Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Velasco]

Congress backed PM's request for a new extension of the state of alarm, amidst heavy attacks from rightwing opposition

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2020-04-10/congress-backs-pms-request-to-extend-confinement-measures-in-spain-until-april-26-with-a-further-15-days-likely.html

 

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez secured approval from the Congress of Deputies on Thursday for his decision to extend the state of alarm in Spain and current confinement measures until April 26. The move, which will keep residents of Spain mostly locked down in their homes for an additional two weeks from the previous deadline of April 12, is aimed at curbing the spread of the coronavirus.



During an acrimonious debate in the lower house of parliament over his government’s management of the crisis, Sánchez told Congress he is “convinced” that before the new deadline ends, he will have to ask the legislature “for another extension of 15 days, because by then we will not have put an end to the pandemic.” This would push the end of the state of alarm to May 10. It is not yet known, however, what the exact confinement conditions would be under this extension. The Spanish government has hinted that it is considering a very gradual deescalation of the measures (...)
 

[Skye]

It's map time again! I know this it's late, and the map is a bit messy, but screw it. Here's a neighborhood level map of the 2019 Madrid City Council election, by ideological blocs.

[Former President tack50]

Ok, so for some reason today I decided to look up the distribution of votes by age and gender, to see how they compare and what not.

I actually found an interesting report on that by El Español, so no need to actually calculate myself. And so, here it is:



This basically just confirms everything I have said up to this point but it is still a really fun watch.

So by gender, PSOE does much better among women than men, while Vox and UP do much better among men than women. Not much difference for Cs or PP.

As for age, PSOE and PP do better among old people while UP does better among young people. Weird correlations for Cs and Vox, though interestingly Vox does worst among the old.

Personally, I think we should only allow women boomers to vote and just disenfranchise everyone else

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why does Vox do better among men, while PP and Cs have no major gender gap at all? I assume it's a side-effect of the age gap?

[Former President tack50]

Why does Vox do better among men, while PP and Cs have no major gender gap at all? I assume it's a side-effect of the age gap?

Maybe, though also I suppose Cs and PP are seen as "moderate" while Vox very obviously isn't. I think back before the Vox rise they both had a male electorate (though nowhere near as much as Vox)

In my view women do not just lean to the left; but rather they tend to lean towards more moderate parties, while men tend to vote more for the extremes.

[Skye]

Why does Vox do better among men, while PP and Cs have no major gender gap at all? I assume it's a side-effect of the age gap?

If you know Spanish, this article details the profile of an average Vox voter: http://agendapublica.elpais.com/el-perfil-del-votante-de-vox/

Also, isn't the alt-right in America composed mainly by younger males? Vox is soooort of like that.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why does Vox do better among men, while PP and Cs have no major gender gap at all? I assume it's a side-effect of the age gap?

If you know Spanish, this article details the profile of an average Vox voter: http://agendapublica.elpais.com/el-perfil-del-votante-de-vox/

Also, isn't the alt-right in America composed mainly by younger males? Vox is soooort of like that.

That's a decent comparison.
Also, good find! It was imformative. Muchos gracias.

[CumbrianLefty]

Vox does worst amongst old people - presumably because they actually remember the Franco era?

[Intell]

Vox does worst amongst old people - presumably because they actually remember the Franco era?

Don't radical right parties do worst amongst the old throughout Western Europe? It's generally the case that the very young (18-24) and the old (65+) have lowest vote share for radical right parties.

The gender divide being especially large amongst the youth is interesting but I think is also a phenomenon you see throughout the western  world?

[Oryxslayer]

Vox does worst amongst old people - presumably because they actually remember the Franco era?

Don't radical right parties do worst amongst the old throughout Western Europe? It's generally the case that the very young (18-24) and the old (65+) have lowest vote share for radical right parties.

The gender divide being especially large amongst the youth is interesting but I think is also a phenomenon you see throughout the western  world?

