MI-Emerson: Trump down 2 to 8 points

[Skye]

Biden v. Trump: 54%-46%

Klobuchar v. Trump: 53%-47%

Sanders v. Trump: 52%-47%

Harris v. Trump: 51%-49%

Warren v. Trump:51%-49%

Statewide, President Trump has a 52% disapproval and 40% approval (registered voters, March 7-10, mm, n=743, +/- 3.5%). More concerning for the President is that 56% of Michigan voters said they are unlikely to vote for Trump (of which 52% are very unlikely to vote for him); 44% of voters say they are likely to vote for Trump (37% are very likely).

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/michigan-2020-primary-biden-with-strong-lead-but-sanders-waiting-in-the-wings

[RI]

Pretty good poll for Trump

[ElectionsGuy]

56% say they are unlikely to vote for Trump but he gets consistently more than 44% of the vote. I know its a poll with no undecideds results but I think we can confirm there is definitely a shy Trump effect in the midwest, as the Marquette Wisconsin poll showed similar results. Michigan is nothing more than tilt D at this point.

[Xing]

I don't think we can really assume that polling biases will be the same every year (except in some states in particular, where there really are systematic problems.) Polls weren't really far off at all in MI/PA/WI in 2018, and I could see a Democratic candidate who runs a strong campaign in the Midwest possibly even beating their polls if they get good turnout. Still, this early, Michigan should be considered a Toss-Up.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So, Harris does 7 points better than Klobuchar in the primary but does 6 points worse than her in the general? Yuh.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

So, Harris does 7 points better than Klobuchar in the primary but does 6 points worse than her in the general? Yuh.

Probably because 1) Klobuchar is well liked among those who know her, but not their first choice, but more second and third choice 2) Voters are forced to choose between one of the two because Emerson refuses to include the undecided option and 3) Harris might have some kind of fan group who are highly enthuasistic of her (highly educated, blacks) but less appeal to swing voters / rural voters or less name recognition.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So, Harris does 7 points better than Klobuchar in the primary but does 6 points worse than her in the general? Yuh.

Probably because 1) Klobuchar is well liked among those who know her, but not their first choice, but more second and third choice 2) Voters are forced to choose between one of the two because Emerson refuses to include the undecided option and 3) Harris might have some kind of fan group who are highly enthuasistic of her (highly educated, blacks) but less appeal to swing voters / rural voters or less name recognition.

Klobuchar literally has half the name recognition Kamala does. The poll doesn’t make sense. Emerson doesn’t really have a good reputation.

[lfromnj]

Really not good for Peters if he is only up by 1 in a poll where Trump is down by 2 to 8.

[Bumaye]

So Kamala is leading by as much as Hillary did in the last election. That worked out well.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

So, Harris does 7 points better than Klobuchar in the primary but does 6 points worse than her in the general? Yuh.

Probably because 1) Klobuchar is well liked among those who know her, but not their first choice, but more second and third choice 2) Voters are forced to choose between one of the two because Emerson refuses to include the undecided option and 3) Harris might have some kind of fan group who are highly enthuasistic of her (highly educated, blacks) but less appeal to swing voters / rural voters or less name recognition.

Klobuchar literally has half the name recognition Kamala does. The poll doesn’t make sense. Emerson doesn’t really have a good reputation.

But Harris might've higher name recognition among (reluctant) Trump voters, which would explain the results. I'm not saying it's a good poll, i'm just trying to explain the results.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So Kamala is leading by as much as Hillary did in the last election. That worked out well.

No mention of Warren.

[Woody]

Proof that Trump can still be competitive in the midwest. The tariffs didn't take a toll on Trump after all.

[OSR stands with Israel]

If Trump loses MI by more than 2.5 points he will lose the election, I can still seem him winning WI if the margin is under 2.5 Points but not greater.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Pretty good poll for Trump

How do you figure? I don’t recall Bush or Obama trailing this early in any swing states in their re-election bids

Well by this time in 2003 I think Bush was expected to sweep 40+ states in tune to a landslide victory as his approval was still in the high 60s.


And of Course, the most famous example is in 1991 where Bush Sr was expected to be reelected in the biggest landslide since 1820 (a potential 50 state sweep). I read an article from even late 1991 where it says Jay Leno joked that a new poll between President Bush and Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton shows Clinton only winning his home state of Arkansas and DC so it seems like he is more of an old Democrat to me


Clinton though in 1995 I believe was considered to be DOA at this point of his Presidency .

[Sirius_]

So, Harris does 7 points better than Klobuchar in the primary but does 6 points worse than her in the general? Yuh.

Probably because 1) Klobuchar is well liked among those who know her, but not their first choice, but more second and third choice 2) Voters are forced to choose between one of the two because Emerson refuses to include the undecided option and 3) Harris might have some kind of fan group who are highly enthuasistic of her (highly educated, blacks) but less appeal to swing voters / rural voters or less name recognition.

Klobuchar literally has half the name recognition Kamala does. The poll doesn’t make sense. Emerson doesn’t really have a good reputation.

Despite having more accurate midterm polls than nearly everyone else.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

lol