Who else thinks Gary Peters is vulnerable in 2020?

[Hatchet]

With the decline in ticket-splitting, I very much doubt Gary Peters will get reelected if Trump carries the state, especially if John James runs again. Michigan is turning red thanks to the declining Detroit metropolitan area and the overall slow growth of the state. When will Democrats realize that the Midwest is increasingly becoming less competitive?

[Sestak]

If Trump only carries it narrowly, as he did in 2016, then Peters could hold on. Also keep in mind that African American turnout was pretty significantly depressed in 2016. If it gets reasonably better, MI would be the first Trump state to flip back to the Dems.

[pppolitics]

Peters is only "vulnerable" in the sense that literally all the other Democrats (with the obvious except of Jones) are safe.

There's also a 99% chance that Peters would actually campaign, unlike Stabenow who sleepwalked to reelection.

[Roll Roons]

He (and Shaheen) are more vulnerable than any 2020 Democratic Senator not named Doug Jones, but that's not saying much.

Here's something to consider: In the past decade, the only Democratic Senators who lost reelection and weren't from deep red states are Feingold, Udall, Hagan and Nelson. The first three were up in Republican wave years, and Bill Nelson got lazy and faced just about the most formidable opponent that any Senator possibly could - a popular two-term incumbent governor with a massive fortune to burn.

2020 is not likely to be a Republican wave year like 2010 or 2014, and there is nobody in Michigan who is nearly as strong a challenger as Rick Scott.

[Politician]

He's only vulnerable if he sleeps through his campaign and Trump carries the state by 4+ points.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump lost MI, when Gretchen Whittmer was elected Gov

[SnowLabrador]

If John James is the nominee (which I think he will be), Peters will be in serious trouble. This guy comes out of nowhere and comes within 6.5% of beating an entrenched incumbent, I shudder to think of how he could do against a first-termer.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Peters is a strong candidate and Whitmer and the Democratic nominee and all Dem congressmen will help MI be a blue state again

[MT Treasurer]

This idea that Peters is safe is of course ridiculous, but I’m also not entirely convinced that he’s a weaker candidate than Debbie "Levin" Stabenow. While he’s overrated by Democrats, Republicans are going to need a favorable environment to take him down. It could certainly happen if Trump wins MI again (which he almost certainly will if he wins reelection), and he’s clearly the most vulnerable Democrat after Jones (not saying much, though).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2020 can be a blue wave again, and we can see a 300 vote landslide against a Wallstreet Banker, that we saw in 2012, against Romney. Caution to GOP

[Skye]

Depends on how well Trump does in the state and the quality of the candidate the GOP nominates.

[Orser67]

I feel pretty confident that, as a non-controversial incumbent, he's not going to run behind the Democratic presidential candidate.

But at the same time, I don't see any reason why it should be assumed that Peters would run more than a couple points ahead of the national ticket.

[Kevin]

Peters while dull and uncontroversial is relatively unknown by MI voters for an incumbent. I read a poll somewhere recently (can't remember) that stated something like 35% of Michigan voters did not know who he was.

Likewise, his winning margin was only significant in 2014 because he faced a terrible opponent.

That said the GOP tends to have bad luck with Michigan Senate races and the state is somewhat elastic imo. So even if Trump wins Michigan again he could pull through.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

With the decline in ticket-splitting, I very much doubt Gary Peters will get reelected if Trump carries the state,

This starting premise is flawed. Whitmer won MI by nine points and Stabenow won by six. Tony Evers won by one point while Tammy Baldwin won by 11. Amy Klobuchar won by 24 points while Tim Walz and Tina Smith won by 10/11. Sherrod Brown won OH and Richard Cordray lost it. Ticket splitting still happens all the time; not in the same numbers as they did in the 1970s, meaning usually not enough to affect margins in noncompetitive races but it absolutely could provide a different result in a competitive races.

Michigan is turning red thanks to the declining Detroit metropolitan area and the overall slow growth of the state.

It isn't turning red, it's turning purple. The decline in metro Detroit is being partially offset by growth of other smaller metro areas like Grand Rapids and Ann Arbor which are becoming bluer each year. Michigan flipped in 2016 (and 2010) because voters in metro Detroit stayed home/switched sides, not because they moved out of state.

When will Democrats realize that the Midwest is increasingly becoming less competitive?

lmao this reads like a troll post. It's becoming MORE competitive, not less. And that's even after considering that Democrats annihilated in this region in 2018.

Anyways this will be one of the more competitive incumbent-D races but Peters still has a >90% chance of winning.

[ElectionsGuy]

Yes. He's got the upper hand but definitely not unbeatable in a Trump victory comparable to Obama's victory in 2012.

[S019]

I think it is a Tossup that comes down to national environment. The result will be within a point of the presidential race, the Midwest is quickly becoming polarized (with the exception of Gov races, which are not polarized)

[IceSpear]

I feel pretty confident that, as a non-controversial incumbent, he's not going to run behind the Democratic presidential candidate.

But at the same time, I don't see any reason why it should be assumed that Peters would run more than a couple points ahead of the national ticket.

This, pretty much. It's hard to see any D nominee/John James voters. But I don't see there being many Trump/Peters voters either. I think he could survive a razor thin Trump win, but probably not much more than that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Even if Hillary was Prez, Shaheen, Warner and Peters werent losing

[Xing]

He's definitely vulnerable, but it's fair to say that he's favored. I think he'd survive if Trump won Michigan by 2% or less (and of course, he'll survive if Trump loses Michigan.)

[Progressive Pessimist]

As long as Peters takes the race seriously at the most minimum possible level, he should be fine.

[Tekken_Guy]

LOL he is not vulnerable. Jones will be the only Democratic senator to lose reelection in 2020.

[MT Treasurer]

LOL he is not vulnerable. Jones will be the only Democratic senator to lose reelection in 2020.

Yeah, he’s running for reelection in an Obama +9 state and won his last race in a landslide (Sens. Ayotte and Nelson can attest to the importance of that). He won’t even be remotely vulnerable if Trump wins reelection or anything.

[KaiserDave]

Only loses if Trump carries Michigan by more than 2.

But Trump won't carry Michigan.

[here2view]

He's absolutely vulnerable but I don't see him losing, as I don't think Trump carries Michigan in 2020. Peters will likely only lose if Trump wins the state.

[nealkp1212]

Gary Peters is vulnerable if Justin Amash is the Republican nominee.