Yes, this is because the very young activists prefer Linke/Podemos style parties, and the very old are loyal to the declining Center-Right/Social-Left dichotomous machines of yesteryear.

[Former President tack50]

Vox does worst amongst old people - presumably because they actually remember the Franco era?

Maybe but I do not think this is the entire truth as plenty of old people would have a positive opinion of the Franco era.

I think it is just that older people have a sort of loyalty to the old 2 party machines that young people do not have. Oryxslayer is correct in this.

The gender divide being especially large amongst the youth is interesting but I think is also a phenomenon you see throughout the western  world?

Yeah the gender divide being especially large among the youth is interesting. And indeed it seems a common phenomenon throughout the western world.

However I do not think this fully applies in Spain? For this comparison in Spain, we get the following results:

Young men: 36-36 tie
Young women: 40-20 Left
Gap of 20 points

Old men: 47-39 right
Old women: 52-41 left
Gap of 19 points

So the difference does not seem all that significant to me? (it does mean that old people are basically even while young people lean to the left but that is not all that surprising tbh)

Granted the methodology is not great and I should probably be extrapolating all these values to 100% (it is kind of hard when you do not have data for secessionists and/or abstentions)

[CumbrianLefty]

Vox does worst amongst old people - presumably because they actually remember the Franco era?

Maybe but I do not think this is the entire truth as plenty of old people would have a positive opinion of the Franco era.

Actually, roughly what proportion of Spaniards *are* positive about Franco?

Its a sensitive topic I know, but surely some polling has been done on it down the years.

[Former President tack50]

Vox does worst amongst old people - presumably because they actually remember the Franco era?

Maybe but I do not think this is the entire truth as plenty of old people would have a positive opinion of the Franco era.

Actually, roughly what proportion of Spaniards *are* positive about Franco?

Its a sensitive topic I know, but surely some polling has been done on it down the years.

Actually we have not had a proper poll directly asking about the Franco dictatorship since 2008.

Doing a trip down memory lane, polls asking directly on Franco's "approval rating" in 2005 found that 51% of Spaniards had a negative opinion of him. And as you would expect, his approval rating was better among old people and low among the young.

https://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/2005/11/19/espana/1132371627.html

The 2008 poll, with different methodology, found that a whopping 58% of Spaniards agreed with the sentence "Francoism had boths its positives and its negatives". 42% of Spaniards were against prosecuting crimes done by the dictatorship

https://www.abc.es/espana/abci-no-pregunta-sobre-franco-desde-hace-diez-anos-201808220158_noticia.html

Finally we saw a tiny bit of polling in 2018 when Franco was removed from his tomb. 57% of Spaniards were in favour and 26% against; with the partisan breakdown you would expect. More interestingly 13% of Spaniards disagreed that Franco was a dictator.

https://www.lasexta.com/noticias/nacional/barometro-lasexta-un-374-de-votantes-del-pp-y-un-585-de-los-de-vox-creen-que-franco-no-fue-un-dictador_201910245db1600c0cf2d4f059b98a13.html

In general it seems around 25% of Spaniards should have a relatively positve image of Franco, with probably a couple more that have a "neutral" opinion on him.

[Velasco]

Basque Country lehendakari (premier) Iñigo Urkullu is considering to call elections in July, avoiding a possible pandemic resurgence next autumn (term expires in September). Urkullu will talk with the other parties next week. Galicia premier Alberto Núñez Feijóo haven't said anything, but he could follow Urkullu eventually. A new extension of the State of Emergency begins within two days with a somewhat relaxed lockdown. A PNV-PSOE coalition governs in the Basque Country, while PP governs Galicia with a majority

[Former President tack50]

We finally have a bit of polling and it seems that the government is dropping in approval, with PSOE and UP going down from 2019. PP also seems to be going up.

