Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[xelas81]

ABC has a great map of who ended up as mayor in each of the 52 provincial capitals


Posting only the link in order to combat mods

How did IU win Zamora?

[xelas81]

It's happening

Could there be another election after this, or do you think if inconclusive again one party will bend to avoid another election.  At this point it seems only a PSOE majority (next to impossible) or right wing majority (possible but not most likely outcome) only way to allow investiture next time around.

Well, there is another option: someone caves (whether it's PSOE, Cs, PP or Podemos).

In my opinion, the following scenarios are possible:

1) Right wing majority: The right forms a government. Whether that is PP-Cs with Vox outside support or a 3 way, I don't know, but it seems the right would be more responsible. However, I would personally love if the right was also unable to form a government and we went to infinite elections

2) JxCat as the key vote: This almost definitely guarantees a 3rd round of elections. The only possibility would be a PSOE government propped up by the centre-right, which probably is not happening. If Puigdemont's party ends up as the decisive vote, Spain goes to a third election.

3) Scenario similar to the current one: Probably the most likely scenario, albeit with some variations (PSOE+Cs probably won't have a majority again). Still, basically the entire country gets a big case of Deja Vu. Someone still needs to cave

4) PSOE+moderate nationalists/regionalists gets a majority: Unlike what is thought, PSOE does not technically need a majority to win. Assuming Podemos keeps abstaining after another election, just a small increase of PSOE and decrease of the right would be enough for a PSOE minority. Here's the scenario I'm describing, but with current numbers:

Yes: PSOE+PNV+Compromis+PRC (131)
Abstain: Podemos+ERC+Bildu+CC
No: PP+Cs+Vox+JxCat+NS (156)

So PSOE needs to basically gain around 13 seats or so, while at the same time the right loses just as many. PSOE getting into the low-mid 140 seats while Podemos and the nationalists hold is certainly concievable; just not particularly likely.

Is there any possibility of getting JxCat to abstain?

[xelas81]

How come BNG made the comeback?

[xelas81]

In other news, PP has offered PSOE a proposal for electoral reform. The new electoral system would basically be a rip-off of Greece's election system; expanding Congress to 400 seats and giving 50 extra seats to the popular vote winner.

In any case such a proposal would almost definitely be unconstitutional because of 2 provisions in Article 68 of the Constitution

-68.2: The electoral constituency is the province. The cities of Ceuta and Melilla shall be represented by one Member each. The total number of Members shall be distributed in accordance with the law, each constituency being allotted a minimum initial representation and the remainder being distributed in proportion to the population

-68.3: The election in each constituency shall be conducted on the basis of proportional representation.

The Spanish constitution makes it extremely hard to reform the electoral system, especially to make it more majoritarian (proposals to make it more proportional have been floated by UP/Cs in the past though and they are compartively simple).

In any case it is extremely unlikely that Sánchez would agree to the proposal, even if it would theoretically benefit PSOE.

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20191206/472073154629/casado-ley-electoral-acuerdo-prima-de-mayoria.html

In the extremely unlikely case it is somehow passed as a constitutional reform and gets a referendum I would probably vote no. I am not opposed to majoritarian systems, but bonus for winners like Greece or Italy's old system are not the way to go.

My "ideal" majoritarian system  would probably be a hybrid of the American election system (open primaries to all citizens, extremely loose party discipline) and the French election system (2 round elections, single member districts)

Would creating national PR list in additional to provincial PR lists to "make up" differences between seats and votes list be constitutional? It would increase seats for smaller national parties while slightly decrease seats for regional parties.

[xelas81]

Any updates on what is Mas Pais doing?
Is their goal to overtake Podemos and then PSOE?