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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, afleitch, Hash)
  Spanish elections and politics II (State of Coronavirus Alarm declared) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (State of Coronavirus Alarm declared)  (Read 96961 times)
Mike88
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Posts: 3,031
Portugal


« on: February 17, 2019, 12:24:40 pm »

Hmm... It seems that there's some kind of trend towards PSOE and PP. PSOE numbers are going up because, probably, of the implosion of Podemos and PP seems to be gaining some voters from C's. Sociométrica poll is the only, of the 3 released yesterday, that shows PP and C's tied for second place.

Could that photo of Rivera next to Abascal be hurting C's? Maybe some C's moderate voters didn't liked what they saw and are now returning to PP, and some, who knows, to PSOE.
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Mike88
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,031
Portugal


« Reply #1 on: February 17, 2019, 02:28:19 pm »

Hmm... It seems that there's some kind of trend towards PSOE and PP. PSOE numbers are going up because, probably, of the implosion of Podemos and PP seems to be gaining some voters from C's. Sociométrica poll is the only, of the 3 released yesterday, that shows PP and C's tied for second place.

Could that photo of Rivera next to Abascal be hurting C's? Maybe some C's moderate voters didn't liked what they saw and are now returning to PP, and some, who knows, to PSOE.

There is an extreme volatility with sudden turns in public opinion, so we should be cautious with analyses and intetpretations. I think the only prediction that we can support right now is that PSOE, Cs and of course VOX eill get better results, while PP and UP are bound to lose support. In the case of Cs, I think that the picture in Colon Square and the government deal in Andalusia, which undeniably associate the oranges with the far right, are potentially harmful. At least the PSOE will try to take advantage of these develooments to recover ground in the centre. The talks policy damaged PSOE in previous months (additionally the crisis in Catalonia exacerbates division within the party), as well the bad cpmmunication policy: the Calvo's blunder with the "mediator" was the origin of the political storm that ended in the Colon Square rally, a failed sttempt of the Spanish Right to bring Sánchez down with a massive demonstration. The attendance was around 50k, a clear underperformance. In addition the picture of the Triple Alliance gives ammunition to the PSOE. Some people say the failure of the Colon Square rally and that picture determined Pedro Sánchez and his inner circle to call elections in April. I think your assumption that moderate Cs voters may turn to PP over that picture doesn't make much sense, because Pablo Cssado is a hardcore consrrvative with stances close to VOX. The Santiago Abascal party was the only winner in Colón Square. On the ither hand, VOX is growing mainly at the expense of PP but also at the expense of Cs. The result of VOX within the right wing block may determine if the Triple Alliance wins a majority or not
Interesting. When i say moderate C's voters coming back to PP, I mean former PP voters that were a bit turned off by the corruption scandals and all, and now are coming back to PP because C's seems to be just like PP. But, you're right, that maybe doesn't makes sense.
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Mike88
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,031
Portugal


« Reply #2 on: February 24, 2019, 12:49:12 pm »

The PP/C's seem, like Michael, to be losing moderate/centrist voters to PSOE. Of course, PSOE is benefiting with the implosion of Podemos, while the rightwing turn of PP and C's isn't also benefiting them because, i say, people prefer the original, Vox, than those who try to copy it, and might i say, very badly.

I think PP would be doing a much better under Soraya Saenz Santamaria than with Casado. She would attract moderate voters that, now, seem to be fleeing from C's to PSOE. But i would like to hear Tack's, Velasco's or Michael's opinion.
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Mike88
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,031
Portugal


« Reply #3 on: April 14, 2019, 10:47:46 am »

I think it's pretty clear, as of now, that PSOE will win with around the same % PP got in 2016, 33%. It will be interesting to see what happens in PP/C's after the elections, and if the results are what polls predict. Will Casado be kicked out of the PP leadership and Soraya makes a comeback? And C's? Will they eat their words and form an agreement with PSOE, or will there be a "refoundation" of the Spanish right like in the late 80's with a merge of PP and C's, if that's even possible.

