Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021
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  Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021  (Read 195138 times)
Former President tack50
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« Reply #1525 on: June 28, 2020, 06:19:46 AM »

As I always try to do, here are the campaign posters and slogans from all main candidates. I don't know how widespread they are (because Coronavirus) but there are still certainly some out there. Though this time it was a lot harder for me to find them:

Using spoiler tags for the images for the first time ever as well, in order not to obstruct the page much (plus I think the PP one breaks the forum)

Galicia

PP: Galicia, Galicia, Galicia
Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.



PSOE: The time for a change / Make Galicia
Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.



BNG: A New Galicia
Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.



Galicia in Common (UP+allies): The time is now / Building the future
Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.



Vox: Galicia is Green
Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.



Cs: A lot to win
Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.



Analysing the posters here are some things:

> Feijoo, as is traditional for him, tries to hide the PP logo and make it as small as realistically possible. He already has done this in his previous elections
> PSOE meanwhile seems to be trying to nationalize the campaign, using marketing materials very similar to those used by Sánchez in 2019
>Vox's slogan is downright bizarre. It almost looks like they are an ecologist party Tongue
> Cs is even weirder. For a party that has a reputation for being pro-centralism and what not, it is very weird to see them use the Galician flag as a background, as well as to make their marketing materials in Galician and not Spanish (like Vox did). I suppose this ties nicely into their "turn to the centre" though
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1526 on: June 28, 2020, 06:34:55 AM »

And here are the ones for the other election campaign:

Basque Country

PNV: Euskadi Stand Up / We will come out
Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.



Bildu: Ready to do
Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.



UP: We can govern
Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.



PSE-EE: Solucions
Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.


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Velasco
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« Reply #1527 on: June 28, 2020, 02:53:06 PM »
« Edited: June 28, 2020, 03:18:23 PM by Velasco »

Feijóo is clearly the best campaigner. He is going to win because he's Galicia. Vox is not Equo, but polls suggest it will perform nearly as bad as the true greens. Didn't you find a poster of Carlos Iturgaiz?
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1528 on: June 28, 2020, 04:02:19 PM »

Feijóo is clearly the best campaigner. He is going to win because he's Galicia. Vox is not Equo, but polls suggest it will perform nearly as bad as the true greens. Didn't you find a poster of Carlos Iturgaiz?

Oh yeah I did but I forgot to post it lol

Here it is

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbZBmRbXgAEFlV1?format=jpg&name=large

Slogan: A plan for the future

Here is also the Vox poster for the Basque Country

https://static3.diariovasco.com/www/multimedia/202006/19/media/cortadas/56186677--624x426.jpg

Slogan: Speak for yourself
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Skye
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« Reply #1529 on: June 28, 2020, 05:32:53 PM »

I'm still accustomed with campaigns where the candidate is the main selling point, so I don't find the Feijóo poster that weird.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1530 on: June 28, 2020, 07:31:33 PM »
« Edited: June 29, 2020, 05:17:19 AM by Velasco »

I'm still accustomed with campaigns where the candidate is the main selling point, so I don't find the Feijóo poster that weird.

Nobody said it's weird. Campaigns focused on the personality of the candidate are not uncommon in Spain. Manuel Fraga identified himself with Galicia before Feijóo and the slogan "Galicia, Galicia, Galicia" is not very different drom the Susana Díaz slogan in the 2018 campaign ("+Andalucía"). Anyway the size of the PP logo in the Feijóo poster is strikingly small.

I take advantage to post one of my favourite campaign slogans: "Zapatero Presidente". He promised "solutions now" 12 years before the PSE candidate Idoia Mendia

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BigSerg
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« Reply #1531 on: June 28, 2020, 08:12:03 PM »

I really want Vox to be the key to government. Feijoo is an arrogant nationalist who needs humility.
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Skye
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« Reply #1532 on: June 29, 2020, 04:58:09 AM »

I really want Vox to be the key to government. Feijoo is an arrogant nationalist who needs humility.

The VOX people are anything but humble lol.
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« Reply #1533 on: June 29, 2020, 10:38:04 AM »

I really want Vox to be the key to government. Feijoo is an arrogant nationalist who needs humility.

The VOX people are anything but humble lol.
And far more nationalistic than PP
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Velasco
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« Reply #1534 on: June 29, 2020, 03:36:32 PM »
« Edited: June 30, 2020, 12:47:02 AM by Velasco »

I really want Vox to be the key to government. Feijoo is an arrogant nationalist who needs humility.

