UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, The End of May

[AndyHogan14]

The UK and Ireland didn't have a customs union before they joined the EEC together in 1973; the customs posts on the border were themselves not closed until the Single Market was created in 1992.

I though the customs posts were just there as a response to the troubles? No? So, the Common Travel Area is/was not a customs union?

[Silent Hunter]

There were British army checkpoints for the Troubles, yes, but the Customs posts pre-date that. They were established when Ireland gained its independence in 1922... this was a country that used to ban contraception after all.

The CTA is a free travel area, although it technically only applies for UK and Irish citizens; the guards check everyone landing at Dublin airport for example.

[Sestak]

Welp, we’re four days away from Brexit Day as of right now.

[CumbrianLefty]

Thank you for letting us know this, we had no idea.

[Former President tack50]

The big date is probably the 10th of April, that's when the European Council meets and decides whether or not to give an extension.

Of course, remember that now any extension would need to include European Parliament elections and some sort of way forward to break the stalemate, unless Labour somehow starts backing May's deal.

Otherwise it's a final showdown between No Deal and rescinding article 50.

[Middle-aged Europe]

It seems to me that Labour should jump on a confirmatory referendum on May's deal.

Remain vs. May's deal...I think we know how that would turn out. 😁

Exactly, which is why the Tories won't agree with it.

But if that’s May’s offer to Labour, then I see a narrow chance of it getting through the Commons with Tory, Labour, Lib Dem, and SNP votes. It would destroy the Tory party, but maybe May just doesn’t care about the ERG and their ilk in her party any more.

If Brexit leads to the breakup of the Tories (which is not and perhaps never was a completely impossible scenario goven the variety of opinions on the EU membership within that party), that's the question I would then like to ask David Cameron, Boris Johnson, Theresa May, Jacob Rees-Mogg etc.: Why did you assume that holding a referendum on the EU membership and/or pushing for leaving the EU could be survived by your party?

[Silent Hunter]

The big date is probably the 10th of April, that's when the European Council meets and decides whether or not to give an extension.

Of course, remember that now any extension would need to include European Parliament elections and some sort of way forward to break the stalemate, unless Labour somehow starts backing May's deal.

Otherwise it's a final showdown between No Deal and rescinding article 50.

May has indicated she would hold elections and while the EU would want a clear plan, they'll probably settle for a long extension under heavy conditions.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why did you assume that holding a referendum on the EU membership and/or pushing for leaving the EU could be survived by your party?

Cameron actually thought that it would be the checkmate move that would settle the European question within the Conservative Party for good, routing the 'bastards' and cementing his faction firmly in control for ever in the process.

That one worked out well didn't it.

[brucejoel99]

Why did you assume that holding a referendum on the EU membership and/or pushing for leaving the EU could be survived by your party?

Cameron actually thought that it would be the checkmate move that would settle the European question within the Conservative Party for good, routing the 'bastards' and cementing his faction firmly in control for ever in the process.

That one worked out well didn't it.

Something something come at the king, you best not miss.

[Middle-aged Europe]

So, Tusk and Merkel both seem to be supporting a year-long Article 50 extension now, while Macron still thinks that this period is way too long.

Meanwhile, the House of Commons approved May's request to extend Article 50 until June 30. The most no votes ironically came from the Tories:

Conservatives: 97
DUP: 9
Labour: 3 (Ronnie Campbell, Stephen Hepburn, Kate Hoey)
Independents: 1 (Frank Field)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Tusk's draft for tomorrow's summit:

[Silent Hunter]

I doubt it will be a year; six months might end up being the compromise.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Deal or No Deal UK edition.

[CumbrianLefty]

I doubt it will be a year; six months might end up being the compromise.

Until the start of 2020 possibly?

[brucejoel99]

I doubt it will be a year; six months might end up being the compromise.

But Tusk & Merkel are fully behind a year-long extension, & the French have already dropped their opposition to a year-long extension in exchange for strict conditions being placed on the UK, so my money would be on the European Council agreeing to an extension through March 31, 2020, while granting the UK the ability to leave the EU earlier if the withdrawal agreement is ratified.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Deal or No Deal UK edition.

Indecision 2019: The Second Extension

[Middle-aged Europe]

Macron is expected to demand that the UK is giving up its seat on the European Commission in exchange for a long extension:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/10/uk-set-to-lose-european-commissioner-role-over-brexit-delay

[Silent Hunter]

I think we'd deserve that to be honest.

[IceAgeComing]

I don't see how that would be possible though; would require a treaty change which well they take forever.

[Blair]

Yep; and it's clearly just Macron briefing about how aggressive he's being before he accepts whatever weaker limits the EU put in place.

[CumbrianLefty]

Macron posturing, you say?

How very unlike him.

[Middle-aged Europe]

So, it is being reported that Merkel wants an extension until December 31, while Macron wants another short extension until immediately before the EP election in May unless the UK is willing to make further concessions. A compromise extension until October is being floated.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Majority of EU leaders seem to favour a long extension, while France seems to insist now that no extension should last beyond June (ironically taking Theresa May's position now).

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1116085295794073600


https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1116089804419158016

[Helsinkian]

Sounds like 31 October could be the new date...