Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Former President tack50]

why is criminal allowed to leave?

Well for one thing, however damning the evidence he hasn't actually been convicted of anything - or indeed yet charged? If that had happened, things would doubtless be different.

Not sure if this applies to the British Queen, but it is worth noting that it is actually impossible to charge the king for any crime commited while he was the head of state. So any bribes he took up until 2014 are 100% legal and he cannot be prosecuted for it.

Juan Carlos I could have murdered somebody in broad daylight and he would not have spent a single day in prison.

The fact that the king cannot be judged or sentenced to anything is also recognized in the Spanish Constitution:

The person of the King is inviolable and shall not be held accountable.

[EastAnglianLefty]

why is criminal allowed to leave?

Well for one thing, however damning the evidence he hasn't actually been convicted of anything - or indeed yet charged? If that had happened, things would doubtless be different.

Not sure if this applies to the British Queen, but it is worth noting that it is actually impossible to charge the king for any crime commited while he was the head of state. So any bribes he took up until 2014 are 100% legal and he cannot be prosecuted for it.

Juan Carlos I could have murdered somebody in broad daylight and he would not have spent a single day in prison.

The fact that the king cannot be judged or sentenced to anything is also recognized in the Spanish Constitution:

The person of the King is inviolable and shall not be held accountable.

As we don't have a written constitution, I don't think there's a clear answer to that. It probably depends upon whether you think the trial of Charles I was legally valid or not.

[Skye]

Juan Carlos I could have murdered somebody in broad daylight and he would not have spent a single day in prison.

Trump will be announcing his intention to run for King of Spain shortly after he loses the US election.

As we don't have a written constitution, I don't think there's a clear answer to that. It probably depends upon whether you think the trial of Charles I was legally valid or not.

I'm sure the King would have loved to hear it wasn't legally valid before he, you know, got his head chopped off.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Oh, arguing that the court had no right to try him was Charles' entire defence. His problem was that the court very much did not agree with him.

[jeron]

why is criminal allowed to leave?

Well for one thing, however damning the evidence he hasn't actually been convicted of anything - or indeed yet charged? If that had happened, things would doubtless be different.

Not sure if this applies to the British Queen, but it is worth noting that it is actually impossible to charge the king for any crime commited while he was the head of state. So any bribes he took up until 2014 are 100% legal and he cannot be prosecuted for it.

Juan Carlos I could have murdered somebody in broad daylight and he would not have spent a single day in prison.

The fact that the king cannot be judged or sentenced to anything is also recognized in the Spanish Constitution:

The person of the King is inviolable and shall not be held accountable.

I think this is the same in most monarchies. Common law has the same rule, although it is not written down

[CumbrianLefty]

A good argument against monarchy, if so.

[Velasco]

This context is not the best to shake up institutional stability, so I understand that the socialist part of the government is backing king Felipe right now.

In the light of recent news, I'd like to nuance a little:  

Despite I'm not monarchist and I'm not in love with the Bourbons, I can understand that Pedro Sánchez or the PSOE are backing king Felipe, for the sake of institutional stability, because the country is facing many problems. However, by no means I approve the secrecy and the opacity surrounding the exit of the allegedly corrupt 'emeritus king'. One of the main problems of the Spanish monarchy is the lack of transparency and accountability, as well the pact of silence that allowed Juan Carlos to develop his irregular activities with total impunity for many years, until the Botswana incident opened the Pandora's box. Sadly I'm getting the impression that the attitude of Sánchez towards the royal family is not very different from the attitude of the preceding PMs

[Former President tack50]

For the record, I will say that reforming the constitution to get rid of the monarchy is nearly impossible. Even if PP was to support it (lmao) and they agreed to overhaul the constitution for that, the process has some insane barriers. Basically the process is:

1) Get a 2/3 majority in both the Congress of Deputies and the Senate. This means, at the absolute minimum, PSOE+PP+UP need to support it.

2) After the reform gets passed with the 2/3 supermajority; a snap election gets immediately called.

