Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[mileslunn]

Not sure if I'm the only one who's asked this, but... is there something resembling a possibility that shy Vox voters actually make it the largest party on the Right?

What are PSOE and Podemos at in the screenshot?

[mileslunn]

Excluding the Catalan separatist parties, wouldn't the smaller regionalist ones be more likely to support the left leaning bloc than right leaning?  Looks like it will be a mess and possibly another election later this year although I think smaller parties would be more likely to support left than right.  Right pretty much has to hit 176 or get very close to realistically govern.  And if they do hit that, do they have Popular Party or Citizens lead the way.  I would think Citizens would have a better chance of working with smaller parties than Popular Party.

Likewise if PSOE + Citizens have majority is there any chance Citizens will reverse their cordon sanitaire as there will probably a lot of pressure including from the EU for the two to work together since both are the most pro-EU.

[mileslunn]

LEFT: 158--166
RIGHT: 153-160
PSOE-C's: 164-170

*Prays for third option*

The third option is probably the best, but unfortuantely it has been excluded by Ciudadanos.
If this is the actualiteit  a PSOE/Podemos coalition with support of regional parties seems most likely

If left forms I believe that will be good news for minimum wage workers as they promise a 22% hike.  Terrible though if you make over 150,000 Euros as your taxes will go up.  In fact my understanding is for those making over 300,000 Euros, if PSOE + Podemos tax plan goes through, top marginal rates will be over 50% in 2/3 of Spain (sort of like what we have now in Canada for good or ill, and this tax hike wildly popular with most but hated by rich and economist mixed on idea).

[mileslunn]

Gad3 projections for regions (that make up their previous poll) are releasing. Only caught a few on my stream.

Madrid

10 Seats PSOE
8 PP
7 CS
6-7 Podemos
5-6 VOX

Everyone 1 in Cantabria

Castile & leon

PSOE and PP tied at 11-12
C's 5
Vox 2
Podemos 1

Castile La mancha
8 PSOE
5-6 PP
3-4 C's
3 Vox
1 Podemos

Catalonia
13-14 ERC
12-13 PSOE
8 podemos
5 C's
5 JxC
2 PP
1 Vox
1 Other

Ceuta goes Vox

Results in Madrid seem big deal for left as usually it votes right.  Ceuta going Vox is no surprise and I suspect they will win Melilla too.  That is ground zero for illegal immigration so makes a lot of sense.

[mileslunn]

Gad3 projections for regions (that make up their previous poll) are releasing. Only caught a few on my stream.

Madrid

10 Seats PSOE
8 PP
7 CS
6-7 Podemos
5-6 VOX

Everyone 1 in Cantabria

Castile & leon

PSOE and PP tied at 11-12
C's 5
Vox 2
Podemos 1

Castile La mancha
8 PSOE
5-6 PP
3-4 C's
3 Vox
1 Podemos

Catalonia
13-14 ERC
12-13 PSOE
8 podemos
5 C's
5 JxC
2 PP
1 Vox
1 Other

Ceuta goes Vox

Results in Madrid seem big deal for left as usually it votes right.  Ceuta going Vox is no surprise and I suspect they will win Melilla too.  That is ground zero for illegal immigration so makes a lot of sense.

Can someone explain why two cities in Africa are enthusiastic supporters of the party that is campaigning against Africans? It seems that if Africans creep you out maybe, you know, Africa is not the best place to live.

Most living there are Spaniards not Africans and they have a real problem with illegal immigration.  Since these are the only two enclaves in mainland Africa that are part of the EU and there are no internal border controls in mainland Europe once you get into those if not caught you can go anywhere in Europe.  They get far more illegal immigration than elsewhere in Spain.  Same reason why some of the strongest supporters of tough on illegal immigration in US live right along the Mexican border.  You see it more so more of an issue than those further away where it impacts their lives less.

[mileslunn]

4.2% in:

28.4% PSOE
19.0% PP
10.8% C's
11.5% UP
  7.9% Vox

What part of the country are these from?  It seems PSOE and PP getting about what polls suggested, but other three especially Vox way under.  Off course depending on what part of the country these are from may not be representative at all.

