Would Obama have won Arizona without Mccain
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  Would Obama have won Arizona without Mccain
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Author Topic: Would Obama have won Arizona without Mccain  (Read 3744 times)
Da2017
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« on: February 21, 2019, 01:40:28 PM »
« edited: February 21, 2019, 01:44:28 PM by Da2017 »

Arizona was starting to trend more democratic. Bill Clinton won once in 96. I could at the very least see him within striking distance of winning, assuming he wins by the same margin nationally.
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Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
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« Reply #1 on: February 21, 2019, 02:19:44 PM »

It would have been much closer, I'm not sure if he would have outright won it though.

Maybe it could be like Indiana, where the Republican ignores it because it's not expected to be competitive, but Obama senses an opportunity and pours some resources into it and narrowly wins.
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Joe McCarthy Was Right
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« Reply #2 on: March 14, 2019, 12:37:37 AM »

Actually plausible. Democrats won the house popular vote there in 2008. Every southwestern state except Arizona trended Democratic in that election.
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President Sestak
jk2020
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« Reply #3 on: March 14, 2019, 12:43:26 AM »

I don't see it quite Indiana-ing assuming the NPV is the same. Of course if the wave is bigger it's a different story.
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #4 on: April 07, 2019, 05:30:34 PM »

No, but I think he could've hit the same range Hillary landed in 2016.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #5 on: June 15, 2019, 06:48:29 AM »

No but I think it would've been extremely close. Republicans probably would've won AZ by 1% or so.
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Esteemed Jimmy7812
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« Reply #6 on: July 06, 2019, 02:05:39 PM »

No, but I think he could've hit the same range Hillary landed in 2016.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #7 on: July 06, 2019, 02:09:01 PM »

Possibly.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #8 on: July 30, 2019, 03:40:39 AM »

Yeah, I can't imagine it going full-on Indiana, but I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if it was as close as it was in 2016.
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gracile
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« Reply #9 on: July 31, 2019, 11:27:03 AM »

It would have been closer, but I don't think Obama would have quite gotten in Hillary's '16 range. I'd say he loses it by about 5%.
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mollybecky
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« Reply #10 on: August 08, 2019, 07:09:51 AM »

I think he would have brought it to 2016 levels--but it was easier for Obama to target Indiana.  And in fact, Alaska was in play for a little while, until Palin was selected.
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sg0508
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« Reply #11 on: August 08, 2019, 06:53:18 PM »

Maybe, but it would have depended on the Republican candidate. Generically, I think the GOP still wins it, but it would have been tight. 

Romney gained on average, two points for most states in '12.  In AZ, it was the same margin as '08.  So, without McCain, maybe 51-48 GOP?
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Redban
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« Reply #12 on: March 09, 2020, 08:50:34 AM »

Doubt it. It would have been around the same margin as Georgia -- 47% - 51% or so.
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chibul
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« Reply #13 on: March 25, 2020, 07:02:29 PM »

Arizona was pretty red back in 2008. I actually think Mitt Romney was a better candidate for Arizona than John McCain. Romney slightly outperformed McCain in 12 and I credit that to Mitt Romney being mormon and Arizona having a huge Mormon population especially in Mesa, AZ.
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Our Lady of the Trinity
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« Reply #14 on: July 02, 2020, 02:07:58 PM »

Well every Republican candidate not named McCain would likely have been utterly destroyed by Obama in 2008, so it's possible Obama would have carried AZ.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #15 on: July 02, 2020, 02:54:51 PM »

It would have been a little closer, but I don't think Obama would have won the state. I think Bill Clinton wouldn't have won Arizona in 1996 without Perot either, as he just got 46% of the vote.
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tara gilesbie
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« Reply #16 on: July 18, 2020, 12:55:20 AM »

Almost certainly. If you look at the exit polls, Obama did hit 40% with whites but did horrible with Hispanics - just 56%.  I have no doubt that Hispanic support for Obama would have been more in line with the national average against any other Republican.
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Chips
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« Reply #17 on: January 29, 2021, 10:51:29 PM »

4% win for the GOP.
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EEllis02
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« Reply #18 on: April 30, 2021, 05:01:21 PM »

More than likely no, but it depends on the candidate. Romney more than likely could've won it by a similar margin, but the same probably couldn't have been said for Mike Huckabee.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #19 on: April 30, 2021, 07:03:35 PM »

Of course not.
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holtridge
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« Reply #20 on: June 10, 2021, 11:29:39 AM »

Obama came in out of nowhere and he came in very fast. Like a thief in the night.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #21 on: June 10, 2021, 09:05:24 PM »

I’m pretty sure Obama could have carried Arizona, Montana, and—assuming no Palin—Alaska against Huckabee.
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