Survivor megathread

[morgankingsley]

Here is who I think is least likely to most likely to win

6. Owen = 0 vote finalist

5. Karla = the lowest ranking for someone I think has any chance to win, guessing F6 boot

4 . cody = either fire naking loser or the winner

3. Gabler = either wins or gets a 1 to 2 vote FTC runner up

2. Cassidy = either wins or F5 boot

1. Jesse = if he plays idol at 6, then 5, all he needs of FIC PR win fire

My guess is: Karla, cassidy, cody, owen, gabler, then Jesse

Regards -

Morgankingsley

December 3 2022

[Progressive Pessimist]

Here is who I think is least likely to most likely to win

6. Owen = 0 vote finalist

5. Karla = the lowest ranking for someone I think has any chance to win, guessing F5 boot

4 . cody = either fire naking loser or the winner

3. Gabler = either wins or gets a 1 to 2 vote FTC runner up

2. Cassidy = either wins or F5 boot

1. Jesse = if he plays idol at 6, then 5, all he needs of FIC PR win fire

My guess is: Karla, cassidy, cody, owen, gabler, then Jesse

Regards -

Morgankingsley

December 3 2022

Morgankingsley! It's been awhile!

Now in giving my take on who I think will win, I really don't know, I feel like everyone to some extent has potential to be the winner. Maybe Owen the least though, I will agree with that, and Cassidy definitely has "under the radar" winner likelihood, Jesse meanwhile should be an obvious target to vote out soon but if that doesn't happen is very much a front-runner should he make it to the end.

[morgankingsley]

Yeah, after tonight, Jesse either wins or goes out at firemaking, and Cassidy wins. But yeah, if he get's FTC, it's a debate on who gets second rather than anything else

If I had to guess:

Karla or Cassidy go at F5

Owen goes to F3 as a goat as 0 vote finalist

Gabler joins F3 and gets second place money (I'm guessing Ryan and Sami vote for him to create a 6-2-0)

Jesse plays immunity at F5, and then F4 is either his cornation or his dragon slaying

Morgan Kingsley -

December 7 2022

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

There’s no way Jesse doesn’t win. Just looking at the edit he’s gotten, nobody else has been talking about their family or their motivation to win in the same way he has. He’s constantly brought up his family, his life story, his drive to win in a way the other four remaining haven’t. I truly think we’re on the way to the culmination of one of the most dominant winning games in a while.

[Progressive Pessimist]

While I've been enjoying this season it has been a little bit on the forgettable side, especially compared to 42 (even though it thankfully lacks some of the gimmicks from that season and 41), save for a few personalities like Cody and Gabler, but last night's episode did a lot to make my impressions improve. Jesse's move was some truly Machiavellan s*** and he pulled it off! I think we'll see how he convinced Cody to give him the idol next week because the edit, cleverly, misled us all. And it just goes to show, lesson number one of 'Survivor' which will clearly never abandon advantages anymore, never tell anyone!

I hope Jesse wins because he deserves it, and I think even deserved it before this masterful move, but I still think there's the possibility of him becoming the new Rick Devens if he is forced into the fire-making challenge at the final four (where he will 100% be in because he still has his secret idol). He is a clear threat, and always should have been seen that way if he wasn't so good at hiding behind Cody, and out of desperation I can see someone giving up immunity and engaging him in fire just to get him out of there. From there Cassidy will probably be favored. I used to think Karla was a front-runner but her game has become sloppy, especially after last night and with her continued tensions with Cassidy.

If Jesse wins the final four challenge, of course, he basically coasts and the only question left will be whether he wins unanimously or not and how butt-hurt Cody may or may not be on the jury.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Never did I expect Gabler to win this season, but I think I agree with the jury's decision.  One of the most surprising winners relative to my expectations, for sure!

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Never did I expect Gabler to win this season, but I think I agree with the jury's decision.  One of the most surprising winners relative to my expectations, for sure!

Certainly one of the winners of all time. I probably would have voted for him too (except for being a hardcore Republican, so maybe for Owen due to my soft spot for underdogs - Michele, Romeo, etc) after that final tribal but damn. Losing Jesse was gutting and makes the whole season worse in retrospect with all the focus on him throughout the postmerge, IMO.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Can’t believe Gabler is gonna spend his winnings on $99 Trump digital trading cards.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I must also echo the surprise of Gabler winning. That's not to say that he wasn't deserving or anything, but it just felt weird. I don't know if it's because of his apparent meme status or if it was the edit. But what was even more shocking was to see how much he won by, being one jury vote short of a perfect game. Perhaps if it was something like a five to three vote I could have bought it more, but maybe this was a testament to Cassidy and Owen being weak finalists more than anything, especially given the arguments he presented at the final tribal council. I don't really know. But he seems like a decent enough guy at least, especially with donating the entire prize to charity. And I appreciate that he didn't use that as leverage during the final tribal. But he will always be an oddity of a winner with hindsight, I think. He is the archetype of a true wild-card.

Overall with this season though, I stand by putting it in between 41 and 42 when it comes to quality. It definitely picked up in the post-merge and offered a few unique personalities while also lacking some of the annoying gimmicks of the past two seasons, but 42 felt more memorable than this one and was entertaining throughout.

But I also must say that I am still not digging the new after-show format. Even with COVID restrictions being very much a thing of the past in most places, I wonder if they will ever return to live shows. I really would prefer that the contestants (all of them) reunite after having seen the edit, it offers much better discussion than the immediate aftermath of the game has. This one wasn't quite as uncomfortable to watch as in 41 and 42 at least. Cassidy in particular, despite losing, seemed to be in decent enough spirits. Owen, not so much. Though maybe liquoring the cast up with champagne helps.

