If 2016 trends continue indefinitely, what will the national map be in 2052? (user search)
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  If 2016 trends continue indefinitely, what will the national map be in 2052? (search mode)
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Author Topic: If 2016 trends continue indefinitely, what will the national map be in 2052?  (Read 1207 times)
lfromnj
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« on: February 27, 2019, 05:28:20 PM »

nj is actually trending d just masked by obamas overperformance in 2012 due to sandy. also IL literally SWUNG D in 2016
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1 on: February 27, 2019, 08:13:26 PM »

The question is as in the title. The 2018 midterms saw the trends from the 2016 election continue, in full force. Democrats made gains in urban and suburban areas, while Republicans gained in exurban and rural areas. Assuming that these trends continue on a nationwide basis, indefinitely, coupled with demographic changes (America is expected to become majority non-white by the 2040s), what will the national electoral map look like by 2052? Which states do you think will be Safe Democratic or Safe Republican by that time? Which ones will be swing states? What will a Democratic or Republican victory look like by then? What will the party coalitions look like?

Discuss below.

Trends don't continue indefinitely, so I assume this is just a "fun exercise."

Of course I know that trends don't continue indefinitely, but what we saw in the 2016 and 2018 elections could be the start of a process of gradual realignment. Such processes take decades to come to fruition.

This process has been happening since 96.

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