Who's going to qualify for the Democratic debates?

[idkk]

So, we're quickly approaching the 20 candidate cutoff (based on current qualified candidates and those that will have met the threshold by the first debate). It'll be interesting to who ends up on the stage and in what combination.

Refresher on the rules capping number of participants:

The DNC is also preparing for a scenario in which there are more than 20 candidates that qualify for a single debate. If that happens, the top 20 candidates will be selected using a methodology that favors candidates that meet both the polling and grassroots donations thresholds. That will be followed by the highest polling average, which will followed by the most unique donors, according to the DNC

[7,052,770]

If there are more than 20 candidates, they need to do a 3-night event. Cutting out people who meet the published requirements just because there happens to be more candidates than the party anticipated is rigged BS.

[eric82oslo]

Yeah, this is becoming a mess. 65,000 was clearly too low.

Yang is like the only outsider candidate to have gotten in thanks to the fundraising requirement. And given the pace of his online campaign, he would probably clear double that by the time of the debates.

This is true. He's already at 91,000 individual contributions and he still have 2.5 months left to fundraise until the debates start. I could see him clearing 150,000 contributions once the debates come around, possibly more if he were to get a big boost from the CNN townhall, just like Buttigieg and Harris got an extra surfboard thanks to their townhall reactions.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Gabbard just got 1% in the Quinnipiac California poll. Additionally she's just about at 65k donors. So she'll be qualified either way.

[Mr. Morden]

Gabbard just got 1% in the Quinnipiac California poll. Additionally she's just about at 65k donors. So she'll be qualified either way.

California polls don't count.  Only national polls + polls of IA/NH/NV/SC:

The DNC press release gives more details on qualifying pollsters:

Polling Method: Register 1% or more support in three polls (which may be national polls, or polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and/or Nevada) publicly released between January 1, 2019, and 14 days prior to the date of the Organization Debate.  Qualifying polls will be limited to those sponsored by one or more of the following organizations/institutions:Associated Press, ABC News, CBS News, CNN, Des Moines Register, Fox News, Las Vegas Review Journal, Monmouth University, NBC News, New York Times, National Public Radio (NPR), Quinnipiac University, Reuters, University of New Hampshire, Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Washington Post, Winthrop University.  Any candidate’s three qualifying polls must be conducted by different organizations, or if by the same organization, must be in different geographical areas.

[PaperKooper]

https://twitter.com/MikeGravel/status/1115668990049828865



I can't believe I'm saying this, but Gravel is on track to qualify for the debates. 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I wouldn't get too overconfident, but yes he has a good chance. At about $3.40, he's probably got the smallest donors of anyone running, and it'd probably be even lower if there wasn't the $4.20 option. I imagine a lot are just giving him $1.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/davelevinthal/status/1116102031721283584

[Filinovich]

Updated as of 11 Apr.

Readjusted numbers from percentages to decimals. Added a weighted polling average which weights polls by the inverse of the number of days that have passed since the end date of that poll. Sorting candidates by number of methods of qualification, then by that polling average.

[eric82oslo]

Tulsi Gabbard has also qualified through donations now.

[Mr. Morden]

Update after the Monmouth poll of Iowa: Delaney has now qualified on the basis of polling.  Yang's also qualified on the basis of polling, though he was already in on fundraising.  And both Ryan and Swalwell go from 0 to 1 poll where they're at 1%:

Biden 8
Harris 8
O’Rourke 8
Sanders 8
Warren 8
Booker 7
Klobuchar 7
Buttigieg 6
Castro 6
Gillibrand 5
Delaney 3
Hickenlooper 3
Inslee 3
Yang 3
———qualification line———
de Blasio 2
Gabbard 2
Bennet 1
Bullock 1
Kerry 1
Ryan 1
Swalwell 1

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Tulsi Gabbard has also qualified through donations now.

Boo

[Filinovich]

Updated as of 11 Apr. (Part Deux)

• Added Monmouth University Iowa poll (Ending 9 Apr. 2019).
• Updated Andrew Yang's qualification to include polling method.
• Rep. John Delaney has qualified through the polling method.
• Rep. Tulsi Gabbard has qualified through the grassroots fundraising method.
• Rep. Tim Ryan and Rep. Eric Swalwell have been added as active candidates.
• Weighted polling average has been updated

[eric82oslo]

https://twitter.com/mviser/status/1116091105634914305?s=20

Seems like at least seven candidates have already qualified through grassroots fundraising, including Buttigieg, Harris and Warren.

