Why AR, WV, TN, etc. swung Republican
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 04:54:05 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2008 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  Why AR, WV, TN, etc. swung Republican
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2]
Author Topic: Why AR, WV, TN, etc. swung Republican  (Read 19844 times)
NHI
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,140


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: May 28, 2011, 06:28:04 PM »

I see WV, TN, AR swinging back to the Democrats down the road.
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,249
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: May 31, 2011, 04:25:42 PM »

I imagine McCain was more appealing than Bush to the Scotch-Irish populist vote.

Then why were so many of these Scotch-Irish populists still willing to vote for John Forbes Kerry in 04, but not willing to vote for Obama even while the rest of the country moved several points Democratic?

purple hearts > blue blood.

If you recall from the 04 campaign, many conservative voters--even registered Democrats--considered Forbes a rich playboy and doubted his claims of military heroism.

How does Obama come across as a "blue blood"? Huh I understand the "eastern liberal elite" argument, but that was every bit as applicable (and applied by Republicans) to Kerry.
Logged
Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook
The Obamanation
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,853
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: May 31, 2011, 05:40:09 PM »

Because Obama is black.


/thread.
Logged
phk
phknrocket1k
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,906


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: -1.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: May 31, 2011, 05:58:51 PM »


Culture too.

If he had a more "American" sounding name, I'm sure that's worth more votes.
Logged
MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,380


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: May 31, 2011, 06:08:08 PM »

West Virginia remains mostly Democratic, except of presidential elections. Perhaps a Democratic candidate with some appeal to Appalachia would carry it easily.
Logged
phk
phknrocket1k
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,906


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: -1.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: May 31, 2011, 06:21:11 PM »

West Virginia remains mostly Democratic, except of presidential elections. Perhaps a Democratic candidate with some appeal to Appalachia would carry it easily.

Well the ultimate test would be an election featuring Harold Ford.
Logged
🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
shua
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,665
Nepal


Political Matrix
E: 1.29, S: -0.70

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: May 31, 2011, 06:22:32 PM »

I imagine McCain was more appealing than Bush to the Scotch-Irish populist vote.

Then why were so many of these Scotch-Irish populists still willing to vote for John Forbes Kerry in 04, but not willing to vote for Obama even while the rest of the country moved several points Democratic?

purple hearts > blue blood.

If you recall from the 04 campaign, many conservative voters--even registered Democrats--considered Forbes a rich playboy and doubted his claims of military heroism.

How does Obama come across as a "blue blood"? Huh I understand the "eastern liberal elite" argument, but that was every bit as applicable (and applied by Republicans) to Kerry.

'blue blood' was really meant for Bush. there was a cultural distaste for Kerry's 'eastern liberal elite' too but it was in part mitigated by his military service for many traditionally Democrat voters. really though I'm making more of a distinction between McCain and Bush for people who had been voting Democratic for a long time but admired McCain's military service and saw his style as Jacksonian / conservative Democrat.  I don't know that it was a huge factor, but I think there's something to it.
It's interesting to note that on a statewide level, of those states with a Republican swing, only AR had a larger swing in 2008 then in 2004.
Logged
tpfkaw
wormyguy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,118
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.58, S: 1.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: May 31, 2011, 06:25:22 PM »

West Virginia remains mostly Democratic, except of presidential elections. Perhaps a Democratic candidate with some appeal to Appalachia would carry it easily.

Well the ultimate test would be an election featuring Harold Ford.

If Harold Ford does any more carpetbagging a certain rug shop I know won't be forced to go out of business every two months.
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: June 01, 2011, 03:02:41 PM »

West Virginia remains mostly Democratic, except of presidential elections. Perhaps a Democratic candidate with some appeal to Appalachia would carry it easily.

Well the ultimate test would be an election featuring Harold Ford.




The ultimate test would be an election featuring a man with a strange muslim-sounding name and tmth's face.
Logged
OneJ
OneJ_
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,834
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: May 29, 2017, 02:50:03 PM »

Six years later and it's brought up from the dead? Surprise

But seriously after the results from 2012 and 2016 it does seem that AR and TN were really just waiting on a long term R trend. I mean both states have sizable Black populations, but there looks like a lot of poor White Democrats became increasingly dissatisfied and it prevented a swing towards Obama that could've happened in 2008 or 2012 (to a much lesser extent however) and it accelerated in 2016.

West Virginia is the most clear.

Ironically, even Arkansas swung against Hillary. Tongue
Logged
Del Tachi
Republican95
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,709
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: 1.46

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: May 29, 2017, 03:47:12 PM »

Six years later and it's brought up from the dead? Surprise

But seriously after the results from 2012 and 2016 it does seem that AR and TN were really just waiting on a long term R trend. I mean both states have sizable Black populations, but there looks like a lot of poor White Democrats became increasingly dissatisfied and it prevented a swing towards Obama that could've happened in 2008 or 2012 (to a much lesser extent however) and it accelerated in 2016.

West Virginia is the most clear.

