Why is Montana more Democratic?
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  Why is Montana more Democratic?
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Author Topic: Why is Montana more Democratic?  (Read 1548 times)
walleye26
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« on: February 22, 2019, 06:14:59 PM »

I know Montana is a red state, but it just Re-elected Tester, has a Democratic Governor, has a history of electing Democratic Senators, and even voted for Clinton in 92. Obama almost won it in ‘08.
Compared to its neighbors like Wyoming, Idaho, and the Dakotas, Montana is much more Democratic leaning.
Why is this?
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #1 on: February 22, 2019, 06:17:38 PM »

White working class #Populists Purple heart
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #2 on: February 22, 2019, 06:18:18 PM »

The rural areas actually haven't drifted to the last substantially, and it is becoming sort of like a mini-Colorado (a few mid-sized cities with reliable democratic votes).
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TML
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« Reply #3 on: February 22, 2019, 06:31:44 PM »

Democrats are strongest in western MT, while Republicans are strongest in eastern MT. The former region has been increasing in population (with many people moving in from the West Coast), while the latter region has been decreasing in population.
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Sestak
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« Reply #4 on: February 22, 2019, 06:31:47 PM »

The rural areas actually haven't drifted to the last substantially, and it is becoming sort of like a mini-Colorado (a few mid-sized cities with reliable democratic votes).


Also Montana isn’t actually that rural - yes, a lot of the state is sparsely-populated rural areas - but they’re so sparsely populated that the population is actually quite urban.
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dotard
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« Reply #5 on: February 22, 2019, 06:52:23 PM »

MT also has a big organized labor/ union legacy. It’s actually the only state that’s not employment at will.
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: February 22, 2019, 07:44:46 PM »

Mnt will vote for Daines and Fox in 2020. But, Tester works the aisle and so does Bullock
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Wazza
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« Reply #7 on: February 24, 2019, 04:36:20 AM »

It has nothing to do with rurality as Wyoming (64.8%) and Idaho (70.6%) both have larger urban populations than Montana (55.9%). The reason would be somewhat similar to WV that being the history of unions/labor movements. Notably, Montana was quite strongly supportive of the Democrats during the New Deal era/5th party system.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urbanization_in_the_United_States
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #8 on: February 24, 2019, 02:16:23 PM »

It has nothing to do with rurality as Wyoming (64.8%) and Idaho (70.6%) both have larger urban populations than Montana (55.9%). The reason would be somewhat similar to WV that being the history of unions/labor movements. Notably, Montana was quite strongly supportive of the Democrats during the New Deal era/5th party system.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urbanization_in_the_United_States

And yet they didn't vote for JFK, Humphrey, or Carter.
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Wazza
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« Reply #9 on: February 25, 2019, 12:37:22 AM »

It has nothing to do with rurality as Wyoming (64.8%) and Idaho (70.6%) both have larger urban populations than Montana (55.9%). The reason would be somewhat similar to WV that being the history of unions/labor movements. Notably, Montana was quite strongly supportive of the Democrats during the New Deal era/5th party system.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urbanization_in_the_United_States

And yet they didn't vote for JFK, Humphrey, or Carter.

Indeed, with the unraveling of the New Deal coalition like the rest of the mountain region it began trending away from the Democratic party. Though in all of those races it went Republican by a considerably lesser margin compared to Idaho and Wyoming. In fact, there has never been a presidential election where MT has voted more R than ID or WY.
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I Can Now Die Happy
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« Reply #10 on: February 25, 2019, 12:54:34 AM »

Unlike the South it hasn't shed its inclination to electing a certain type of Democrat to statewide and local offices, which of course is due to the fact that it doesn't share the particular political history that the South has (i.e. Dixiecrats --> Reagan Revolution --> 1994 midterms --> George W. Bush), despite currently being about as Republican friendly at the Presidential level. The people in the Mountain States decide their support for reasons that are not entirely identical to why the former Confederacy transferred their loyalty to the Party of Lincoln.

