Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Zinneke]

  So no plans to consolidate the vote with European elections in May?

That might be the target after all if Rivera finds his marbles and blocks the tripartite Right coalition.

On that subject, how do C's maintain their Catalan electorate in particular if they ally with Vox. Loads of them are ex-PSOE and/or from immigrant background. It makes little sense.

[Zinneke]

...what motive did they suggest the French and Morroccan spooks had in blowing up 200 civilians?

[Zinneke]

How can people seriously rate Rivera in debate performances. He came across as so overdramatic and rushed at the same time. His final speech basically akin to the kind of speech a sh**tty football coach gives to his team. Arrimadas was infinitely better in the debate previous to this one with the small parties. She is like an anaconda on any slip up her oponent lets on.  

In general the tone of the debates reflects the campaign though : lamentable.

[Zinneke]

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/MINUTO-POLITICO-Recta-campana-decidir_13_892190773_26522.html

A leading candidate for the Madrid Community says the governance of the city centre in relation to reducing car emissions is all wrong because traffic jams when you go out to dinner are part of the city's heritage.

I am really starting to think the Spanish Right is the dumbest Right in Western Europe.

[Zinneke]

They belong to the same political family and it's obvious that Salvini supports Abascal and not Sánchez. What proves and what's the point in embedding tweets like that?

Since you had just stated that they aren't similar and Salvini tweeted an endorsement? Didn't Salvini use to advocate for the separatists in the past? I dunno, I don't think I really "get" Europe's politics yet.

Lega yes, Salvini not so much.

[Zinneke]

Abascal talking about Reconquista is his victory speech...

[Zinneke]

I think even some right-wing voters value the autonomous governments. Vox pushed the other two parties to basically say they would invoke article 155 on a more permanent basis, and that probably didn´t help their cause at the doorstep.

[Zinneke]

I don't understand why Casado didn't resign tonight. 16.7% is a Titanic mode result. If he continues until the Municipal and EP election in May, who knows how low the PP results will be.

The spanish equivalent of 4chan raised a fund to send some minstrels to the PP headquarters...they are livestreaming on twitch. https://www.twitch.tv/videos/417788228?t=14s

His speech seemed defeatist but it would probably make little sense for the PP to change organisational structure so soon so theyll keep him. Hopefully Aznar s off though.

EDIT : Also PP LOST CONTROL OF THE SENATE which is a huge deal in the Constitutional debate (electoral reform, Catalonia trials, SUpreme Court, etc).

[Zinneke]

The utterly abysmal result for the PP is a timely reminder to all political parties not to push it; that there's a limit to what even a hitherto extremely hard and loyal electorate is prepared to take.

Yeah and the race to the bottom between them, C's and Vox as to who can be the most hardline on regionalists who want to "destroy" Spain backfired massively on PP in two dimensions : 1. when Rivera cleverly produced their history of allying with the PNV and Convergencia via buying them off 2. When centre right "unionist" voters in said regions realised they still preferred maintaining some semblance of normality there, which includes a devolved government.

This is dumb. PSOE+C's is obviously the best possible outcome for Spain, but dumb C's leadership is stopping it. At least Vox flopped.

I think you must realize that Cs is not exactly the equivalent of En Marche!, the Lib Dems or the Trudeau boys.

Sure, but at least they're pro-Europe, and being hardline on Catalonia is the right call. Anyway, PSOE majority isn't an option, and I certainly prefer C's to UP. Plus, a PSOE-C's government done right could sort of average out to LREM.

Ah yes, 400,000 extra indepe voters for ERC and JxC in the regional election called right after Article 155 as well as a net seat gain in this election (when some seperatists usually tactically vote for left soft unionists in national elections), not to mention that young voters are increasingly more radical in their pro-independence views thanks to the Spanish Right.

Worked like a charm!
  

[Zinneke]

Why has Catalonia and Paus Vasco became so left-wing?!
Och

National aspirations tend to have liberationist ideological tendency because it is usually a small population fighting for sovereignty against the powerful majority. Think Ireland under British rule, Palestine, etc.

Yeah but Catalan nationalism, at least at the leadership level, used to be dominated by a more bourgeois nationalist aspiration of deep seated paranoia of the central state as a tax collector. Rivera was being provocative but his assertion that Pujol, Torra and a few other Catalan nationalist grandees from the Convergencia side have a structurally xenophobic outlook on Andalucians and other Spanish communities is not that far from the truth.