[mileslunn]

I noticed only 325 seats are given, are the other 25 having no results is that why?  For left I show 156 so 20 seats shy, while right is 135 which is 41 seats shy so won't both of those numbers go up as those shows a lot in neither group?

[mileslunn]

Almost 15% in and the left has 164 to the right's 135.

Vox is getting embarrassed.

Actually not totally surprised, polls almost always mess up on the far right, either they outperform big time or underperform big time.  Usually when there is a real threat of them forming government they underperform while when not over.  Examples of underperforming are France 2017, Netherlands 2017, Austria 2017, and Sweden 2018 while overperformance are Germany 2017, UK 2015, Italy 2018, Finland 2019, Norway 2017.  I think the threat of them holding balance of power might have led to some last minute pullback.  A lot who vote far right do so more as a protest vote to send a message to the elites and establishment.  Otherwise they don't actually want them to win, they just hope a strong showing will force government to change direction.

[mileslunn]

Almost 15% in and the left has 164 to the right's 135.

Vox is getting embarrassed.

And PP!! The margin between them and C's is narrowing...

PP was getting embarrassed the moment they chose Casado. Vox was at least expected to do better.

PP forgot that most votes are to be won in the center, not on the fringes

Is that true anymore.  A lot have been saying centre is hollowing out as we are seeing greater polarization.  I know Spain is very different than US, but certainly in US at least and also some other European countries there is the idea you win by appealing to your base.  Many have claimed social democrats crashing in most of Europe is due to Third way and that Corbyn despite losing but doing much better than most social democratic parties in Europe is proof you don't win through the centre.  BTW I still think elections are won in the centre, but there are a lot of talking heads out there that claim the centre is gone and you win by appealing to base so maybe they listened to those.

[mileslunn]

Just reminding you Guys that madrid sits at 6.26%. There is a lot still up in the air, so lets not bank everything on Basque County and Aragon.

True although Madrid seems to be swinging quite a bit to the left so far.  Off course it depends what part the votes are coming from.  I am guessing the city centre is fairly left wing while suburbs and surrounding rural areas are more right wing, at least that is the trend in most parts of the world.  If Madrid swings heavily to the left would not be surprised, urban/rural divides seem to be growing everyone with traditional left wing rural areas swinging rightwards while traditional right wing urban areas swinging leftwards.

[mileslunn]

PSOE + C's coalition would be feasible but C's have ruled this out so I wonder if they regret doing this?

[mileslunn]

This is dumb. PSOE+C's is obviously the best possible outcome for Spain, but dumb C's leadership is stopping it. At least Vox flopped.

Cs is are barely better than Vox. They've been pushing extremely far right over the last few years and aren't really a standard "liberal" party anymore.

What does it take for a party to get expelled from the ALDE?

In European parliament majority vote by parties represented.  I believe there are attempts to expel Fidesz from EPP so can be done.  ALDE though does include several centre-right parties and some like Venestre in Denmark or Centre Party in Finland have included far right parties in their coalitions so doubt it will happen.  Unlike North America, liberalism in Europe is more the classical type so most ALDE parties would be more comparable to the BC Liberals than federal Liberals.

[mileslunn]

What are the chances of him being able to pass the same budget.  My understanding is if all the parties voted the same way as earlier this year it would be 171 so 5 seats short, but of the two new parties, Cantabria Party and Compromis, those are both centre-left so would probably vote in favour so 173.  Will Sanchez have to tweak it or are there the additional votes to win.  I am guessing the minimum wage hike is fairly popular.  Not sure how popular taxing the banks or taxing the rich more is.  I know it is very popular in some countries, but less so in others so where does Spain stand.  Are a lot upset about income inequality thus want the rich to pay more or is there a fear higher taxes on the rich will just cause them to move to other countries?

[mileslunn]

So what is likelihood budget passes and if so any major revisions or just a few bones to regionalist parties?

[mileslunn]

What are chances of another election?  Or is it likely PSOE will likely form a coalition.  Also in terms of budget priorities as budget was by recent European standards fairly left leaning how likely is it that things like 22% rise in minimum wage, tax on banks, higher income taxes on those making over 150,000 Euros likely to go through?

