|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 10, 2020, 12:59:37 am
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Dalla Piccola)
  Spanish elections and politics II (State of Coronavirus Alarm declared) (search mode)
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (State of Coronavirus Alarm declared)  (Read 90904 times)
kaoras
Rookie
**
Posts: 60
Chile


« on: April 28, 2019, 10:04:56 am »

I wouldn't dare to predict anything, because my crystal ball is not sending clear signs to me. It seems the Steve Bannon's oracle is talking through a medium from Austria. Everything is possible, but it seems clear that it's imposible to avert intoxication

Roll Eyes

Once again, you demonstrate your lack of understanding about Spanish politics. Rural areas do not lean uniformity to the conservatives/centralists, and urban areas do not lean uniformly to the left. The rural south also has much more voters then the rural north, making both geographic 'regions' parities on the national level. Vox is likely to get a 'good' score in Madrid for instance. The only place turnout is truly surging compared to the nation is in Catalonia, which is rightly afraid of the centralists/federalist debate that has dominated this campaign.

VOX has only received 0.2% last time, so it is hard to tell where their strongholds are now that they could get ~15% today.

Andalusian results indicate that Vox does better in typical right wing strongholds, don't know why this should change.

And honestly, your extreme lack of understanding of Spanish Politics wouldn't be so annoying if you weren't going to delight us with very insightful takes on Vox rise later tonight.
Logged
kaoras
Rookie
**
Posts: 60
Chile


« Reply #1 on: April 28, 2019, 02:38:52 pm »

Guys, you need to add "ECP- Guanyem el canvi" to UP total, it is its catalonian branch
Logged
kaoras
Rookie
**
Posts: 60
Chile


« Reply #2 on: April 28, 2019, 02:48:13 pm »

PSOE, Podemos, PNV currently on 176. That would mean no need for any of the independentists...

remember PNV is getting overpolled right now.
Doesn't matter for seat count
Logged
kaoras
Rookie
**
Posts: 60
Chile


« Reply #3 on: April 28, 2019, 02:52:18 pm »

The Muslim CpM is currently leading in Melilla

They always count muslim neighborhoods first. PSOE often appears winning the seat with little % counted and then is the usual PP landslide.

What will happen now with Vox irruption is anyone guess though.

Edit: and the same thing always happen in Ceuta.
Logged
kaoras
Rookie
**
Posts: 60
Chile


« Reply #4 on: May 26, 2019, 03:35:35 pm »

Early results seem to indicate a Nationwide PSOE wave
Logged
kaoras
Rookie
**
Posts: 60
Chile


« Reply #5 on: May 26, 2019, 06:17:54 pm »

Also, LOL at Vox at the european elections, they almost managed to lost half of its share in one month.
Logged
kaoras
Rookie
**
Posts: 60
Chile


« Reply #6 on: November 10, 2019, 03:17:17 pm »


I think when I posted these numbers back in April I failed to take into account the other smaller UP lists.

En Comú Podem and Galicia en Común are still shown separately in the MIR website

Yes, but in the MIR UP is at 10% so he is adding them while Jaichind was not
Logged
kaoras
Rookie
**
Posts: 60
Chile


« Reply #7 on: November 10, 2019, 03:18:07 pm »

22.73% counted

PSOE   29.21%
PP        20.38%
VOX     13.59%
UP        12.36%
C           5.58%
Mas       0.75%


Mas País has like 4 separate list that you would need to add but is honestly not worth it.
Logged
kaoras
Rookie
**
Posts: 60
Chile


« Reply #8 on: November 10, 2019, 03:27:05 pm »

30.68% counted

PSOE   29.23%
PP        20.39%
VOX     13.98%
UP        12.49%
C           5.83%
Mas       1.67% (I found 3 of the Mas lists)

Is Mas País-Equo ; Mes Compromis (I think this is the one you might be missing) ; Mas País and Mas País-Equo-CHA
Logged
kaoras
Rookie
**
Posts: 60
Chile


« Reply #9 on: November 10, 2019, 04:04:57 pm »

In the end, PSOE just needs more Yes than Noes, getting abstentions wouldn't be really that hard if they weren't so greedy.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines