Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[windjammer]

So according to the polls, the Basque Nationalist Party is going to decide who would become PM?
What is their opinion of VOX? I guess they won't like supporting an hardcore centralist party?

[windjammer]

Velasco,
Could you tell us which small parties, from the least likely to the most mikely, could support a PSOE-Podemos government?
Thanks!

[windjammer]

The right is going to win the election.

[windjammer]

What is the likeliest outcome now?

[windjammer]

So Sanchez will need bildu right?

[windjammer]

Any comments made by bildu? They will determine whether Sanchez will be able to govern or not after all.

[windjammer]

Have the canarians said anything?

[windjammer]

I looked at the polls for the canarian elections ans I guess the likeliest result right now would be some kind of Canarian-PSOE-the other center left party coalition?

[windjammer]

The result in Galicia is noticeable as well, as this region is another traditional PP stronghold. The Left got 46.6%, the Right 43.8% and leftwing nationalists 6.8%. To the contrary, the Right won in traditional PSOE strongholds like Extremadura (L 47.6%, R 50.1%).

Yeah, I was wondering about the big swing in Galicia. Any idea why the left did so well in there? In general the trend I surmise has the left do better in the Northwest and the East coast, but worse in the Southern half of the country. What do you think can explain that?

I guess immigration played a factor for Andalousia moving to the right. Maybe that's why Galicia has moved to the left?

[windjammer]

Massive polling dump from the CIS pollster. They were surprisingly accurate in the general election even if they were thought to have a big PSOE bias. In any case, here they go:

http://www.cis.es/cis/opencms/ES/NoticiasNovedades/InfoCIS/2019/Documentacion_3245-PreEAMPE19.html

Regional elections

Madrid



Murcia



Castille-Leon



Canary Islands



Castille-La Mancha



Aragon



Extremadura



Balearic Islands



Asturias



Cantabria



Navarra

NA+: 30.2% (16-17)
PSOE: 21.2% (11-12)
EH Bildu: 14.1% (7-8)
GBai: 14.0% (7-9)
Podemos: 10.8% (6)
IU: 4.4% (1-2)
PACMA: 1.5% (0)
Others: 2.4%

La Rioja



EU Elections



Here you can check the full results: https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/3635423/0/encuesta-cis-elecciones-autonomicas-municipales-europeas-26-mayo/

They also did local election polls for the largest cities (Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Seville and Zaragoza)


I personally believe CIS has gone back and is now giving massive landslides to the left. However, if true these would be devastating results for the Spanish right. Not only do they not make any gains whatsoever but actually lose several regions they've controlled since the end of the González era like Madrid, Canary Islands (CC) and La Rioja.

Castille-Leon of all places would be no better than a tossup! They would only be able to safely hold Murcia, with Castille-Leon leaning right (but being nowhere near safe) and La Rioja depending on whatever the regional PR+ does (I expect them to side with the left).

In particular these would be great results for PSOE; decent for PP and Podemos and very bad for Cs and especially Vox.

I certainly don't expect the right to lose Madrid; and I definitely expect the left to lose at the very least Aragon. I could be wrong, but this poll seems too good to be true, and it probably is

Could PSOE use the regional results to get an agreement with Bildu or Canaris?

[windjammer]

Any news about bildu?

[windjammer]

Any news about bildu?

If you are looking for government formation news, there are none, and won't be until after the regional/EU elections.

Sánchez doesn't seem all that eager to negotiate with ERC and Bildu so I guess he will just gamble on daring them (and JxCat) to vote against him.

It's easy to see Bildu/ERC caving and abstaining (which would give Sánchez a narrow majority on the 2nd ballot) but of course you then have to wonder how will he be able to pass a budget.

Another thing that has to be brought into the equation is the Basque regional elections. In theory they aren't due until Autumn 2020. However it's easy to see a snap Basque election happening this Autumn or Winter. Premier Urkullu has been unable to pass regional budgets, with Podemos, Bildu and PP voting them down in the regional parliament.

It's just a rumour at this point, but since Sánchez will depend 100% on PNV and possibly on Bildu, it's another thing to add into the equation. As if the regional elections weren't enough.

Galicia is also due for regional elections in 2020 but unlike the Basques Feijoo is certain not to call a snap election, especially because of the bad results for the right in Galicia. Feijoo will certainly overperform, but I think he will carry out a full term, especially since he has an overall majority after all, while next term he will be dependent on Cs, Vox or possibly both.

Well, if the secessionnist remain in prison, the swing voters will be CC. If not, it's going to be Bildu!