[mileslunn]

Looks like a game of chicken between Podemos and PSOE seeing who will blink first.  Podemos is likely to lose seats so PSOE feels they have the upper hand, but an early election could precipitate a backlash and may not work in PSOE favour.

[mileslunn]

Pedro Sánchez wants constitutional changes to prevent deadlocks. Differences between PSOE and UP remain.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/11/inenglish/1562859165_143284.html

Following another failed meeting on Tuesday between Sánchez and Pablo Iglesias, head of the leftist Unidas Podemos group, the acting PM said he would call Iglesias on Thursday to try to kick-start “stalled” negotiations. While Sánchez considers Iglesias his natural ally, he refuses the latter’s demand for a coalition government.

“A government needs absolute internal cohesion, and on matters of state there are deep discrepancies with Unidos Podemos,” said Sánchez on the morning talk show Los Desayunos de TVE.

One of these differences is over the crisis in Catalonia. “They talk about political prisoners and the PSOE does not, we say there are politicians in prison. It is evident that there are deep differences and discrepancies that could paralyze a joint government with Unidas Podemos due to internal contradictions. My responsibility is not just to guarantee the investiture, but the stability of government as well,” said Sánchez, who is facing a congressional vote in two weeks to get officially back into the prime minister’s office. So far, he lacks enough support to be successful.

Podemos has already offered to accept in writing any conditions set out by the PSOE in connection with the handling of the Catalan crisis. But the response by a Socialist leader at party headquarters on Monday was that “people also sign mortgages, and later don’t pay.”

Rather than a coalition government, the acting PM is suggesting that Unidas Podemos could propose independent candidates to hold some cabinet positions. “Honestly, to me it seems like the most sensible and generous offer in the current situation,” he said.

Sánchez offered Iglesias to appoint Podemos ministers with a "technical profile", but not members of the party leadership. The Podemos leader rejected the offer saying he doesn't accept vetoes.

Regarding the deadlocks in Madrid and Murcia, Cs prefers new elections to open the way of deals with socialists. Oranges are also unwilling to make further concessions to Vox, either signing three-way agreements or modifications in the deals already signed with the PP. They simply expect that Vox compromises.

The best way to solve this would be to switch to FTFP or AV as then you would have majority governments, but that seems unlikely.  But like Italy and Greece, any talk of bonus seats for largest party as that would help increase the odds of a majority while still retaining some proportionality.

[mileslunn]

I think there is a good chance PSOE and Podemos will come to an agreement as it is in neither's interest to have another election, but even then it is still 166 in favour to 169 against so Sanchez needs to get either PNV or El Bildu, both Basque nationalists to vote in favour which may be tough or one either the Catalan nationalists or Citizens to abstain which seems unlikely, especially with the latter.  Still new elections are not inevitable, no doubt all parties will look at the polls and there is a chance one blinks, but also wouldn't be shocked if new elections happen.  There is a slight chance PSOE + Podemos might get majority as in European elections they got 176 seats, but a strong roll of the dice.  The right could also win a plurality, but a majority will be even more challenging although they can probably count on Navarre+ supporting them, but in terms of abstentions, I doubt they would get anymore than left would asides from maybe Canarian Coalition.

Real problem is Spain is not used to minority governments so no incentive for anyone to cooperate whereas in other countries like Germany, Netherlands, and Nordic Countries, minorities are the norm so parties have more incentive to cooperate.  Since minorities appear to be the norm in the future, I suspect one of two things will happen:
1.  They will start cooperating and in fact Citizens being in the centre may show greater openness to work with other side.  Heck the equivalents of PP and PSOE in Germany are right now in a coalition, but that is probably a bridge too far.
2.  Like Italy and Greece, they introduce bonus seats to increase the chance of a majority

One reason why I am glad where I live uses FTFP since for all its flaws, things like this happen far less often.

[mileslunn]

Someone is confusing minority and coalition I think.

And the current situation in the UK should provide a pretty good demonstration into the problems that FPTP can lead to. To say the least

True but point being countries where majorities are the norm tend to have trouble forming coalitions or workable minorities as opposed to those where minority governments are the norm.  I don't see Spain going to FTFP, but seat bonus for winner like Greece and Italy have is always a possibility, although with regionalist parties might be a tougher sell in Spain than those two, not sure about that.