If the nationalists in Catalonia swung towards ERC its because they were afforded an ideal platform with Rufían on national tv debates with his quips and Junqueras, this incorruptible christian guy, being an imprisoned matyr. Meanwhile the successors to Convergencia, Junts per Catalunya, despite their reasonably good results, are kind of a mess.

If the unionists swung left its because they are tired of the issue altogether and PSOE and Podem offered a platform of "convivencia ", peace, etc. while the Right had bellicist rhetoric. I imagine C's knew they were going to be trading votes of Catalan moderate unionists in favour of more right-wing electorates in the mainland.

[Zinneke]

I think Casado did as well as the PP could have done. Now if they have a result like that at the next election in a couple years time, that's a different story.

How? They did incredibly poor and it wasn't exactly because VOX overperformed. These are terrible results for them.

Does anyone really think that the moderate wing of PP who was probably more linked to Rajoy anyway would have stopped the bleeding of their support to parties to their right? That doesn't make much sense to me either.

Saenz de Santamaria would not have put utter blockheads like the head of list for the Madrid Community in such prominent positions for a start. And then let's also remember that PSOE have swung leftwards in recent years under Sanchez's stewardship. THe only reason people are screaming "the center has won" is because of Casado's abandoning of the center, making Sanchez-led PSOE the candidate of normalcy.

Sure long term PP to C's transfers is to be expected but this was a car crash campaign from Casado. THe dude litterally sold himself on the same terms as Rivera in relation to peripheral nationalists as his selling point and all Rivera had to do is just produce a headline with "PP in pact with PNV" at the debate. Had the debate been more centred on economics and in particular pensions (which is what the PP centrists are very good at arguing) he could have presented Rajoy's record...which whilst I do not condone, is statistically at least more credible than PP's record on corruption, social issues and peripheral nationalisms.

[Zinneke]

The question is when Arrimadas will wake up and realise she's progressive again...before or after her party heads for the PP-shaped electoral gutter in their province of birth.

[Zinneke]

I mean crimes like public funds misuse and corruption are also technically "victimless crimes". Except they are not. The victim in those cases is society as a whole.

This also applies here; the victim in this crime is Spanish society and the state as a whole.

This kind of measure will definitely improve the fulcrum of Spanish society.

[Zinneke]

I'm starting to think the countless elections benefit bipartisan politics and that C's collapse is also due to lack of resources, experience and obvious leadership outside of the broken record Rivera. How exactly is Arrimadas going to turn their fortunes around?

[Zinneke]

how accurate is this map?

[Zinneke]

Of course the EU will say nothing. The Spanish legal system has been a joke for years and they have said nothing. For the EU the Rule of Law as a concept is the Rule of a certain status quo, roughly what I would describe as ordo-liberal and saving face, with heavy doses of being in the right circles helping your case (which Spain has managed effectively in Brussels). They only care about the Central European countries because it suits certain narratives and it embarrasses the EU Soft Power machine, not because they actually care.

[Zinneke]

You are the internet equivalent of a cani. Pipe down and put your gelpot and white polo tshirt away.

[Zinneke]

You are the internet equivalent of a cani. Pipe down and put your gelpot and white polo tshirt away.

I mean, most canis would actually not wear polo tshirts but rather sports tracksuits or other similar stuff

i regret to inform you this is now a trend

[Zinneke]

Junts and their previous incarnations recently seem to be underpolled for some reason. Maybe too many respondents in BCN-metro area.

[Zinneke]

Gijon-Oviedo is another example.

[Zinneke]

[Zinneke]

Truly a bizarre party. Do they do any governing other than grandstanding about independence? Do Catalans care at this point?

They all converge (hey, what a coincidence) on one point though : for them Spanish institutions are rotten and a tabula rasa is the only solution. I think its difficult for people to understand this from the outside.

[Zinneke]

Wonderful strategy from the 155 hardliners. Really worked wonders! 15 seats overall? lmfao

[Zinneke]

Vox is an urban party but their best result percentage wise was in Val d'Arran.

I mean, Val d'Arran is an outlier where the overall "unionist" vote share in % is going to be far higher than most places.

[Zinneke]

https://i.ibb.co/qs2m7j8/cops.png


Remember the Police housing precinct we were discussing two months ago? Well, PSC topped the poll, but only because VOX and PP split the conservative vote.

That has to be the most hilarious result of this election. Although of course the Right bloc still beat the Left bloc easily.
Interesting how hard C's was destroyed here, much harder than the average.

The turnout drop is also... something.

I imagine given its functions are mostly bureaucratic...a lot of the CNP based there work from home these days