MI-Emerson: Trump down 2 to 8 points
Skye:
Biden v. Trump: 54%-46%
Klobuchar v. Trump: 53%-47%
Sanders v. Trump: 52%-47%
Harris v. Trump: 51%-49%
Warren v. Trump:51%-49%
Quote
Statewide, President Trump has a 52% disapproval and 40% approval (registered voters, March 7-10, mm, n=743, +/- 3.5%). More concerning for the President is that 56% of Michigan voters said they are unlikely to vote for Trump (of which 52% are very unlikely to vote for him); 44% of voters say they are likely to vote for Trump (37% are very likely).
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/michigan-2020-primary-biden-with-strong-lead-but-sanders-waiting-in-the-wings
RI:
Pretty good poll for Trump
ElectionsGuy:
56% say they are unlikely to vote for Trump but he gets consistently more than 44% of the vote. I know its a poll with no undecideds results but I think we can confirm there is definitely a shy Trump effect in the midwest, as the Marquette Wisconsin poll showed similar results. Michigan is nothing more than tilt D at this point.
Xing:
I don't think we can really assume that polling biases will be the same every year (except in some states in particular, where there really are systematic problems.) Polls weren't really far off at all in MI/PA/WI in 2018, and I could see a Democratic candidate who runs a strong campaign in the Midwest possibly even beating their polls if they get good turnout. Still, this early, Michigan should be considered a Toss-Up.
Dr Oz Lost Party!:
So, Harris does 7 points better than Klobuchar in the primary but does 6 points worse than her in the general? Yuh.
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