Who's going to qualify for the Democratic debates?

[Mr. Morden]

There’s a new UNH poll of NH out.  But because we’ve already had a UNH poll of NH and the DNC says a given candidate can only count a given pollster once, the only people this helps are those who didn’t already have 1% or more in the last UNH poll, which would be Ryan, Yang, Messam, and Swalwell.  So now we have:

Biden 8
Harris 8
O’Rourke 8
Sanders 8
Warren 8
Booker 7
Klobuchar 7
Buttigieg 6
Castro 6
Gillibrand 5
Yang 4
Delaney 3
Hickenlooper 3
Inslee 3
———qualification line———
de Blasio 2
Gabbard 2
Ryan 2
Swalwell 2
Bennet 1
Bullock 1
Kerry 1
Messam 1

So Messam is now on the board.  And Ryan and Swalwell both move up from 1 to 2 polls where they’re at 1% or more, putting them both within striking distance of qualifying.

[Mr. Morden]

New Monmouth poll out: Everyone who got 1% in this one already got 1% in their last poll with one exception: Buttigieg.  So he's the only one who moves up:

Biden 8
Harris 8
O’Rourke 8
Sanders 8
Warren 8
Booker 7
Buttigieg 7
Klobuchar 7
Castro 6
Gillibrand 5
Yang 4
Delaney 3
Hickenlooper 3
Inslee 3
———qualification line———
de Blasio 2
Gabbard 2
Ryan 2
Swalwell 2
Bennet 1
Bullock 1
Kerry 1
Messam 1

[PaperKooper]

Williamson hits 54,000.  Slowing down a bit, but she's still easily on track to make it.  I estimate ~80k donors if her fundraising remains on track. 
https://twitter.com/marwilliamson/status/1120456875454214144

Gravel's fundraising has greatly slowed down.  He's at 21,555.  He's no longer on track to reach 65,000.  My back of the envelop math projects him to reach about 50k-60k if his current pace keeps up, although that was probably buoyed by his 4/20 donation drive. 

[Reluctant Republican]

In addition to the above post, Gravel's team now are saying they're attempting to go the polling route rather than donations:

https://twitter.com/MikeGravel/status/1120343032052822016

But Gravel's twitter a day ago put him at 25k donors, so I'm not sure how accurate that is. Even the post itself seems a bit unsure.

https://twitter.com/MikeGravel/status/1120427216427454465

[PaperKooper]

But Gravel's twitter a day ago put him at 25k donors, so I'm not sure how accurate that is. Even the post itself seems a bit unsure.

Good catch.  I remember the ActBlue widget reported 20k donors roughly a week after they announced it on twitter, so there may be a significant delay.  

[Filinovich]

New Reuters poll. Tim Ryan has now qualified.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

In addition to the above post, Gravel's team now are saying they're attempting to go the polling route rather than donations:

But the pollsters don't seem to be including Gravel. We have Bullock, de Blasio, and Kerry with polls counting towards the 3, but the pollsters never bother to poll Gravel.

[Mr. Morden]

With the new Reuters poll, Tim Ryan has 1% in 3 qualifying polls, and is in:

Biden 9
Harris 9
O’Rourke 9
Sanders 9
Warren 9
Booker 8
Buttigieg 8
Klobuchar 8
Castro 7
Gillibrand 6
Yang 5
Hickenlooper 4
Delaney 3
Inslee 3
Ryan 3
———qualification line———
Bullock 2
de Blasio 2
Gabbard 2
Swalwell 2
Bennet 1
Kerry 1
Messam 1

[Mr. Morden]

I just edited my post above to note that Bullock also moves from 1 to 2 (I missed that the first time).  So like de Blasio, he's on the cusp of qualifying for the debates despite not having announced yet

[PaperKooper]

So there are now 15 qualified candidates (including Gabbard on fundraising).  When Biden announces, it'll be 16.  Williamson should make it in on fundraising within a week or two, so then there will be 17.  Swalwell, de Blasio, and Bullock all only need one more poll over the next two months to qualify (de Blasio and Bullock also need to run).  Bennet, Messam, and Gravel all could still qualify as well, although they appear less likely at this point.  We're looking at both debates having almost the full 10 people, and it's not out of the question that someone who 'qualifies' could get bumped. 