The VOX people are anything but humble lol.
And far more nationalistic than PP

Vox is indeed nationalistic, but Spanish rightwingers never call themselves "nationalists". Such people deem themselves "patriots" and leave the word "nationalist" to Catalans, Basques or Galicians (the "peripheral nationalisms")

There's a distinctive trait of the Galician PP, which has incorporated centre-right regionalist elements. The latter are mostly rural and Galician speaking (they were called boinas or "berets") opposed to urban and Castilian speaking elements (called birretes, which is a word for a square academic cap). The division between boinas and birretes was a characteristic of the Galician PP in past decades. Feijóo is a representative of the urban elites traditionally opposed to rural caciques like the Baltar brothers in Ourense province. Currently Feijoo has an absolute control of the Galician PP and those factions are integrated. Feijóo speaks in Galician and adopts a discourse that is partially regionalist, appealing to the rural and aged PP base. It's plausible that Feijóo can be seen as a Galician nationalist by a Vox supporter, but obviously he has little or nothing in common with the BNG
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Velasco
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« Reply #1535 on: June 30, 2020, 12:45:00 AM »
« Edited: June 30, 2020, 11:14:16 PM by Velasco »

According to Sondaxe Feijóo is catching nearly all the voters right of the centre, while the BNG is coming increasingly closer to the PSOE (Click to enlarge. Source: Electograph)




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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1536 on: June 30, 2020, 05:27:56 AM »

Wow. While still rather unlikely, at this point it is not inconcievable that BNG actually beats PSOE for 2nd in Galicia. That would certainly be a huge upset and a big comeback for a party that many people considered dead back in 2016 (with almost all their voters moving to UP)
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Velasco
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« Reply #1537 on: July 03, 2020, 05:34:36 PM »
« Edited: July 04, 2020, 01:52:13 AM by Velasco »

It is rumoured that Carles Puigdemont and Quim Torra are considering to call snap elections in Catalonia (either September 27 or October 4)

Currently there is a conflict within JxCAT between Puigdemont loyalists and the current leadership of the PDeCAT (the heir of CDC), inscribed in a general reconfiguration of the Catalan centre-right nationalism. PDeCAT chairman David Bonvehí opposes to dissolve the party into JxCAT and is supported by a majority in the party's executive body and some important mayors. Puigdemont (a PDeCAT member himself) is backed by most cabinet members, deputies, mayors and other elected officials, as well by Torra and other independents, the imprisoned leaders and the Jordi Sánchez's Crida Nacional. According to recent news, Puigdemont is planning to create a new party bypassing the PDeCAT leadership. PDeCAT and Crida members would be invited to join the new Puigdemont artifact on an individual basis. The date for the inaugural convention is July 25, one day before a previously scheduled meeting of the PDeCAT's executive body. The main problem for Puigdemont is that the PDeCAT holds the rights of the JxCAT trademark, as well the public funds and the free advertising space in public broadcasters.

 The climate of political tension has cooled down in the last weeks, in coincidence with the summer season and the quiet Basque and Galician campaigns. Analysts say tension will increase again by autumn. It's worth noting there's something 'theatrical' and 'baroque' behind the harsh and disgusting rhetoric displayed in Congress ("constitutional dictatorship", "illegitimate government", etcetera)

Meanwhile government, unions and business leaders sign a deal to "reactivate Spain"

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2020-07-03/government-unions-and-business-leaders-sign-deal-to-reactivate-spanish-economy.html

Quote
The Spanish government, business leaders and unions met today in La Moncloa prime ministerial palace to sign a deal to reactivate the economy and create employment in the wake of the coronavirus crisis, which has left more than 28,000 official victims in Spain and has devastated the economy.

The signing ceremony, led by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, took place in the gardens of La Moncloa after an extraordinary Cabinet meeting, at which ministers approved a number of economic measures, including financing the digital transformation of firms and assistance for the country’s ailing tourism sector.