3) After the snap election, you need again a 2/3 supermajority in both the Congress and the Senate to finally pass the reform and put it up to a referendum

4) Once the 2/3 supermajority is achieved twice; a referendum needs to be called. If the referendum is successful, the reform is finally approved

This is because the monarchy is part of the "entrenched" clauses of the constitution, for some bizarre reason.


There is an alternative option that goes against the spirit of the constitution but that would be technically legal, since the entrenching clause (article 168.1) is technically not entrenched itself.

Basically it would involve first removing the monarchy from the list of entrenched clauses, then reforming the constitution again to remove the monarchy. The process would be:

1) Get either a 3/5 majority in both houses of the Cortes Generales; or a 2/3 majority in the Congress of Deputies and 50%+1 in the Senate. This is the standard reform procedure, which has already been performed twice (1992 and 2011). Use this to remove the entrenchment clause from the constitution

2) If at least 35 MPs or 27 Senators request it (1/10 of either chamber), there will be a referendum. While this did not happen in 1992 or 2011 as the reforms passed with over 90% support in both chambers, it is almost certain to happen this time. So the referendum would need to happen

3) After the referendum, reform the constitution again to get rid of the monarchy. Same procedure as in point 1 (unless that got changed)

4) Again if 1/10 of either chamber asks for it, a referendum happens

Worth noting you still need PP support for this, so it is not going to happen, especially not in this way.

[CumbrianLefty]

I suppose the monarchy is partly "entrenched" in that way for historical reasons.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

For the record, I will say that reforming the constitution to get rid of the monarchy is nearly impossible. Even if PP was to support it (lmao) and they agreed to overhaul the constitution for that, the process has some insane barriers. Basically the process is:

1) Get a 2/3 majority in both the Congress of Deputies and the Senate. This means, at the absolute minimum, PSOE+PP+UP need to support it.

2) After the reform gets passed with the 2/3 supermajority; a snap election gets immediately called.

3) After the snap election, you need again a 2/3 supermajority in both the Congress and the Senate to finally pass the reform and put it up to a referendum

4) Once the 2/3 supermajority is achieved twice; a referendum needs to be called. If the referendum is successful, the reform is finally approved

This is because the monarchy is part of the "entrenched" clauses of the constitution, for some bizarre reason.


There is an alternative option that goes against the spirit of the constitution but that would be technically legal, since the entrenching clause (article 168.1) is technically not entrenched itself.

Basically it would involve first removing the monarchy from the list of entrenched clauses, then reforming the constitution again to remove the monarchy. The process would be:

1) Get either a 3/5 majority in both houses of the Cortes Generales; or a 2/3 majority in the Congress of Deputies and 50%+1 in the Senate. This is the standard reform procedure, which has already been performed twice (1992 and 2011). Use this to remove the entrenchment clause from the constitution

2) If at least 35 MPs or 27 Senators request it (1/10 of either chamber), there will be a referendum. While this did not happen in 1992 or 2011 as the reforms passed with over 90% support in both chambers, it is almost certain to happen this time. So the referendum would need to happen

3) After the referendum, reform the constitution again to get rid of the monarchy. Same procedure as in point 1 (unless that got changed)

4) Again if 1/10 of either chamber asks for it, a referendum happens

Worth noting you still need PP support for this, so it is not going to happen, especially not in this way.

Well it could be more difficult than this.

Italy has an entrenching clause about the form of government too (Article 139) except that instead of rendering the process more difficult and complicated, it directly says that it cannot be changed in any way.

And trying to remove the entrenching clause would be more difficult, because constitutional reform in general in Italy is more difficult.
(not to mention that the Constitutional Court would likely immediately block whatever attempt to remove/change Article 139)

[Mike88]

Well it could be more difficult than this.

Italy has an entrenching clause about the form of government too (Article 139) except that instead of rendering the process more difficult and complicated, it directly says that it cannot be changed in any way.

