Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[CumbrianLefty]

Certainly been a pretty big fall from grace for Juan Carlos.

[Velasco]

Certainly been a pretty big fall from grace for Juan Carlos.

The king is naked!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Emperor%27s_New_Clothes

[Former President tack50]

Certainly been a pretty big fall from grace for Juan Carlos.

Yeah, had he not been corrupt he probably goes down in history as one of the better monarchs in Spain; certainly the best since what, Alfonso XII? The short lived Amadeo I? Maybe Carlos III?

Now his legacy will be a lot more mixed. On one hand the will still be the king that turned Spain into a democracy and who voluntarily relinquished power; and who saved said democracy in a fateful night in 1981. On the other, he later became corrupt and surrounded by scandal.

[Velasco]

Yeah, had he not been corrupt he probably goes down in history as one of the better monarchs in Spain; certainly the best since what, Alfonso XII? The short lived Amadeo I? Maybe Carlos III

Leaving aside Amadeo of Savoy, who was only passing by, all the Spanish monarchs in the XIX and XX centuries were tyrannical, incompetent or irrelevant. Carlos III was the more palatable omong the XVIII century kings

Regarding Juan Carlos, even assuming the official hagiography, he has been.living off the rents since 1981. But lying in bed to rest or the Corinna affair would have not been an issue without the Saudi bribes. However, it's clear there's a close connection between Corinna, the Saudis and the rest of scumbags. There is a certain corruption and immorality inherent to these aristocrats and businessmen, as well a sense of impunity that maybe is related to the king's constitutional inviolability and the sycophants surrounding JC. Spanish media is guilty, too. Media enterprises always turned a blind eye on the king's irregular behaviour, until the hunting accident in Bostwana amidst a terrible economic crisis made it impossible

[Lumine]

Certainly been a pretty big fall from grace for Juan Carlos.

Yeah, had he not been corrupt he probably goes down in history as one of the better monarchs in Spain; certainly the best since what, Alfonso XII? The short lived Amadeo I? Maybe Carlos III?

Now his legacy will be a lot more mixed. On one hand the will still be the king that turned Spain into a democracy and who voluntarily relinquished power; and who saved said democracy in a fateful night in 1981. On the other, he later became corrupt and surrounded by scandal.

One could even contend Juan Carlos's role in 1981 wasn't as heroic as it might seem, depending on the interpretation of what led Adolfo Suarez to resign on the first place (leaving aside more sinister conspiracy theories, which seem very hard to believe).

Could this bring down Felipe VI and the entire monarchy or is the King's political survival likely?

[Velasco]

One could even contend Juan Carlos's role in 1981 wasn't as heroic as it might seem, depending on the interpretation of what led Adolfo Suarez to resign on the first place (leaving aside more sinister conspiracy theories, which seem very hard to believe).

Could this bring down Felipe VI and the entire monarchy or is the King's political survival likely?

Exactly. I tend to be sceptic, both regarding hagiography and conspiracy theories. There is a grey zone in the events that led to the demise of Adolfo Suárez and their connection to the 1981 coup. There is an interpretation that says JC withdrew his support and let Suárez fall. Other plot stories are more obscure.

I think it's impossible to answer your question. I tend to think Felipe won't fall tomorrow. But the reputation of his family might be damaged beyond repair, making long term survival or succession less likely. Felipe will address the nation within half an hour, I believe. Let's wait until he speaks!