GESOP poll for El Periódico (General elections. Source: Electograph)



Invymark poll: PSOE 27.8%, PP 21%, Vox 14.1%, UP 12.8%, Cs 8.7%
DYM poll: PSOE 26%, PP 22.4%, Vox 15.1%, UP 11.3%, Cs 8.3%

Leaving aside the DYM poll (outlier or right-wing bias, imo), there is a divergence in the Cs estimation. There are no great differences between the left and the right (presumably MP adds between 1% and 2% ti the left block)


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Velasco
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« Reply #1538 on: July 04, 2020, 02:15:38 AM »

The Postal Service admits 125,255 applications to vote by mail in the Basque Country elections, which represents 7% of the electoral roll and a 140% increase with regard previous elections. 98.5% of the applications were submitted at post offices and only 1.5% were submitted telematically (option available due to the Covid-19)

In Galiicia 76,907 applications have been admitted (67975 at post offices, 8932 telematically) , which is a historic high. The deadline for applications was July 2
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Velasco
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« Reply #1539 on: July 05, 2020, 12:16:10 AM »

Galicia: 40 dB poll for El País (click to eenlarge)


Basque Country: GAD3 poll for ABC (click to enlarge)




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Velasco
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« Reply #1540 on: July 06, 2020, 12:46:14 AM »
« Edited: July 06, 2020, 12:51:04 AM by Velasco »

The rise of coronavirus cases has provoked the confinement of about 280k people this weekend. On Saturday, the Catalan government decreed lockdown in the region around the city of Lleida (Segrià comarca, a division roughly equivalent to a county in the US with 210k residents)

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-07-04/catalan-government-confines-residents-of-segria-in-lleida-due-to-rising-coronavirus-cases.html

Quote
The Catalan regional government on Saturday confined residents of the comarca of Segrià, in Lleida, given the rising number of coronavirus cases that have been detected there. The affected area is in the south of the province, on the border with neighboring Huesca and Zaragoza provinces, and contains 38 municipalities, including the city of Lleida.

The comarca – a traditional administrative division in parts of Spain – holds a population of slightly more than 200,000 inhabitants, and occupies 1,400 square (kilo)meters of land.

Catalan regional premier Quim Torra announced the measure at midday after a meeting with the Catalan Civil Protection Territorial Plan (Procicat), as well as deputy premier Pere Aragonès and other government ministers.

The confinement of Segrià began at 12pm on Saturday, and until 4pm any non-residents in the area were permitted to leave, while residents were allowed to enter. From that deadline onward, no one has been able to enter or leave, with the exception of those who need to for work. The restrictions also affect transport, trade and business activities (...)

On the following day, the Galician government decreed a lockdown in the coastal region of Lugo province (A Mariña comarca) that will last five days (until Friday, two days before regional elections) and affects 70k people. The lockdown raises concern on the voting conditions in that area (A Mariña has 56k enrolled voters, which is 20% of Lugo province) and its effect in the overall turnout. Polls have been suggesting that Feijóo will easily win over the demoralized opposition. The team of the Galician premier was expecting a slight turnout decrease (from 64% to 59%). However, in case turnout plummets across Galicia due to coronavirus panic, Feijóo's majority could be at stake. PP has a heavy reliance upon aged voters, the most vulnerable to the pandemic. The electoral consequences of a turnout below 50% could be rather unpredictable. A new suspension of the elections is out if question, unless there is a rise of coronavirus cases in the rest of Galicia. In case of aggravation, there is the possibility to postpone elections in A Mariña.



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« Reply #1541 on: July 06, 2020, 04:52:36 AM »

So I found the Community of Madrid has shapefiles for its region, so now that I barely know how to make maps using QGIS I decided to try my hand around other Madrid maps. This is the November 2019 General election in the Madrid Metropolitan Area. I'm using a key you should all be familiar with. Click on the spoiler to reveal the map:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.



Anyway, the working class red belt is on full display here, while the wealthier northwestern suburbs show just how much they are on board with the Right, considering all of them were over 60% and 70% pro-Right, while none of the red belt municipalities went above 60% for the Left.

Overall, 3 million votes were cast and these were the results:

PP: 25.3%
VOX: 17.3%
C's: 9.1%

Overall Right: 51.7%

PSOE: 27.3%
Unidas Podemos: 13.1%
Más País: 5.8%

Overall Left: 46.2%

All in all, the Metro area voted slightly a bit to the left of the overall Community of Madrid (52.3R-45.5L)

I wish I could have divided the Madrid municipality into districts to further show the vote disparity in the South, but I'm afraid I'm not that skilled yet.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1542 on: July 06, 2020, 06:34:11 AM »
« Edited: July 06, 2020, 06:37:28 AM by Velasco »

I have this old map of the 2003 Madrid regional elections (the infamous Tamayazo). The municipal districts are displayed within the Madrid mega municipality and the north-south divide can be seen easily. The municipality won by IU is Rivas-Vaciamadrid, the Gaul Village of the alternative left SE of the capital (it's different from nearby leftwing strongholds like Leganés or Getafe)



