authorities helped her more than, say, registered partnerships hurt her.

Also, and I'm just guessing here, one of the reasons the turnout was so low could be the limited options for non-Smer (social) conservatives: Harabin has his own baggage of scandals and a very unlikeable personality, Kotleba is way too extreme for most people, Mikloško is pro-EU and none of the other candidates were relevant.

[Walmart_shopper]

Maros Sefcovic has spent 15 years building a reputation as a consummate Brussels insider. But if the deputy head of the European Commission is to become Slovakia’s next president, he will have to win over voters who strongly oppose the EU’s immigration policies, despise its liberal values and in some cases think the country should leave the bloc.

Mr Sefcovic, Slovakia’s EU commissioner, who competed — unsuccessfully — to become the Socialists’ lead candidate in the forthcoming European elections, will meet Zuzana Caputova, a liberal, pro-EU, anti-corruption lawyer, in the second round of the country’s presidential elections in two weeks.

Mr Sefcovic said on Sunday that he wanted to appeal to all Slovaks. But he also signalled he was prepared to take on Ms Caputova from the right, claiming that her “super-liberal agenda” was not in line with Slovakia’s Christian values.

“My perception of the world is shared by 60 per cent of people when we look at attitudes towards migrants, mandatory quotas [for EU member states]. I fought against this, Ms Caputova was rather in favour,” he said. “Bratislava shouldn’t decide everything,” he added, referring to Slovakia’s liberal-leaning capital whose electorate voted heavily in favour of his rival.

https://www.ft.com/content/c572379e-48af-11e9-8b7f-d49067e0f50d

It's always weird to see politicians are are massively behind in the polls going on and on about "sixty percent of the country shares my values." I don't know a lot about out Slovakia, but it really doesn't seem like Slovakia of 2019 is the Slovakia he's talking about and obviously hoping for.

Sixty percent of the country does share his values, but a lot more than sixty percent also detests his party. For a lot of people, this election is gonna be about holding their noses and voting for what they see as the lesser evil.

Then why didn't that supposed conservative majority rally to someone like Harabin or anyone else who isn't weighed down with the massive baggage of Smer?

In any case, with turnout consistently under 50% it's to say a whole lot about the country as a whole.

Most of the country might disagree with Čaputová on social issues, but she didn't talk much about them (and it's not like she could do anything about them as a president) and her image of an ordinary person fighting against corrupt authorities helped her more than, say, registered partnerships hurt her.

Also, and I'm just guessing here, one of the reasons the turnout was so low could be the limited options for non-Smer (social) conservatives: Harabin has his own baggage of scandals and a very unlikeable personality, Kotleba is way too extreme for most people, Mikloško is pro-EU and none of the other candidates were relevant.

Interesting. But it's probably symptomatic of cultural change going on in Slovakia that her unapologetic liberalism on tough issues is not hurting her candidacy and that the "Save Christian Values" agenda doesn't have a ton of political cache.

[Estrella]

The second round is taking place today. Polls close at 22:00 CET, probably the best site to watch the results live is again volby.sme.sk.

In 2014 (a 59-41 defeat of the Smer candidate) the turnout was 50.5%. My prediction for this election is something like 60 to 65% for Čaputová, with turnout similar to 2014, or perhaps lower, because everybody thinks that her victory is a foregone conclusion. But who knows, maybe I'm totally off (and all the pollsters too) ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

58.36% Zuzana Čaputová
41.64% Maroš Šefčovič

Turnout: 56.83%

[Walmart_shopper]

My prediction: Caputova 63-37; turnout @ 55 percent.

[Donerail]

Caputova with the momentum, I'll say 65-35

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

95% of votes counted

Čaputová 58.2
Šefčovič 41.8

[Oryxslayer]

My prediction:

58.36% Zuzana Čaputová
41.64% Maroš Šefčovič

Turnout: 56.83%

Good Prediction.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1112131589654368257

[Estrella]

Final result:

Zuzana Čaputová 58.4% (1,056,582 votes)
Maroš Šefčovič 41.6% (752,403 votes)

Turnout ended up being really low, just 41.8%. Many of Čaputová's voters were sure that she had it in the bag and stayed home.

The best rest region for Čaputová was Bratislava, the capital (73.4%). Šefčovič won only one region, the poor eastern Prešov, with 51.0%