1976 without Roe v. Wade
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  1976 without Roe v. Wade
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Author Topic: 1976 without Roe v. Wade  (Read 809 times)
darklordoftech
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« on: February 26, 2019, 08:16:24 AM »

If the Supreme Court refused to hear Roe v. Wade or ruled that the Constitution doesn't say anything on abortion, would there be differences in how some of the states would vote in 1976?
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #1 on: February 27, 2019, 04:52:22 PM »

Probably not much of an impact to alter the overall results of the 1976 election, as (if I recall correctly) Jimmy Carter ran as a pro-life candidate whereas Gerald Ford was ambivalent regarding the issue of abortion rights. Down the line however, if abortion remained a state issue, it is likely that the Democrats would have retained slightly more support among white Catholics and Evangelical Protestants in the South and Midwest. More Democratic support amongst those groups, in turn, might have been enough to alter the results of several close Presidential elections such as 2000, 2004, and maybe 2016.
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shua
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« Reply #2 on: February 27, 2019, 06:03:08 PM »

Ford and Carter were both as non-committal and ambiguous on abortion as they could be in order to try and keep their coalitions together.  You could easily believe whichever candidate you liked more for other reasons was more pro-life/pro-choice than the other, so it's hard to see it making a net difference.
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Sestak
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« Reply #3 on: February 27, 2019, 06:11:00 PM »

^ Basically what's been said above. The much bigger impacts would be downballot I think.
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shua
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« Reply #4 on: March 02, 2019, 12:34:41 AM »

Come to think of it, there is one significant way Roe v Wade probably made a difference:

Without it, the pro-life movement isn't so energized to help Bob Dole get re-elected in his close Senate race in 1974.   Thus he wouldn't be Ford's VP candidate.   Whoever Ford picks instead could have an impact on the result.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #5 on: March 18, 2019, 01:43:33 PM »

Come to think of it, there is one significant way Roe v Wade probably made a difference:

Without it, the pro-life movement isn't so energized to help Bob Dole get re-elected in his close Senate race in 1974.   Thus he wouldn't be Ford's VP candidate.   Whoever Ford picks instead could have an impact on the result.
Interesting. If Bob Dole lost re-election, it is possible that Gerald Ford would have kept Nelson Rockefeller on board as his running mate. A Ford-Rockefeller would have definitely lost Virginia and Oklahoma, but would have had a strong chance at picking up New York and Wisconsin, which would have secured Gerald Ford a narrow victory.
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Solid4096
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« Reply #6 on: March 18, 2019, 02:26:46 PM »

Probably not much of an impact to alter the overall results of the 1976 election, as (if I recall correctly) Jimmy Carter ran as a pro-life candidate whereas Gerald Ford was ambivalent regarding the issue of abortion rights. Down the line however, if abortion remained a state issue, it is likely that the Democrats would have retained slightly more support among white Catholics and Evangelical Protestants in the South and Midwest. More Democratic support amongst those groups, in turn, might have been enough to alter the results of several close Presidential elections such as 2000, 2004, and maybe 2016.

2016 would most definitely flip before 2004 in any sort of swing of results across multiple elections.
Kerry needed a 2.2% swing to win the 2004 tipping point state of Ohio.
Clinton needed a 0.8% swing to win the 2016 tipping point state of Wisconsin.
(both of the above numbers were rounded up to the nearest tenth of a percent in that direction)
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shua
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« Reply #7 on: March 18, 2019, 03:23:24 PM »

Come to think of it, there is one significant way Roe v Wade probably made a difference:

Without it, the pro-life movement isn't so energized to help Bob Dole get re-elected in his close Senate race in 1974.   Thus he wouldn't be Ford's VP candidate.   Whoever Ford picks instead could have an impact on the result.
Interesting. If Bob Dole lost re-election, it is possible that Gerald Ford would have kept Nelson Rockefeller on board as his running mate. A Ford-Rockefeller would have definitely lost Virginia and Oklahoma, but would have had a strong chance at picking up New York and Wisconsin, which would have secured Gerald Ford a narrow victory.

I expect Ford would still try to pick a VP that conservatives would feel okay about.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #8 on: March 23, 2019, 10:13:09 AM »

Come to think of it, there is one significant way Roe v Wade probably made a difference:

Without it, the pro-life movement isn't so energized to help Bob Dole get re-elected in his close Senate race in 1974.   Thus he wouldn't be Ford's VP candidate.   Whoever Ford picks instead could have an impact on the result.
Interesting. If Bob Dole lost re-election, it is possible that Gerald Ford would have kept Nelson Rockefeller on board as his running mate. A Ford-Rockefeller would have definitely lost Virginia and Oklahoma, but would have had a strong chance at picking up New York and Wisconsin, which would have secured Gerald Ford a narrow victory.

I expect Ford would still try to pick a VP that conservatives would feel okay about.
Maybe Gerald Ford would have picked Ronald Reagan as his running mate. A Ford/Reagan ticket would have likely lost Maine, Oregon, Washington, Illinois, and possibly Vermont, but would have likely won Mississippi, Texas, Louisiana, and maybe Ohio if they played their cards right.
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TheElectoralBoobyPrize
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« Reply #9 on: March 23, 2019, 12:21:53 PM »

Come to think of it, there is one significant way Roe v Wade probably made a difference:

Without it, the pro-life movement isn't so energized to help Bob Dole get re-elected in his close Senate race in 1974.   Thus he wouldn't be Ford's VP candidate.   Whoever Ford picks instead could have an impact on the result.
Interesting. If Bob Dole lost re-election, it is possible that Gerald Ford would have kept Nelson Rockefeller on board as his running mate. A Ford-Rockefeller would have definitely lost Virginia and Oklahoma, but would have had a strong chance at picking up New York and Wisconsin, which would have secured Gerald Ford a narrow victory.

I expect Ford would still try to pick a VP that conservatives would feel okay about.

Yep...Dole losing his reelection bid isn't going to change that. It's not like there would suddenly not be any conservatives for Ford to pick...
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