Ironically, even Arkansas swung against Hillary. Tongue


The current political system will climax when AR, TN, KY, WV, etc. have a similar percentage of Whites voting GOP as MS, AL, LA, etc.
Logged
PoliticalShelter
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 407
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: May 29, 2017, 04:44:44 PM »

Six years later and it's brought up from the dead? Surprise

But seriously after the results from 2012 and 2016 it does seem that AR and TN were really just waiting on a long term R trend. I mean both states have sizable Black populations, but there looks like a lot of poor White Democrats became increasingly dissatisfied and it prevented a swing towards Obama that could've happened in 2008 or 2012 (to a much lesser extent however) and it accelerated in 2016.

West Virginia is the most clear.

Ironically, even Arkansas swung against Hillary. Tongue


The current political system will climax when AR, TN, KY, WV, etc. have a similar percentage of Whites voting GOP as MS, AL, LA, etc.

#analysis
Logged
Anzeigenhauptmeister
Hades
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,373
Israel


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: October 16, 2017, 06:48:41 PM »

Eight years ago, I would have said, it was because of Obama being black.
Now I know it was because of Obama being from Chicago.
I guess Clinton was still perceived back then as a Southerner from a rural state; that's why she was liked in Appalachia or at least considered the lesser evil.
Logged
Dr. MB
MB
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,813
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: October 16, 2017, 07:18:15 PM »

Six years later and it's brought up from the dead? Surprise

But seriously after the results from 2012 and 2016 it does seem that AR and TN were really just waiting on a long term R trend. I mean both states have sizable Black populations, but there looks like a lot of poor White Democrats became increasingly dissatisfied and it prevented a swing towards Obama that could've happened in 2008 or 2012 (to a much lesser extent however) and it accelerated in 2016.

West Virginia is the most clear.

Ironically, even Arkansas swung against Hillary. Tongue


The current political system will climax when AR, TN, KY, WV, etc. have a similar percentage of Whites voting GOP as MS, AL, LA, etc.
If that happened it would be back to the Solid South (80–90% for Republicans) just flipped this time.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,417
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: October 18, 2017, 04:20:15 AM »

Six years later and it's brought up from the dead? Surprise

But seriously after the results from 2012 and 2016 it does seem that AR and TN were really just waiting on a long term R trend. I mean both states have sizable Black populations, but there looks like a lot of poor White Democrats became increasingly dissatisfied and it prevented a swing towards Obama that could've happened in 2008 or 2012 (to a much lesser extent however) and it accelerated in 2016.

West Virginia is the most clear.

Ironically, even Arkansas swung against Hillary. Tongue


Very good question, and your necro-post actually sheds light and , while also exposing the extremely weak posts on Atlas, as well as the Main Stream medias interpretations of both the '08 Dem Primary, as well as the '08 GE.

Reality is that this is a part of the country where the tradition of Military Service runs deep in the family blood...

As others have noted, it's also a place where Whites vote much more Democratic than in the rest of the former states of the White Supremacist South.

Considering how the older racist folks that grew up in an era where Jim Crow was the law of the land are now dropping off like flies.... I'm still not convinced that the whole argument about "Racist White voters that so many on Atlas were flogging back at the time of the OP makes any sense...

My thought is rather that Obama running as an "Anti War" Democratic didn't play well in these States, considering that they had been shifting heavily Republican since '00, and especially after 9-11.

After all Tennessee almost elected their first Black Senator since Reconstruction not that many years ago, WV obviously still has a Democratic Senator, and after all split from the State of Virginia because of the whole slavery/succession gig during the Civil War....

What do all of these States have in common?

A significant population of aging military vets/families, that have been gradually been shifting "Right" on Social Policy, at the same time that the Democrats have been shifting "Right" on Economic Policy....





Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: January 05, 2021, 02:06:21 AM »

I see WV, TN, AR swinging back to the Democrats down the road.

This comment certainly has aged poorly, though no one could have foreseen Trump's candidacies at the time it was made.
Logged
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: January 29, 2021, 10:50:59 PM »

Partly because of racism, Partly because of trends.
Logged
GregTheGreat657
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,920
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.77, S: -1.04

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: June 23, 2021, 09:08:20 AM »

In AR and TN it was inevitable that they would turn blue, though KY, and especially WV were salvagable if the Democrats ran under the right platform (i.e. socially moderate, if not conservative, fiscally left, pro-union and pro-coal).
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,842
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: July 21, 2021, 07:16:29 PM »

In AR and TN it was inevitable that they would turn blue, though KY, and especially WV were salvagable if the Democrats ran under the right platform (i.e. socially moderate, if not conservative, fiscally left, pro-union and pro-coal).

Coal is a dying industry. Solar power will generate more power than coal ever did in these states from here on. These states are poor in formal education, which serves demagogues of any kind. As Democrats become more conservative on legal precedent, diplomatic protocol, due process, and even law and order they spiral away from these states.

Obama seems to be the wave of the future in style and substance for Democrats, and that bodes badly for Democrats in the Mountain and Deep South.
Logged
MATTROSE94
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,803
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.29, S: -6.43

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: July 28, 2021, 10:11:55 PM »

I see WV, TN, AR swinging back to the Democrats down the road.

This comment certainly has aged poorly, though no one could have foreseen Trump's candidacies at the time it was made.
I agree, though it is possible that some of the more suburban and highly educated counties in West Virginia, Arkansas, and Tennessee may trend Democratic to a point in the later 2020s assuming that Donald Trump doesn’t get back into power and turn the US into a true fascist country.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.243 seconds with 13 queries.