Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Oryxslayer]

On that subject, how do C's maintain their Catalan electorate in particular if they ally with Vox. Loads of them are ex-PSOE and/or from immigrant background. It makes little sense.

Maybe others can chime in here, but I get the feeling that the C's hierarchy of governments is:

Anything with C's leading
PP+C's
PSOE+C's
PP+C's+VOX







Anything with Podemos(or Podemos allies) or separatists

We didn't really get to see any theoretical government besides the PP+C's+VOX in Andalusia, but I suspect that was because of Mathematical reasons over anything else. With that in mind, the C's decision process post election is probably going to depend on math rather then anything else. Who will have the numbers: PSOE, or PP+VOX?

So they can sell this to their Catalan electorate by saying  "it was the mathematical option, PSOE+C's lacked majority." If PSOE+C's has a majority, then A C's red line will be a Harsh Catalan policy. This satisfies both sides of their Catalan coalition - the hard Spanish nats and the former PSOEs. If not, then they can say "PSOE won't do whats right for Spain and Catalonia, so we went with PP+VOX."

[Oryxslayer]

I assume the argument for April 28 elections vs in May is to force C to show its hand.  If C ends up backing a government in alliance with VOX that could drive some C-PSOE marginal voters to swing over to PSOE.  To have the the elections the same time as EU and local elections will not give PSOE this possible advantage in local elections.

A Cs spokesman has said already that deals with Pedro Sánchez are not on the table.  Oranges claim that Sánchez is a radical who has betrayed the country. It's the same mantra of Casado: Sánchez is sold to populists, separatists and friends of ETA. It's a complete nonsense, but right wing voters buy this message. Moderate and centrist voters could be different. It's clear that PP, Cs and VOX will arrange a government deal if they have the numbers. The socialists will try to exploit the picture of Casado (PP),  Rivera (Cs) and Abascal (VOX) together in the Colón square past Sunday. That's what I call the (reactionary) Triple Alliance. Once the government broke talks with separatists, socialists hope to mobilize voters contrary or reluctant over talks policy as well as moderate voters fearful of the VOX radicalism.

Anyway I think it's not going to be easy to mobilize left wing voters, on the fear of the Triple Alliance, and reverse the right wing drive. The electoral behaviour of left wing voters is different from the right wing ones. They need some illusion and a strong motivation to turn out in great numbers, while the right eing voters are more practical (their aim is to preserve the status quo). Right now average polling is PSOE 24%, PP 21%, Cs 18%, UP 15%, VOX 11%

That's politiking: C's realize that VOX is a danger to the third leg of the weird coalition of Macron-style Liberals, Classical Liberals, and Hard-Right Nationalists. I suspect they might be singing a different tune if C's and PSOE have the numbers (they don't right now) and Sanchez offers a big compromise to C's like Article 155.

[Oryxslayer]

There was another poll today which seems to be a lot more reasonable than the GESOP one

GAD3 for La Vanguardia



There will probably be a third one published, this time by Sociométrica-El Español

Interesting how C's+PSOE has a majority here, but the Right wing Triumvirate doesn't despite having a higher combined vote-share then C's+PSOE. This basis appears to be built on VOX a horrible vote/seat ratio, worse then even C's during their peak last winter. I guess we really have no idea how the VOX vote will be distributed in this regard, with the obvious exception being high voteshares in the exclaves.

[Oryxslayer]

Oh I understand how seats are allocated in Spain, that's why I mentioned the awful Vote/seat ratio, and compared it to C's's surgee. Back then, C's wasn't polling a full 'slate' of seats on it's vote/seat ratio - the surge votes were coming more from strongholds rather then evenly dispersed.

[Oryxslayer]

  So what is the vote % crossover point for a party running throughout the country like Vox to win a seat share approximate to its vote share. Looks like right now its 8.8% in the last poll gets it about 4.5 % of the seats. This wastage alone might be enough to deny the PP, C, and Vox a majority.

Well, no one really knows, but the more the better. (Try to think of Spain's seat to vote ratio as exponential instead of linear)

Keep in mind that the vote-seats ratio is not only dependant on the party's results, but also in the results of everyone else.

A good example is that PSOE got 175 seats (exactly half) in 1989 with only 39.6% of the popular vote.

Meanwhile in 2008 PSOE got only 169 seats with 43.7% of the vote.

The reason for this is that in 1989 the opposition was quite divided, with the 2nd largest party being PP with 25.8% of the vote. Meanwhile in 2008 the opposition was also unified with PP getting 39.9% of the vote.

Which is one of PSOE's strengths right now - they are polling in the High 20s whereas everyone else is between 10 and low 20s. So there are going to be quite a few PSOE 'bonus' seats thanks to their nationwide appeal and lead on the pack. The previous La Vanguardia poll for example has them getting between 15 and 20 seats above the pure proportional result.

