Red state Democrats and blue state Republicans: States that can elect either way (user search)
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  Red state Democrats and blue state Republicans: States that can elect either way (search mode)
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Author Topic: Red state Democrats and blue state Republicans: States that can elect either way  (Read 1239 times)
lfromnj
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« on: February 20, 2019, 11:34:00 PM »

Illinois, more than most other blue states, is probably the most open to electing Republicans statewide.

This is somewhat related. I have discussed with a few posters before about a dynamic I could see happening in the future. Atlanta vs Chicago suburbs.

DuPage and Gwinnett counties could well give similar margins for Democratic presidential candidates in 10 years. But an interesting divergence between the two counties could occur for local and state politics.

Let's say a presidential election occurs and Gwinnett and DuPage both give the Democratic presidential candidate a 57 to 39 victory but two years later we would see Democrats sweep all offices in Gwinnett County and the Republican gubernatorial candidate would be dead on arrival in Gwinnett. However, up north in DuPage County the GOP and Democrats could well split local offices and the Republican gubernatorial candidate would have a fighting chance in DuPage.

This is due to more of Cook County vs rest of state dynamic and the fact that DuPage's electorate will be far far whiter compared to Gwinnett County.

Lake County is the only Chicago collar county in which I would see the GOP as locked out in 10 years but even there the Republican candidate could put up a fight if the GOP manages to win Illinois statewide.

Everything I just said about Gwinnettt vs DuPage could probably be stated for Georgia vs Illinois in the future. Both states giving similar margins to Democratic presidential candidates but for state politics it would be more difficult for a Republican to win Georgia. Illinois would have a solid GOP downstate and fairly elastic suburbs while Georgia would no longer have suburbs that could vote GOP under certain circumstances and would have to depend very heavily on outstate Georgia.

Heh, in 2022 we could see Pritzker winning re-election carrying only Cook, Lake and maybe St Clair. In 10 to 12 years a competitive gubernatorial contest there could involve the Democrat carrying only Cook and Lake.

uh Champagn county would also be won by the D.

This would obviously counteracted by insane rural margins with 1 or two counties going 90+ for the GOP.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1 on: February 22, 2019, 12:55:40 PM »

What makes zero sense is that blue state Republicans(Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan) are liberal and red state Democrats(Steve Bullock and John Bell Edwards) are also liberal. When it comes to blue state Republicans and red state Democrats, it is not a two way street.


JBE and Hogan are both moderates
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lfromnj
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« Reply #2 on: February 22, 2019, 01:41:02 PM »

What makes zero sense is that blue state Republicans(Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan) are liberal and red state Democrats(Steve Bullock and John Bell Edwards) are also liberal. When it comes to blue state Republicans and red state Democrats, it is not a two way street.

Cory Gardner is a pretty conservative Republican from a blue state. Also JBE is fairly conservative, as is Joe Manchin.

I mean Gardner was elected when Colorado was still swing(It was the tipping point state in 08 and 12)
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