[windjammer]

So as of now, what is the likeliest coalition for a budget to pass?

[windjammer]

Any results?

[windjammer]

Any news about the elections?

[windjammer]

Now with the regional results, what is going to happen?

[windjammer]

Lol, so Sanchez isn't going to pass a budget and new elections will be held in less than 2 years!!!

[windjammer]

Nationwide precinct map of the Spanish Local Elections

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/votaron-elecciones-municipales-resultados-calle_0_904309592.html

Precinct map of the Madrid regional election

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/MAPA-resultados-Comunidad-Madrid-calle_0_903610901.html

The rivalry between Podemos founders Pablo Iglesias and Íñigo Errejón in graphs. Más Madrid, the list led by Ïñigo Errejón, got 14.7% (471k) in regional elections while the Unidas Podemos list backed by Pablo Iglesias got 5.6% (179k). The combined vote of Más Madrid and UP exceeded by 40 thousand votes the UP result in the general elections. Also, the combined result of MM and UP retained the 27 seats won by Podemos in 2015 (IU got 4.3% and didn't win seats), while the PSOE won 37 seats in both elections with a 2% increase in vote share. Compared to the EP results, UP lost nearly 230k and PSOE 157k. Presumably a vast majority of these votes backed Más Madrid in regional elections. With these results Ïñigo Errejón has stated the intention to create a new party inspired in the German Greens. For the moment this party would not extend outside the borders of Madrid, but Errejón doesn't rule out alliances with other regional forces to create a federal structure in all Spain.

https://www.eldiario.es/madrid/primera-electoral-Iglesias-Errejon-graficos_0_904309895.html

In the news: "Center-right Ciudadanos is under growing pressure not to do deals with the far-right Vox, which could allow the left to form a government in the Madrid region and elsewhere"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/05/31/inenglish/1559288173_006357.html

(...) his Italian-style situation has been brewing for years now, but it has been consolidated with the recent election results. It is also putting a spotlight on those who are offering Italian-style solutions, such as the Spanish-born Valls, the Ciudadanos candidate for Barcelona City Hall. He is offering his votes to the incumbent mayor, former campaigner Ada Colau, in a bid to keep control of the council out of the hands of pro-independence candidate Ernest Maragall. In the case of Íñigo Errejón, formerly of Podemos but who ran for the Madrid regional government with the Más Madrid party, he is offering to do a deal with Ciudadanos and the PSOE in order to keep the PP and Ciudadanos from relying on the support of far-right Vox to form a government both in the regional assembly and city council (...)

It would be dumb from them to make a deal with Mas Madrid and PSOE. Their electorate is definitely rightwing.

[windjammer]

It would be dumb from them to make a deal with Mas Madrid and PSOE. Their electorate is definitely rightwing.

I don't think it's dumb to explore alternatives that keep the far right out of power, but sadly the likeliest scenario in Madrid is the rightwing triumvirate. I'm not a big fan of Manuel Valls, but he's absolutely right in putting his principles above everything else.

Valls has destroyed the French left so hopefully he will destroy Ciudadanos.

[windjammer]

Yesterday there was a disgusting insult exchange between Vox and Cs via Twitter

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/04/inenglish/1562233109_074015.html

Ah yes, I saw the tweet. Charming party. Classy.

I mean, it's not that insulting. Honestly I understand Vox is pissed.

[windjammer]

According to journalist Enric Juliana, Dilma Rousseff contacted Iglesias and advised him not to carry the responsibility for a new election on his shoulder, as the consequences would be devastating for him and Podemos. In other words, Iglesias gave up to prevent the suicide of his organization

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20190720/463591241649/el-mensaje-de-dilma-rousseff.html

Why is Dilma Rousseff relevant to Spain?

[windjammer]

I fully understand Sanchez honestly. He has no majority anyway. What is the point if you cannot govern if you are trapped by terrorists (Bildu) and independentist (ERC)

[windjammer]

The French newspapers are blaming Podemos for this failure, accusing them of wanting to create a parallel government.

[windjammer]

The French newspapers are blaming Podemos for this failure, accusing them of wanting to create a parallel government.

Interesting. Are all the French papers blaming Podemos to the same degree? What say Le Figaro, Le Monde or Liberation?

I mean,
For most of them they just announced the news without any analysis. But for Liberation who is a well known leftwing newspaper, they have been extremely critical of Iglesias

[windjammer]

Well,
Pablo Iglesias needs to be deposed. If there are new elections, I suggest Podemo will take the blame.