Here is an example, though other polls are finding similar results:

NC Report for La Razón



Right: 154 seats; 44.8%
Left: 147 seats; 39.3%

This poll, while not great news for the left also shows why it will be hard for the right to actually win. Basically, with a popular vote gap of more than 5 points (albeit probably more like 3.5 points once you account for whatever is left of Mas País) the right is still more than 20 seats away from a majority.

Under an scenario like this, Sánchez would need an explicit yes vote from ERC and Bildu, which is tough but doable I suppose. Meanwhile there would be no way for a hypothetical PM Casado; and there would still be none until he was at at the very least 172 seats or something like that.

[CumbrianLefty]

So not that much of a "virus rally" for the Spanish government, like the US but unlike many others.

[Former President tack50]

So not that much of a "virus rally" for the Spanish government, like the US but unlike many others.

Indeed, if anything there is a slight "reverse virus rally" where the government is losing votes. Then again I cannot think of any event in modern Spanish history that actually was followed by a "rally with the flag" effect.

The most famous example of the Madrid bombings infamously resulted in the incumbent party losing but that is also because of Aznar's massive mistake with the handling of the attacks, blaming ETA and not Al Qaeda despite the evidence to the contrary.

[CumbrianLefty]

So not that much of a "virus rally" for the Spanish government, like the US but unlike many others.

Indeed, if anything there is a slight "reverse virus rally" where the government is losing votes. Then again I cannot think of any event in modern Spanish history that actually was followed by a "rally with the flag" effect.

The most famous example of the Madrid bombings infamously resulted in the incumbent party losing but that is also because of Aznar's massive mistake with the handling of the attacks, blaming ETA and not Al Qaeda despite the evidence to the contrary.

Yes, you do wonder if things *might* have been different had he been honest then.

[Former President tack50]

So not that much of a "virus rally" for the Spanish government, like the US but unlike many others.

Indeed, if anything there is a slight "reverse virus rally" where the government is losing votes. Then again I cannot think of any event in modern Spanish history that actually was followed by a "rally with the flag" effect.

The most famous example of the Madrid bombings infamously resulted in the incumbent party losing but that is also because of Aznar's massive mistake with the handling of the attacks, blaming ETA and not Al Qaeda despite the evidence to the contrary.

Yes, you do wonder if things *might* have been different had he been honest then.

My personal theory is that polls were wrong in 2004 and not just because of the terrorist attacks. There were plenty of people angry at the Irak war, and both the 2003 local elections as well as the 2004 EU elections (only a couple months after the general elections) resulted in PSOE victories.

Now, we will obviously never know but I personally think that had the attacks not happened, probably ends up in a PP victory, but it would be a razor thin one of like 1 point (not unlike 1996); certainly losing its overall majority.

Of course this is all especulation. But "no terrorist attacks in 2004" is certainly one of the more interesting Alternate History scenarios for modern Spain, and I have had a couple conversations on it in fact.

There are certainly others I can think of (Aznar killed in 1995; González somehow winning in 1996; or for more recent ones, UP actually beating PSOE and becoming the main party of the Spanish left); but 2004 is certainly one of the more interesting elections for alternate history.

[Former President tack50]

Apparently there is a Spanish version of the Canada/Israel meme, so enjoy I suppose!



I am personally at the quad point between socialist, leftist cuñado, republican and europist

[Skye]

Apparently there is a Spanish version of the Canada/Israel meme, so enjoy I suppose!



I am personally at the quad point between socialist, leftist cuñado, republican and europist

Why are the Basque Nationalists on the far right?

[Former President tack50]

Apparently there is a Spanish version of the Canada/Israel meme, so enjoy I suppose!

I am personally at the quad point between socialist, leftist cuñado, republican and europist

Why are the Basque Nationalists on the far right?

I have absolutely no idea tbh. I suppose that "because they care only about money" or something like that lol

Either way I did not make this.

