Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Walmart_shopper]

Also, here's how my precinct looks like. This is particularly interesting as I live in the same town as Velasco (albeit in very different places it seems)

PP 39%
UP 23%
Cs 18%
PSOE 16%
CC 1%

With weird polarized politics like that it's got to be an middle-upper class suburb or neighborhood of Madrid.

[Walmart_shopper]

My updated prediction:

Your optimism is duly noted.

[Walmart_shopper]

I'm so bad at predictions and this is probably wrong, but at some point I'll get it right and look brilliant. So here it goes.

PSOE: 130
PP: 75
Cs: 45
Podemos: 35
Vox: 33
Otros: 32

PSOE-Podemos make a vote-and-supply deal with smaller parties to prop up a minority government.

[Walmart_shopper]

It seems that my fears about turnout were a bit too pessimistic... (until now)

At 14:00h, turnout is up 4% from 2016 and reaches 41.4%

My hunch is that would tend to dilute the vote share of Vox and the separatists, but who knows, I guess.

[Walmart_shopper]

From a more detailed report, it looks like the right and the left are both turning out, just in different parts of the country.

Here's for example El Ejido, the one municipality where Vox won in the Andalusian regional election:

2016: 34.5%
2019: 40.7%

Compare that to Andalucia at large:

2016: 37.6%
2019: 38.9%

So in Andalucia we might see the same phenomenon as in the regional election where it is the right that flocks to the polls.

In Catalonia meanwhile while turnout is up everywhere, secessionist rural areas (like Vic) are up more than unionist areas (like L'Hospitalet)

Just what we needed, more uncertainty

It's not hugely helpful in this context to look at autonomias anyway. When you look at turnout in a more granular or especially municipal level the picture is pretty interesting. PP hub Lugo and Vox base town of Almeria have only small turnout bumps. While leftist Alcocorn in Madrid has a more significant bump. It's also hard to predict what Catalonia will do, and a massive turnout in Barcelona could augur a major result for Podemos or the separatist parties.

But as a general rule the turnout is mostly up 3-5 points across the board without really favoring either the right or left.

[Walmart_shopper]

When the voting will end?

At this rate next decade. Spain should just have elections every every month until someone gets a majority.

[Walmart_shopper]

Here's another case of confusing turnout. Madrid's the most conservative of the bunch, but it has the average turnout. Frankly, if we remove Catalonia, it just looks like turnout is up everywhere by 2-4 points with a few exceptions.

Another good example of confusing turnout is Andalusia. On the surface, it looks bad for PSOE. But then on further analysis, the province with the highest turnout, Seville, is the only one where PSOE+AA had more votes then PP+C's+Vox in 2018.

Is Andalusia that confusing? In most places the turnout is sub par. The best places are Almeria and Seville. Almeria is obvious. As for Seville if PSOE turnout was strong you expect other high PSOE areas to see turnout increase well.  The solution to the riddle could be Seville was one of the best places for Podemos partner AA.

Turnout in Almeria, a Vox stronghold, is well below the national turnout bump.

[Walmart_shopper]

So 2 hours and 15 minutes to closing.

How does this work - is it just the standard European “exits immieately, then actual counting” formula? If so, then how reliable are Spanish exits?

I actually think it will be like Finland with early vote tallies, although I think that there might be a couple of polls released at 2000. Oddly I don't think they are actually exit polls, per se.

[Walmart_shopper]

Turnout is up nearly 10% at 6 PM!

What's fun is that literally nobody knows what that actually means for results given the novelty of Vox and where that turnout is especially high.

[Walmart_shopper]

18%(!) in Catalonia

Catalonia's turnout is ridiculous. Even higher than the regional election right after article 155!

Why would Catalonians be so energized to vote this year? And what would make previous non-voters choose now to finally vote?

[Walmart_shopper]

18%(!) in Catalonia

Catalonia's turnout is ridiculous. Even higher than the regional election right after article 155!

Why would Catalonians be so energized to vote this year? And what would make previous non-voters choose now to finally vote?

