California Special Election Analysis

[phk]

Will anybody be doing a county analysis on Props 74-77?

[The Duke]

One point is that Imperial went heavily yes on 73, and no on 75/76.  Hispanics matter here big time, and the big winners will be those who know how to win them over.

This state won't be majority pro-choice for long.

[phk]

One point is that Imperial went heavily yes on 73, and no on 75/76.  Hispanics matter here big time, and the big winners will be those who know how to win them over.

This state won't be majority pro-choice for long.

Well, to be honest with you Ford; I thought 73 would pass narrowly. \

The reason why I suppose it failed was because many people thought it was 'Parental Consent' instead of 'Parental Notification', as I know many 'Yes' voters here in Fresno who would have switched to 'No' if it was Consent. Yes, I'm talking about Hispanic youngsters.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Sparely populated rural mormom county Alpine (40% mormon) went 63% against parental notification.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

One point is that Imperial went heavily yes on 73, and no on 75/76.  Hispanics matter here big time, and the big winners will be those who know how to win them over.

This state won't be majority pro-choice for long.

Dream on.

[Sam Spade]

I also said 73 would pass because of the stronger Hispanic support for that initiative.  I was right about how they voted.

What killed 73 was the weak support from rural and more conservative areas of California, which I didn't expect.  What caused that, I have no idea.

I have not even started to look at an in-depth county analysis of 74-77, though I would point out the Michael Barone article that I posted in US General Discussion, which is sort of a beginning at that.

[phk]

What killed 73 was the weak support from rural and more conservative areas of California, which I didn't expect.  What caused that, I have no idea.

More of the White rural areas didn't have the support for it, like Lassen and Modoc.

[The Duke]

Sam,

Support was weak in the rural areas largely because support for having the election was weak.  The Governor was not able to cinvince people the election was important, and so people decided they didn't want to have one in the first place and voted no on every initiative, liberal or conservative, as a sort of protest.  That's my take.

jfern,

We will be a majority hispanic state in my lifetime, and it will radically alter the voting patterns of the state unti it looks more like New Mexico or West Virginia that it does like Connecticut or Washington.

[Sam Spade]

Sam,

Support was weak in the rural areas largely because support for having the election was weak.  The Governor was not able to cinvince people the election was important, and so people decided they didn't want to have one in the first place and voted no on every initiative, liberal or conservative, as a sort of protest.  That's my take.

That's a fair enough argument.  I was really just curious.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Perhaps.  It depends on how the Hispanics in California turn out to be once they've been in the country 2nd and 3rd generation, which is actually hard to predict in different areas of the world.

FYI, New Mexico would be much more like Texas if the ski resort areas and Santa Fe didn't exist (Austin is made unimportant by the size of Texas) as both states' Hispanic population is very similar.

[they don't love you like i love you]

My three word analysis: Arnold is toast.

I hope Terminator 4 is good.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Sam,

Support was weak in the rural areas largely because support for having the election was weak.  The Governor was not able to cinvince people the election was important, and so people decided they didn't want to have one in the first place and voted no on every initiative, liberal or conservative, as a sort of protest.  That's my take.

That's a fair enough argument.  I was really just curious.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Perhaps.  It depends on how the Hispanics in California turn out to be once they've been in the country 2nd and 3rd generation, which is actually hard to predict in different areas of the world.

FYI, New Mexico would be much more like Texas if the ski resort areas and Santa Fe didn't exist (Austin is made unimportant by the size of Texas) as both states' Hispanic population is very similar.

Actually California has already beaten Texas.

From the 2000 census:

California is 32.4% Hispanic
New Mexico is 44.&% Hispanic
Texas 32.0% Hispanic

For the 2004 election:
In California, Hispanics were 21% of voters, and voted Kerry 63-32
In New Mexico, Hispanics were 32% of voters, and voted Kerry 56-44
In Texas, Hispanics were 20% of voters, and voted Kerry 50-49

The voting dynamics of Hispanics are clearly more complicated than was  implied.

[Ebowed]

Sparely populated rural mormom county Alpine (40% mormon) went 63% against parental notification.

Low Mormon turn-out, maybe?

[The Duke]

Sam,

Support was weak in the rural areas largely because support for having the election was weak.  The Governor was not able to cinvince people the election was important, and so people decided they didn't want to have one in the first place and voted no on every initiative, liberal or conservative, as a sort of protest.  That's my take.

That's a fair enough argument.  I was really just curious.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Perhaps.  It depends on how the Hispanics in California turn out to be once they've been in the country 2nd and 3rd generation, which is actually hard to predict in different areas of the world.

FYI, New Mexico would be much more like Texas if the ski resort areas and Santa Fe didn't exist (Austin is made unimportant by the size of Texas) as both states' Hispanic population is very similar.

Actually California has already beaten Texas.

From the 2000 census:

California is 32.4% Hispanic
New Mexico is 44.&% Hispanic
Texas 32.0% Hispanic

For the 2004 election:
In California, Hispanics were 21% of voters, and voted Kerry 63-32
In New Mexico, Hispanics were 32% of voters, and voted Kerry 56-44
In Texas, Hispanics were 20% of voters, and voted Kerry 50-49

The voting dynamics of Hispanics are clearly more complicated than was  implied.

Its not that their voting is more complicated.  A lot of it is that in Texas, while hispanics are more Democratic than the state at large, the Texas GOP is more immigrant friendly (No prop 187).  Also, the white voters in Texas are very conservative, but white voters in San Fran?  Los Angeles?  No, these are either liberals or suburbanites, making the state's white voters similar to, say, Connecticut's.  With their proportion of the state's population declining, and the Hispanics proportion growing, the state will become more populist as it represents more latino values.

We're a dynamic state.  Twenty years ago, we were all about low taxes.  Even Jerry Brown had to endorse Prop 13.  We elected people like Ronald Reagan and George Deukmejian.  Fiscally conservative and socially liberal is our reputation today (I'd exempt crime, which is one social issue where we're still fairly conervative).  We elect people like Pete Wilson and Arnld Schwarzenegger.  Twenty years from now, we will not have the same politics we do today, and if you think we will, you have no conception of our state's political history.

[Sam Spade]

Its not that their voting is more complicated.  A lot of it is that in Texas, while hispanics are more Democratic than the state at large, the Texas GOP is more immigrant friendly (No prop 187).

I cannot emphasize how important this little factoid is and how big it has played in the divergence of voting trends in Texas and California in the last 10-20 years.

[phk]

California and Texas Hispanics are different,

[phk]

Sparely populated rural mormom county Alpine (40% mormon) went 63% against parental notification.

Low Mormon turn-out, maybe?

Ebowed, all you need is a couple thousand San Franciscans/Sacramentans buying log cabins to cause that.

[The Duke]

Its not that their voting is more complicated.  A lot of it is that in Texas, while hispanics are more Democratic than the state at large, the Texas GOP is more immigrant friendly (No prop 187).

I cannot emphasize how important this little factoid is and how big it has played in the divergence of voting trends in Texas and California in the last 10-20 years.

187 was a horrible thing to do, and its killed us big time.  This would be a swing state today if not for 187.  The worst part is that it would have denied public education to children who were brought here by their parents, which punishes chidlren for something they had no control over and would have turned them into a permanent underclass by virtue of their lack of education.

Friggin' Pete Wilson.

California and Texas Hispanics are different,

It is true that Texas tends to take people from Sonora and Chihuaha, places that voted for Vincente Fox and lean economically more to the right whereas California takes a lot of people from Oaxaca and non-Mexicans from Guatamala and Honduras.  But this is very minor compared to the effect of Prop 187.