Why did Kerry lose Virginia so badly in 2004?

[Smash255]

Obviously the state was more conservative back then, but it’s not like it wasn’t already considered a potential sleeper state in 2004. It was too close to call for a while on election night, and apparently there were polls showing a close race:  

Tuesday, August 03, 2004

In Virginia, the latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows President Bush with 49% of the vote and Senator Kerry with 46%. In Election 2000, Bush won Virginia by nine percentage points, beating Al Gore 53% to 44%. Last month, our Virginia poll found Bush leading 48% to 45%. The month before, it was Bush 47% Kerry 45%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2004/virginia_bush_49_kerry_46

I know these were conducted before the Republican convention, but I find it weird that the state swung Republican in 2004 given the rapid R collapse since then and Bush's underperformance in 2000.

Virginia still did trend Democratic in 2004, it just wasn't quite there yet.

[Smash255]

The War on Terror helped the GOP there but it still trended D. 2004 being a foreign policy dominated election (The only one since 1992) helped the GOP in many Affluent Suburbs that had been trending D.

If you see the trend line since 1996 this is how it goes

1996: R+10.45
2000: R+8.5
2004: R+5.8
2008: R+0.9
2012: Even
2016: D+3.2


I would say without the crash in 08 McCain probably narrowly wins Virginia in 2008 and its probably 3 points more Republican than nation as whole(He still loses the election as he still wins OH, IA and NV)

This is also interesting. Not much of a Democratic trend in 2012, but then again Republicans still had a lot of room for growth in the rural parts of the state, and Romney didn’t collapse in NOVA/Richmond suburbs/etc. like Trump. Still, it makes you wonder if the state was really winnable for Republicans in 2012 or if Romney's 4-point loss was actually an overperformance or at least a GOP best-case scenario that year.

Romney was probably the best Republican for the middle to upper middle class suburban voter that started to shift away from the GOP.   

[LiberalDem19]

Because he lost by 2.5 nationally. He lost VA by 4. The military population is what likely did him in there.

[Pericles]

Because he lost by 2.5 nationally. He lost VA by 4. The military population is what likely did him in there.

He lost VA by 8 points, though it was a pretty identical margin of defeat from Gore's VA loss in 2000 so the state trended D a bit in 2004 and that trend accelerated when it was contested by Obama in 2008.

[538Electoral]

As others have pointed out, VA was still a safe/likely Republican state at the time. I highly doubt the state was winnable for Kerry. Maybe if he won by a large margin nationally he could've gotten within 4-5%.

VA only swung 0.16% more Republican in 2004 anyway and even swung Democratic when compared to the national popular vote.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Bush losing Fairfax County in 2004 (even as he won the state) should have been a huge warning sign for the GOP.

[Redban]

I think Karl Rove says that Kerry could have won Virginia if he had challenged Virginia, and put resources into the state.

The issue is that Virginia had been Republican for so long that Democrats didn't realize that it had become a Democrat state until after.

Karl Rove, again, points to West Virginia as a comparison. West Virginia was considered a Democrat state for a while; Bill Clinton won it by a good margin. But then the GOP realized that it was a GOP state, they put resources into it, and it's been a GOP stronghold since 2000.

[Redban]

As others have pointed out, VA was still a safe/likely Republican state at the time. I highly doubt the state was winnable for Kerry. Maybe if he won by a large margin nationally he could've gotten within 4-5%.

VA only swung 0.16% more Republican in 2004 anyway and even swung Democratic when compared to the national popular vote.

Things don’t change so dramatically in 4 years. It was always a Democrat state. They just didn’t realize and put resources in the state until afterwards.

[El Betico]

I think Karl Rove says that Kerry could have won Virginia if he had challenged Virginia, and put resources into the state.

The issue is that Virginia had been Republican for so long that Democrats didn't realize that it had become a Democrat state until after.

Karl Rove, again, points to West Virginia as a comparison. West Virginia was considered a Democrat state for a while; Bill Clinton won it by a good margin. But then the GOP realized that it was a GOP state, they put resources into it, and it's been a GOP stronghold since 2000.

Yes, Rove said exactly that during 2012 Election Night on FoxNews, I rewatched their coverage just around 10 days ago.

Anyway, my opinion is that 2004 was still too early for a Dem presidential win there, particularly after 9/11 in a State with strong bounds to the military...maybe contesting it could have resulted in a milder defeat, maybe a 4-5 points one, but still a defeat...the Kerry strategy was clearly Gore States plus a big one, Florida and/or Ohio, and something smaller like New Hampshire and/or Nevada to compensate a possible similar loss in Gore States( like those he suffered in Iowa and New Mexico).

[Chips]

He didn't contest it at all. It was simply assumed to still be a solidly Republican state. Regardless, Some in the Kerry camp thought he could've been competitive in VA.

[Chips]

I think Karl Rove says that Kerry could have won Virginia if he had challenged Virginia, and put resources into the state.

The issue is that Virginia had been Republican for so long that Democrats didn't realize that it had become a Democrat state until after.

Karl Rove, again, points to West Virginia as a comparison. West Virginia was considered a Democrat state for a while; Bill Clinton won it by a good margin. But then the GOP realized that it was a GOP state, they put resources into it, and it's been a GOP stronghold since 2000.

You might've given me another timeline idea. A 2004 timeline where Bush wins most of the swing states but bare wins in VA and/or NC end up saving Kerry.

[bayareabay]

Fairfax county wasn't as urban and multicultural as it is now.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

John Kerry winning Fairfax county in 2004 was a precursor for 2008. In TX Collin county flipping D in 2024 is going to be a similar precursor for 2028.

[sting in the rafters]

To the Dems it was just another former Confederate state that hadn't voted D since '64.

[kwabbit]

John Kerry winning Fairfax county in 2004 was a precursor for 2008. In TX Collin county flipping D in 2024 is going to be a similar precursor for 2028.

I don't think this is the best analogy. In 2020 and 2024, TX will have been covered as a battleground state, even if Republicans still win it comfortably. TX flipping in 2028 won't be much of a surprise.