[Velasco]

The king's speech lasted only 7 minutes. He addressed the coronavirus crisis, after a meeting with the emergency cabinet. Felipe appealed to the nation's unity to fight the virus, in a Churchillian fashion (calls to resist). Unsurprisingly, he didn't say a word about his father. While it's true the coronavirus crisis and the JC affairs are totally unrelated issues, the King's House took advantage of the present state of shock to issue a note, saying Felipe cuts money grants to his father and rennounces inheritance . It uwas unnoticed. I could hear people hitting pots in my neighbourhood, and apparently people staged cacerolazos throughout Spain that lasted minutes. Maybe not massive*, but quite telling. People is upset

*Edit: The protest was massive in Catalonia and other places. In my neighbourhood it was audible, but not thundering

[Former President tack50]

First post-corona poll. It is not from the most reliable newspaper or pollster but it is better than nothing:

https://www.esdiario.com/92368796/Sondeo-ESdiario-el-PSOE-se-hunde-por-la-tardia-reaccion-de-Sanchez-al-Covid-19.html

ESdiario / Demoscopia y Servicios

PSOE: 24,5% (101)
PP: 23,9% (103)
VOX 14,5% (52)
UP 13,4% (37)
C's 8,3% (13)
MP 1,3%

Right: 46.7% (168)
Left: 37.9% (138)

First poll to have PP in the lead (in terms of seats at least) in over a year.

Honestly I think the left vs right gap is a bit too big, both in terms of votes and in terms of seats.

[Velasco]

That poll looks like rightwing propaganda. The prediction for PP and Cs is pure science fiction, while Vox is probably too low. I'd say the position of the PSOE-UP coalition is more consolidated under current corcumstances. The PP regional governments are cooperating, as well the Catalan separatists... even PP leader has stated willingness to pass an emergency ''reconstruction'' budget! In short, those jerks at esdiario are insulting our intelligence

On the other hand, the king's popularity must be reaching a nadir after recent developments and the uninspiring address last night. It's about time the CIS and the other pollsters ask about monarchy!

[Skye]

That poll looks like rightwing propaganda. The prediction for PP and Cs is pure science fiction, while Vox is probably too low. I'd say the position of the PSOE-UP coalition is more consolidated under current corcumstances. The PP regional governments are cooperating, as well the Catalan separatists... even PP leader has stated willingness to pass an emergency ''reconstruction'' budget! In short, those jerks at esdiario are insulting our intelligence

On the other hand, the king's popularity must be reaching a nadir after recent developments and the uninspiring address tonight. It's about time the CIS and the other pollsters ask about monarchy!

It would make sense if the people are dissatisfied with the government's response to the crisis. But we don't have any data on that yet, so it seems we'll have to wait for other polls for confirmation.

[Velasco]

Yes, we don't have reliable poll data to confirm. However, I don't see people is angry at the government's response out of some criticism that is logical. The signals are clear in what concerns the king, otoh

[Velasco]

40Db poll for El Pais on the coronavirus crisis

Level of concern: 92.3% is very concerned pr fairly concerned

Tracking news about coronavirus:

-Media outlets: 36.7% is looking for all the time, 48.3% several times per day, 11.9% at least once a day, 1.2% every two days, 1.1% less frequently, 0.9% hardly ever or never

-Whatsapp and social networks: 27.8% all the time, 46.4% several times per day, 14.2% at least once a day, 1.5% every two days, 5.3% less frequently,  4-8% hardly ever or never

Probability of infection:

-Yourself getting infected: 4.8% very high, 24.6% fairly high, 45.6% low, 7.4% no likelihood

-You infecting others: 4.9% very high, 17.8% fairly high, 42.5% low, 18.2% no likelihoood (...)

-Recovery after contagion: 27.3% very high, 40.4% fairly high, 13.5% low, a tiny percent says no likelihood

-Someone in your near environment gets infected and dies: 8.7% very high, 21.7% fairly high, 32.8% low, 15.8% no lkelihood

Level of anxiety at home:  11.2% very nervous, 28.9% fairly nervous, 34.6% little nervous, 25.3% calm

Society after the coronoavirus crisis will be:

-Supportive: 4.5% less, 31.3% no change, 60.3% more

-Strong: 13.8% less, 32.4% no change, 47.7% more

 -Fearful; 7.6% less, 32.1% no change, 53.6% more

https://elpais.com/espana/2020-03-19/la-mitad-de-los-espanoles-teme-perder-el-empleo-por-la-crisis.html

