Political geography without the Great Migration

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

This is fantastic data! Thanks for posting this! I never knew that Trump wouldn't be president if blacks stayed clustered in the South and the Great Migration never occurred, but it makes perfect sense!

The GOP hold on the South is very tenuous beneath the surface and it depends on the fact that Whites outnumber blacks by just enough so that their 75% with whites can outnumber 90% D blacks.

Narrow the composition gaps and the map changes drastically.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

No Great Migration also likely means no Northern Cities racial backlash among working/middle-class whites.

It may also mean no major civil rights bills, at least in the 1960s, since the growing power of non-disenfranchised Northern blacks was a major part of what pushed Northern politicians to back the civil rights movement.

It also likely means that the Democrats don't embrace Civil Rights either, as blacks are not forming part of the urban coalition in the Northern states either.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

No Great Migration also likely means no Northern Cities racial backlash among working/middle-class whites.

It may also mean no major civil rights bills, at least in the 1960s, since the growing power of non-disenfranchised Northern blacks was a major part of what pushed Northern politicians to back the civil rights movement.

It also likely means that the Democrats don't embrace Civil Rights either, as blacks are not forming part of the urban coalition in the Northern states either.

I could see the GOP taking a more active role in civil rights legislation, especially voting rights, as it would help the party break into the South.

This would in turn harden the core of Democratic support in the South as urban+black belt white, which would flee to their own white flight communities.

Republicans would then make gains among the upcountry whites. So basically the dynamic we see growing in the south with non-college whites being Republican, college whites democratic, but with African-Americans flipped.

This sorta is what happened in 1928, though blacks couldn't vote obviously.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Northern whites would be much more Liberal and European like, without the racial polarization.

Like they are in Iowa and rural MI?  Keep in mind the places in the north with large black populations like Chicago and Detriot have fairly liberal white populations.  Racial polarization in the midwest isn't like the south

It wasn't that way back in the 1960's, 70's, and 80's. Urban ethnic whites joined forces with high end Republican suburbia to give Nixon his victories in key industrial states like MI, ILL, OH and also CA. The same thing happened in 1980 with Reagan, added by Anderson peeling off liberals in those cities as well.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Northern whites would be much more Liberal and European like, without the racial polarization.

Certain segments yes, but the irony is who would be their vehicle for advancement? Blacks in the south keep the Democrats glued to their race conscious base, which makes them the party of high end Southerners. Meanwhile Republicans would remain the party of Northern Business interests. So both parties would be more moderate and open to government intervention, it is unlikely that it would be a massive shift to the left barring a collapse for one of the parties or the supplanting of one of them by the Progressives at some point.