And trying to remove the entrenching clause would be more difficult, because constitutional reform in general in Italy is more difficult.
(not to mention that the Constitutional Court would likely immediately block whatever attempt to remove/change Article 139)

In Portugal the Constitution doesn't allow any change of the political system, according to article 288:

Article 288 - (Material limits of revision)

Constitutional review laws will have to respect:

(...)
b)  The republican form of government;
(...)

I believe this kind of Constitutional rules, forbidding or making almost impossible to change the political system, are quite common in every country.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Well it could be more difficult than this.

Italy has an entrenching clause about the form of government too (Article 139) except that instead of rendering the process more difficult and complicated, it directly says that it cannot be changed in any way.

And trying to remove the entrenching clause would be more difficult, because constitutional reform in general in Italy is more difficult.
(not to mention that the Constitutional Court would likely immediately block whatever attempt to remove/change Article 139)

In Portugal the Constitution doesn't allow any change of the political system, according to article 288:

Article 288 - (Material limits of revision)

Constitutional review laws will have to respect:

(...)
b)  The republican form of government;
(...)

Yes in Italy it is the same.
Article 139 is very short, it just states:
"The republican form of government cannot be subject to constitutional review"

[Velasco]

Blocked all the legal paths, apparently the only effective ways to change a political systen are: war, revolution, or a dictator dying in his bed (Franco did not die peacefully, because the 'Official Medical Team' opted for therapeutic obstinacy)   Interesting

[Mike88]

According to La Vanguardia, Juan Carlos is taking up temporary residence in the Dominican Republic. The 'emeritus' king left the royal residence of La Zarzuela on Sunday, then moved to Sanxenxo in Galicia and spent the night there. On the following day, he drove south and crossed the Portuguese border towards Porto. There he took a flight to the Caribbean country. Juan Carlos will be hosted by the rich Fanjul family (sugarcane growers) at Casa de Campo complex in La Romana

The new theory is that he's in Quinta do Perú, a luxurious golf club/neighborhood in the Peninsula of Setúbal, in a house owned by the Espírito Santo family.

That... doesn't look good., but it seems it's a house from a branch of the Espirito Santo family that is in a legal battle with the former chairman of the extinct Espírito Santo Bank, Ricardo Salgado.

[Velasco]

According to La Vanguardia, Juan Carlos is taking up temporary residence in the Dominican Republic. The 'emeritus' king left the royal residence of La Zarzuela on Sunday, then moved to Sanxenxo in Galicia and spent the night there. On the following day, he drove south and crossed the Portuguese border towards Porto. There he took a flight to the Caribbean country. Juan Carlos will be hosted by the rich Fanjul family (sugarcane growers) at Casa de Campo complex in La Romana

The new theory is that he's in Quinta do Perú, a luxurious golf club/neighborhood in the Peninsula of Setúbal, in a house owned by the Espírito Santo family.

That... doesn't look good.

Can you tell us something about the Espirito Santo family?

[Mike88]

According to La Vanguardia, Juan Carlos is taking up temporary residence in the Dominican Republic. The 'emeritus' king left the royal residence of La Zarzuela on Sunday, then moved to Sanxenxo in Galicia and spent the night there. On the following day, he drove south and crossed the Portuguese border towards Porto. There he took a flight to the Caribbean country. Juan Carlos will be hosted by the rich Fanjul family (sugarcane growers) at Casa de Campo complex in La Romana

The new theory is that he's in Quinta do Perú, a luxurious golf club/neighborhood in the Peninsula of Setúbal, in a house owned by the Espírito Santo family.

That... doesn't look good.

Can you tell us sometthing about the Espirito Santo fannily?

Like I said above, the house seems to be from a branch of the family that is in a legal battle with Ricardo Salgado, former CEO of the extinct Espírito Santo Bank. The family is a very old one and the family was quite close of the Spanish Royal family when they were exiled in Cascais, in the 50's and 60's. The Espírito Santos were one of Portugal's richest families owning a lot of properties and the Espírito Santo Bank, which was Portugal's largest private bank.

