Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021
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  Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021
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Velasco
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« Reply #1375 on: February 01, 2020, 11:34:00 PM »
« edited: February 02, 2020, 05:58:20 AM by Velasco »

GESOP poll for El Periódico; ERC would come first in Catalan elections and could choose between JxCAT and PSC to govern (more likely the first option, with the outside support of the CUP; CatComú would gladly join a leftwing coalition with ERC and the PSC)

ERC 33-34 seats (22%)
JxCAT 29-30 (19%)
PSC 22-23 (16.9%)
Cs 15-17 (12.8%)
CatComú 11-12 (9.4%)
CUP 8-9 (6.6%)
VOX 6-7 (5.5%)
PP 5-6 (4.8%)

Acting Deputy Premier and ERC second-in-line Pere Aragonès states his organization's goal is that pro-independence parties cross the 50% threshold, in order to put pressure on the Spanish government in upcoming negotiations. He criticized both PSC and JxCAT. Socialists are criticized because  their refusal to support the regional budget plan doesn't help to solve the problems of the people and coalition partners because pounding your chest does not make you more nationalist. Aragonès claims his party is honest the only one committed to the progress of Catalonia and the separatist cause (''that's why people vote for us"). On a side note, ERC backed the budget plan 0f the Colau local government in Barcelona (BComú-PSC) in exchange for the support of Catalunya en Comú[/i] to the regional budget plan
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windjammer
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« Reply #1376 on: February 02, 2020, 07:41:00 AM »

I guess it is likely the pro independence get the majority of seats?
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Velasco
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« Reply #1377 on: February 02, 2020, 08:17:05 AM »
« Edited: February 02, 2020, 08:20:12 AM by Velasco »

I guess it is likely the pro independence get the majority of seats?

Yes, it s very likely pro-independence parties get again a majority of seats. It shouldn't be surprising, given the good results of Catalan nationalist parties in past year's elections. Turnout among pro-independence constituency is usually high. Another question is that they manage to get a majority of votes. They came close in last regional elections, getting 47.5% with a massive overall turnout, and a bit closer in 2019 EP elections with a lower turnout. Crossing the 50% threshold, a psychological barrier, is a strategic goal for ERC leadership. It's neither easy nor impossible.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1378 on: February 02, 2020, 09:39:16 AM »

I guess it is likely the pro independence get the majority of seats?

Yes,it's not hard for the  pro-indie parties to get a majority presently. The electoral system and the party divisions (more non-indie parties than indie) mean that the Indie parties easily sweep the rural parts of the province, locking out almost all of the non-indies. The non-indie parties divide their vote, denying themselves seats and allowing the larger nationalists parties to gain representation.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1379 on: February 02, 2020, 10:15:37 AM »

I guess it is likely the pro independence get the majority of seats?

Yes,it's not hard for the  pro-indie parties to get a majority presently. The electoral system and the party divisions (more non-indie parties than indie) mean that the Indie parties easily sweep the rural parts of the province, locking out almost all of the non-indies. The non-indie parties divide their vote, denying themselves seats and allowing the larger nationalists parties to gain representation.

Regarding the division of non-indies it's possible that PP and Cs will run together in Catalonia and the Basque Country this year, providing that conservatives accept the Cs candidate Lorena Roldán in Catalonia. Inés Arrimadas has already proposed 'constitutionalist' coalitions in those regions and Galicia. Arrimadas is the de facto Cs leader in the interregnum period opened between the departure of Albert Rivera and the next party convention. However, PP rejects the coalition in Galicia. Pablo Casado and premier Alberto Núñez Feijóo deem it unnecessary, given that currently PP has a majority and Cs is a non-parliamentary force in the NW region.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1380 on: February 04, 2020, 09:49:04 AM »

Yesterday inaugural session in Congress, with institutional speech by King Felipe.

https://english.elpais.com/news/2020-02-03/king-felipe-vi-addressing-parliament-spain-must-be-for-everyone.html


Quote
 Spain’s King Felipe VI on Monday presided the official opening of the new political term, addressing a Congress of Deputies partly occupied by the first coalition government since the 1930s, and where separatist lawmakers were conspicuously absent.    