[mileslunn]

At this rate, Sanchez is believing the polls, will allow Spain to go to a 2nd election, & will end up like Theresa May.

I think its still a toss up.  I suspect with risk for both parties, Podemos and PSOE will find a way to reach an agreement, but still only 166 For to 169 against so need either Bhildu or PNV to vote in favour.  Former is more left wing so seems more natural choice but leaves razor thin on budget and other votes.  Possible but far less likely Catalan nationalist will abstain while almost no chance Citizens will.  Real problem is a PSOE + Podemos majority only barely happens under the most optimistic polls while a Citizens + PP + Vox only showed in majority territory back in early April nothing since and recent polls show them well back never mind also probably Citizens and PP might fight over who would lead govt.  Off course with any early election a lot depends on whom is blamed so could swing either way.  I think Thursday's vote will probably fall short, but I suspect there will still be more negotiation before September to try and avoid an election, but who knows.

[mileslunn]

I could be wrong, but my prediction at this point, is investiture fails tomorrow, but a deal is reached before September as new election is a huge gamble and so its in the interest of both sides to avoid it.  Difficulty though will be passing legislation and the budget although since left wing parties do have a majority of seats, a broadly progressive agenda could theoretically pass if all sides put aside egos, but only need a few to not do so and it fails.

[mileslunn]

What is the earliest the next investiture vote can be held?  Do they have to wait until September or if PSOE + Podemos strike an agreement can they call one earlier since once they have an agreement they have the numbers.  It seems largely egos here is the big thing standing in between one as Podemos was asking for more ministries than realistic, but PSOE saying none initially also delayed the talks and created a lot of bad will.

[mileslunn]

From an outsiders perspective this all seems so superficial. I would have totally understood if the reason for the failure was a substantial policy difference (like in Israel), say on Catalonia or budget deficits. But the positions of the parties are so now close to each other, they agreed on a policy paper, they agreed on Iglesias to go out, they agreed on Podemos ministers in Governement...and now they are forcing the Country to new elections (and risking one of the few left-wing governments in Europe) because of squabbling over the exact allocation of ministries? Such things are usually (in Germany at least) the easiest thing to be settled. If people like Casado/Rivera say "well the left are too incompetent to even form a government, how are they going to keep the country together?", it will be hard to argue against that...  This is entirely on Sanchez (especially) and Podemos and they are putting the battle for the hegemony over the left ahead of the good of the country and ahead of progressive goals.

They will also probably face a lot of pressure from grassroots over this and if they end up blowing an opportunity, I suspect grassroots will be really angry.  Still things are moving closer and with 2 months left, an election may happen, but I think a deal is still very much a possibility.

[mileslunn]

The French newspapers are blaming Podemos for this failure, accusing them of wanting to create a parallel government.

Interesting. Are all the French papers blaming Podemos to the same degree? What say Le Figaro, Le Monde or Liberation?

I mean,
For most of them they just announced the news without any analysis. But for Liberation who is a well known leftwing newspaper, they have been extremely critical of Iglesias

Well, the article says the Podemos demands were excessive and I agree with that. On the other hand,  Le Monde correspondent Sandrine Morel says that Sánchez was overconfident and let the time go by. Both criticisms are correct, in my opinion. I'm not fluent in French  and maybe I'm missing something

https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2019/07/25/pourquoi-pedro-sanchez-n-a-pas-ete-reconduit-a-la-tete-du-gouvernement-espagnol_5493447_3210.html

How likely do you think it is they manage to form something by September.  On program and most issues divide seems small and if an election is called and right wins, I suspect many on left will be really angry at blowing a golden opportunity for a progressive government.  Or will threat of an election but enough that one finally agrees.

[mileslunn]

Would not another election just produce a similar deadlock as today ?

Yup as no way PSOE gets a majority on its own.  Right  if turnout is low could win a plurality, but only CC and Navarre+ would support them so unless they fall just shy of 176 no government as no way Catalan nationalists will support an even less sympathetic coalition while other regionalists asides two mentioned are all on political left..  But since Spain is not used to fragmented legislatures unlike elsewhere in Europe it might take a few before parties change. Or voters being tired of elections might coalesce around one party on each side of spectrum thus returning more towards a two party system.