The Bank went into bankruptcy in 2014 as illegal money schemes literally destroyed the bank and the former CEO, Ricardo Salgado, is being accused of several crimes that cost the bank almost 12 billion euros in losses. Many illegal funds were created to fund things and divert money. Plus, taxpayers are still bailing out the bank created by the wreckage of the old one, the Novo Banco, almost every year and it's almost always in the political arena. But, the family is split right now. Many parts of the family didn't have any responsibilities in the bank and lost a lot of their fortunes and some branches are in legal fights to receive compensations.

[Velasco]

How the departure of Juan Carlos was planned

https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-08-05/how-the-departure-of-spains-former-king-was-planned.html

The departure from Spain of former king Juan Carlos I was decided at a face-to-face meeting between himself and his son, the reigning Felipe VI.

On Monday it emerged that Juan Carlos, who reigned for nearly 40 years and guided the country through a peaceful transition to democracy following the death of dictator Francisco Franco, had left Spain for an unknown destination (...)

The Spanish government was aware of the conversations, but the final decision was in the hands of Felipe VI

The downfall of Juan Carlos

https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-08-04/the-downfall-of-spains-juan-carlos-i.html

The annus horribilis of the Spanish monarchy began in April 2012 in Botswana, 7,200 kilometers from Zarzuela Palace, Spain’s royal residence. But it lasted much longer than 365 days. Indeed, it hasn’t ended, despite the fact that Spain’s emeritus king, Juan Carlos I, announced on Monday that he would leave Spain to ensure his reputation would not continue to harm his son, King Felipe VI, who became head of state in 2014. Juan Carlos’ trip to Botswana was not his first safari, nor was the woman he was photographed with, Corinna Larsen, his first female friend. But the royal household would soon discover that this trip would mark a “before and after” for the monarchy  

[BigSerg]

Embattled 'emeritus' king Juan Carlos to leave the country

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53642283

Juan Carlos, 82, made the announcement in a letter to his son, Felipe, to whom he handed power six years ago.

He said he would be available if prosecutors needed to interview him.

In June, Spain's Supreme Court opened an investigation into the alleged involvement of Juan Carlos in a high-speed rail contract in Saudi Arabia.

It was not immediately clear when the former monarch would leave Spain and where he would reside.

It is a humiliating exit for a king who had seemed set to go down in history as the leader who skilfully guided Spain from dictatorship to democracy after the death of General Franco in 1975, BBC Europe correspondent Nick Beake says.

According to Portuguese media, he's going to exile in Cascais in the house the royal family owns there. Don't know if it is the same as his childhood one.

Juan Carlos departed on Sunday, according to Spanish media, but his destination is unknown. His father Juan de Borbón was exiled in Portugal during the Franco regime. The exiled prince and the Caudillo arranged that Juan Carlos would get his education in Spain and the future king made his first visit to the country in 1948. Maybe he will return to Portugal, it'd be interesting...

I'd be happy if Juan Carlos pays taxes for the illegal money as a service to the country, but that is not going to happen. The chances that Juan Carlos ends his days behind the bars are virtually nonexistent. He has a legal shield and the judiciary in Spain is mostly monarchist and leans to the right.

At this point I'd say the PSOE support is key for the monarchy, as the institution could hardly resist if it's only backed by the rightwing parties. However, I suspect that PSOE voters are not very monarchist nowadays

Lol no https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vanitatis.elconfidencial.com/amp/casas-reales/2019-06-20/monarquia-encuesta-vanitatis-votantes-psoe-aprueban-rey_2077678/

[Velasco]

Lol no https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vanitatis.elconfidencial.com/amp/casas-reales/2019-06-20/monarquia-encuesta-vanitatis-votantes-psoe-aprueban-rey_2077678/

Great news! I see that poll is one year old and there's another released by Publico this year saying republicans win by a landslide. The question is who do you trust

https://www.publico.es/politica/sondeo-espanoles-prefieren-republica-monarquia-mayoria-absoluta.html

As far as I know, the most recent polls on the monarchy have been conducted by Invymark (La Sexta) and Sociometrica (El Español). Both say the king's approval rates are at the lowest point in recent times.