Separatist parties (ERC. JxCAT, EH Bildu, CUP and BNG) refused to attend the session. As veteran journalist Iñaki Gabilondo says, the throne of the ''Citizen Borbón'' won't be jeopardized as long as separatists are the standard bearers of the republican cause. Ironically the main threat for the monarchy comes from the most passionate suporters in the Spanish Right. It's not dufficult to imagine that an institution canibalized by Vox or PP could alienate a majority of the population.

Metroscopia monthly survey (Publico)

PSOE 26.8%, PP 20.5%, VOX 15.3%, UP 13.3%, Cs 6.1%, MP 2.7%
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PSOL
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« Reply #1381 on: February 07, 2020, 03:10:20 PM »

Looks like the new government has a lot of work to do
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Velasco
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« Reply #1382 on: February 08, 2020, 01:58:32 PM »

Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez met with Catalan premier* Quim Torra a couple of days ago. It was better than I expected. Hopefully and with due caution, this might be the beginning of a new and more constructive phase of the Catalan crisis. Anyway ten years of deadlock and polarization won't end in tendays and there is a long way ahead. Inés Arrimadas deemed the meeting as a "stab in the back", while PP and Vox made harsh statements. However, a poll released yesterday by La Sexta TV channel says dialogue is supported by 83% in Catalonia and 57% in Spain as a whole.  Sánchez also met with Barcelona Mayor Ada Colau and they agreed to develop projects that might enhance the role of the city.

https://english.elpais.com/politics/catalonia_independence/2020-02-06/spanish-pm-meets-with-catalan-premier-ahead-of-talks-on-regions-future.html

Quote
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez held a much-anticipated meeting with the Catalan regional premier Quim Torra today, as part of promised talks on the future of the northeastern Spanish region. The two politicians met at the seat of the premier in Catalonia, the Palau de la Generalitat, in the regional capital of Barcelona, and during their encounter Sánchez proposed that political dialogue starts this very month.

Catalonia has for years now been immersed in an independence drive, which peaked in 2017 when an illegal referendum on secession from Spain was held, followed by the passing of a unilateral declaration of independence by the Catalan parliament. Last year saw nine of the pro-independence politicians and civil association leaders jailed for their involvement in the events of that year, while the trial of four figures connected to the regional police force, the Mossos d’Esquadra, for their role in the same events is ongoing (...)


Indeed. The UN envoy visited some impoverihed places in Spain, but I think his report is largely based on the periodical reports made by Cáritas,  the Catholic Church's official organization in Spain for charity and social relief, instituted by the Spanish Episcopal Conference

Quote
“Spain is a country with a grand history, a global leader in some areas, and a cultural beacon,” he said in a preliminary report published on Friday.

“But Spain today needs to take a close look at itself in the mirror. What it will see is not what most Spaniards would wish for. The self-image of a close family-based society rooted in deeply shared values and social solidarity has been badly fractured by an economic crisis and the implementation of neoliberal policies. The local and familial safety nets that had been historically important continue to work for the well-off, but have been undermined for a large part of the population.” 