Government's response to the crisis:

-All of Spain: 7.5% very good, 28.2% good, 29.1% average, 13.2% bad, 20.7% very bad

-Catalonia: 3.9% very good, 29.2% good, 28.2% average, 13.3% bad, 17.7% very bad

-Madrid: 7.7% very good, 24.4% good, 26.5% average, 16.6% bad, 24.8% very bad

-Andalusia: 9.6% very good, 29.6% good, 28.2% average, 13.3% bad, 17.7% very bad

The level of satisfaction/dissatisfaction in regions seems to be related to the impact of the crisis and the ideological lines. Madrid, for instance, is the equivalent to Lombardy in Spain and is right-leaning. The level of dissatisfaction in Catalonia is above average, but lower than Madrid. Andalusians are apparently more satisfied than the average.

  Regional premiers Isabel Díaz Ayuso (Madrid) and Quim Torra (Catalonia) have voiced complaints against the government. Quim Torra suggested to the BBC the Spanish government was not enforcing the confinement of the Catalan population, as well he sent a "letter to Europe''. The claim is obviously false (confinement has been enforced nationwide) and even ERC spokepersons have stated it's not time for "politicking", but anyway public opinion is influenced by the strong separatist feeling in part of the population. The situation in Madrid is worsening every day, with the regional healthcare system increasingly overburdened. Madrid premier claims central government is blocking medical provisions such as masks and respirators, but Healthcare minister Salvador Illa (a Catalan socialist) denied the accusations vigorously. On th other hand, people in the left criticizes the cuts in in the healthcare system implemented by the succesive conservative governments in Madrid during the last two decdes. The unity of action against the coronavirus has some breaches, which is sad but unsurprising.

[Former President tack50]

Nobody has really mentioned it, but the 2 days ago PM Sánchez requested a 15 day extension of the state of alarm in order to deal with the coronavirus (otherwise it would expire this Sunday).

Unlike the first time, any extensions to the state of alarm must be voted by the Congress of Deputies. That vote happened yesterday, with the following result:

Yes: 321 (PSOE, PP, Vox, UP, Cs, PNV, MP, CC, NCa, NA+, Compromís, PRC, Foro, TEx)
Abstain: 28 (ERC, JxCat, Bildu, CUP)
No: 0

While the vote was unanimous, the debate wasn't, with the secessionist parties (JxCat, ERC, Bildu) wanting tougher measures and critizising how the government centralized the response; while the right wing parties critizise the government for acting late.

[Skye]

Nobody has really mentioned it, but the 2 days ago PM Sánchez requested a 15 day extension of the state of alarm in order to deal with the coronavirus (otherwise it would expire this Sunday).

And we are most likely headed for another one.

[Former President tack50]

While polling has almost completely stopped, and the few polling we have does not seem very consistent; it does seem Sánchez is not getting a "rally with the flag" effect. However a poll from Galicia today (which had to cancel its election scheduled for April) does show a "rally with the flag effect" for regional premier Alberto Núñez Feijoo:

Galician regional election poll by Infortécnica (38 seats for a majority)

PP: 39-42
PSOE: 17-20
BNG: 11-12
UP: 4-8

This changes my rating from Tossup -> Lean PP

Nobody has really mentioned it, but the 2 days ago PM Sánchez requested a 15 day extension of the state of alarm in order to deal with the coronavirus (otherwise it would expire this Sunday).

And we are most likely headed for another one.

Indeed, Sanchez is expected to pass another 15 day extension of the state of alarm. This needs to be ratified by Congress but PP has already said they are voting in favour so it does not matter.+

It does seem like the worst of the pandemic is behind us thankfully though, as the amounts of deaths and infections seem to have plateaued.

I believe the restriction on "only essencial workers are allowed to go to the street" will be lifted after the Easter holidays; though there will still be a "stay at home" order.

