Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[jaichind]

Will the Senate be up for election in a snap election?  I can see PSOE doing well in the Senate election at least even if PP+C+VOX majority seems likely in the Lower House.

[jaichind]

Spanish Parliament Blocks 2019 Budget Bill

[jaichind]

I assume the argument for April 28 elections vs in May is to force C to show its hand.  If C ends up backing a government in alliance with VOX that could drive some C-PSOE marginal voters to swing over to PSOE.  To have the the elections the same time as EU and local elections will not give PSOE this possible advantage in local elections.

[jaichind]

It seems the key to this election is the vote share of UP and VOX.  There seems to be an inflection point around 13%-14% vote share (which could shift because it depends on the vote share of other parties) where above this threshold there will be a surge of seats and below it the seat haul seems low. So the question becomes is the VOX vote share like 10%-11% or 13%-14%.  Just like the question is also will UF vote share be 11%-12% or 14%-15%.  The polls seems to indicate that for both parties both levels of support are possible.  Weather one or both or none of these 2 parties gets around that inflection point seems critical to the nature of government formation post election.

[jaichind]

Assuming PSOE-UP does not get the numbers to form a government, under what circumstances will C join up with PSOE?  I assume if the PP-C gap is small then C will prefer to stay in opposition so it can overtake PP as the main party of the Right while a large PP-C gap would see C join up with PSOE?  If so I guess there is a contradiction since a weaker C performance also means that a PSOE-C alliance might not be able to form a stable government.     

[jaichind]

Ideally PP C and VOX all get around 16%-18% from a seat optimization point of view for the Right wing forces which is what I am hoping for.  While I suspect VOX might be under-polled I think there is a chance it might be over-polled as pollsters overcompensate for what took place in Andalusia.  Also I think there might be last minute VOX->PP tactical voting if there is a belief that VOX might not cross the threshold to get seats. Hopefully I am wrong and VOX can have a strong election night.

[jaichind]

 I do buy into the idea of previous non-voters who lean strongly to the right being more likely to vote this time around with Vox being a viable choice, whereas in previous elections PP was the only viable choice.  So in theory a greater % of the vote going overall to right wing parties just because of this.
  

As much as I want this theory to be true I tend to think higher turnout should work to the benefit of the Left just like in 2004 and 2008.  So far the signs are not good for a Right wing victory.

[jaichind]

With 10.56% of the vote counted it is

PSOE   29.53%
PP       17.42%
C        12.18%
UP       11.90%
VOX      8.59%

[jaichind]

With 10.56% of the vote counted it is

PSOE   29.53%
PP       17.42%
C        12.18%
UP       11.90%
VOX      8.59%

So so far we're looking at an overperformance for the Socialists and underperformance for the far-right.

C usually gets stronger as the count goes on so I think C will increase the most from here.

[jaichind]

With 17.01% of the vote counted it is

PSOE   29.69%
PP       16.99%
C        13.05%
UP       11.98%
VOX      8.97%

[jaichind]

I still think PP-C-VOX vote share will end up beating PSOE-UP by something like 3% but it will not be enough to stop PSOE due to mal-distribution of votes on the Right.    Oh well.

[jaichind]

With 23.02% of the vote counted it is

PSOE   29.72%
PP       16.87%
C        13.57%
UP       11.99%
VOX      9.22%

[jaichind]

I still think PP-C-VOX vote share will end up beating PSOE-UP by something like 3% but it will not be enough to stop PSOE due to mal-distribution of votes on the Right.    Oh well.

Yeah, seat distribution in Spain makes zero sense to me. It's almost as nonsensical as Australia. Can someone explain very briefly how this works? Bildu should have like 10 seats right now in a strictly proportionap system.

D'Hondt on a regional basis.

[jaichind]

With 29.60% of the vote counted it is

PSOE   29.80%
PP       16.76%
C        13.97%
UP       11.98%
VOX      9.40%

[jaichind]

Guys, you need to add "ECP- Guanyem el canvi" to UP total, it is its catalonian branch

Oops .. forgot about that

[jaichind]

With 36.65% of the vote counted it is

PSOE   29.76%
PP       16.72%
C        14.36%
UP       14.03%
VOX      9.59%

[jaichind]

With 92.27% of the vote counted it is

PSOE   28.79%
PP       16.69%
C        15.79%
UP       14.31%
VOX     10.24%

Two blocs pretty much identical which is a disaster for the Right.