Also, curiously, and for now, the Spanish elections are receiving almost zero coverage from the Portuguese media. Interesting, but that may change in the next few days, i assume.
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Mike88
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,031
Portugal


« Reply #4 on: April 14, 2019, 11:16:28 am »

Sondaxe poll for Voz de Galicia newspaper:

32.9% PP, 10 seats (-2)
29.7% PSOE, 10 (+4)
11.5% C's, 1 (+1)
10.9% UP, 2 (-3)
  4.9% Vox, 0
  4.4% BNG, 0
  2.4% En Marea, 0
  3.3% Others

If PP loses Galicia... Yikes.
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Mike88
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,031
Portugal


« Reply #5 on: April 22, 2019, 04:46:26 pm »

Good showing from Rivera, it seems. Pablo Iglesias not bad, Sanchéz average and total car crash for Pablo Casado.
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Mike88
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,031
Portugal


« Reply #6 on: April 27, 2019, 10:54:03 am »

A very critical factor will be turnout. Spain always had high turnout rates, but, the unpopularity of the main parties, plus the fact that all seem quite bad, could mean that turnout could fall to the lowest rate ever. This will heavily impact the balance between the left and right blocs.
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Mike88
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,031
Portugal


« Reply #7 on: April 27, 2019, 11:16:59 am »
« Edited: April 27, 2019, 11:33:01 am by Mike88 »

A very critical factor will be turnout. Spain always had high turnout rates, but, the unpopularity of the main parties, plus the fact that all seem quite bad, could mean that turnout could fall to the lowest rate ever. This will heavily impact the balance between the left and right blocs.

These kind of things are hard to gauge. But there are also things suggesting higher turnout this time. 2016 was so soon after the previous election, so there might have been some fatigue. Also, I think we have seen elsewhere a turnout boost when anti-immigration parties surge in the polls as they tend to attract many previous non-voters. Also the polarizing climate between the right-wing parties and independence movements might motivate more persons to go vote.
On the other hand, I guess Podemos' downturn could be partly due to their voters sitting out. Disappointed with the party's disunity, and lack of ability to affect real change?
It's just my hunch, of course, and you're right that there also also things that could make turnout increase on both sides. But, look what happened in Andalusia last year. Turnout was only 56%, with a huge depressed PSOE electorate and a unprecedented surge of Vox voters coming from the two main parties.

My view is that the majority of undecided voters are centrist/center-right voters who don't know what to do. They don't like Sanchéz, feel that the PP has become desperate, that C's is flip floping on many things and Vox, well, could be just unacceptable. They may just stay home. This time around, low turnout could benefit the left. We'll see.

Nonetheless, the level of uncertainty, drama and fear is unprecedented in Spanish politics.
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Mike88
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,031
Portugal


« Reply #8 on: April 28, 2019, 07:16:18 am »

It seems that my fears about turnout were a bit too pessimistic... (until now)

At 14:00h, turnout is up 4% from 2016 and reaches 41.4%
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Mike88
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,031
Portugal


« Reply #9 on: April 28, 2019, 12:44:36 pm »


I don't think so. Only polls done during the last few days. That's what i recall Tack saying.

According to RTVE, 27 million people cast a ballot. A record number.

I was really off regarding turnout... Yikes.
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Mike88
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,031
Portugal


« Reply #10 on: April 28, 2019, 01:03:19 pm »

According to the polls, no bloc has anything close to a majority.
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Mike88
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,031
Portugal


« Reply #11 on: April 28, 2019, 01:17:41 pm »

How long till the results start to come through? I'm not sure if I can bear another late night watching early hope turn into crushing despair... Smiley

In the next minutes, i think results will start coming in. By 22:00h, the overall image will be clear.
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Mike88
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,031
Portugal


« Reply #12 on: April 28, 2019, 01:19:30 pm »

I was watching the "exit polls" on Spanish RTE TV, but was not sure if those were exit polls or something conducted over the previous days ?

Does anyone know if these are proper exit polls done today, or in the last days ?

No exit polls. They are all tracking poll from the last few days.
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Mike88
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,031
Portugal


« Reply #13 on: April 28, 2019, 01:27:41 pm »

PP has lost Galicia for the first time ever, according to the polls.
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Mike88
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,031
Portugal


« Reply #14 on: April 28, 2019, 02:02:31 pm »

4.2% in:

28.4% PSOE
19.0% PP
10.8% C's
11.5% UP
  7.9% Vox
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Mike88
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,031
Portugal


« Reply #15 on: April 28, 2019, 02:24:14 pm »

Almost 15% in and the left has 164 to the right's 135.

Vox is getting embarrassed.