Note that their Democratic congressman survived the 1994 bloodbath while so many Southern counterparts didn't.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections#Montana
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #11 on: February 25, 2019, 01:39:17 PM »

Generally speaking it is due to the lack of a really strong religious electorate. For example the share of voters in Montana who are against abortion in most circumstances is around 35%, but it’s above 55% in North Dakota
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
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« Reply #12 on: February 25, 2019, 03:42:27 PM »

More unionization + less Evangelicals = more Democratic.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #13 on: February 25, 2019, 06:28:14 PM »

It has nothing to do with rurality as Wyoming (64.8%) and Idaho (70.6%) both have larger urban populations than Montana (55.9%). The reason would be somewhat similar to WV that being the history of unions/labor movements. Notably, Montana was quite strongly supportive of the Democrats during the New Deal era/5th party system.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urbanization_in_the_United_States

And yet they didn't vote for JFK, Humphrey, or Carter.

Indeed, with the unraveling of the New Deal coalition like the rest of the mountain region it began trending away from the Democratic party. Though in all of those races it went Republican by a considerably lesser margin compared to Idaho and Wyoming. In fact, there has never been a presidential election where MT has voted more R than ID or WY.

1892.
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Wazza
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« Reply #14 on: February 26, 2019, 08:53:09 AM »

It has nothing to do with rurality as Wyoming (64.8%) and Idaho (70.6%) both have larger urban populations than Montana (55.9%). The reason would be somewhat similar to WV that being the history of unions/labor movements. Notably, Montana was quite strongly supportive of the Democrats during the New Deal era/5th party system.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urbanization_in_the_United_States

And yet they didn't vote for JFK, Humphrey, or Carter.

Indeed, with the unraveling of the New Deal coalition like the rest of the mountain region it began trending away from the Democratic party. Though in all of those races it went Republican by a considerably lesser margin compared to Idaho and Wyoming. In fact, there has never been a presidential election where MT has voted more R than ID or WY.

1892.

1892 had the populists running which muddles with the voter margins, but ID (44.31%) and WY (50.52%) still had higher Republican support than MT (42.44%).
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TDAS04
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« Reply #15 on: February 26, 2019, 09:15:19 AM »

It has nothing to do with rurality as Wyoming (64.8%) and Idaho (70.6%) both have larger urban populations than Montana (55.9%). The reason would be somewhat similar to WV that being the history of unions/labor movements. Notably, Montana was quite strongly supportive of the Democrats during the New Deal era/5th party system.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urbanization_in_the_United_States

And yet they didn't vote for JFK, Humphrey, or Carter.

Indeed, with the unraveling of the New Deal coalition like the rest of the mountain region it began trending away from the Democratic party. Though in all of those races it went Republican by a considerably lesser margin compared to Idaho and Wyoming. In fact, there has never been a presidential election where MT has voted more R than ID or WY.

1892.

1892 had the populists running which muddles with the voter margins, but ID (44.31%) and WY (50.52%) still had higher Republican support than MT (42.44%).

True, and Cleveland wasn’t even on the ballot in Idaho or Wyoming, but that doesn’t change the fact that Harrison carried Montana but not Idaho.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #16 on: February 26, 2019, 10:37:35 AM »

Lots of liberal enclaves in Western MT; there's not really anywhere comparable in ID or WY.
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100% pro-life no matter what
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« Reply #17 on: February 26, 2019, 01:36:46 PM »

Isn't Montana also surprisingly one of the least religious states in America?
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
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« Reply #18 on: February 26, 2019, 01:54:16 PM »

Isn't Montana also surprisingly one of the least religious states in America?
Not really. Montana is in the middle of the pack when it comes to how religious each state is.

Compared to the South though, Montana is far less religious.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #19 on: February 26, 2019, 03:08:53 PM »

Wyoming isn't very especially religious either, but it's arguably the most Republican state in the country. 

Lots of liberal enclaves in Western MT; there's not really anywhere comparable in ID or WY.

This is probably the best answer to the OP's question.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #20 on: February 26, 2019, 03:22:06 PM »

Its bigger cities are much more Democratic than the bigger cities in Idaho, Wyoming, and so on. Although I can't tell you why that is. If Missoula, Great Falls, and Bozeman voted like Cheyenne, Idaho Falls, or even Pacatello, Montana would be around 60% Republican instead of 55% or something. The rural areas in these states are indeed very isolated and not well populated, making the mid-size and small cities influential to the overall vote.
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