[Oryxslayer]

The moves in Valencia are a classic case of poltiicians playing for the short term. Back when PSOE was down to the triumvirate, they didn't want to taint the locals. Now that they are about equal and PSOE is rising, local leaders want to hop on that train. Of course things can change in a month, so its a a rather short sighted move.

[Oryxslayer]

40 dB poll for El País. PP performing below 20% would be a catastrophe for Casado



The real campaign begins tomorrow with the TV debate in two rounds

So the Right-Left percentages haven't really changed, its just the distribution between the blocks that has shifted to the benefit of sanchez.

Whats really interesting is that PSOE-C's has a hypothetical majority (never mind how realistic) only on 43% of the vote.

[Oryxslayer]

Not sure if I'm the only one who's asked this, but... is there something resembling a possibility that shy Vox voters actually make it the largest party on the Right?

I mean Vox voters have been anything but shy,Vox surged following Andalusia in part because people now felt that they were a legitimate party. If there is another Vox surge its because polls fail to account for turnout (once again see Andalusia) or there is something going on post-debates that the polls cannot capture because of the ban.

[Oryxslayer]

 Any sense of what  the combined seat total of PSOE plus UP would be for a viable Sanchez government?

176?... The Catalans brought down this govt after all. The combined vote total doesn't need to be 50%+1 though, likely something around 43%.

Potential Govts:

1) Pure Left: PSOE+Podemos
2) Pure Right: PP+C's+Vox
3) Centrist, if nothing else works: PSOE+C's
4) The chaos from 2015/16 continues, and small parties are needed

Sanchez has been dealt the winning hand though, he just needs to play his cards right (And he has for a while now).

[Oryxslayer]

With the campaign coming to a close, here is my prediction

PSOE: 27% (110)
PP: 21% (79)
UP: 15,5% (50)
Cs: 15,5% (49)
Vox: 11% (32)
PACMA: 2% (1)

ERC: 3% (10)
JxCat: 1,5% (5)
PNV: 1,2% (6)
Compromís: 1,1% (3)
Bildu: 0,8% (3)
BNG: 0,5% (0)
FR: 0,4% (1)
CC: 0,3% (1)
PRC: 0,15% (0)
NCa: 0,15% (0)
NCa: 0,15% (0)

By bloc:

Right: 47.5% (160)
Left: 42.5% (160)
PSOE-Cs: 42.5% (159)

End result: Big mess, new elections in October

I take it you are expressing pessimism?

[Oryxslayer]

With the campaign coming to a close, here is my prediction

PSOE: 27% (110)
PP: 21% (79)
UP: 15,5% (50)
Cs: 15,5% (49)
Vox: 11% (32)
PACMA: 2% (1)

ERC: 3% (10)
JxCat: 1,5% (5)
PNV: 1,2% (6)
Compromís: 1,1% (3)
Bildu: 0,8% (3)
BNG: 0,5% (0)
FR: 0,4% (1)
CC: 0,3% (1)
PRC: 0,15% (0)
NCa: 0,15% (0)
NCa: 0,15% (0)

By bloc:

Right: 47.5% (160)
Left: 42.5% (160)
PSOE-Cs: 42.5% (159)

End result: Big mess, new elections in October

I take it you are expressing pessimism?

Yeah, somewhat, particularly for PSOE; but my prediction isn't that pessimistic and could be worse (like say a PP-Cs-Vox majority)

In fact if you believe ERC would support Sánchez this result would actually give him a decent working majority of PSOE-UP-ERC-PNV, with no need for PDECat.

Plus the option of a "coalition of chaos" that excludes the Catalans (PSOE-UP-PNV-Bildu-Compromís-PACMA) would be at 173, only 2 seats short of a majority. Though that is still 2 seats short.

I was thinking more in the vein of 'chaos.' Math, polls, and the MOE denitely seems to favor Spain getting a govt, rather then returning to 2015. But chaos is certainly a option.

For example, one situation we are discussing is a Vox surge. But such a surge (say 2-3%) likely pulls overwhelmingly from PP. Because of D'hodt, this likely causes the conservatives to lose seats overall thanks to the vote cut. PSOE from a govt. But if Vox pulls and surges based on turnout, and PP retains their vote, then theres a conservative govt as the left looses % overall.

[Oryxslayer]

Is there any 'seat calculators'/estimators' out there? Like I said on my Twitter, D'Hondt ends up apportioning seats in a Tangential way (Hard to win low%, easy to win high%) but the 'midpoint' of those Tangential functions differs based on overall parties and your national distribution. I have a good feeling that the Right vote is going cut itself to pieces considering Vox's Andalusia numbers correlated linearly with PP+C's numbers, but I would like to confirm/get an estimate with a calculator.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1122491926907957255?s=19

Here's another case of confusing turnout. Madrid's the most conservative of the bunch, but it has the average turnout. Frankly, if we remove Catalonia, it just looks like turnout is up everywhere by 2-4 points with a few exceptions.

Another good example of confusing turnout is Andalusia. On the surface, it looks bad for PSOE. But then on further analysis, the province with the highest turnout, Seville, is the only one where PSOE+AA had more votes then PP+C's+Vox in 2018.

[Oryxslayer]

The strong rise in turnout should be good news for VOX, as a lot of previously disappointed people seem to be coming into the fold now with that additional choice for them.

On the other hand, urban people will turn out against them - which might keep them "under control". I think my 17% for VOX should come pretty close to the actual results later during the night.

Once again, you demonstrate your lack of understanding about Spanish politics. Rural areas do not lean uniformity to the conservatives/centralists, and urban areas do not lean uniformly to the left. The rural south also has much more voters then the rural north, making both geographic 'regions' parities on the national level. Vox is likely to get a 'good' score in Madrid for instance. The only place turnout is truly surging compared to the nation is in Catalonia, which is rightly afraid of the centralists/federalist debate that has dominated this campaign.

[Oryxslayer]

18%(!) in Catalonia

Catalonia's turnout is ridiculous. Even higher than the regional election right after article 155!

Why would Catalonians be so energized to vote this year? And what would make previous non-voters choose now to finally vote?

Fear is the best motivator. If if the map from earlier is still true, then the two provinces with the highest turnout increase from 2016 are Lerida and Gerona, which always vote separatist. The debate this entire campaign has been around Vox/C's/PP with their centralism, and Catalonia certainly doesn't wish to loose their federal rights.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1122538753728368646



Also, whats going in valencia? Don't they have a provincial election concurent with the federal one today - so shouldn't they have the highest turnout?

[Oryxslayer]

Can someone explain the demographics of Vox voters and how that's different than PP voters?

Not much methinks. At least in their breakout election, Vox Votes correlated to PP+C's support, with a few exceptions in the migrant heavy areas.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1122559486546317312

[Oryxslayer]

IMOP-Cadena COPE election day poll



Keep in mind that these are not proper exit polls, but polls done during the campaign blackout period and published today. However the last 2 such polls were mostly accurate

Those MOE's are huge O_o

[Oryxslayer]

SocioMétrica/El Español has a majority in the MOE for PSOE+C's, and realistically there is a chance for PSOE+Podemos minority here

[Oryxslayer]

How long till the results start to come through? I'm not sure if I can bear another late night watching early hope turn into crushing despair...

In the next minutes, i think results will start coming in. By 22:00h, the overall image will be clear.

I think they said they won't release data until the Canaries are done voting.

So hopefully we get a proper dump then, rather than freaking out about 6 tiny randome municipalities in Castilla here VOX have done really well

Yeah their counting right now, but results bomb will come at 21.

[Oryxslayer]

PP has lost Galicia for the first time ever, according to the polls.

Expect the map to be near 100% red considering these vote splits, but the block and seat map will be more telling.

[Oryxslayer]

Election day poll for the Valencian regional election. Unlike the general election ones, this one is VERY different from the earlier polls, so be ready for surprises

BTW IMOP/COPEs Valencia exit poll has Compromis leading by .5%, but lower in seats.

[Oryxslayer]

anyone have a link to results?

https://resultados.elpais.com/elecciones/generales.html

https://www.resultados.eleccionesgenerales19.es/Congreso/Total-nacional/0/es

Everyones tied at 0 right now, but results are being counted. There is an embargo for 20 more minutes until the Canaries polls close, and then there will be a results bomb. 

[Oryxslayer]

Gad3 projections for regions (that make up their previous poll) are releasing. Only caught a few on my stream.

Madrid

10 Seats PSOE
8 PP
7 CS
6-7 Podemos
5-6 VOX

Everyone 1 in Cantabria

Castile & leon

PSOE and PP tied at 11-12
C's 5
Vox 2
Podemos 1

Castile La mancha
8 PSOE
5-6 PP
3-4 C's
3 Vox
1 Podemos

Catalonia
13-14 ERC
12-13 PSOE
8 podemos
5 C's
5 JxC
2 PP
1 Vox
1 Other

Ceuta goes Vox

Melila goes PP

Extramadura
5 PSOE
2 PP
2 Vox
1 C's

Galicia
9-10 PSOE
8 PP
2-3 Podemos
2 C's
1Vox