And PP!! The margin between them and C's is narrowing, and UP is less than 2% behind them.
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Mike88
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,031
Portugal


« Reply #16 on: April 28, 2019, 02:33:25 pm »

PP is falling every time the count is updated. Normally they rise as the vote is counted. I wouldn't be surprised if PP falls to 4th place in terms of votes.
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Mike88
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,031
Portugal


« Reply #17 on: April 28, 2019, 02:52:26 pm »

There is a tight race for 2nd place. The difference between PP, C's and UP is just bellow 2.7%.
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Mike88
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,031
Portugal


« Reply #18 on: April 28, 2019, 04:59:49 pm »

The 3 main leaders speaking at the same time...
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Mike88
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,031
Portugal


« Reply #19 on: April 28, 2019, 05:16:33 pm »


Well, it's still very unlikely but, Sanchéz did said in his speech that he will not do "sanitary cord" in Parliament. What does this means? We'll see.
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Mike88
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,031
Portugal


« Reply #20 on: April 28, 2019, 06:02:58 pm »

I don't understand why Casado didn't resign tonight. 16.7% is a Titanic mode result. If he continues until the Municipal and EP election in May, who knows how low the PP results will be.
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Mike88
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,031
Portugal


« Reply #21 on: October 19, 2019, 06:34:58 am »

Sanchéz strategy, IMO, seems to let the protests and violent clashes create a mood of frustration and anger in the Catalan society against the independence movements. If, in the past, sending more police to Barcelona didn't help, could the "let them burn strategy", and Torra's ridiculous flip-flop about the protests, turn many people in Catalonia against independence? 
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Mike88
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,031
Portugal


« Reply #22 on: November 09, 2019, 01:24:53 pm »

And in Portugal, some parties are making the same mistake other have made towards far-right parties: ignoring them and forbidding political initiatives in Parliament. CDS colapse and the PSD divisions aren't helping either, and Chega, in one pol,l is almost at 3%. We'll see how this unfolds, but the picture isn't good. Hope I'm wrong.

Unless there's some kind of huge swing for either the PSOE or PP, the deadlock will continue. Low turnout, if it happens could help the right and hurt the left, but, it would still be hopeless as the right wouldn't achieve a majority. The same for the left. ERC in Catalonia seems to be at odds with Puigdemont' party and allies, as, at least that's what I see, they seem to be creating a more moderate tone towards the Catalonia issue. If ERC sweeps Catalonia and Junts colapses, could ERC extend their hand to Sanchéz by proposing a more moderate position towards Catalonia? Or will PSOE more moderate wings block it?
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Mike88
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,031
Portugal


« Reply #23 on: November 10, 2019, 08:02:30 am »

Unless there's some kind of huge swing for either the PSOE or PP, the deadlock will continue. Low turnout, if it happens could help the right and hurt the left, but, it would still be hopeless as the right wouldn't achieve a majority. The same for the left. ERC in Catalonia seems to be at odds with Puigdemont' party and allies, as, at least that's what I see, they seem to be creating a more moderate tone towards the Catalonia issue. If ERC sweeps Catalonia and Junts colapses, could ERC extend their hand to Sanchéz by proposing a more moderate position towards Catalonia? Or will PSOE more moderate wings block it?
ERC is adopting a more pragmatic stance on paper, but don't forget that the Republican Left voted against the budget draft negotiated between PSOE and UP. Deals between ERC and the Spanish Left were very difficult in previous months, due to the obvious differences on the national question and the pressure from within the independence movement (Catalan nationalist leaders are always afraid of being called traitors by their radicals).  Now the situation is worse with the ruling of the Supreme Court. ERC leader Oriol Junqueras has been sentenced to 13 years in prison. How do you expect that ERC is committing to break yhe deadlock, given that terrible circumstance?

My idea was that the divide in the independence movement, between Torra/Puigdemont and ERC, would make ERC as the party that doesn't promote violence and hate in Catalan and Spanish societies. Maybe this is just wishful thinking, and of course the ruling didn't helped ease any tensions, not to mention Sanchéz "let it burn because they will get tired" strategy backfired completely. But, you're right, the conditions for a deal are really bleak, with no side caving in. I can also say that the feeling of annoyance is the same across the border, here in Portugal we just cannot stand any more Spanish instability news, and I can image the same feeling in Spain. Let's see how this unfolds.
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Mike88
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,031
Portugal


« Reply #24 on: November 10, 2019, 08:12:58 am »

Turnout figures at 14:00h:

Nov 2019 - 37.9% (-3.6)
Apr 2019 - 41.5%
2016 - 36.9%
2015 - 37.0%
2011 - 37.9%
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