If 2016 trends continue indefinitely, what will the national map be in 2052?

[Calthrina950]

The question is as in the title. The 2018 midterms saw the trends from the 2016 election continue, in full force. Democrats made gains in urban and suburban areas, while Republicans gained in exurban and rural areas. Assuming that these trends continue on a nationwide basis, indefinitely, coupled with demographic changes (America is expected to become majority non-white by the 2040s), what will the national electoral map look like by 2052? Which states do you think will be Safe Democratic or Safe Republican by that time? Which ones will be swing states? What will a Democratic or Republican victory look like by then? What will the party coalitions look like?

Discuss below.

[Calthrina950]

Close election:

Battleground map:

nj is actually trending d just masked by obamas overperformance in 2012 due to sandy. also IL literally SWUNG D in 2016

These maps seem reasonable for the most part, but I agree with lfromnj about New Jersey and Illinois. New Jersey moved strongly towards the Democrats last year, as they nearly wiped out the state's Republican congressional delegation. It is becoming yet more diverse, and suburban voters seem to be abandoning the Republican Party in large numbers. I personally think New Jersey will still be Safe Democratic by 2050, and probably even more so than it is now. As for Illinois, not only is Chicago powerfully Democratic (and experiencing limited population loss, compared to other Midwestern cities), the Chicago suburbs (DuPage, Kane, Lake, Will, McHenry) are trending strongly towards the Democrats, canceling out Republican gains in Downstate Illinois. I think Cook County + the Chicago suburbs will keep Illinois in the Democratic column.

I would also argue that Minnesota and Pennsylvania will at least be tossup states in 2050. The Twin Cities and their suburbs are canceling out Republican gains in rural areas, while the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh suburbs, as well as places like Cumberland County, Lancaster County, etc. are moving towards the Democrats. However, I agree with Politician about most of the remaining states. Kansas will definitely be competitive by then, if Johnson County, Shawnee County, and Sedgwick County continue to trend Democratic (coupled with demographic change), and South Carolina will as well. I also think that the Upper New England states will go Republican, but I think Vermont will remain a Democratic stronghold. New Hampshire also seems to be trending towards the Democrats, not away from them.

[Calthrina950]

The question is as in the title. The 2018 midterms saw the trends from the 2016 election continue, in full force. Democrats made gains in urban and suburban areas, while Republicans gained in exurban and rural areas. Assuming that these trends continue on a nationwide basis, indefinitely, coupled with demographic changes (America is expected to become majority non-white by the 2040s), what will the national electoral map look like by 2052? Which states do you think will be Safe Democratic or Safe Republican by that time? Which ones will be swing states? What will a Democratic or Republican victory look like by then? What will the party coalitions look like?

Discuss below.

Trends don't continue indefinitely, so I assume this is just a "fun exercise."

Of course I know that trends don't continue indefinitely, but what we saw in the 2016 and 2018 elections could be the start of a process of gradual realignment. Such processes take decades to come to fruition.

[Calthrina950]

The question is as in the title. The 2018 midterms saw the trends from the 2016 election continue, in full force. Democrats made gains in urban and suburban areas, while Republicans gained in exurban and rural areas. Assuming that these trends continue on a nationwide basis, indefinitely, coupled with demographic changes (America is expected to become majority non-white by the 2040s), what will the national electoral map look like by 2052? Which states do you think will be Safe Democratic or Safe Republican by that time? Which ones will be swing states? What will a Democratic or Republican victory look like by then? What will the party coalitions look like?

Discuss below.

Trends don't continue indefinitely, so I assume this is just a "fun exercise."

Of course I know that trends don't continue indefinitely, but what we saw in the 2016 and 2018 elections could be the start of a process of gradual realignment. Such processes take decades to come to fruition.

This process has been happening since 96.

That is true, but it's looking more likely then not that it will continue for a few more decades.