Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[kaoras]

I wouldn't dare to predict anything, because my crystal ball is not sending clear signs to me. It seems the Steve Bannon's oracle is talking through a medium from Austria. Everything is possible, but it seems clear that it's imposible to avert intoxication

Once again, you demonstrate your lack of understanding about Spanish politics. Rural areas do not lean uniformity to the conservatives/centralists, and urban areas do not lean uniformly to the left. The rural south also has much more voters then the rural north, making both geographic 'regions' parities on the national level. Vox is likely to get a 'good' score in Madrid for instance. The only place turnout is truly surging compared to the nation is in Catalonia, which is rightly afraid of the centralists/federalist debate that has dominated this campaign.

VOX has only received 0.2% last time, so it is hard to tell where their strongholds are now that they could get ~15% today.

Andalusian results indicate that Vox does better in typical right wing strongholds, don't know why this should change.

And honestly, your extreme lack of understanding of Spanish Politics wouldn't be so annoying if you weren't going to delight us with very insightful takes on Vox rise later tonight.

[kaoras]

Guys, you need to add "ECP- Guanyem el canvi" to UP total, it is its catalonian branch

[kaoras]

PSOE, Podemos, PNV currently on 176. That would mean no need for any of the independentists...

remember PNV is getting overpolled right now.

Doesn't matter for seat count

[kaoras]

The Muslim CpM is currently leading in Melilla

They always count muslim neighborhoods first. PSOE often appears winning the seat with little % counted and then is the usual PP landslide.

What will happen now with Vox irruption is anyone guess though.

Edit: and the same thing always happen in Ceuta.

[kaoras]

Early results seem to indicate a Nationwide PSOE wave

[kaoras]

Also, LOL at Vox at the european elections, they almost managed to lost half of its share in one month.

[kaoras]

I think when I posted these numbers back in April I failed to take into account the other smaller UP lists.

En Comú Podem and Galicia en Común are still shown separately in the MIR website

Yes, but in the MIR UP is at 10% so he is adding them while Jaichind was not

[kaoras]

22.73% counted

PSOE   29.21%
PP        20.38%
VOX     13.59%
UP        12.36%
C           5.58%
Mas       0.75%

Mas País has like 4 separate list that you would need to add but is honestly not worth it.

[kaoras]

30.68% counted

PSOE   29.23%
PP        20.39%
VOX     13.98%
UP        12.49%
C           5.83%
Mas       1.67% (I found 3 of the Mas lists)

Is Mas País-Equo ; Mes Compromis (I think this is the one you might be missing) ; Mas País and Mas País-Equo-CHA

[kaoras]

In the end, PSOE just needs more Yes than Noes, getting abstentions wouldn't be really that hard if they weren't so greedy.

[kaoras]

The Castilles have but they don't get traction outside of UPL (Unión del Pueblo Leonés) which is not Castillian but rather Leonese-regionalist.

[kaoras]

That poll from Asturias is from SyM, honestly all of you should know better than to pay attention to that

[kaoras]

The new version of the Cs heart is really ugly. In the same note, I hate that the boring /♥️ is the new PSOE logo. Their traditional logo with the fist and the rose is so good, they should keep that. (I think even the red square alone is better)

[kaoras]

Well, is not Junts itself but Moviment de Esquerres which is technically a different party running on Junts lists. They used to run with ERC.

[kaoras]

I absolutely refuse to believe that ERC is capable of winning a real election (european doesn't count)

[kaoras]

The seats are still allocated by D'Hondt method over 4 separate districts right ?

Yes