Who's going to qualify for the Democratic debates?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Williamson gets a second poll, so she's in better shape than Bennet (and also de Blasio if that one poll doesn't count) now, since she also has the 65k donors.

[Mr. Morden]

New Fox poll is out, but I believe only Gabbard, Ryan, and Williamson move up from it, because none of them were at 1% in the last Fox poll:

Biden 10
Booker 10
Buttigieg 10
Harris 10
Klobuchar 10
O’Rourke 10
Sanders 10
Warren 10
Yang 8
Castro 7
Gillibrand 6
Hickenlooper 5
Inslee 5
Ryan 5
Gabbard 4
Bullock 3
Delaney 3
Swalwell 3
de Blasio 3
———qualification line———
Bennet 2
Williamson 2
Kerry 1
Messam 1

[The Other Castro]

Well, now this could get interesting. If Williamson gets her third, it’s tiebreaker time for other polls only candidates.

[brucejoel99]

Williamson gets a second poll, so she's in better shape than Bennet (and also de Blasio if that one poll doesn't count) now, since she also has the 65k donors.

Very surprising (& I'll be the first to admit, unexpected, at least on my part) that she got a second qualifying poll. Can't wait to watch all hell break loose tiebreaker-wise if she manages to get a third.

[The Other Castro]

Scenario 1: Bennet gets a third poll, Williamson doesn’t, and Bennet fills spot #20.

Scenario 2: Williamson and Bennet both get a third poll, securing Williamson a spot and rendering fundraising only path moot. Candidates with the fewest number of 1% polls are most at risk, which would be Delaney, Swalwell, de Blasio, Bullock, and Bennet (though the latter three may secure spots via fundraising as well, leaving it down to Swalwell and Delaney).

Scenario 3: Bennet doesn’t get a third poll, and Williamson makes it in just by fundraising alone

Either way, Gravel, Messam, and Moulton are pretty much doomed.

Edit: WTF happens if multiple candidates get exactly three 1% polls each, tying for the 20th spot? There doesn’t appear to be additional tiebreakers to resolve this.

[PaperKooper]

After all the new polling and de Blasio's announcement, the PredicitIt debate chances are as follows:

76% Williamson
75% De Blasio
59% Bennet
20% Moulton
8% Gravel
4% Messam

[brucejoel99]

Scenario 1: Bennet gets a third poll, Williamson doesn’t, and Bennet fills spot #20.

Scenario 2: Williamson and Bennet both get a third poll, securing Williamson a spot and rendering fundraising only path moot. Candidates with the fewest number of 1% polls are most at risk, which would be Delaney, Swalwell, de Blasio, Bullock, and Bennet (though the latter three may secure spots via fundraising as well, leaving it down to Swalwell and Delaney).

Scenario 3: Bennet doesn’t get a third poll, and Williamson makes it in just by fundraising alone

Either way, Gravel, Messam, and Moulton are pretty much doomed.

Edit: WTF happens if multiple candidates get exactly three 1% polls each, tying for the 20th spot? There doesn’t appear to be additional tiebreakers to resolve this.

I think at that point, the world just burns.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Scenario 1: Bennet gets a third poll, Williamson doesn’t, and Bennet fills spot #20.

Scenario 2: Williamson and Bennet both get a third poll, securing Williamson a spot and rendering fundraising only path moot. Candidates with the fewest number of 1% polls are most at risk, which would be Delaney, Swalwell, de Blasio, Bullock, and Bennet (though the latter three may secure spots via fundraising as well, leaving it down to Swalwell and Delaney).

Scenario 3: Bennet doesn’t get a third poll, and Williamson makes it in just by fundraising alone

Either way, Gravel, Messam, and Moulton are pretty much doomed.

Edit: WTF happens if multiple candidates get exactly three 1% polls each, tying for the 20th spot? There doesn’t appear to be additional tiebreakers to resolve this.

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[One Term Floridian]

Scenario 1: Bennet gets a third poll, Williamson doesn’t, and Bennet fills spot #20.

Scenario 2: Williamson and Bennet both get a third poll, securing Williamson a spot and rendering fundraising only path moot. Candidates with the fewest number of 1% polls are most at risk, which would be Delaney, Swalwell, de Blasio, Bullock, and Bennet (though the latter three may secure spots via fundraising as well, leaving it down to Swalwell and Delaney).

Scenario 3: Bennet doesn’t get a third poll, and Williamson makes it in just by fundraising alone

Either way, Gravel, Messam, and Moulton are pretty much doomed.

Edit: WTF happens if multiple candidates get exactly three 1% polls each, tying for the 20th spot? There doesn’t appear to be additional tiebreakers to resolve this.

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Every penny donated to Bullocks for President only increases the duration of Cocaine Mitch’s tenure as Majority Leader

[Mr. Morden]

Edit: WTF happens if multiple candidates get exactly three 1% polls each, tying for the 20th spot? There doesn’t appear to be additional tiebreakers to resolve this.

So they only have three qualifying polls, they're all at exactly 1%, and they haven't met the fundraising threshold?  Yeah, the rules don't explicitly say what happens then.

Ftr, Bullock, Delaney, Swalwell, de Blasio, and Bennet are all in this boat, where they haven't met the fundraising threshold, and all of their qualifying polls are at just 1%.  So if Williamson gets one more qualifying poll she's in, and if both she and Bennet get one more qualifying poll (and the others don't, and nobody new meets the fundraising threshold), then Bennet, Bullock, Delaney, de Blasio, and Swalwell would all be in a 5-way tie, fighting for four debate stage spots.  In that case, maybe they'd just kick out whoever was in last place on number of donors.

[Tender Branson]

I'm still favouring the 3-nights option.

And they should change that right now, because there are exactly 24 candidates.

Just 8 candidates each night would give the voters a better overview and more time for each candidate to respond to questions.

I think the dropouts will begin right after the first debate anyway, with Gravel and Messam calling it quits, so they can use 2 nights with 10 candidates each for the July debate.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Edit: WTF happens if multiple candidates get exactly three 1% polls each, tying for the 20th spot? There doesn’t appear to be additional tiebreakers to resolve this.

Then they look at the number of donors.

[Mr. Morden]

Edit: WTF happens if multiple candidates get exactly three 1% polls each, tying for the 20th spot? There doesn’t appear to be additional tiebreakers to resolve this.

Then they look at the number of donors.

Here is the DNC memo on the tiebreakers:

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000016a-9e3d-d399-afef-9ebdc4370001

Taken literally, it would seem to suggest that number of donors only comes into play if *fewer* than 20 candidates have reached the polling threshold.  But the scenario imagined above is one in which *more* than 20 candidates have reached the polling threshold (and are tied on polling average and number of polls).

[The Other Castro]

Here’s a handy chart:

[Mr. Morden]

Here’s a handy chart:

That's an excellent summary.  Williamson will get left out of the debate if Bennet manages to get a 3rd poll at 1% and she doesn't.  OTOH, if both Williamson *and* Bennet both get a third poll at 1%, then Bullock, Delaney, Swalwell, de Blasio, and Bennet are all in danger of getting left out depending on the details of the tiebreakers.

But Inslee and everyone above him on that chart are not going to get left out of the debate unless something really crazy happens in the next few weeks.

[Mr. Morden]

Wikipedia now asterisks the qualifications of both Bullock and de Blasio, noting that different news orgs disagree on whether they actually qualify on polling or not, for the reasons discussed in this thread.  I personally think Bullock should obviously count as qualifying, while the de Blasio case is an interesting one and I'm not sure the DNC should count "adults" numbers over "RV" numbers, but the DNC should clarify what exactly counts now that this has come up.  Maybe they'll both end up getting additional qualifying polls in the coming weeks, and it won't matter.

[The Other Castro]

de Blasio says he has reached 1% in three polls, so according to his campaign at least, the Reuters poll counts.

https://twitter.com/epngo/status/1129075264691081223?s=21

[PaperKooper]

PreditIt added more markets for debate participation:

92% Gillibrand
91% Delaney
85% Inslee
84% Swalwell
82% Bullock
81% Williamson (+5)
72% De Blasio (-3)
67% Bennet (+8)
15% Moulton (-5)
10% Messam (+6)
9% Gravel (+1)

[The Other Castro]

Inslee was already in decent shape with 5 qualifying polls, but he is apparently very close to hitting the donor mark as well, guaranteeing him a spot.

https://twitter.com/tommatzzie/status/1130546282307686400?s=21

[Mr. Morden]

A new Quinnipiac poll came out today, but every candidate who got 1% in this one already got 1% in one of their previous polls this year, so it doesn't change anything.  But it was another missed opportunity for those who need more polls and are stuck at 0%.

[Continential]

I'm still favouring the 3-nights option.

And they should change that right now, because there are exactly 24 candidates.

Just 8 candidates each night would give the voters a better overview and more time for each candidate to respond to questions.

I think the dropouts will begin right after the first debate anyway, with Gravel and Messam calling it quits, so they can use 2 nights with 10 candidates each for the July debate.

[Tender Branson]

Marianne Williamson has now qualified for the debate via polling and fundraising, which is quite remarkable.

She got 1% in CNN, FOX and Monmouth polls.

[Senator Incitatus]

Marianne Williamson has now qualified for the debate via polling and fundraising, which is quite remarkable.

She got 1% in CNN, FOX and Monmouth polls.

HELL YEAH

FREAKY YOGA CULT 2020

[brucejoel99]

Monmouth is also de Blasio's 4th qualifying poll in which he's at 1% (if, as presumed, the Reuters poll counts), so he's also now on better footing re: getting into the debate than Bullock, Delaney, & Swalwell (& potentially Bennet, if/when he ever gets his 3rd qualifying poll).

[Filinovich]

Monmouth is also de Blasio's 4th qualifying poll in which he's at 1% (if, as presumed, the Reuters poll counts)

He's already had a nationwide Monmouth poll. He either has 7 (in the cases where the same pollster can count more than once for tie-breaking) or 3 (in the cases that it doesn't; Ipsos, Fox, and Monmouth).