I couldn't agree more

 
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Velasco
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« Reply #1383 on: February 09, 2020, 11:00:48 AM »

Catalan elections: GAD3 poll for La Vanguardia

ERC 37 seats (24.9%)
JxCAT 31 (19.8%)
PSC 27 (20.3%)
Cs 12 (8.5%)
CatComú 10 (8.8%)
PP 8 (6.7%)
CUP 6 (5.1%)
VOX 4 (4.4%)

Coalitions (majority: 68 seats)

ERC+JxCAT 68 seats
ERC+PSC+CatComú  74 seats
PSC+PP+Cs 47 seats

Vote share with a PP-Cs coalition ('Catalunya Suma'):

ERC 24.9%, PSC 21.1%, JxCAT 20%, PP+Cs 14.5%, CatComú-Podem 8.9%, CUP 5.2%, VOX 3.7%

Preferred government:

ERC+JxCAT with outside support from the CUP (pro-independence): Yes 26.6%, No 66.1%
ERC+PSC+CatComú (leftwing): Yes 27.8%, No 64.6%
Cs+PSC+PP (constitutionalist): Yes 19.2%, No 74%
Minority government of the leading party: Yes 38.4%, No 54.6%

Pro-independence parties would reach nearly 50% of the vote, due to a 10% drop in turnout mostly affecting non-nationalist voers

Support for independence: In Favour 44%, Against 49%, Undecided 7%

(Most of the undecided are nationalist voters,, according to the poll)
 
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1384 on: February 10, 2020, 10:21:23 AM »

Basque premier Iñigo Urkullu (PNV) has just called for a snap Basque election scheduled for the 5th of April. He has called the election 6 months early in order to separate it from the widely expected Catalan regional elections. It remains to be seen what Galician premier Alberto Núñez Feijoo (PP) will do, but I think he will try and expire his full term instead of calling the Galician election early.

In any case the Basque elections will be an absolute snoozefest barring any unexpected changes during the campaign. The PNV government will be easily reelected and propped up by PSE. (currently PNV-PSE is 1 seat short of a majority, and have done deals with PP and UP in a case by case basis).

I can't even think of any questions to ask regarding the other parties. Anyways, here are some of the most interesting things that could theoretically happen, even if they are all quite unlikely (in order of very unlikely to essencially impossible):

-Vox getting a seat
-UP beating PSE
-PSE overtaking Bildu
-Cs getting a seat
-PNV getting an overall majority

Yeah they are all very unlikely, but still it's the closest things that could happen to make the election fun

Anyways, while it is very outdated here is the last poll I was able to find (from October 2019, in other words before even the November general election)

75 seats, 38 for a majority

PNV 40% (30)
EH Bildu: 22% (17)
PSE: 15% (12)
UP: 12% (9)
PP: 8% (7)
Vox: 1% (0)
Cs: 1% (0)
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Velasco
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« Reply #1385 on: February 10, 2020, 10:51:09 AM »

I think elections in Catalonia and Galicia will take place by October
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Velasco
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« Reply #1386 on: February 10, 2020, 12:39:50 PM »

Galicia premier Alberto Núñez Feijóo calls regional election on April 5, in coincidence with the Basque election
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1387 on: February 10, 2020, 01:05:56 PM »

Unlike the Basque election snoozefest, the Galician election is a pure tossup where everything can happen.

One of the big questions is whether or not Vox will get any seats. The even bigger question is whether PP keeps its overall majority or not. And if PP does lose its majority, whether the left gets one of its own.

Anyways, my ratings for the 3 elections:

Galicia: Tossup
Basque Country: Safe PNV
Catalonia: Tossup (safe secessionist majority; lean broad left majority)
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Velasco
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« Reply #1388 on: February 10, 2020, 03:59:37 PM »
« Edited: February 10, 2020, 08:09:06 PM by Velasco »

PP leader Pablo Casado will confirm former Health minister Alfonso Alonso as candidate for the upcoming Basque elections, according to eldiario. Alonso is a moderate who supported Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría in the leadership contest. The current leader of the PP's Basque branch has shown little enthusiasm for the proposed 'constitutionalist' coalition with Cs (either 'España Suma' or 'Mejor Unidos'). There is little time to forge a deal, since the electoral legislation in the Basque Country gives 10 days from now on to register coalitions. On a side note, the moderate Borja Sémper quitted politics recently due to the climate of polarization in Spanish politics. Sémper wwas the PP spokesman in the Basque parliament and councilor in Donosti-San Sebastián. Both Alonso and Sémper are the opposite to radicals like Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo, the PP spokeswoman in Congress.

