Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021
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  Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021
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Velasco
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« Reply #1350 on: January 09, 2020, 08:36:33 AM »

Pedro Sánchez is completing a renovation of the second level of government. The full composition of his cabinet will be known next week. Today it was revealed that Environment minister Teresa Ribera will be upgraded to Deputy PM, focused on Ecologic Transition and Demographic Challenge. There will be four Deputy PMs in the government: Carmen Calvo (taking on Historical Memory and Secularism), Pablo Iglesias (Social Rights and 2030 Agenda), Nadia Calviño (Economy and Digital Transformation) and the aforementioned Ribera.

María Jesús Montero will continue as Finance minister and could be the new government spokeswoman.

The ministers proposed by UP (Irene Montero, Yolanda Díaz, Manuel Castells and Alberto Garzón) have been confirmed.

By the way, there will be two communists in the government. The next Labor minister Yolanda Diaz is also a PCE member.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1351 on: January 13, 2020, 09:06:54 PM »

Spain's new cabinet sworn yesterday

https://elpais.com/elpais/2020/01/13/inenglish/1578924634_936158.html

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The four deputy prime ministers and 18 ministers in the new government of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez were sworn in today before Spain’s King Felipe VI at the Zarzuela Palace. The monarch congratulated the lawmakers and wished them luck. The first Cabinet meeting is due to take place on Tuesday.

Composition of the 'Sánchez II Government (Pedro 2.0)'

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%C3%A1nchez_II_Government

Prime Minister: Pedro Sánchez (PSOE)
    
First Deputy Prime Minister - Minister of the Presidency, Relations with the Cortes and Democratic Memory: Carmen Calvo (PSOE)
   
Second Deputy Prime Minister - Minister of Social Rights and 2030 Agenda: Pablo Iglesias (Podemos)   

Third Deputy Prime Minister - Minister of Economic Affairs and Digital Transformation: Nadia Calviño (Independent)

Fourth Deputy Prime Minister - Minister for the Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge: Teresa Ribera (PSOE)   

Minister of Foreign Affairs, European Union and Cooperation: Arancha González Laya (Independent)    

Minister of Justice: Juan Carlos Campo (Independent)

Minister of Defence : Margarita Robles (Independent)

Minister of Finance - Spokesperson of the Government: María Jesús Montero (PSOE)    

Minister of the Interior: Fernando Grande-Marlaska (Independent)

Minister of Transports, Mobility and Urban Agenda: José Luis Ábalos (PSOE)

Minister of Education and Vocational Training:n: Isabel Celaá (PSOE)
   
Minister of Labour and Social Economy: Yolanda Díaz (IU)
   
Minister of Industry, Trade and Tourism : Reyes Maroto (PSOE)    
   
Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food: Luis Planas (PSOE)

Minister of Territorial Policy and Civil Service: Carolina Darias (PSOE)

Minister of Culture and Sports: José Manuel Rodríguez Uribes (PSOE)
   
Minister of Health: Salvador Illa (PSC)
   
Minister of Science and Innovation :Pedro Duque (Independent)

Minister of Equality: Irene Montero (Podemos)
    
Minister of Consumer Affairs:    Alberto Garzón (IU)

Minister of Inclusion, Social Security and Migration: José Luis Escrivá (Independent)

Minister of Universities: Manuel Castells (Independent, proposed by En Comú Podem)    

All independents except Manuel Castells are personal picks made by Pedro Sánchez. Many of them have a technocratic profile (Nadia Calvinño, Arancha onzález Laya, José Luis Escrivá).


A controversial appointment

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Meanwhile, there was controversy today among the political opposition in reaction to news that Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez had proposed Dolores Delgado as the new attorney general. Delgado was appointed by Sánchez as justice minister in June 2018.

Since Spain returned to democracy in the late 1970s, there has only been one other occasion when a minister has become attorney general, and that was back in 1986 under PSOE Prime Minister Felipe González.

Delgado arrived in government as an independent – judges and prosecutors are barred from joining political parties under Spanish law – but in recent months she has consolidated her political role thanks to harsh clashes with the opposition and she has also campaigned for the PSOE. She was voted in as a deputy at the last elections. 

Vox stages marches against "traitor" Pedro Sánchez

https://elpais.com/elpais/2020/01/13/inenglish/1578905060_772427.html
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1352 on: January 13, 2020, 09:49:28 PM »

Well good job Sanchez for wasting 9 months and making his government more precarious than it could have been under the previous election results. Now that that exercise in pointlessness is complete, maybe he can get around to actually governing for a while (not that he'll last long).
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1353 on: January 13, 2020, 11:50:31 PM »

How likely is it that the budget passes?  With narrow numbers I think there is still a risk it fails which I believe would trigger another election.  If it passes my understanding is Sanchez is safe until next year unless there is a standalone non-confidence.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1354 on: January 14, 2020, 06:12:53 AM »

Well good job Sanchez for wasting 9 months and making his government more precarious than it could have been under the previous election results. Now that that exercise in pointlessness is complete, maybe he can get around to actually governing for a while (not that he'll last long).