[Tender Branson]

16 candidates now qualify for the debates, either via polling, donors or both.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/16-candidates-now-qualify-for-the-first-democratic-primary-debates

Marianne Williamson is very close to qualifying, she only needs fewer than 9.000 donors as of yesterday (she's gaining about 1.000 donors every day now).

Moulton, Swalwell, Gravel and Messam are not qualified yet, but the first two definitely will.

So, with Williamson, Moulton and Swalwell it would make 19 qualified candidates, leaving room for one more: either Bennet or Bullock. If both qualify, probably Williamson gets knocked out of the debates, which would be kinda a shame.

[Mr. Morden]

Moulton, Swalwell, Gravel and Messam are not qualified yet, but the first two definitely will.

Moulton has gotten 1% in zero qualifying polls so far, and he just got in the race this week, so his fundraising starts at 0 donors, with about six or seven weeks or however long it is to reach 65,000.  I'd say it's far from definite that he'll qualify by either measure within the allowed time.

[Tender Branson]

Moulton, Swalwell, Gravel and Messam are not qualified yet, but the first two definitely will.

Moulton has gotten 1% in zero qualifying polls so far, and he just got in the race this week, so his fundraising starts at 0 donors, with about six or seven weeks or however long it is to reach 65,000.  I'd say it's far from definite that he'll qualify by either measure within the allowed time.

If not by polls, Moulton and Swallwell will likely qualify with fundraising quite easily. They have shown that by running for Congress that they can raise a lot. And by running for POTUS, the money will come in even quicker than for Congress. And they still have until mid-June or something to qualify.

https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2019/04/seth-moulton-enters-2020-race

[Mr. Morden]

If not by polls, Moulton and Swallwell will likely qualify with fundraising quite easily. They have shown that by running for Congress that they can raise a lot. And by running for POTUS, the money will come in even quicker than for Congress.

I disagree with almost all of that. 

Sure, Moulton's done well in fundraising for his House seat, but much of that is for associated groups like his leadership PAC, which don't have the contribution limits of his regular campaign.  And I don't know why you would assume that running for POTUS, the money will come in even quicker.  People give $ to Moulton's reelection because he's presumably going to win reelection.  But he has essentially no chance of winning the presidency, so it's far from obvious that he's going to attract many donors.

Gabbard's also in Congress, and it took her about 3 months to reach 65,000 donors.  And she at least has something of a niche in the race in a way that I'm not sure Moulton does.  Moulton doesn't have 3 months to qualify for the June debate.  (Though the July debate seems more doable.)

[Matty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/EmmaKinery/status/1121841572478193664

[lfromnj]

LMAO how has her campaign failed so badly. I expected her bravery to get atleast a few voters.

[Thatkat04]

A year ago, I thought Gillibrand was a potential front runner. What the hell happened?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

A year ago, I thought Gillibrand was a potential front runner. What the hell happened?

We've seen candidates that looked great on paper tanking once they actually started campaining every season.

[Da2017]

I think one of the reasons she has't gained traction is she is seen as Hillary 2.0.

[Barack Oganja]

If you're Gillibrand why even continue to campaign? Just going to open herself up to maximum embarrassment

[John Dule]

I know I say this every time a Gillibrand thread pops up, but nobody should be the least bit surprised about this. The identity groups that she's trying to court all have better options in other candidates who aren't horrible hypocrites and flip-floppers. There is not a single voter in this country who feels any loyalty to Kirsten Gillibrand.

Glad about Gabbard and Yang though; hopefully they manage to at least get Buttigieg-esque "moments" and derail things a bit.

[HAnnA MArin County]

A year ago, I thought Gillibrand was a potential front runner. What the hell happened?

[Ilhan Apologist]

I'm not even a Gillibrand supporter, but I'm still pissed that calling for Franken to resign was what destroyed her.

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

Gillibrand is probably one of the stronger GE candidates for the Democrats, but they don't seem to recognize this yet.

[Heebie Jeebie]

This has prompted me to send a small donation her way.  While she's not my preferred candidate, I like Gillibrand and I definitely think she deserves a broader platform than joke candidates like Gabbard and Yang.

Also, this is big sign of just how weak the New York Democratic political machine is.  Compare to New Jersey, where Cory Booker has had no trouble lining up endorsements, donors, and party support.  New York Democrats need to get their act together.