[Velasco]

The government negotiated in extremis the support of Cs and PNV for a new extension of the State of Alarm. Basque nationalists gave their support once the government agreed to consult with regional governments de-escalation measures in the different territories, instead of the central command's diktat (minister of Health). The support of Arrimadas caused the Cs membership resignation of former Congress spokesman Juan Carlos Girauta (good riddance!). PP will abstain, despite Casado threatened to oppose creating a sanitary and economic chaos (finally averted by the support of Cs and PNV). ERC withdraws support and votes against with the other Catalan separatists and Vox. Remarkably En Comu Podem spokesman Jaume Asens thanked Cs for its 'responsibility', despite Asens and Cs leader Inés Arrimadas are politically on opposing sides.

The coalition government is not riding high, but don't forget to mention that La Razón and NC Report are strongly biased towards the PP. Anyway Casado is smelling the blood, so he is being extremely aggresive. He has apparently good polling (growing at the Vox expense) and there are political and economic circles in Madrid wishing to topple the government since Day One. My opinion is that Casado is being miserable, because he is going far beyond the logical criticism of government's mistakes. But Vox is going the furthest reaching grotesque extremes, so maybe some rightwingers are coming back to the PP ashamed by the foolish nonsrnse (even if you hate leftists, claiming the government is killing old people is too much). Madrid premier Isabel Diaz Ayuso is also worthy of mention, not only because of the management of retirement homes in her region (thousands of dead). Ayuso thinks that it's OK that poor children eat pizza... I miss a certain patriotism in these politicians and envy Portugal for its responsible opposition. At least Arrimadas is apparently moving to the centre. Being constructive and reasonable does not equate o unconditional support. Also, the important game is in the negotiations within the EU and I don't see Casado defending the nation's interest

EDIT  Metroscopia pollster is measuring public ipinion on a daly basis through this crisis. Apparently the government started with good approval rates, but figures dropped at the peak of the curve, improved when the curve stabilized and began to go down... but approval rates dropped again due to blatant communication errors related to the way children would be allowed go out with their parents. Polling figures say that a vast majority supports major agreements between parties. Possibly because of that Inés Arrimadas increased her approval rates in the last times. Rumours say PP is polling well, but there's a large number of undecided in these times of confusion. I mean pollsters make estimations, but we must take them with some grains of salt due to the changing situation and the big amount of undecided.

The government is not apparently in good shape, firstly because of the brutal impact of the crisis and,secondly because of errors. However, I don't think we are in a situation to determine there's a consolidated trend against or in favour the government. PP and certain Madrid circles are confident that Pedro Sánchez will fall in 2021 due to the terrible economic situation. I have not a clue, just wonder whether is pissible that Casado reaches power without Vox and the consequent democratic involution. The other way to reach power again would be a grand,coalition or a concentration government...

[Velasco]

Apparently there is a Spanish version of the Canada/Israel meme, so enjoy I suppose!

I am personally at the quad point between socialist, leftist cuñado, republican and europist

Why are the Basque Nationalists on the far right?

I have absolutely no idea tbh. I suppose that "because they care only about money" or something like that lol

Either way I did not make this.

How many Hapsburg nostalgics, CNT-FAI anarchists and Carlists remain in Spain nowadays? I would argue close to zero, even though I have met some anarchists (but they are very few). There are plenty of 'cuñados' and bad internet memes, that's for sure

[CumbrianLefty]

Apparently there is a Spanish version of the Canada/Israel meme, so enjoy I suppose!

I am personally at the quad point between socialist, leftist cuñado, republican and europist

Why are the Basque Nationalists on the far right?

I have absolutely no idea tbh. I suppose that "because they care only about money" or something like that lol

Either way I did not make this.

How many Hapsburg nostalgics, CNT-FAI anarchists and Carlists remain in Spain nowadays? I would argue close to zero, even though I have met some anarchists (but they are very few). There are plenty of 'cuñados' and bad internet memes, that's for sure

36 different categories, so a few will be fairly niche by definition