And giving a huge leg up to the far right in the process. Apart from that, great job.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1355 on: January 15, 2020, 03:50:29 PM »

Well good job Sanchez for wasting 9 months and making his government more precarious than it could have been under the previous election results. Now that that exercise in pointlessness is complete, maybe he can get around to actually governing for a while (not that he'll last long).

The repetition of elections was pointless and a huge tactical fiasco. Said this, don't understimate Sánchez. He's a hardened survivor, the embodiment of resilience. Personally I'm fed up with our political battles, but I guess they can be fascinating for informed outsiders. Horror is my motivation right now. We wil be much better under the 'Red Leviathan', so I hope Sánchez endures for a while (providing that ERC stays in a pragmatic line, in the midst of the Catalan blender, allowing to pass a budget). Fatalism is one of the greatest malaises of contemporary societies and I refuse to fall, at least not straightaway.
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xelas81
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« Reply #1356 on: January 17, 2020, 05:33:46 PM »
« Edited: January 17, 2020, 06:31:23 PM by xelas81 »

Any updates on what is Mas Pais doing?
Is their goal to overtake Podemos and then PSOE?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1357 on: January 17, 2020, 05:43:50 PM »

When is the budget supposed to come down?  Any chance it might trigger another election.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1358 on: January 20, 2020, 07:40:04 PM »

Vox is on 'cultural battle' mode. Pablo Casado buys the parental veto'

https://elpais.com/elpais/2020/01/20/inenglish/1579513966_679777.html

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A policy from the far-right Spanish political party Vox is causing heated debate over education and the rights of children. Dubbed by Vox as the “parental pin,” the policy gives parents the right to stop their children from attending complementary workshops organized during school hours. The measure means that schools will need to ask for parents’ permission to give “talks, workshops or activities with an ideological or moral leaning against their convictions,” according to the text of policy. This includes talks on sex education and LGBTQ+ rights.  

A couple of personal observations

1) The parents are not the owners of their sons or daughters. In order to illustrate my point of view, I'll resort to a poem by the Lebanese Khalil Gibran entitled 'On Children'

     Your children are not your children.
     They are the sons and daughters of Life’s longing for itself.
     They come through you but not from you,
     And though they are with you yet they belong not to you.

     You may give them your love but not your thoughts,
     For they have their own thoughts.
     You may house their bodies but not their souls,
     For their souls dwell in the house of tomorrow, which you
     cannot visit, not even in your dreams.
     You may strive to be like them, but seek not to make them
     like you.


 2) This is an obvious attack against our public education system

In other news, our government will declare climate emergency tomorrow. So Bolivarian...

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Velasco
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« Reply #1359 on: January 23, 2020, 02:35:20 AM »
« Edited: January 23, 2020, 04:33:09 AM by Velasco »

Pedro Sánchez announced a meeting with Catalan premier Quim Torra next month and promised to have a new budget passed by summer

https://elpais.com/elpais/2020/01/21/inenglish/1579598106_545045.html

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Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez will meet with Catalan premier Quim Torra the first week of February in Barcelona to discuss issues relating to Catalonia. The meeting is part of the agreement the leader of the Socialist Party (PSOE) made with the separatist Catalan Republican Left (ERC) in order to ensure he could be sworn back into office by Congress. The ERC agreed to abstain from Sánchez’s investiture bid on the condition that the PSOE commit to negotiations about the political situation in Catalonia and the future of the region

Also, the government is planning a reform of the criminal code. The crimes of rebellion and sedition could be modified, with the latter being punished by shorter prison sentences. Such reform is in an embryonic phase and will concern a broader range of crimes. In case of being implemented and the crime of sedition is modified, Oriol Junqueras and the other jailed Catalan politicians could be released earlier. It's worth noting that the charge of sedition has no equivalent in the legislation of most European countries. There are voices within the judiciary in favour of reforming both crimes (in the case of rebellion, not to reduce prison sentences but to adapt it to present times). The rightwing opposition claims the reform would be "a covert pardon"

Labour minister Yolanda Diaz negotiated a first increase of the minimum wage with representatives from employers and trade unions-

The government declared the state of climate emergency on Tuesday and committed to submit a draft law on Climate Change within 100 days
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1360 on: January 23, 2020, 01:21:44 PM »

Pedro Sánchez announced a meeting with Catalan premier Quim Torra next month and promised to have a new budget passed by summer

https://elpais.com/elpais/2020/01/21/inenglish/1579598106_545045.html

Quote
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez will meet with Catalan premier Quim Torra the first week of February in Barcelona to discuss issues relating to Catalonia. The meeting is part of the agreement the leader of the Socialist Party (PSOE) made with the separatist Catalan Republican Left (ERC) in order to ensure he could be sworn back into office by Congress. The ERC agreed to abstain from Sánchez’s investiture bid on the condition that the PSOE commit to negotiations about the political situation in Catalonia and the future of the region