Meanwhile in Galicia Podemos, IU and Anova have neither a coalition deal nor a candidate. These parties ran together in 2016 within a coalition called 'En Marea', but later the parliamentary caucus splitted in two. The 2016 candidate Luis Villares and some deputies held the banner 'En Marea', which ran in the 2019 general elections with little success. Podemos, IU and Anova disassociated. The two former ran together in general elections within Galicia en Común, while Anova (a BNG split led by the charismatic Xosé Manuel Beiras) did not contest. The leftwing nationalist BNG is apparently on the rise again and might benefit from this situation. On the other hand, Alberto Núñez Feijóo rejects a coalition with Cs.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1389 on: February 12, 2020, 08:53:39 PM »
« Edited: February 13, 2020, 07:32:23 AM by Velasco »

Podemos secretary general Pablo Iglesias agrees an amicable separation with Teresa Rodríguez, the leader of the Andalusian branch and prominent member of the Anticapitalist faction. Rodríguez and her team won't run for reelection, paving the way for Iglesias to control the Andalusian organization. They will leave the party and Anticapitalistas won't be part of Podemos anymore. Differences on organizational model and the PSOE-UP coalition deal -much criticized by Teresa Rodríguez and her faction- have finally provoked rupture. Rodríguez always defended her autonomy and sought unsuccessfully to make her regional organization independent from Podemos, with a separate legal personality (similar to En Comú Podem in Catalonia). Rodríguez will remain as leader of Podemos Andalucía until the next regional convention taking onplace in May. The eleven Podemos members in the regional parliament will retain their seats, including Rodríguez. The decision to break with Podemos jeopardizes Adelante Andalucía, a project launched by Teresa Rodríguez and Antonio Maíllo, the former IU regional coordinator (replaced by Toni Valero). The relationship between the Rodríguez faction and IU has strained recently, due to the unconditional support of the latter to the PSOE-UP coalition government. Some IU spokesperson remarked they have a deal with Podemos in Andalusia and not with Rodríguez. It's unclear whether Rodríguez and her faction will compete against UP or seek alliances in the future, but anyway they have registered the Adelnte Analucía trademark.

Spanish Congress approves first step towards euthanasia law

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-02-12/spanish-congress-approves-first-step-toward-a-euthanasia-law.html

Quote
“Let whoever wants to live, live, but let the rest of us die with dignity.” With this quote uttered by Fernando Cuesta, a patient with Lou Gehrig’s disease who had to travel to Switzerland to end his life, Spain’s lower house of parliament on Tuesday began considering a bill to regulate euthanasia.

Introduced by the Socialist Party (PSOE), this is the first piece of legislation to reach the floor of the Congress of Deputies since the new government was sworn in last month. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, of the PSOE, heads a center-left coalition that also includes Unidas Podemos.

With 201 votes in favor, 140 against – from the conservative Popular Party (PP) and the far-right Vox – and two abstentions, Congress agreed to consider the initiative, which will now enter a period of amendments and go to the congressional Health Committee for negotiations.

This is the third time that the text has been taken into consideration by the Spanish parliament, but Health Minister Salvador Illa expressed confidence that it could secure final passage by June.

It was the Socialist lawmaker and former Health Minister María Luisa Carcedo who quoted Cuesta as a way of acknowledging “all the individuals and families who did not remain idle, but who fought so that others may benefit from this right.”

The debate was at times highly emotional. José Ignacio Echániz, a PP lawmaker, accused the promoters of this bill of wanting to save money on pensions and medical treatment at the expense of the most vulnerable people. “This is the foundation of the social-engineering project that you are trying to promote,” he said (...)