Fear is the best motivator. If if the map from earlier is still true, then the two provinces with the highest turnout increase from 2016 are Lerida and Gerona, which always vote separatist. The debate this entire campaign has been around Vox/C's/PP with their centralism, and Catalonia certainly doesn't wish to loose their federal rights.

But wouldn't that fear translate into a vote boost for the separists, but also some spillover to the leftist parties who are willing to at least in practice grant at least a little more autonomy?

[Walmart_shopper]

https://twitter.com/el_pais/status/1122544726463393793

Higher turnout in Ceuta and Melilla (two cities in Africa) seems good for Vox

I mean, we're talking about 60,000 voters. If Vox was putting their electoral future on Ceuta and Melilla then they may not even get into parliament at all.

[Walmart_shopper]

If there’s one thing even I as a relative novice to Spanish politics can be confident of it’s that this election will not hinge on the idiosyncrasies of the vote in Ceuta and Melilla...

I know that, but according to recent polling Vox has pretty big support in these two cities (in Ceuta it's even first), so maybe it's an indication of a wider trend in Spain.

Except that in the most conservative parts of Spain, where Vox would be expected to do well, the turnout bump isn't quite as strong as in the autonomous African cities. It seems that, as with Catalonia, it's a local phenomenon and not something that is being replicated elsewhere. The turnout is definitely higher across the board, but what makes those cities unique is that it is up more than in the conservative heartland or the southern coastal provinces.

[Walmart_shopper]

I'm still not sure that it's accurate to say that Catalonia's turnout bomb is a separatist thing. I think it's more of a just Catatonian thing. Barcelona, which is not known for its rabid separatism, has a turnout spike equal to the region as a whole. I'm sure that we'll see separatist parties do well. I just wouldn't be surprised if the left wing parties also get a boost from the Catalonian vote.

[Walmart_shopper]

Can someone explain the demographics of Vox voters and how that's different than PP voters?

[Walmart_shopper]

Excluding the Catalan separatist parties, wouldn't the smaller regionalist ones be more likely to support the left leaning bloc than right leaning?  Looks like it will be a mess and possibly another election later this year although I think smaller parties would be more likely to support left than right.  Right pretty much has to hit 176 or get very close to realistically govern.  And if they do hit that, do they have Popular Party or Citizens lead the way.  I would think Citizens would have a better chance of working with smaller parties than Popular Party.

The only way the right gets into power with these numbers is a new election, which isn't implausible given numbers like this. Assuming the accuracy of the polls, it pretty much comes down to whether Sanchez/Iglesias can at least coax the ERC and Bildu into a vote and supply agreement or whether Spain once again suffers new elections. Apart from the regionalism/separatism, there is a clear majority from the left here. The problem is that the separatism thing is a big thing.

[Walmart_shopper]

How long till the results start to come through? I'm not sure if I can bear another late night watching early hope turn into crushing despair...

An hour.  I feel, I really feel, your pain.

[Walmart_shopper]

How long till the results start to come through? I'm not sure if I can bear another late night watching early hope turn into crushing despair...

In the next minutes, i think results will start coming in. By 22:00h, the overall image will be clear.

I think they said they won't release data until the Canaries are done voting.

[Walmart_shopper]

I was watching the "exit polls" on Spanish RTE TV, but was not sure if those were exit polls or something conducted over the previous days ?

Does anyone know if these are proper exit polls done today, or in the last days ?

Three day tracking polls. I have no clue why but Spain doesn't do exit polling.

[Walmart_shopper]

From what we have now, it seems as if right-wing voters moved further right (and the right-wing parties all moved right) but moderate voters opted for the PSOE after all, with left-wing UP/PSOE swing voters coming home for UP after Sanchez' debate failure.

If (big if) this is accurate, C's are probably to blame for losing the election for the right by being way too open about how nationalist and right-wing they actually are. They shouldn't even be competing for voters with PP so much, they should also be competing with PSOE and then take their seats to the right.

I agree. But I also think that both Rivera and typical Cs voters are a lot more right wing than people normally think. It's not a centrist party. They certainly could become that and pick off PSOE voters, but that could risk bleeding voters to the PP.