[Filinovich]

https://twitter.com/mviser/status/1116091105634914305?s=20

Seems like at least seven candidates have already qualified through grassroots fundraising, including Buttigieg, Harris and Warren.

Buttigieg is still in an exploratory committee (He has a pending announcement for the 14th). Added Harris and Warren.

[Filinovich]

I'd appreciate if the thread I'm typing in would remain the same for more than a week.

[PaperKooper]

I'd appreciate if the thread I'm typing in would remain the same for more than a week.

Where did your post with the link to the google sheet go?

[eric82oslo]

I'd appreciate if the thread I'm typing in would remain the same for more than a week.

Where did your post with the link to the google sheet go?

It's on page 4. Apparently his thread was merged with another thread.

[Filinovich]

I'd appreciate if the thread I'm typing in would remain the same for more than a week.

Where did your post with the link to the google sheet go?

It's on page 4. Apparently his thread was merged with another thread.

I've put it in my signature as well now.

[YE]

I'd appreciate if the thread I'm typing in would remain the same for more than a week.

I intended to merge it when I first saw the thread and even apparently started the process, but must have drew a blank somewhere along the line, and never got around to it so I’ll take the fall here.

[PaperKooper]

https://twitter.com/MikeGravel/status/1117516877050339328

😲

[PaperKooper]

So 14 candidates have qualified so far.  There are 5 candidates who are currently running whose status is as follows:

Gravel 0 polls, 17,397 donors
Messam 0 polls, donors unknown
Ryan 1 poll
Swalwell 1 poll
Williamson 0 polls, >46,000 donors

Gravel and Williamson seem to be likely to qualify.  Ryan and Swalwell may qualify on polling, but Messam seems somewhat unlikely. 

Bennet, Biden, Bullock, McAuliffe, and Moulton all have a >60% chance of running on PredictIt.  If more than one or two of them do, it's quite likely that more than 20 candidates will qualify for the first & second debates.  The DNC's tie-breaking criteria is:

If more than 20 candidates qualify for the debate, the top 20 candidates will be selected using a methodology that gives primacy to candidates meeting both thresholds, followed by the highest polling average, followed by the most unique donors.

I'm uncertain if this means the DNC will just pick candidates using the three criteria as tiebreakers or if they will create some more complicated standard incorporating them. 

[Mr. Morden]

So 14 candidates have qualified so far.  There are 5 candidates who are currently running whose status is as follows:

Gravel 0 polls, 17,397 donors
Messam 0 polls, donors unknown
Ryan 1 poll
Swalwell 1 poll
Williamson 0 polls, >46,000 donors

Gravel and Williamson seem to be likely to qualify.  Ryan and Swalwell may qualify on polling, but Messam seems somewhat unlikely. 

Bennet, Biden, Bullock, McAuliffe, and Moulton all have a >60% chance of running on PredictIt.  If more than one or two of them do, it's quite likely that more than 20 candidates will qualify for the first & second debates.

I don't think it's all that likely for the first debate, TBH.  These candidates (including the ones that just got in, Ryan and Swalwell) are getting in so late that they're probably not going to have enough time.  Gabbard *still* doesn't have a 3rd poll at 1%, and she's been in the race for about 3 months now.  She only just got in by reaching 65,000 donors.  And she at least has a niche in the race re: foreign policy.  I'm not sure why anyone is going to care enough about Ryan or Swalwell, or some of the candidates who aren't in yet, to give them $.  And I also think that Ryan and Swalwell were lucky to get 1% in the latest poll.  My guess is that they're going to have a slew of polls where they're at 0%.  There's only two months to go for qualification, and it's not like we're getting qualifying polls with all that much frequency at this point.  So some of these guys aren't going to make it, IMHO.

[PaperKooper]

Williamson hit 52,000
https://twitter.com/marwilliamson/status/1119126819016306688

Gravel hit 19,000

[Filinovich]

Williamson hit 52,000
https://twitter.com/marwilliamson/status/1119126819016306688

I mean, if you want to be pedantic technical about it, she hit 52,001.