And speaking of other notable cast-members Cody, Noelle, and maybe Jesse and Karla are shoo-ins for a future returnee season.

[7,052,770]

I mean, I guess I should have picked up on all his confessionals about "hiding in plain sight" and all that, but I was pretty confident in a Jesse victory going into the episode.

I haven't done winner rankings in a while, but Gabler's almost-perfect game should easily get him into the top 20. Maybe top 15?

[The Ex-Factor]

I thought 43 was a weak season with passive gameplay, boring characters, and an underwhelming F3 and winner.

Apparently production thinks 44 >>>>>>> 43, so I am hoping that that is better. The preview looked promising.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I thought 43 was a weak season with passive gameplay, boring characters, and an underwhelming F3 and winner.

Apparently production thinks 44 >>>>>>> 43, so I am hoping that that is better. The preview looked promising.

Thank God. They apparently also said that about 42 as compared to 41, and I felt the same way, so I’m cautiously optimistic, but man, seeing Jesse go out like that was really brutal.

[7,052,770]

Also, I don't feel like I have enough of an inkling on most of them to make a chart, but I'll suffice it to say they all come across as Democrats other than Gabler and possibly Cody (who could go either way and may not really vote anyway) and Justine (who?)

[Progressive Pessimist]

Also, I don't feel like I have enough of an inkling on most of them to make a chart, but I'll suffice it to say they all come across as Democrats other than Gabler and possibly Cody (who could go either way and may not really vote anyway) and Justine (who?)

Maybe I'm the only one who remembers her because she was this season's eye candy to me, but that evidently didn't last long.

[The Ex-Factor]

This link has some unconfirmed speculation on their political affiliations:

https://www.reddit.com/r/SpoiledSurvivor/comments/uuxq49/43cast_some_various_info_on_season_43s_players/

[Progressive Pessimist]

This link has some unconfirmed speculation on their political affiliations:

https://www.reddit.com/r/SpoiledSurvivor/comments/uuxq49/43cast_some_various_info_on_season_43s_players/

If true about Nneka, that's a bit surprising. I'm assuming she still caved and got the COVID vaccine in order to be on the show, right?

[7,052,770]

I'll accept my accolades on Elie, Cassidy, and Lindsay, all of which could plausibly have been conservative but seemed more likely to be liberal to me. Nneka though, wow, didn't pick up on that.

I'm assuming she still caved and got the COVID vaccine in order to be on the show, right?

Yeah, you have to be vaccinated to be on any CBS show, so that post may be exaggerating her beliefs.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I'll accept my accolades on Elie, Cassidy, and Lindsay, all of which could plausibly have been conservative but seemed more likely to be liberal to me. Nneka though, wow, didn't pick up on that.

I'm assuming she still caved and got the COVID vaccine in order to be on the show, right?

Yeah, you have to be vaccinated to be on any CBS show, so that post may be exaggerating her beliefs.

Cassidy had a very pro-Beto post on Twitter right before the election.

[SnowLabrador]

I was pretty surprised to learn that Nneka was a Republican too.

[Progressive Pessimist]

So, Netflix added "Survivor: Tocantins" this month. I'm going to re-watch it and see if my opinion of it improves. It's a pretty well-regarded season by most, but I haven't seen it since it aired in 2009 and remember finding it fairly forgettable and average for whatever reason.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yeah, so I rewatched 'Tocantins' and it definitely grew on me much like "David Vs. Goliath" did when i rewatched it last year. I'm not entirely sure why it didn't stick much with me from when I first watched it in 2009. Sure, I always remembered JT, Stephen, Coach, and Tyson (especially since they were returning players) but nothing else in the season resonated with me at the time.

Upon rewatch I'm surprised that I forgot about Joe being medically evacuated, the proposed Exile Island Alliance, poor Sierra being treated like s*** for reasons that confounded me (at least based on the edit-she didn't come across as dumb to me), and Taj's emotional reaction to her husband's message at the auction. There were truly a lot of memorable moments in this season and I'm actually surprised that Sierra and Taj (or even her husband) never came back in returnee seasons.

[7,052,770]

I hope Maryanne catches up on those last 6 episodes of Tocantins.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Yeah, so I rewatched 'Tocantins' and it definitely grew on me much like "David Vs. Goliath" did when i rewatched it last year. I'm not entirely sure why it didn't stick much with me from when I first watched it in 2009. Sure, I always remembered JT, Stephen, Coach, and Tyson (especially since they were returning players) but nothing else in the season resonated with me at the time.

Upon rewatch I'm surprised that I forgot about Joe being medically evacuated, the proposed Exile Island Alliance, poor Sierra being treated like s*** for reasons that confounded me (at least based on the edit-she didn't come across as dumb to me), and Taj's emotional reaction to her husband's message at the auction. There were truly a lot of memorable moments in this season and I'm actually surprised that Sierra and Taj (or even her husband) never came back in returnee seasons.

I think Taj has been asked back but doesn't want to play again.  It's not like she needs the money, given that her husband is Eddie George.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Any thoughts on the premiere of season 44?

To me it was chaotic, messy, ridiculous, and I kind of loved it. I am very eager to see how this season unfolds and this was probably the most gripping premiere of the post-COVID seasons so far.

[7,052,770]

Damn that sucks so bad for Bruce, injuring yourself literally like 1 minute into the game.

Saw that Jeff Probst has said he wants Bruce to come back though. Maybe they could repeat the twist from season 25 and have 3 tribes of evacuees. Maybe even episode 1 evacuees with Pat from 37 and the woman all the way back in 24.