I have to say it's regrettable the PP spokesperson resorts to so such insidious argument. I think it's understandable -and even desirable ¡, because this is a delicate question worthy of a serious debate- to raise reasoned objections. Sadly ,the opposition parties opt to degrade themselves and the parliament.

Venezuela and José Luis Ábalos were the stars in the Session of Control held on Wednesday. Pedro Sánhez backed the minister of Transport, deeming that Ábalos averted a diplomatic incident

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2020-02-12/spanish-pm-backs-minister-over-meeting-with-venezuelan-vice-president-during-testy-session-in-congress.html

Quote
Spanish Transportation Minister José Luis Ábalos of the governing Socialist Party (PSOE) was called on to resign on Wednesday over his meeting with Venezuelan Vice-President Delcy Rodríguez at the end of January.

Ábalos had talks with the second-in-command to President Nicolás Maduro on January 20, when her plane made a controversial layover at Madrid’s Adolfo Suárez-Barajas airport. Ábalos said he saw Rodríguez inside her private aircraft to stop her from entering Spain, as she is one of 25 Venezuelan officials who are banned from entering the European Union due to the Maduro regime’s “political repression” against the civilian population. The Venezuelan vice-president “never stepped on Spanish soil,” according to security services from the airport, and after her meeting with Ábalos, took a commercial flight to Doha (...)
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Velasco
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« Reply #1390 on: February 16, 2020, 05:24:35 PM »
« Edited: February 17, 2020, 12:08:41 AM by Velasco »

Basque Country election  polls

Gizaker for EITB / GAD3 for ABC

EAJ-PNV 31-32 seats (40.9%) / 31-32 (40.5%)
EH Bildu 17-19 (22.6%) / 18-19 (22.4%)
PSE-EE 11-12 (14.4%) / 10 (12.3%)
Elkarrekin Podemos 8-9 (11.2%) / 7-9 (10.9%)
PP 5-6 (7.2%) / 7(7.9%)
VOX 0 (2.1%) / 0 (2.1%)
Cs 0 (0.7%) / 0 (0.8%)

Total seats: 75 (majority: 38)

Solid PNV lead and majority for the coalition between Basque nationalists and socialists

Galician election poll

Metroscopia for El Confidencial


PP 39 (46.6%)
PSOE 16 (20.1%)
BNG 14 (18.5%)
Esquerda* 6 (8.4%)
VOX 0 (2.7%)
Cs 0 (1.1%)

Total seats: 75 (majority: 38)


Narrow PP majority (solid lead) and BNG surge

*The "Left Common Group (Esquerda)" is aparliamentary group incorporating Podemos, IU, Anova, Equo and some grassroots movements such as Marea Atlántica (led by former A Coruña mayor Xulio Ferreiro) or Compostela Oberta. It's a split of the former En Marea group. For the moment (afaik), these parties and movements have not arranged candiate or coalition deal.


There have been relevant news with political implications this week, such as the cancellation of the World Mobile Congress in Barcelona (coronavirus panic, allegedly) and farmers protests in Valencia, León and elesewhere within a larger emerging protest movement of the countryside and the 'Emptied Spain'

https://english.elpais.com/economy_and_business/2020-02-14/spanish-farmers-stage-fresh-demonstrations-in-protest-at-low-prices-for-their-products.html

Quote
Spanish farmers staged a fresh demonstration on Friday in protest at the low prices of their produce, cutting off roads with their tractors in a number of parts of the country in a repeat of industrial action they have been taking since the end of January.

In Valencia, hundreds of farmers’ vehicles blocked the eastern Mediterranean city’s center, along a route that ended at the doors of the central government’s delegation there. There were also tractor protests in the province of Córdoba, where 5,000 vehicles blocked the freeway to Málaga.

Meanwhile, the Spanish government was today holding meetings with union representatives and bosses from leading supermarket chain Mercadona. The distribution sector is being blamed by farmers for slashing prices and using loss-leading strategies, as well as other similar methods that are having a negative effect on producers’ revenues.

