Why did Kerry lose Virginia so badly in 2004?

[MT Treasurer]

Obviously the state was more conservative back then, but it’s not like it wasn’t already considered a potential sleeper state in 2004. It was too close to call for a while on election night, and apparently there were polls showing a close race:  

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http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2004/virginia_bush_49_kerry_46

I know these were conducted before the Republican convention, but I find it weird that the state swung Republican in 2004 given the rapid R collapse since then and Bush's underperformance in 2000.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The War on Terror helped the GOP there but it still trended D. 2004 being a foreign policy dominated election (The only one since 1992) helped the GOP in many Affluent Suburbs that had been trending D.

If you see the trend line since 1996 this is how it goes

1996: R+10.45
2000: R+8.5
2004: R+5.8
2008: R+0.9
2012: Even
2016: D+3.2


I would say without the crash in 08 McCain probably narrowly wins Virginia in 2008 and its probably 3 points more Republican than nation as whole(He still loses the election as he still wins OH, IA and NV)

[MT Treasurer]

The War on Terror helped the GOP there but it still trended D. 2004 being a foreign policy dominated election (The only one since 1992) helped the GOP in many Affluent Suburbs that had been trending D.

If you see the trend line since 1996 this is how it goes

1996: R+10.45
2000: R+8.5
2004: R+5.8
2008: R+0.9
2012: Even
2016: D+3.2


I would say without the crash in 08 McCain probably narrowly wins Virginia in 2008 and its probably 3 points more Republican than nation as whole(He still loses the election as he still wins OH, IA and NV)

This is also interesting. Not much of a Democratic trend in 2012, but then again Republicans still had a lot of room for growth in the rural parts of the state, and Romney didn’t collapse in NOVA/Richmond suburbs/etc. like Trump. Still, it makes you wonder if the state was really winnable for Republicans in 2012 or if Romney's 4-point loss was actually an overperformance or at least a GOP best-case scenario that year.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The War on Terror helped the GOP there but it still trended D. 2004 being a foreign policy dominated election (The only one since 1992) helped the GOP in many Affluent Suburbs that had been trending D.

If you see the trend line since 1996 this is how it goes

1996: R+10.45
2000: R+8.5
2004: R+5.8
2008: R+0.9
2012: Even
2016: D+3.2


I would say without the crash in 08 McCain probably narrowly wins Virginia in 2008 and its probably 3 points more Republican than nation as whole(He still loses the election as he still wins OH, IA and NV)

This is also interesting. Not much of a Democratic trend in 2012, but then again Republicans still had a lot of room for growth in the rural parts of the state, and Romney didn’t collapse in NOVA/Richmond suburbs/etc. like Trump. Still, it makes you wonder if the state was really winnable for Republicans in 2012 or if Romney's 4-point loss was actually an overperformance or at least a GOP best-case scenario that year.

The state was definitely winnable for the GOP that year , Romney lead in many polls there and the polling averages almost tracked the national polls almost to a tee that year .


That year it was lol Ohio what was considered to be part of Obama’s blue wall and Obama led polls there throughout even when he trailed nationally

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Huge military/national security presence in VA in a year/election where being anti-war meant being anti-military, anti-American, etc.

[UWS]

Huge military/national security presence in VA in a year/election where being anti-war meant being anti-military, anti-American, etc.

This, and Virginia was still a red state at that time.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

The votes just weren't there in NOVA yet, and as others have mentioned, Kerry being anti-war (or at least pretending to be...) didn't play well here due to the large military presence in the state.


As for why Kerry didn't improve on Gore, it's because he only did slightly better than Gore in NOVA while doing significantly worse than him in rural areas.

[Comrade Funk]

Kerry never even contested it.

[Matty]

The answer is less interesting than it seems:

the simple fact is that the NOVA suburbs were MUCH MUCH smaller and less developed in 04 than in 08, 12, 16.

Many of these staunch nova dems were still living in DC and elsewhere because they couldn't find a home yet in the new nova neighborhoods.

[538Electoral]

In short, Kerry never really had a chance at winning the state.

[Arbitrage1980]

The answer is less interesting than it seems:

the simple fact is that the NOVA suburbs were MUCH MUCH smaller and less developed in 04 than in 08, 12, 16.

Many of these staunch nova dems were still living in DC and elsewhere because they couldn't find a home yet in the new nova neighborhoods.

Were Fairfax and Loudoun counties that much less developed in 04 than it is now?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Apparently McCain won more raw votes in VA than Bush did in 04. Thats just stunning

[TML]

Apparently McCain won more raw votes in VA than Bush did in 04. Thats just stunning

But that was more than offset by the number of votes Obama added to Kerry's total.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Apparently McCain won more raw votes in VA than Bush did in 04. Thats just stunning

But that was more than offset by the number of votes Obama added to Kerry's total.

Thats why its stunning

[Hydera]

Apparently McCain won more raw votes in VA than Bush did in 04. Thats just stunning

But that was more than offset by the number of votes Obama added to Kerry's total.

Thats why its stunning

In many states in the South the vote totals for McCain was up from Bush in 2004 mainly because a lot of cough cough certain type of voter cough wanted to deny Obama a victory even if Bush was unpopular that wasn't the main factor for them.