The closest analog I can think of is Kulanu in Israel. They could theoretically move left, but there isn't any benefit to the party itself even though it could expand the bloc.

[Walmart_shopper]

Election day poll for the Valencian regional election. Unlike the general election ones, this one is VERY different from the earlier polls, so be ready for surprises

BTW IMOP/COPEs Valencia exit poll has Compromis leading by .5%, but lower in seats.

Is compromis more leftist than PSOE?

[Walmart_shopper]

Gad3 projections for regions (that make up their previous poll) are releasing. Only caught a few on my stream.

Madrid

10 Seats PSOE
8 PP
7 CS
6-7 Podemos
5-6 VOX

Everyone 1 in Cantabria

Castile & leon

PSOE and PP tied at 11-12
C's 5
Vox 2
Podemos 1

Castile La mancha
8 PSOE
5-6 PP
3-4 C's
3 Vox
1 Podemos

Catalonia
13-14 ERC
12-13 PSOE
8 podemos
5 C's
5 JxC
2 PP
1 Vox
1 Other

Ceuta goes Vox

Melila goes PP

Extramadura
5 PSOE
2 PP
2 Vox
1 C's

Galicia
9-10 PSOE
8 PP
2-3 Podemos
2 C's
1Vox

I have no clue what is happening in Castle and Leon, which is Spain's Catholic and right wing heartland. Madrid also looks surprisingly poor for Vox, where they were expected to do quote well.

Also, as I expected, the Catalonian turnout surge did end up helping the Socialists perhaps more than anyone else in the region.

[Walmart_shopper]

Gad3 projections for regions (that make up their previous poll) are releasing. Only caught a few on my stream.

Madrid

10 Seats PSOE
8 PP
7 CS
6-7 Podemos
5-6 VOX

Everyone 1 in Cantabria

Castile & leon

PSOE and PP tied at 11-12
C's 5
Vox 2
Podemos 1

Castile La mancha
8 PSOE
5-6 PP
3-4 C's
3 Vox
1 Podemos

Catalonia
13-14 ERC
12-13 PSOE
8 podemos
5 C's
5 JxC
2 PP
1 Vox
1 Other

Ceuta goes Vox

Results in Madrid seem big deal for left as usually it votes right.  Ceuta going Vox is no surprise and I suspect they will win Melilla too.  That is ground zero for illegal immigration so makes a lot of sense.

Can someone explain why two cities in Africa are enthusiastic supporters of the party that is campaigning against Africans? It seems that if Africans creep you out maybe, you know, Africa is not the best place to live.

[Walmart_shopper]

Wonder what this means for Casado.

It seemed like a dumb move in the first place for PP to chase him to the right. It didn't endear the far right and it alienated everyone else.

[Walmart_shopper]

Gad3 projections for regions (that make up their previous poll) are releasing. Only caught a few on my stream.

Madrid

10 Seats PSOE
8 PP
7 CS
6-7 Podemos
5-6 VOX

Everyone 1 in Cantabria

Castile & leon

PSOE and PP tied at 11-12
C's 5
Vox 2
Podemos 1

Castile La mancha
8 PSOE
5-6 PP
3-4 C's
3 Vox
1 Podemos

Catalonia
13-14 ERC
12-13 PSOE
8 podemos
5 C's
5 JxC
2 PP
1 Vox
1 Other

Ceuta goes Vox

Melila goes PP

Extramadura
5 PSOE
2 PP
2 Vox
1 C's

Galicia
9-10 PSOE
8 PP
2-3 Podemos
2 C's
1Vox

I have no clue what is happening in Castle and Leon, which is Spain's Catholic and right wing heartland. Madrid also looks surprisingly poor for Vox, where they were expected to do quote well.

Also, as I expected, the Catalonian turnout surge did end up helping the Socialists perhaps more than anyone else in the region.

What do you mean? The right seems to be doing fine in Castile and Leon.

The PP and PSOE are tied and Vox only nets 2 seats. Given the usual dominance of the PP there that is a really bad result for not only the PP but the whole rightist bloc.