Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Michael19754]

New poll by Sigma Dos for El Mundo:
PSOE: 27.3% (110-114)
PP: 19.1% (71-75)
C's: 16% (54-58)
UP: 14.4% (37-39)
VOX: 13.3% (44-46)
Left Block: 41.7% Right Block: 48.4%
Coalitions: PSOE+UP+Nationalists: 173-179 seats/PSOE+C's: 164-172 seats/PP+VOX+C's: 169-179 seats

New poll by Sondaxe for La Voz de Galicia:
PSOE: 28.2% (116)
PP: 19.3% (76)
VOX: 14.2% (51)
UP: 14.2% (39)
C's: 13.5% (40)
Left Block: 42.4% Right Block: 47%
Coalitions: PSOE+UP+Nationalists: 183 seats/PSOE+C's: 156 seats/PP+VOX+C's: 167 seats

The PSOE strategy of conquering the center seems to be working very well. Centrist voters are fleeing from C's due to the party's cuddling with the far-right and its veto on a PSOE-C's coalition. The only problem for them is that their preferred option (PSOE-C's) is very far away from the 176 seats necessary for a majority, they'd need to win the separatists' support once again, which would much more difficult this time around.

[Michael19754]

The Invymark poll has better numbers for the right: PSOE 24.3%, PP 21%, Cs 20.2%, UP 13.9%, VOX 11.3%

Invymark has been overestimating the right for quite some time now. It is published by the progressive La Sexta, so they're probably trying to mobilize the left.
If you look at the combined left total in Sigma Dos , you can see that the gap with the right is becoming smaller. And take a look at the variations with the previous Sigma Dos poll:
PSOE: 27,3% +4,7 (110-114) +18
PP: 19,1% -0,1 (71-75) +1
Cs: 16,0% -2,8 (54-58) -12
UP: 14,4% -1,4 (37-39) -8
VOX: 13,3% +0,4 (44-46) +1
Clearly PSOE is taking away some vote from C's too, not from UP alone.

[Michael19754]

I think PP would be doing a much better under Soraya Saenz Santamaria than with Casado. She would attract moderate voters that, now, seem to be fleeing from C's to PSOE.

Honestly, I have my doubts about whether the PP would be doing better now with Soraya. On one hand, yes, a lot of moderate voters that are going to the socialists now would be supporting the PP. But on the other hand, one of Vox's main argument is that the PP is too soft and it resonates even with the very conservative Casado at the helm. With Soraya leading the party Vox would have more support right now.

Overall I think both effects would roughly cancel each other; but there are also many unknowns about what the party would have done under Soraya. For example, would it have reached an agreement with Vox in Andalusia?

[Michael19754]

The CIS has published its monthly poll and as always, the numbers are just ridiculous:
PSOE: 33.3% (up 3.4%)
PP: 16.7% (up 1.8%)
C's: 15.3% (down 2.4%)
UP: 14.5% (down 0.9%)
VOX: 5.9% (down 0.6%)
ERC: 3.3% (down 1.4%)
Left Block: 47.8% Right Block: 37.9%

Also mind that the survey was made during the relator mess, making it even less believable. If during those days the PSOE was on 33%, how much is Tezanos giving his party next time? 40%? 50%? Other notable aspects of the "poll" are VOX being laughably underestimated and ERC losing nearly a third of its voters for no apparent reason.

[Michael19754]

Valencia premier Ximo Puig (PSOE) calls regional election on April 28, alongside general elections.

Very, very risky. A regional election on April 28 means a worse result for Compromis, securing the PSPV's status as the main left-wing party, but it also means that the campaign will probably be nationalized, helping the right-wing parties. Could be the political suicide of the year.

