TX Governor's Mansion 2022: Abbott 3rd term
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  TX Governor's Mansion 2022: Abbott 3rd term
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #25 on: November 26, 2019, 02:02:12 AM »

If Abbott was not disabled he would be a 2024 or 2028 contender; I see him as a future Republican AG.

We had a president who was in a wheelchair once, and he was elected president four times. If he hadn't died, he probably could have won a fifth. There was so much winning, they had to adopt a constitutional amendment to put a limit on the winning.
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« Reply #26 on: November 26, 2019, 05:32:11 AM »

Interesting fact about Abbott in 2018 is according to the exit polls he actually did worse than Trump with whites, 40% margin vs 43% for Trump but did better statewide because he did a lot better with black and hispanic voters. The county by county shift backs this up, he did much better than Trump in heavily hispanic areas whereas he basically matched or under-performed Trump in the whiter areas of the state.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #27 on: December 08, 2019, 12:50:52 PM »

Interesting fact about Abbott in 2018 is according to the exit polls he actually did worse than Trump with whites, 40% margin vs 43% for Trump but did better statewide because he did a lot better with black and hispanic voters. The county by county shift backs this up, he did much better than Trump in heavily hispanic areas whereas he basically matched or under-performed Trump in the whiter areas of the state.

If I recall correctly, Abbott came within single digits in the three "Fajita Strip" districts of South Texas-those of Gonzalez, Cuellar, and Vela. He did significantly better in those districts than Cruz. Abbott of course, also won Will Hurd's district by a solid margin as well.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #28 on: December 08, 2019, 04:58:56 PM »

If 2022 is a Trump midterm, Abbott could easily lose.  Dems will have a much stronger candidate in 2022 after seeing how close Beto, etc. got in 2018.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #29 on: December 08, 2019, 05:27:36 PM »

If Abbott was not disabled he would be a 2024 or 2028 contender; I see him as a future Republican AG.

We had a president who was in a wheelchair once, and he was elected president four times. If he hadn't died, he probably could have won a fifth. There was so much winning, they had to adopt a constitutional amendment to put a limit on the winning.

I mean Bronz is probably right that being handicapped would hurt Abbott in a primary and general election, even if it’s a subconscious reason that people won’t admit or are aware of. And most Americans didn’t know FDR was crippled at the time, right?
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Libertas Vel Mors
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« Reply #30 on: December 08, 2019, 05:29:51 PM »

Interesting fact about Abbott in 2018 is according to the exit polls he actually did worse than Trump with whites, 40% margin vs 43% for Trump but did better statewide because he did a lot better with black and hispanic voters. The county by county shift backs this up, he did much better than Trump in heavily hispanic areas whereas he basically matched or under-performed Trump in the whiter areas of the state.

If I recall correctly, Abbott came within single digits in the three "Fajita Strip" districts of South Texas-those of Gonzalez, Cuellar, and Vela. He did significantly better in those districts than Cruz. Abbott of course, also won Will Hurd's district by a solid margin as well.

Abbott also won TX-7 and TX-32 by 5+ points.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #31 on: December 08, 2019, 05:33:36 PM »

Interesting fact about Abbott in 2018 is according to the exit polls he actually did worse than Trump with whites, 40% margin vs 43% for Trump but did better statewide because he did a lot better with black and hispanic voters. The county by county shift backs this up, he did much better than Trump in heavily hispanic areas whereas he basically matched or under-performed Trump in the whiter areas of the state.

If I recall correctly, Abbott came within single digits in the three "Fajita Strip" districts of South Texas-those of Gonzalez, Cuellar, and Vela. He did significantly better in those districts than Cruz. Abbott of course, also won Will Hurd's district by a solid margin as well.

Abbott also won TX-7 and TX-32 by 5+ points.

Well, yes, but Dems had basically conceded the race by October.  If anything, the surprising part was he only won by 12 instead of 20. 

I really think the moderately pro-life Dem who lost the primary runoff could have won it JBE style.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #32 on: December 08, 2019, 05:38:33 PM »

Interesting fact about Abbott in 2018 is according to the exit polls he actually did worse than Trump with whites, 40% margin vs 43% for Trump but did better statewide because he did a lot better with black and hispanic voters. The county by county shift backs this up, he did much better than Trump in heavily hispanic areas whereas he basically matched or under-performed Trump in the whiter areas of the state.

If I recall correctly, Abbott came within single digits in the three "Fajita Strip" districts of South Texas-those of Gonzalez, Cuellar, and Vela. He did significantly better in those districts than Cruz. Abbott of course, also won Will Hurd's district by a solid margin as well.

Abbott also won TX-7 and TX-32 by 5+ points.

Well, yes, but Dems had basically conceded the race by October.  If anything, the surprising part was he only won by 12 instead of 20. 

I really think the moderately pro-life Dem who lost the primary runoff could have won it JBE style.

No Democrat was going to beat Abbott in 2018. He was too popular and non-controversial.

It will take some idiot like Paxton or Patrick to be nominated for Democrats to have a good shot at the governorship anytime soon (as in within the next decade)
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