The Friday protest in Valencia attracted 800 tractors, and was called by the main agrarian organizations. They are calling on the government to take measures to ensure that the prices they receive for their products at least cover their production costs. The farmers were planning to hand over their demands at the government delegation.

Wearing yellow jackets, protester Miguel Ángel Rosa explained to fellow farmer José Piles the problems he faced. “When this Casio gets to the store,” he said, pointing to his watch, “the production costs are already incorporated. But we, on the other hand, are the first who have to shell out, the last to get paid, and we don’t even make back what we have spent.” The pair are both 60 years old and started to work in the countryside at age 14. They produce oranges, persimmon and vegetables.

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TheSaint250
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« Reply #1391 on: February 19, 2020, 07:18:13 PM »

Is the BNG surge likely to be maintained until the election, or is there a chance it wears off?
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« Reply #1392 on: February 20, 2020, 12:27:08 PM »

Is the BNG surge likely to be maintained until the election, or is there a chance it wears off?

I personally think it will be maintained. BNG is coming from a very low point, as in 2016 most of their electorate went to UP, that was when UP was at its national peak. With UP going down a not insignificant part of their electorate will go back to BNG.

UP also sold themselves as a Galician nationalist lite party of sorts that election, or to be more precise; had alliances with people that did; most notably long time former long time BNG leader Xose Manuel Beiras, leader of Anova (a BNG split who ran with IU in 2012, and with UP in 2016).

Similarly, I would expect Bildu to rise in the Basque Country as well, albeit to a lesser extent
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« Reply #1393 on: February 20, 2020, 12:39:44 PM »

In other news, the government is preparing 2 new high profile bills.

The first one is a "Sexual Freedom Bill". Essencially, it is a big reform of all bills relating to rape, sexual assaults, gender violence and what not; including for example the inclusion of the always controversial "only yes is yes" principle (in other words, that explicit consent is needed in sexual relations).

Other changes include actually reducing the penalties for sexual abuse, adding gang rape, drugging a person to rape them and marital rape (this includes non-married couples) as aggravating circumstances and it will criminalize sexual street harrassing (the usual "yell sexist things at random women in the street" stuff)

https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020/02/14/actualidad/1581704814_345657.html

Another big bill will be a new education bill, this time called LOMLOE (Ley Orgánica de Modificación de la Ley Orgánica de Educación).

Apparently it will have 7 main points:

>Modify how people become teachers; including a mandatory internship lasting for one year
>Revise the public scolarships system, reducing the minimum GPA to get a scolarship to a 50/100 (the minimum passing grade in Spain in general) and lowering other requirements
>Implanting a mandatory subject of "Ethics and civic values"
>Parents get back a vote in School Councils
>A complete overhaul of the Vocational Training programs (Formación Profesional, FP)
>The Religion subject will no longer count towards a student's GPA
>Increasing the number of permanent teachers

As per usual, this is just another education bill rolling back whichever things the last education bill made. The biggest example here is the "Ethics and Civic Values" subject. It was first implemented by Zapatero as "Education for Citizenship". Then the Rajoy government deleted it and now Sánchez is bringing it back.

Since Spain became a democracy all PP and PSOE governments have passed at least one full overhaul of the education system. You have Gonzalez's LOGSE, Aznar's LOCE (never implemented), Zapatero's LOE, Rajoy's LOMCE and apparently now Sanchez's LOMLOE. Plus the Francoist bill from 1970.

