Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on unknown date, 2021

[Lumine]

Will Cs turn to PSOE?

Right now it's very unlikely. At this point it's more a personal question for Albert Rivera than anything. The "social-liberal" faction favourable to deal with PSOE is small and the resignation of Toni Roldán weakened it further. Additionally, Rivera will purge the few remaining dissident elements from party leadership. The Vox insults are unacceptable, but they have every reason to complain at Cs cynicism. Regardless I loathe the party's ideology and proposals, I understand their anger when they are treated by CS as servants who must hide when visits come home. Anyway I think PP, Cs and Vox will find the way to retain Madrid and Murcia.

Why is there such personal loathing between Rivera and Sanchez? I never understood how it started, or when exactly things went to hell between the two of them after the 2016 PSOE-C's deal.

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How typically irresponsible of Sánchez. It's hard to find his attitude believable regarding A. abstention of C's or PP, considering the man spent months on the whole "No es No" attitude towards Rajoy and even resigned so he wouldn't have to abstain, B. coalition, as - although I strongly dislike Podemos - is it certainly not unreasonable of Iglesias to demand actual participation instead of the "offer" made.

I get why Sánchez does what he does, but he really has no one to blame but himself if he gets humiliated on the first vote. Not to mention the levels of hypocrisy arguably surpass those of Casado, Rivera or Iglesias as well.

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The first day of the investiture debate was depressing. Cs leader Albert Rivera is was particularly disastrous: overacting, deranged and resorting to conspiracy theories in the worst populist fashion. According to Rivera, Sánchez has a plan to destroy Spain. Currently the Cs leader is to the right of Casado and not so far from Vox, something like a modern José Antonio Primo de Rivera. Hearing his speech today, it's not difficult to understand why an increasing number of people is running away from the party. The relationship between Pedro Sánchez and Pablo Iglesias is strained, which is unsurprising. The Podemos leader showed restraint in his first reply to Sanchez, trying not to burn the bridges, but it became evident the negotiation is ran aground. Sánchez is not very enthusiastic with the idea of a coalition, apparently. Someone believes elections in November is not a bad idea.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/22/inenglish/1563807689_858287.html

 Spain’s acting prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, on Monday urged Congress to entrust him with office so that Spain “does not end up deadlocked.” (...)

In a two-hour address, Sánchez discussed the challenges that he will be tackling as the new leader of Spain: “Unemployment and precarious jobs, the digital revolution, the climate emergency, the discrimination of women and the future of Europe.” He also defended constitutional reforms to prevent future situations of post-election deadlock (...)
Towards the end of his speech, Sánchez appealed directly to Unidas Podemos: “Dealmaking is not easy, but we are united by the promise of the left.”

Podemos, which was aiming for a coalition government with the Socialists, says that so far Sánchez has only offered them “symbolic responsibilities” within his future government. The latter holds that a joint government with Podemos would be impossible due to irreconcilable differences over critical matters such as the situation in Catalonia (...)
 

Yeah, I had the chance to follow most of the debate and it was quite a mess. I do have a soft spot for C's, but even if Rivera scored some hits he sounded like a maniac with the "Plan Sánchez" nonsense and his absurdly aggressive tone.

Sánchez - though a decent orator - doesn't do himself any favors on account of his arrogance and blatant inconsistency, and Abascal was predictable and perhaps even forgettable.

I was far more impressed with Casado (who managed to sound measured and about a thousand times more mature than Rivera) and particularly with Iglesias, who probably won the day. If Sánchez wants to be President he can't expect every single other party to comply in exchange for nothing, and Podemos is most certainly not being treated fairly.

[Lumine]

"Third way" meaning, of course, everybody else just giving him a blank cheque to govern alone despite barely having a third of the seats in Congress.

His gamble of a new election in which he tries not to be seen as the responsible and gains seats may indeed work, but he hasn't been exactly serious about working with other parties thus far. Victory through attrition Rajoy style in terms of government formation may be clever, but it isn't exactly responsible.

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I sort of understand how Errejón is different from Iglesias in practical terms and perhaps on their different interpretations of how a party should be organized, but ideologically speaking, is there an actual difference?

Or is the perception of Errejón as sort of a more "moderate" figure (something I've read in newspapers, may not be accurate) based on his conception of politics and his criticism of Iglesias's insistence on a coalition and on having Podemos ministers in government?

[Lumine]

Sad to see Rivera and C's utterly implode, though it is understandable. One can hope the party may find a way to survive, but that (potential) result is just too harsh.

Hilarious to see Sánchez losing seats though, both because of his enormous arrogance and for gambling on a second election in the belief he'd gain seats like Rajoy in 2016.

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PP, C's and JxCat have said they'll vote against - CC hasn't ruled it out yet -, so it would seem they'll need ERC to abstain.

I know it's been said before, but still... Godd*mn, what was the point of the election then? Sanchez has made so many u-turns it's almost absurd.

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Vote transfers, according to Sigma Dos

Interesting! I can see why C's would lose so many votes to PP (and it's not difficult to explain why they'd lose some to PSOE and VOX), but what is the explanation for those levels of abstention? Is it a reaction to the swings of the party, the campaign, or something else?

[Lumine]

Certainly been a pretty big fall from grace for Juan Carlos.

Yeah, had he not been corrupt he probably goes down in history as one of the better monarchs in Spain; certainly the best since what, Alfonso XII? The short lived Amadeo I? Maybe Carlos III?

Now his legacy will be a lot more mixed. On one hand the will still be the king that turned Spain into a democracy and who voluntarily relinquished power; and who saved said democracy in a fateful night in 1981. On the other, he later became corrupt and surrounded by scandal.

One could even contend Juan Carlos's role in 1981 wasn't as heroic as it might seem, depending on the interpretation of what led Adolfo Suarez to resign on the first place (leaving aside more sinister conspiracy theories, which seem very hard to believe).

Could this bring down Felipe VI and the entire monarchy or is the King's political survival likely?

[Lumine]

He said he would be available if prosecutors needed to interview him.

All jokes aside, quite a dramatic step. I'd call it regrettable, but in light of his multiple scandals and how his democratic credentials are overrated, I rather hope they eventually catch him.

[Lumine]

Lorena Roldan has also defected from C's to PP, yet another blow to Arrimadas. The way things are going, I wonder if C's will even be able to contest the next general election.