Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

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Is that actually a bad thing for Vox though? Would they actually quite like the mantle of “outsider” going into these elections?

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Considering that there were two back-to-back debates during the polling blackout, the likelihood that the polls fail in disastrous fashion seems pretty likely. I think that the most plausible scenario would be an eyepopping Podemos overperformance, which wouldn't be difficult to accomplish. In the end though, there's a lot of uncertainty. No "side" has reason to feel very confident because we're all in the dark.

There's still polls, they just measure ***ahem*** people's fruit and vegetable preferences, or what hairstyle people like...

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So if i’m reading the turnout numbers right, turnout is up most in both right-leaning regions (Castille,Valencia etc) and separatist leaning ones (Catalonia, Basque Country). Not so much in places like Andalusia. Does not seem great for PSOE?

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Here's another case of confusing turnout. Madrid's the most conservative of the bunch, but it has the average turnout. Frankly, if we remove Catalonia, it just looks like turnout is up everywhere by 2-4 points with a few exceptions.

Another good example of confusing turnout is Andalusia. On the surface, it looks bad for PSOE. But then on further analysis, the province with the highest turnout, Seville, is the only one where PSOE+AA had more votes then PP+C's+Vox in 2018.

Is Andalusia that confusing? In most places the turnout is sub par. The best places are Almeria and Seville. Almeria is obvious. As for Seville if PSOE turnout was strong you expect other high PSOE areas to see turnout increase well.  The solution to the riddle could be Seville was one of the best places for Podemos partner AA. Of course they could be turning out to vote for PSOE...

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Here's another case of confusing turnout. Madrid's the most conservative of the bunch, but it has the average turnout. Frankly, if we remove Catalonia, it just looks like turnout is up everywhere by 2-4 points with a few exceptions.

Another good example of confusing turnout is Andalusia. On the surface, it looks bad for PSOE. But then on further analysis, the province with the highest turnout, Seville, is the only one where PSOE+AA had more votes then PP+C's+Vox in 2018.

Is Andalusia that confusing? In most places the turnout is sub par. The best places are Almeria and Seville. Almeria is obvious. As for Seville if PSOE turnout was strong you expect other high PSOE areas to see turnout increase well.  The solution to the riddle could be Seville was one of the best places for Podemos partner AA.

Turnout in Almeria, a Vox stronghold, is well below the national turnout bump.

Yes? And?

All of Andalusia has a lower increase in turnout compared to the rest of the country, Almeria is just the least worst with a 3.6 point increase, not far off the national average.

Anyway Vox tend to do better in areas that have low levels of absolute turnout.

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Big changes in the voting pattern compared to earlier. This is looking much better for left than right.

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If there’s one thing even I as a relative novice to Spanish politics can be confident of it’s that this election will not hinge on the idiosyncrasies of the vote in Ceuta and Melilla...

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Ciudadanos really imploded lol.

They are currently behind VOX even in Catalonia...