In fact, had I been a year younger I would have studied under a whopping 4 different education bills! (LOGSE, LOCE, LOE and LOMCE); even if LOCE was never enacted.

https://electomania.es/lomloe-el-gobierno-prepara-una-nueva-ley-de-educacion/
https://www.eldiario.es/sociedad/Celaa-derogara-LOMCE-aprobara-Gobierno_0_997750543.html
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« Reply #1394 on: February 21, 2020, 02:12:36 PM »

PP and Cs have sealed today a coalition agreement for the Basque Country elections. Basically, it's an imposition of Pablo Casado to the leader of the regional branch Alfonso Alonso. The ticket will be called "PP+Cs" and oranges will be granted two electable positions. The text of the agreement says the coalition will be headed by the PP without naming the regional leader, who was opposed to a deal with Cs and bypassed by the PP national leadership. Galicia premier Alberto Núñez Feijóo also rejected a joint ticket with Cs, while oranges rejected the offer to integrate in the PP list. The reason why Pablo Casado imposed the coalition in the Basque Country and not in Galicia is obvious: Alberto Núñez Feijóo leads one of the strongest regional branches and governs with a majority in regional assembly, while PP is much weaker in the Basque Country and plays a marginal role in regional politics. The benefits of a coalition agreement with Cs are at best dubious (see recent polls), but possibly it's a sign of a future merger through absorption. The Galician PP is different from other regional branches, as it has regionalist traits incompatible with the centralism of Cs and Vox. On the other hand, the Basque PP supports the Basque economic agreement which Cs traditionally opposes. This stance was not an impediment for the coalition agreement in the neighbouring Navarre (NA+), as the oranges modulated total opposition to the Navarrese economic agreement.

In the news, Spain is about to introduce tougher requirements to asylum seekers...

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2020-02-19/spain-to-introduce-tougher-asylum-requirements.html

... and the Interior ministry announcement upsets UP

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2020-02-20/spains-coalition-government-clashes-over-immigration-crackdown.html

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The Spanish coalition government between the Socialist Party (PSOE) and the anti-austerity Unidas Podemos is showing the first signs of tensions over plans to introduce tougher asylum requirements. Spain’s Interior Ministry is drafting a new law that will restrict the right to asylum, following the path taken by the European Union in recent years. A draft of the bill, to which EL PAÍS has had access, limits access to asylum application at migrant holding centers, and expands the list of legitimate reasons for denial.

But this is not the only source of conflict. Indeed, the tension between the two parties has been building for weeks in response to Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska’s tougher stance on immigration. In recent months, the minister has increased deportations of undocumented migrants to Mauritania to relieve pressure on Spain’s Canary Islands, which have seen a huge spike in irregular arrivals.

Story: "Why I voted for Vox"

https://english.elpais.com/eps/2020-02-21/why-i-voted-for-vox.html

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As we enter the Murcia region, the sky becomes leaden. The area is on orange alert for severe weather conditions. There were several fatalities during the storms of last September, when torrential rains ruined crops and flooded streets and homes. There were millions of euros worth of damage, and the Mar Menor saltwater lagoon became poisoned, resulting in a carpet of dead marine life being washed ashore (...)

 
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1395 on: February 23, 2020, 06:35:41 PM »

The national PP executive has decided to sack the Basque PP leader Alfonso Alonso. He was opposed to the deal with Cs and was well known for being a moderate inside PP. He will be replaced by Carlos Iturgaiz, a hardliner who was already Basque PP leader in the early 00s.

In any case, this is definitely bad news for PP's already limited appeal in the Basque Country. Why would Casado shoot himself in the foot in this way?
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« Reply #1396 on: February 23, 2020, 07:56:47 PM »

The national PP executive has decided to sack the Basque PP leader Alfonso Alonso. He was opposed to the deal with Cs and was well known for being a moderate inside PP. He will be replaced by Carlos Iturgaiz, a hardliner who was already Basque PP leader in the early 00s.

In any case, this is definitely bad news for PP's already limited appeal in the Basque Country. Why would Casado shoot himself in the foot in this way?

