Which of the Following Southern Chambers are Democrats Most Likely to Take?

[Frodo]

With about two months before Election Day, what does everyone think now?

[Jay 🏳️‍⚧️]

Texas House, 100%.

The gerrymander seems to be on the verge of absolute collapse after a string of favorable polls for TX Democrats

[Frodo]

Texas House, 100%.

The gerrymander seems to be on the verge of absolute collapse after a string of favorable polls for TX Democrats

It is amazing -it is not long ago when Republicans used to outnumber Democrats by more than 2-to-1 margins in both houses in the Texas legislature during Obama's presidency.  

[Indy Texas]

Texas House, 100%.

The gerrymander seems to be on the verge of absolute collapse after a string of favorable polls for TX Democrats

It is amazing -it is not long ago when Republicans used to outnumber Democrats by more than 2-to-1 margins in both houses in the Texas legislature during Obama's presidency.  

After the 2008 elections, the Texas House was effectively tied, with 76 Republicans and 74 Democrats.

After the 2010 elections, the Republicans had a supermajority with 101 seats to the Democrats' 49.

How'd they do it? Complete collapse of the remaining ancestral Democratic vote in rural Texas, anemic Hispanic turnout in South Texas, and clawing back some of the suburban seats the Democrats had picked up in 2006 and 2008.

[Samof94]

North Carolina is basically Virginia in the mid to late aughts.

[Oryxslayer]

So I commented in this thread before, so lets see how things changed:

NC did go through another round of redistricting and while both maps still favor Republicans, the door is slightly open for Democrats.

GA and TX Senate are still out of reach, like they were in 2019.

FL is just barely, like a 5% case, of being competitive. 95% of circumstances have both chambers remaining in Republican hands. This in practical terms is Safe R, like it was in 2019.

TX house has moved fairly convincingly onto the battlefield. The Dem House seat polls are internals, but they and the presidential toplines point towards a clear contest. It's certainly on the same level as the NC chambers.

Overall, right now I say ~1.5 of the three realistic chambers (NC Sen, NC House, TX House) flip to the Democrats. Now 1.5 isn't a whole number, but things will be pushed in October.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

We've gone from "The State House well absolutely not flip" to "It is absolutely flippable" in less than 2 years.

It's amazing how much the narrative around Texas has changed

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Texas House, 100%.

The gerrymander seems to be on the verge of absolute collapse after a string of favorable polls for TX Democrats

Hopefully that means a US Congressional seat redistricting is coming soon, so we can finally be rid of the Pirate and his ridiculous district.

[Jay 🏳️‍⚧️]

Texas House, 100%.

The gerrymander seems to be on the verge of absolute collapse after a string of favorable polls for TX Democrats

Hopefully that means a US Congressional seat redistricting is coming soon, so we can finally be rid of the Pirate and his ridiculous district.

Well redistricting was going to happen next spring anyways because census. Also Texas is gaining 3 or so seats, so they might just draw Crenshaw into a safer R district no matter who wins the State House

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Texas House, 100%.

The gerrymander seems to be on the verge of absolute collapse after a string of favorable polls for TX Democrats

Hopefully that means a US Congressional seat redistricting is coming soon, so we can finally be rid of the Pirate and his ridiculous district.

Well redistricting was going to happen next spring anyways because census. Also Texas is gaining 3 or so seats, so they might just draw Crenshaw into a safer R district no matter who wins the State House

You're probably right, unfortunately.

[Frodo]

An excellent run-down on Democratic chances on flipping the Florida legislature from the Florida Times-Union:

To control redistricting, Republicans must hold on to the Florida Legislature. Here are Democrats' top targets:

[lfromnj]

Texas House, 100%.

The gerrymander seems to be on the verge of absolute collapse after a string of favorable polls for TX Democrats

Hopefully that means a US Congressional seat redistricting is coming soon, so we can finally be rid of the Pirate and his ridiculous district.

A narrow Texas D majority might involve some Bribing, especially due to declining black influence in Houston.

[Indy Texas]

Texas House, 100%.

The gerrymander seems to be on the verge of absolute collapse after a string of favorable polls for TX Democrats

Hopefully that means a US Congressional seat redistricting is coming soon, so we can finally be rid of the Pirate and his ridiculous district.

We won't be rid of him, but his district will probably get less ridiculous. Just give him northeastern Harris County, maybe even the northwestern portion that's absurdly in Michael McCaul's Austin-based district now.

Of course, he will likely end up drawn out of his own district since he lives in the Democratic portion that's inside the Beltway. It doesn't make a difference in terms of his eligibility to run, but it's rather amusing that he gets elected on the backs of exurban fundamentalists but doesn't want to live amongst them.