[Canis]

Never wore blackface

[Politician]

Most of the increase to Bush's margin came out of rural areas and small cities. As you can see on Dave Leip's swing map, some of these counties moved dramatically.



One of the more extreme cases is Wise County, out of the panhandle, which went from 49-48 Bush to 58-41 Bush. Bedford County, near Roanoke, is more typical, going from a 67-31 Bush victory to a 70-29 Bush victory.

Parts of the Hampton Roads metro also contributed a decent number of votes to the margin, but the percent change was much smaller here than in most other parts of the state, following the trend for Virginia's other larger metros. Richmond and NoVA even swung toward Democrats.

Here's a fun piece of trivia. The four Republicans who have won the most votes in a statewide contest in Virginia are all losers - Mitt Romney, Donald Trump, George Allen, and John McCain:

Mark Warner (2008 Senate) - 2.37M
Tim Kaine (2012 Senate) - 2.01M
Barack Obama (2012) - 1.97M
Hillary Clinton (2016) - 1.98M
Barack Obama (2008) - 1.96M
Tim Kaine (2018 Senate) - 1.91M
Mitt Romney (2012) - 1.82 M
George Allen (2012 Senate) - 1.79M
Donald Trump (2016) - 1.77M
John McCain (2008) - 1.73M
George Bush (2004) - 1.72M
Charles S. Robb (1988 Senate) - 1.47M
John Kerry (2004) - 1.45M
George Bush (2000) - 1.44M

You'll notice that John Kerry is on this list but not Gore. Kerry actually won over 200,000 more votes than Gore did four years earlier, and improved the Democratic popular vote percentage by 1.04% - i.e. only slightly less than Bush's 1.21% improvement.

TLDR: Rural areas swung hard against the Democrats. Even so, favorable swings occurred in large, growing metros - enough that both candidates won more votes than their parties had four years earlier - provided a foretaste of what was to come.

Bush improved in Albemarle? I doubt it considering he lost it in 04 but won it 00

[One Term Floridian]

Because the fool didn't try to expand the map and spent too much time trying to flip FL. Also, he should've picked someone other than John Edwards. Would have been interesting to have then-Governor Mark Warner on the ticket. He was reportedly on Kerry's VP shortlist.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

The suburbs were voting on gay hatred then.

[DPKdebator]

Most of the increase to Bush's margin came out of rural areas and small cities. As you can see on Dave Leip's swing map, some of these counties moved dramatically.



One of the more extreme cases is Wise County, out of the panhandle, which went from 49-48 Bush to 58-41 Bush. Bedford County, near Roanoke, is more typical, going from a 67-31 Bush victory to a 70-29 Bush victory.

Parts of the Hampton Roads metro also contributed a decent number of votes to the margin, but the percent change was much smaller here than in most other parts of the state, following the trend for Virginia's other larger metros. Richmond and NoVA even swung toward Democrats.

Here's a fun piece of trivia. The four Republicans who have won the most votes in a statewide contest in Virginia are all losers - Mitt Romney, Donald Trump, George Allen, and John McCain:

Mark Warner (2008 Senate) - 2.37M
Tim Kaine (2012 Senate) - 2.01M
Barack Obama (2012) - 1.97M
Hillary Clinton (2016) - 1.98M
Barack Obama (2008) - 1.96M
Tim Kaine (2018 Senate) - 1.91M
Mitt Romney (2012) - 1.82 M
George Allen (2012 Senate) - 1.79M
Donald Trump (2016) - 1.77M
John McCain (2008) - 1.73M
George Bush (2004) - 1.72M
Charles S. Robb (1988 Senate) - 1.47M
John Kerry (2004) - 1.45M
George Bush (2000) - 1.44M

You'll notice that John Kerry is on this list but not Gore. Kerry actually won over 200,000 more votes than Gore did four years earlier, and improved the Democratic popular vote percentage by 1.04% - i.e. only slightly less than Bush's 1.21% improvement.

TLDR: Rural areas swung hard against the Democrats. Even so, favorable swings occurred in large, growing metros - enough that both candidates won more votes than their parties had four years earlier - provided a foretaste of what was to come.

Bush improved in Albemarle? I doubt it considering he lost it in 04 but won it 00

That's actually the 1996-2000 swing map, this is the 2000-2004 swing map:

[sg0508]

He probably doesn't win it, but he gave up on the Old Dominion way too early.  That was highly criticized by Mark Warner and after the fact, by John Edwards.  VA was a good example of Kerry not forcing Bush and Rove to play "some defense" in '04, when the GOP forced Kerry to play major defense across the midwest, even if some of the states remained Democratic in the end.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gephardt, or Wes Clark would have made OH; Va more competetive. Edwards turned out to be a dud of a Veep nominee.  As he lost the 2008 presidential primary due to scandal

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Apparently McCain won more raw votes in VA than Bush did in 04. Thats just stunning

But that was more than offset by the number of votes Obama added to Kerry's total.

Wow thank you for that one, Captain Obvious. Never would have been able to logically deduce that one.

[brucejoel99]

It was still such a (supposed) GOP stronghold that he didn't really try there.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

It was still such a (supposed) GOP stronghold that he didn't really try there.

This.

Larry Sabato suggested that Kerry could have carried VA, but "would he?".