You are probably looking at it the wrong way. You think the point of such a pact is to get more seats in a legislature that PP never has a shot at governing, at least currently. Casado sees the pact as the next step to incorporating the dying C's, so getting everything to work is more important.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1397 on: February 23, 2020, 08:35:09 PM »
« Edited: February 23, 2020, 11:43:36 PM by Velasco »

The national PP executive has decided to sack the Basque PP leader Alfonso Alonso. He was opposed to the deal with Cs and was well known for being a moderate inside PP. He will be replaced by Carlos Iturgaiz, a hardliner who was already Basque PP leader in the early 00s.

In any case, this is definitely bad news for PP's already limited appeal in the Basque Country. Why would Casado shoot himself in the foot in this way?

Pablo Casado sacrifices the already weak Basque PP in exchange for a deal with Cs that hopefully paves the way for the absorption of the orange remains. The incumbent PP leader is just following the road map of his master José María Aznar: ideological rearming and reunification of the Spanish Right under the PP banner. Alonso backed Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría in the leadership contest, as well dislikes Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo (Congress spokeswoman, protegée of Aznar). The man is completely unimportant for Casado. Of course the decision is a shot on the foot of the mediocre PP leadership, as well as disrespectful with a regional organization which suffered a lot during the ETA lead years. Carlos Iturgaiz is a veteran hardliner who has been many years in oblivion. This pick is somewhat surprising for me. I don't think a radical out of touch with the present day is the best choice to run. I guess Casado expects the untouchable Alberto Nuñez Feijóo renews his majority in Galicia, compensating the likely disaster in the Basque elections. By the way, it was rumoured former UPyD leader Rosa Diez could have been the candidate picked by Casado. Ms Diez is currently in the PP orbit. Yet another radical centralist out of touch with the Basque reality. The evolution of Basque politics since the ETA ceasefire has been remarkably opposite to that of Catalonia.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1398 on: February 24, 2020, 04:05:25 AM »

Carlos Iturgaiz has made some statements already. He said in the hard right esradio that Vox leader Santiago Abascal is a ''wonderful person'' and made an appeal to the far right party: ''we are not together because Vox is unwilling to''

Mr Iturgaiz claims that we are under a ''fascist-communist'' government aimed to destroy Spain, a country that is currently in a ''very serious situation'' of national emergency.

As I said earlier, the man is out of touch. The question is, given that Casado is drifting again towards the far right, what the hell are doing Inés Arrimadas and the other fake centrists? Isn't there a window of opportunity for a moderate centre-right party? I'm afraid the Spanish Right is following the Hungarian path (PP-Cs= Fidesz; Vox= Jobbik)
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1399 on: February 24, 2020, 12:55:54 PM »

Well, following from Velasco's question about "What are Arrimadas and the fake centrists doing?", it seems the Cs leadership election got a lot more interesting today.

Francisco Igea, leader of the party in Castille-Leon and well known critic of the leadership of Rivera and Arrimadas, has jumped into the leadership race. Igea became leader in Castille-Leon after winning an election that was rigged against him, and has been the highest profile critic in Cs. He even wanted a PSOE-Cs deal in Castille-Leon but the party shut him down.

Anyways, here is what Igea is proposing. The biggest difference is that Igea is defending a much more decentralized party model, where regional leaders have more autonomy. Currently Cs (alongside Vox) are the most centralized parties in Spain, where regional leaders are little more than puppets to the national leadership. Opponents claim this model is too inflexible and rigid, while supporters claim the alternative of high profile regional leaders (like the infamous PSOE barons) is worse. Igea is also against the PP-Cs deals that have been negotiated for the Basque Country, Catalonia and Galicia.

In a way, this primary reminds me slightly of the 2017 PSOE primary. All the Cs leadership is backing Arrimadas, while the bases (particularly in Catalonia) are supporting Igea. However, Igea is no Pedro Sánchez and I expect him to handily lose, in a scale of 80-20 or something like that; and Cs will slowly but surely be absorbed into PP.

Others have instead put the UP 2017 primary as the example, claiming that Igea is to Cs what Errejón was to UP.

https://elpais.com/politica/2020/02/23/actualidad/1582488811_600629.html
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