[Mike88]

While polling has almost completely stopped, and the few polling we have does not seem very consistent; it does seem Sánchez is not getting a "rally with the flag" effect. However a poll from Galicia today (which had to cancel its election scheduled for April) does show a "rally with the flag effect" for regional premier Alberto Núñez Feijoo:

I've read that many newspapers and media outlets are boycotting the government's press conferences as questions seem to have to sent to the government before the conferences. Maybe this isn't helping Sanchéz poll numbers.

[Skye]

This may be a bit late, but I made a map of the November General election results in the city of Madrid by barrios. It's presented by ideological blocs, i.e. Blue = Right (PP+VOX+C's), Red = Left (PSOE+UP+MP). And yes, I'm using Atlas colors, because why not.

Anyway, the Ayuntamiento de Madrid had the results available by barrio and I obviously couldn't result the urge to map it. Hope you like it.

[CumbrianLefty]

Clear divide between East/West, as is the case with a lot of cities.

Is it connected with the prevailing wind direction in this instance, as is often true with the UK?

[Former President tack50]

Clear divide between East/West, as is the case with a lot of cities.

Is it connected with the prevailing wind direction in this instance, as is often true with the UK?

Actually the big divide in Madrid is North/South, not East/West, although as you notice a weaker East/West divide is still present.

Basically the southern neighbourhoods tend to be poorer and therefore vote for the left very hard while the northern neighbourhoods vote for the right. This even extends outside of the Madrid city limits.

Suburbs to the South of Madrid are left wing strongholds. Rivas-Vaciamadrid is relatively famous for IU controlling the mayorship there very often (I think it is the largest IU mayorship). However there are plenty of other southern left wing commuter towns/suburbs like Leganés, Getafe, Fuenlabrada or Parla.

Meanwhile, the Northern suburbs of Madrid lean towards the right (places like San Sebastián de los Reyes), though because Madrid is followed by mountains towards the north and northwest there are not that many suburbs in the north.

The most right wing suburbs are those located in the West indeed, with places like Pozuelo, Majadahonda or Las Rozas routinely giving the right 70% of the vote.

[TJ in Oregon]

Is there a difference in climate between the wealthier and poorer areas? On google maps the northern and western suburbs look a little more lush.

I will say, Spain seems like it's one of most difficult countries to tell the upscale/right areas from the downscale/left areas just by appearance.

[Former President tack50]

Is there a difference in climate between the wealthier and poorer areas? On google maps the northern and western suburbs look a little more lush.

I will say, Spain seems like it's one of most difficult countries to tell the upscale/right areas from the downscale/left areas just by appearance.

Well, the wealthier suburbs should be closer to the "Central Range" mountains while the Southern suburbs are closer to Castille-La Mancha and the southern half of the "Meseta", so yeah, there is probably a difference in climate and geography.

Also on that point you might be interested on a combination of these 2 maps:

Spanish precincts by income: https://www.eldiario.es/economia/MAPA-dinero-vecinos-ingresos-calle_0_955405289.html

General election results by precinct: https://www.eldiario.es/politica/votaron-resultados-elecciones-generales-calle_0_962404599.html

So with this 2 maps combined you can probably see the strong correlation beween income and election results. And combining that with Google maps you can probably get an idea of how upscale and downscale areas look like.

Anyways, for Madrid in particular, here is how the look:

Rich/upscale areas

The neighbourhood of Salamanca in Madrid city proper (Madrid precinct 4-009; 91% right)
https://www.google.com/maps/@40.4289068,-3.6824615,3a,75y,356.12h,102.83t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1srhN5eFMOMqhoV9FJldMMdw!2e0!7i16384!8i8192

Most of Madrid's western suburbs* (Pozuelo de Alarcón precinct 1-019; 75% right)
https://www.google.com/maps/@40.418697,-3.8347416,3a,75y,39.54h,87.67t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sM36tnkgzMq_ZlGmWSacapg!2e0!7i16384!8i8192

^{*: Note some of these are actual genuine gated communities, so Google Maps is not available. Also note you have to go to actual suburbs in these areas, as "downtown Pozuelo" is actually middle class or even leaning poor.}

Poor/Downscale areas

Several neighbourhoods in Southern Madrid, most notably Vallecas, San Cristobal de los Ángeles and Usera (Madrid precinct 17-037; 75% left)
https://www.google.com/maps/@40.3442557,-3.6913254,3a,75y,226.45h,97.16t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1s_r4lJaOESB0OwelouSAvLw!2e0!7i16384!8i8192

These should be relatively good representations of how the upscale and downscale areas in Spain look like, at least in cities.

