This is basically correct.
Kilgore actively insulted two major groups of his base while Kaine courted one of them. Kilgore refused to take the Taxpayer protection pledge. I guess he thought they had nowhere to go. The taxpayer's view of the election is summed up in
this NTU blog post Then Kilgore called
VCDL not credible on 2nd amendment issues while Kaine tried to make up for his past by url=http://www.vcdl.org/surveys/SurveyResults_2005_Statewide.html]answering their questions[/url]. This was the final blow to Kilgore. With two most active parts of his base in open revolt, he didn't have a chance. His poll numbers quickly sank after that.
There is no other way to explain how Bolling and McDonnell did so much better in their races than Kilgore. Yes Bolling was running against someone who makes Hillary look conservative, but McDonnell wasn't. In fact Creigh Deeds is probably slightly to the right of McDonnell, but
this didn't matter as McDonnell campaigned as a hard-core conservative.