[Michael19754]

Here's the new round of polling:
GAD3 for ABC:
PSOE: 30.6%(134 seats)
PP: 22.1% (87 seats)
C's: 13.2% (38 seats)
VOX: 12.1% (36 seats)
UP: 11.8% (30 seats)
Left Block: 42.4% Right Block: 47.4%
Coalitions: PSOE+UP+Nationalists: 189 seats; PSOE+C's: 172 seats; PP+C's+VOX: 161 seats

Sociométrica for El Español:
PSOE: 27.6%(119-121 seats)
C's: 17.8% (63-65 seats)
PP: 17.5% (69-71 seats)
UP: 14.1% (37-39 seats)
VOX: 12.1% (31-34 seats)
Left Block: 41.7% Right Block: 47.4%
Coalitions: PSOE+UP+Nationalists: 182-186 seats; PSOE+C's: 182-186 seats; PP+C's+VOX: 163-170 seats

Invymark for La Sexta:
PSOE: 25.2%(107 seats)
PP: 20.4% (81 seats)
C's: 20.3% (73 seats)
UP: 13.2% (34 seats)
VOX: 11.5% (28 seats)
Left Block: 38.4% Right Block: 52.2%
Coalitions: PSOE+UP+Nationalists: 165 seats; PSOE+C's: 181 seats; PP+C's+VOX: 182 seats

Each poll is saying something different: for GAD3, C's is going down to 2016 levels and for Sociométrica and Invymark the party is tied with PP. For GAD3 and Sociométrica the right-wing block is going to lose seats, while Invymark says it will win a majority. The only thing that seems clear is that PSOE is going to win by a substantial margin. Everything else is up in the air.
It should be noted, however, that the pollsters that work for conservative media outlets (GAD3 and Sociométrica) are the ones that are giving the left victory, while the one that works for a progressive outlet (Invymark)  is giving it to the right.
What's happening is very clear. No pollster knows what is going to happen and they're just trying to mobilize their camp's voters. Right wing pollsters are trying to water down the possibility of a right-wing government supported by VOX so that leftist voters fall in complacency while the left-wing ones are doing the opposite in order to mobilize the left.

[Michael19754]

The debate over euthanasia has been dominating the news cycle for the past few days. The cause of this is the assisted suicide performed by Ángel Hernández on his wife María José Carrasco, who was suffering from multiple sclerosis and had asked her husband multiple times to help her commit suicide in order to end the pain she was suffering. During the last days before the event Ángel recorded multiple videos in which he mantains conversations with his wife about her situation and her wishes, and in the last two videos he asks her wether she is ready to die (she says the sooner the better) and finally Ángel helps her ingest potassium chloride, effectively killing her. He immediatly turned himself in to the police and spent the night in jail, but he was released the next day without charges.
PM Sánchez later said in an interview in Telecinco that he was 'overwhelmed' by the images and he promised to regulate euthanasia if he's re-elected, while at the same time he criticised parliamentary obstructionism on the issue by C's and PP.
UP is following more or less the same line as PSOE.
C's has performed a flip-flop of sorts. The party now says it wants a cross-party consensus to legalize assisted suicide but on very limited circumstances, even though they blocked the grand total of 19 times a bill proposed by the government that would've have allowed the practice.
Meanwhile PP and Vox say they remain diametrically opposed to euthanasia and have supported palliative care instead.
Polls say that over 80% of Spaniards are in favor of euthanasia. The unexpected entrance of euthanasia in the public debate a few weeks before an election that was supposed to be about Catalonia and Spanish unity seems to be very good news for the left, which is being very successful in setting the tone of the campaign.

[Michael19754]

Turnout is up nearly 10% at 6 PM!

[Michael19754]

18%(!) in Catalonia

[Michael19754]

Invymark poll:
PSOE:35.9% (up 7.2%)
PP:15.1% (down 1.6%)
C's:14.0% (down 1.9%)
UP:12.9% (down 1.4%)
VOX:8.1% (down 2.2%)
20 point lead for Pedro Sánchez, if true puts pressure on C's, PP and UP to let him govern in exchange for nothing.