[jaichind]

With 92.27% of the vote counted it is

PSOE   28.79%
PP       16.69%
C        15.79%
UP       14.31%
VOX     10.24%

Two blocs pretty much identical which is a disaster for the Right.

Worth noting that the left has almost always won. Spain has always been a left of center country.

This is the first time the right wins 2 elections back to back in the popular vote, and only the fourth time ever after 2000, 2011 and 2016.

When I said disaster it was more about the seat distribution. since under D'Hondt PSOE was going to get a lot of surplus seats it was critical that the Right bloc beat the Left by a solid margin to have a chance. Failure to do so was a disaster for them.

[jaichind]

Catalonia (82.9% reported)

ERC 24.6% 15 seats
PSC-PSOE 23.3% 12 seats
ECP 14.9% 7 seats
JxCAT 12.1% 7 seats
Cs 11.5% 5 seats
PP 4.8% 1 seat
Vox 3.6% 1 seat

Wow, this is a shock.  I thought there was a good bloc of anti-Independence voters that would flow to C.  Looks like they never materialized and they mostly voted PSOE.

[jaichind]

I think even some right-wing voters value the autonomous governments. Vox pushed the other two parties to basically say they would invoke article 155 on a more permanent basis, and that probably didn´t help their cause at the doorstep.

Yep. I figured it was something like that.

[jaichind]

With 97.82% of the vote counted it is

PSOE   28.70%
PP       16.69%
C        15.83%
UP       14.30%
VOX     10.26%

It is interesting to note that PSOE+UP are at 43% which is a decrease from 2016 by 0.78%.  I guess the various regionalism parties gained a  lot from greater turnout and increased vote share.

[jaichind]

PSOE + C's is not going to happen

Good.  C should let Sánchez deal with the Catalonia secessionists with his very narrow government and whatever he does just join PP and VOX in yelling "Traitor  !!Traitor !! Traitor !!"

[jaichind]

Exactly what is Sánchez's concern about having UP as part of the government?  Would he not want that so they share in the "blame" for any difficult decisions ?

[jaichind]

But on the Right side would not a weaker VOX drag down the Pan-Right seat count by eating up Right votes but falling short of thresholds in many places to get seats in an new election ?

[jaichind]

Socialists are now open to the incorporation of any Podemos member to a coalition government, with the sole exception of Pablo Iglesias. This means the incorporation of people with a "political profile" like the second-in-line Irene Montero is possible now, while the previous offer to Podemos was limited to people with a "technical profile"

200 artists make a plea for a progressive government

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/19/inenglish/1563525487_105458.html

  A group of Spanish artists has signed a manifesto urging the Socialist Party (PSOE) and Unidas Podemos to reach a governing deal in order to prevent a repeat election.

 
Javier Bardem and 200 other artists make plea for a progressive government in Spain
With talks between the Socialists and Podemos at a deadlock, a group of writers and performers has signed a manifesto demanding a deal to avoid a repeat election.

The petition is signed by more than 200 personalities from the world of culture, including actor Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men, The Sea Inside), writer Almudena Grandes (The Ages of Lulu, The Wind From the East) and film director Iciar Bollaín (Take My Eyes, Flowers From Another World) (...)

The manifesto states: “The April elections opened up the possibility that a progressive majority could reach an understanding to govern together. The people came out in force to send a clear message: We don’t want the far right anywhere near the mechanisms of power. But the general enthusiasm after the elections is dissipating as the PSOE and Unidas Podemos struggle to reach an agreement in government negotiations.”

“No party won a big enough majority to govern alone and polls have since shown that the people prefer for there to be an agreement between progressive parties. Now is the time to make a deal, come to an understanding, reach an agreement. Now is the time to make policy for the people,” the manifesto adds.

Would this approach even further anger Pablo Iglesias?  It is like saying "we will work with anyone but you personally". Now it is not even about ideology but personality.