On July 14 this year (La Bastille day*), it was released an Invymark poll asking some questions related to the monarchy. On the question "how do you feel to this day?" results were the following: 31.2% monarchist, 39% republican and 29.3% neither

https://electomania.es/invymark14jul20/

There are two recent Sociometrica polls. The poll released by El Español in July said that republicans were winning by a narrow margin (49.3% to 48.9%). In the following month the same pollster assures the support for the monarchy skyrocketed due to the departure of the former king (40.8% republic, 54.9% monarchy), which is honestly hard to believe.

https://www.elespanol.com/espana/politica/20200806/salida-espana-juan-carlos-provoca-vuelco-monarquia/510700195_0.html

There are polls for internal consumption commissioned by the royal household, while the CIS raises criticism because the public institute ceased to ask about the monarchy with the access to the throne of Felipe VI.

The lack of reliable polls is another sign of the opacity surrounding the monarchy, in my opinion. I tend to think (as the invymark result suggests) that the monarchsit feeling is increasingly weaker, but republicans are not strong enough and there's a big pocket of undecided and indifferent

* The anniversary of the Spanish Second Republic is on April 14

[Former President tack50]

Worth noting that while they are not really all that reliable, Electomanía's "surveys" found the exact opposite result, with Republicans winning 55-39 on a hypothetical referendum.

https://electomania.es/epmonarquia2a20/

Though I personally find Electomanía's "surveys" quite a bit sensationalistic and clickbaity.

On the flip side, there is this poll from right wing (and pro-monarchy) La Razón, which found a similar result to that of El Español (Monarchy wins 56-37, with young people being Republicans and old people being monarchists)

https://www.larazon.es/espana/20200726/54ezvv4marbgxdheublbbtledm.html

Honestly, the monarchy is just a divisive issue and Spain is divided almost exactly 50-50. Maybe there is a small advantage for monarchists, but even 40% in opposition to the monarchy is an awful data point, especially compared to other monarchies in Europe.

[Velasco]

El País reports today the decision to move Juan Carlos out of the country, "at this point in time", was made by king Felipe. The main motivation was not pressure from the government, but the collapse in prestige of the monarchy shown by the polls for internal consumption commissioned by the royal household. Pedro Sanchez and some ministers advised the king to distance from his father (Sanchez said that recent revelations were "disturbing"), but the PM would have preferred the 'emeritus king' to remain in the country

https://elpais.com/espana/2020-08-08/la-decision-de-juan-carlos-i.html

In the unlikely eventuality of a referendum, I gather at this moment king Felipe would have a good chance to lose

[Mike88]

What is El Mundo drinking?

'Operation Cascais': a mansion for Juan Carlos

The Portuguese plans of King Emeritus and the three key people who prepare him for his final landing after the summer: an old friend, a woman and the President of the Republic.

This story is a bit ludicrous. The Brito e Cunha branch of the Espirito Santo family helping the King I can believe, now Lili Caneças? Really? And Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa meddling in all of this? That would likely be a violation of the role of the President.

Anyway, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa has already said this report is madness and any sensible and intelligent person would realize he's the last person in Portugal to intervene in this situation.

[Former President tack50]

What is El Mundo drinking?

'Operation Cascais': a mansion for Juan Carlos

The Portuguese plans of King Emeritus and the three key people who prepare him for his final landing after the summer: an old friend, a woman and the President of the Republic.

This story is a bit ludicrous. The Brito e Cunha branch of the Espirito Santo family helping the King I can believe, now Lili Caneças? Really? And Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa meddling in all of this? That would likely be a violation of the role of the President.

Anyway, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa has already said this report is madness and any sensible and intelligent person would realize he's the last person in Portugal to intervene in this situation.

