Hypothetical Future Landslides (State/County Maps)

[ElectionsGuy]

For this exercise, I'm going to consider a landslide a 20 point popular vote win, something that is unlikely in this point in time. However, that's why I wanted to make a thread about this, as we're so unlikely to see it. Going 2020 and beyond, what would a 20 point landslide for each side look like? First state maps. Keep in mind that in a 20 point landslide more powerful swings are going to take place in areas where there's existing room to grow, this means elastic red states and suburbs/rural areas for Democrats and elastic blue states and certain urban/suburban areas for Republicans. That's why I believe Vermont would vote Republican and Montana/Alaska Democratic.

Republican lanslide

426 - 112

Democratic landslide

456 - 82

The Democrats would be down to just four states while the Republicans would still have 14 but still less electoral votes. The largest state in the nation would still vote Democratic in a landslide while the largest state Republicans would have is Tennessee.

Now the County Maps. First, a Republican landslide would look like a true landslide and almost the entire map would be red with enclaves of blue. Keep in mind there were some close calls, and I incorporated current trends into my decisions, as well as what I've mentioned about how certain areas would swing.



Democratic landslide...



Also, feel free to share your maps and thoughts.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Wow San Diego County would go Dem in a 20 point landslide , that’s just stunning .

Bush nearly won it by double digits in 04

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

If that GOP landslide map is supposed to take place in the future, I think you're really overestimating Republicans in the suburbs.


Also the black belt seems a bit redder than I see as being reasonable, particularly in the Carolinas.


But anyway, very interesting maps and I look forward to seeing the Democratic landslide county map as well  

[Politician]

That Republican landslide map could be the 2020 result if Biden is the nominee and is accused of sexual assault.

[ElectionsGuy]

Wow San Diego County would go Dem in a 20 point landslide , that’s just stunning .

Bush nearly won it by double digits in 04

Yeah, Hillary won it by 20 and its trending D hard so it's pretty much a solid D county now. Orange County would probably be a narrow (Romney/McCain) margin in this case.

If that GOP landslide map is supposed to take place in the future, I think you're really overestimating Republicans in the suburbs.


Also the black belt seems a bit redder than I see as being reasonable, particularly in the Carolinas.


But anyway, very interesting maps and I look forward to seeing the Democratic landslide county map as well 

Thanks. In a huge landslide, I don't think its too unreasonable for Republicans to win about 25-30% of the black vote and do a bit better with rural blacks in the south. Some of those counties are only 57-65% Democratic with 20-30% margins.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Wow San Diego County would go Dem in a 20 point landslide , that’s just stunning .

Bush nearly won it by double digits in 04

Yeah, Hillary won it by 20 and its trending D hard so it's pretty much a solid D county now. Orange County would probably be a narrow (Romney/McCain) margin in this case.

If that GOP landslide map is supposed to take place in the future, I think you're really overestimating Republicans in the suburbs.


Also the black belt seems a bit redder than I see as being reasonable, particularly in the Carolinas.


But anyway, very interesting maps and I look forward to seeing the Democratic landslide county map as well  

Thanks. In a huge landslide, I don't think its too unreasonable for Republicans to win about 25-30% of the black vote and do a bit better with rural blacks in the south. Some of those counties are only 57-65% Democratic with 20-30% margins.

If GOP is winning by 20 points, I think they win OC by around 14-15 points, San Diego by 2-3 points.
They would have to come within 6-7 points in CA as well

 

[ElectionsGuy]

Democratic landslide county map is up.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Democratic landslide county map is up.

Could you possibly do the results for these landslides by Congressional District? I'd be very interested in seeing those as well.

[cwh2018]

I think you are being too kind to the democrats in the republican landslide county map,and not generous enough to the democrats in their win.  What are the totals in terms of counties won out of interest.  A 20 point win is at almost Nixon levels and beats the '84 election margin.  I reckon for the GOP you should have the dem at under 300 counties.  In the dem victory scenario surely the democrat is at least over 1000,probably anywhere from 1200-1500 counties won.

[ElectionsGuy]

Democratic landslide county map is up.

Could you possibly do the results for these landslides by Congressional District? I'd be very interested in seeing those as well.

Here ya go.

I think you are being too kind to the democrats in the republican landslide county map,and not generous enough to the democrats in their win.  What are the totals in terms of counties won out of interest.  A 20 point win is at almost Nixon levels and beats the '84 election margin.  I reckon for the GOP you should have the dem at under 300 counties.  In the dem victory scenario surely the democrat is at least over 1000,probably anywhere from 1200-1500 counties won.

approx. 194 for the Republican landslide map (I counted in my head so could be off a few). No idea for Democratic landslide map.

Here's the thing; we're not in the 70's or 80's anymore. We're in a time of intense geographic polarization, so comparing to previous election landslides looked like simply isn't appropriate. If you want to share what you think would happen then your welcome to do so.