I have maps in my gallery of old Basque, Galician and other regional elections in my gallery, too
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Skye
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« Reply #1543 on: July 06, 2020, 06:44:12 AM »

I have this old map of the 2003 Madrid regional elections (the infamous Tamayazo). The municipal districts are displayed within the Madrid mega municipality and the north-south divide can be seen easily. The municipality won by IU is Rivas-Vaciamadrid, the Gaul Village of the alternative left SE of the capital (it's different from nearby leftwing strongholds like Leganés or Getafe)



I have maps in my gallery of old Basque, Galician and other regional elections in my gallery, too

This map is useful. Unfortunately, one shapefile I found also divided some of the surrounding municipalities into districts as well, and good luck mapping those.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1544 on: July 06, 2020, 08:10:20 AM »

Here, I'll help you display the Madrid Breakdown only, while leaving the municipal suburbs intact.

You should have both Layers loaded into QGIS: the one for municipalities and the one for districts. Municipalities is on top of districts.

For both of these go to Settings in the Layer Properties window. Go to Query Builder in the bottom right.

For the Municipal one you want to add: NOT "x" = 'y'

For the district one you want to add: "z" = 'a'

x and z are the field names which should be in the upper left box.

y and a are values in those fields that distinguish everything. Since shapefiles are constructed by govt  or watchdog officials, they often contain distinguishing variables to show where a polygon belongs in the official administration tiers. y in this scenario is going to Madrid, or something similar that uniquely identifies the Madrid city and only removes that from the view. The district wants 'a' to be an  identifier that all the madrid districts have but no others. Most likely this would just be a column that signifies which locality the districts are part of, and you just stick Madrid in for 'a.'

Now join or add the election data to the district shapefile.

If z and a do not exist, you create a new column to act as z and a. Highlight all the districts outside in Madrid using the Select features tool in the upper bar. Then go to the attribute table, and go to field calculator. Create a new field, and be sure to type something like 'Madrid' into the expression box before creating said field. Now repeat the above steps using this new column.
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Skye
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« Reply #1545 on: July 06, 2020, 09:27:24 AM »

Here, I'll help you display the Madrid Breakdown only, while leaving the municipal suburbs intact.

You should have both Layers loaded into QGIS: the one for municipalities and the one for districts. Municipalities is on top of districts.

For both of these go to Settings in the Layer Properties window. Go to Query Builder in the bottom right.

For the Municipal one you want to add: NOT "x" = 'y'

For the district one you want to add: "z" = 'a'

x and z are the field names which should be in the upper left box.

y and a are values in those fields that distinguish everything. Since shapefiles are constructed by govt  or watchdog officials, they often contain distinguishing variables to show where a polygon belongs in the official administration tiers. y in this scenario is going to Madrid, or something similar that uniquely identifies the Madrid city and only removes that from the view. The district wants 'a' to be an  identifier that all the madrid districts have but no others. Most likely this would just be a column that signifies which locality the districts are part of, and you just stick Madrid in for 'a.'

Now join or add the election data to the district shapefile.

If z and a do not exist, you create a new column to act as z and a. Highlight all the districts outside in Madrid using the Select features tool in the upper bar. Then go to the attribute table, and go to field calculator. Create a new field, and be sure to type something like 'Madrid' into the expression box before creating said field. Now repeat the above steps using this new column.



Thank you very much Oryx. This map makes the disparity clearer.
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Keep Calm and ...
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« Reply #1546 on: July 12, 2020, 07:02:55 AM »

Turnout at 12:00 CEST

Basque Country
2020: 14.1% (-1.3)
2016: 15.4%

Galicia
2020: 19.3% (+4.3)
2016: 15.0%



https://www.euskadielecciones.eus/participacion
https://resultados2020.xunta.gal/avances/0/galicia
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1547 on: July 12, 2020, 07:08:12 AM »

Surprising to see turnout up in Galicia. I suppose we might be in for a surprise there.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1548 on: July 12, 2020, 10:30:07 AM »

Turnout at 5pm in Galicia is basically the same as in 2016:

2020 - 42.95% (+0.46)
2016 - 42.49%

Change by province:

A Coruña: +0.82%
Lugo: -0.93%
Ourense: -1.84%
Pontevedra: +1.30%
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Mike88
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« Reply #1549 on: July 12, 2020, 11:10:54 AM »

Turnout at 5pm in the Basque Country colapses compared with 2016:

2020 - 36.02% (-8.36)
2016 - 44.38%

Change by province:

Araba/Álava: -9.27%
Bizkaia: -8.46%
Gipuzkoa: -7.79%
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