To be honest despite being the neighbouring country I do not think the Spanish press pays much attention to Portugal (if at all). So no wonder the story is commpletely false

[Velasco]

Anyway, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa has already said this report is madness and any sensible and intelligent person would realize he's the last person in Portugal to intervene in this situation.

Indeed. I know little about the constitutional attributions of the presidency, but it makes no sense that Rebelo de Sousa intervenes. I would have felt embarrassed reading that news


According to first rumours, Juan Carlos went from Porto to the Dominican Republic. Now there's a picture of the emeritus king allegedly taken at his arrival to Abu Dhabi airport on past Monday. I've read in La Vanguardia yesterday that his stay in the Persian Gulf Emirates is provisional and he might be considering New Zealand, a covid-free paradise for sailors, but the journalist is careful enough to say that's only a speculation. Regarding Juan Carlos' passion for sailing, it seems well established that he moved from La Zarzuela (the royal residence near Madrid) to Sanxenxo (a coastal town in Galicia) on Sunday. Juan Carlos has a 'court' of loyal friends there, a reduced circle including a local businessman and members of the Sanxenxo yacht club. People in that town is apparently convinced that Juan Carlos will be back in September to participate in the sailing regattas. Juan Carlos would have said to his close friends the departure is provisional and he "will be back soon", but possibly that's the kind of statements you can expect from someone who is assimilating his new condition. From what I'm gathering, I think it's not correct to say the emeritus king has fled the country escaping justice. I believe, concurring with the last article I linked from El País, that Juan Carlos has been forced to leave the country against his wishes. But Juan Carlos is not going to be obedient in 'exile' and he will go wherever he pleases, even if his movements are embarrassing for the government or the royal household. Expect all kinds of incredible stories

[Mike88]

Anyway, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa has already said this report is madness and any sensible and intelligent person would realize he's the last person in Portugal to intervene in this situation.

Indeed. I know little about the constitutional attributions of the presidency, but it makes no sense that Rebelo de Sousa intervenes. I would have felt embarrassed reading that news


According to first rumours, Juan Carlos went from Porto to the Dominican Republic. Now there's a picture of the emeritus king allegedly taken at his arrival to Abu Dhabi airport on past Monday. I've read in La Vanguardia yesterday that his stay in the Persian Gulf Emirates is provisional and he might be considering New Zealand, a covid-free paradise for sailors, but the journalist is careful enough to say that's only a speculation. Regarding Juan Carlos' passion for sailing, it seems well established that he moved from La Zarzuela (the royal residence near Madrid) to Sanxenxo (a coastal town in Galicia) on Sunday. Juan Carlos has a 'court' of loyal friends there, a reduced circle including a local businessman and members of the Sanxenxo yacht club. People in that town is apparently convinced that Juan Carlos will be back in September to participate in the sailing regattas. Juan Carlos would have said to his close friends the departure is provisional and he "will be back soon", but possibly that's the kind of statements you can expect from someone who is assimilating his new condition. From what I'm gathering, I think it's not correct to say the emeritus king has fled the country escaping justice. I believe, concurring with the last article I linked from El País, that Juan Carlos has been forced to leave the country against his wishes. But Juan Carlos is not going to be obedient in 'exile' and he will go wherever he pleases, even if his movements are embarrassing for the government or the royal household. Expect all kinds of incredible stories

The President has no executive powers and the "big powers" he/she has is vetoing laws, which can be surpassed by Parliament at the 3rd consecutive veto, nominate/dismiss the PM and "the atomic bomb" of dissolving Parliament by his own decision, which is rarely used, and only once happened. Even foreign trips of the President need to be approved by Parliament or he cannot leave the country.

The stories about are becoming very silly and this whole secrecy is becoming stupid. There's no reason, right now, for not announcing where he is and Juan Carlos could easily give a written, or even a in person, statement describing his reasons to do this and that he will return to Spain several times in the future. Prolonging isn't going to help.