Rich people live either in suburbs with detached housing or in the 19th century city expansions just outside the old town center.

Poor people generally live in appartment blocks built during the 50s and 60s, often with precarious building conditions and what not (though there are some poor areas in Vallecas that do look nice from the outside, but are quite poor anyways)

[Estrella]

The class voting patterns and the parties' (especially PP) attitudes towards religion and social issues in general got me thinking: is there any information about religiosity by class? Basically, I know why urban upper class votes for the right, but I'm curious if it's despite their conservatism on non-economic matters, or if it's connected to it ("right wing on everything").

[Lechasseur]

The class voting patterns and the parties' (especially PP) attitudes towards religion and social issues in general got me thinking: is there any information about religiosity by class? Basically, I know why urban upper class votes for the right, but I'm curious if it's despite their conservatism on non-economic matters, or if it's connected to it ("right wing on everything").

At anyrate in France I'd say the UMC are more religious. I'd assume it's the same in Spain.

[Velasco]

Is there a difference in climate between the wealthier and poorer areas? On google maps the northern and western suburbs look a little more lush.

I will say, Spain seems like it's one of most difficult countries to tell the upscale/right areas from the downscale/left areas just by appearance.

Madrid is one of the most unequal capitals in Europe and the class divide is easy to spot on geography. The lush in N and NW may well be Monte de El Pardo (a forest) or the housing typology (houses with gardens). Keep in mind Madrid is an European city with a higher population density, especially in central suburbs. Also, the areas closer to the Central Range are wetter and have more trees, while the southern plains are more arid

The class voting patterns and the parties' (especially PP) attitudes towards religion and social issues in general got me thinking: is there any information about religiosity by class? Basically, I know why urban upper class votes for the right, but I'm curious if it's despite their conservatism on non-economic matters, or if it's connected to it ("right wing on everything").

I
Spanish society has became fairly secular and the religious feelings are weak among young people. Older people have stronger religious convictions and this may be cortelated to the PP base of support (PP is the preferred party of people over 65, with support dropping sharply with the younger age groups) Vox, on the other hand, has the support of some ultra-conservative catholic sectors. The far right party is stronger in.middle aged groups (35-54)

Personally I am very angry at the disloyalty of the Spanish right in times of crisis. Despite some mistakes, the government is standing up to the people. PP and Vox are being miserable in their atracks, spreading fake news and creating dischord. Pablo Casado is clearly trailing the party led by Santiago Abascal, which benefits Vox at the expense of PP. The attitude of Inés Arrimadas is being more constructive, but her party is irrelevant now. Anyway I'm taking distance from constant news feed, in order to stay mentally healthy through this confinement.

[Former President tack50]

Personally I am very angry at the disloyalty of the Spanish right in times of crisis. Despite some mistakes, the government is standing up to the people. PP and Vox are being miserable in their atracks, spreading fake news and creating dischord. Pablo Casado is clearly trailing the party led by Santiago Abascal, which benefits Vox at the expense of PP. The attitude of Inés Arrimadas is being more constructive, but her party is irrelevant now. Anyway I'm taking distance from constant news feed, in order to stay mentally healthy through this confinement.

Yeah I totally agree, The opposition is being a very hard opposition, and several tweets and affirmations from Vox in particular are horrible.

However just like you I am trying to avoid most news related to the virus, as I am sick (lol) and tired of them.