I've created a spreadsheet that takes the partisanship of states and districts and the current generic ballot margin to predict the results of elections. It uses a logistic function to turn the predicted margin of victory into the probability of victory.
To find the overall probability of winning the presidential election or control of a legislative chamber, I took the probability of the tipping point state or district (US House: NE-2, US Senate: NC, US Pres.: WI, 2019 FL House: Not up). This isn't a perfect measure as it would be completely off in extreme circumstances, but I think it should suffice given the complexity of determining the prediction otherwise.
If you have any US elections you'd like me to add, leave them below. Feedback and questions are appreciated.
Polls of the generic ballot are courtesy of FiveThirtyEight.
Partisanship data are courtesy of Daily Kos, Florida Division of Elections, and Federal Election Commission.
What's happened to the file?