Also, the government is planning a reform of the criminal code. The crimes of rebellion and sedition could be modified, with the latter being punished by shorter prison sentences. Such reform is in an embryonic phase and will concern a broader range of crimes. In case of being implemented and the crime of sedition is modified, Oriol Junqueras and the other jailed Catalan politicians could be released earlier. It's worth noting that the charge of sedition has no equivalent in the legislation of most European countries. There are voices within the judiciary in favour of reforming both crimes (in the case of rebellion, not to reduce prison sentences but to adapt it to present times). The rightwing opposition claims the reform would be "a covert pardon"

Labour minister Yolanda Diaz negotiated a first increase of the minimum wage with representatives from employers and trade unions-

The government declared the state of climate emergency on Tuesday and committed to submit a draft law on Climate Change within 100 days

When does the budget come down?  Any chance government falls or will it likely pass?
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Velasco
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« Reply #1361 on: January 23, 2020, 02:01:11 PM »
« Edited: January 23, 2020, 03:27:29 PM by Velasco »

When does the budget come down?  Any chance government falls or will it likely pass?

Read the news I linked before

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The negotiations are also key to ensuring that the PSOE and anti-austerity Unidas Podemos coalition is able to pass a new budget. The government, which lacks an absolute majority in Spain’s lower house of parliament, needs the ERC to abstain from the vote in order to push through its financial plans in Congress. But without talks, “there will be no political term,” warned ERC congressional spokesman Gabriel Rufián during the investiture debate to swear in Sánchez. The prime minister’s earlier failure to secure approval for his 2019 budget blueprint led to early elections in April of last year, followed by a repeat vote of November. The prime minister, however, said he is confident that he can have a new budget approved ''before the end of summer” in September

It depends on the progress of negotiations and on ERC's willingness, given that party holds the key with the current composition of parliament. I can't tell how likely is that the government falls, because  the bilateral commission between governments has not yet begun to work.

ERC and PNV would be willing to negotiate the reform of the criminal code in Congress, including lowering sedition sentences and possible changes on the crimes of rebellion and sexual assault

https://elpais.com/elpais/2020/01/23/inenglish/1579776759_701357.html

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Spain’s coalition government is planning on reforming the country’s criminal code to lower the sentence for sedition, a crime that came into the spotlight following last year’s Supreme Court ruling on the Catalan separatist leaders involved with the 2017 breakaway bid in the northeastern region. Spain’s top court found nine of the defendants guilty of offenses including sedition and handed down lengthy prison sentences, sparking mass protests and disturbances in Catalonia.  

Personally I think the reform is alright, but it has been poorly communicated by Sánchez

Otoh, UP scored a point with the negotiation of the minimum wage rise conducted by Yolanda Diaz and Pablo Iglesias


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mileslunn
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« Reply #1362 on: January 23, 2020, 04:47:05 PM »

Is ERC likely to abstain on budget or could they vote it down triggering a fall election?  Also would budget apply retroactively or would it only kick in for 2021 if passed.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1363 on: January 23, 2020, 06:27:24 PM »
« Edited: January 24, 2020, 02:54:35 AM by Velasco »

Is ERC likely to abstain on budget or could they vote it down triggering a fall election?  Also would budget apply retroactively or would it only kick in for 2021 if passed.

The political situation in Catalonia is too complicated to make predictions. ERC will be under pressure from the inside and the outside, in order to support the government or let it fall. On the one hand, there is a fierce competition within the Catalan independence movement for hegemony (ERC vs JxCAt, Junqueras vs Puigdemont). Since the imprisonment of Oriol Junqueras after the events in autumn 2017, ERC is supporting pragmatic stances and discarding unilateral path to ondependence. On the contrary, the faction supporting Puigdemont (who lives in Belgium, fugitive from justice) is suporting more radical stances and is seconded by civil associations (ANC, Omnium) and the far-left CUP. All 'intransigent' sectors, the radicalized grassroots or the buzz in social networks are elements that push ERC against the deal. Also, there are certain maneuvres from within the 'deep state' or the judiciary that try to make a PSOE-ERC deal fail (see the decision of the Electoral Court disqualifying Quim Torra just before the investiture of Sánchez). Divisions within the governing coalition in Catalonia (JxCAT-ERC), the lack of a majority to pass a budget and the legal situation of premier Torra may trigger new elections and perhaps a new balance of power. On the other hand, Sánchez has cards to play in order to convince ERC (either the bilateral commission or the reform of the penal code). The scenario is highly unpredictable.

I don't know how a budget can be applied retroactively, tbh. I guess budget extension is in force until the new budget is passed, and so on... I know the government is planning to submit the draft in March, in order to have it passed before September
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Velasco
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« Reply #1364 on: January 26, 2020, 12:16:58 AM »
« Edited: January 26, 2020, 12:43:45 AM by Velasco »

Little political storm this week concerning Venezuela. On the one hand, there has been controversy over the visit of opposition leader and "president in charge" Juan Guaidó. Pedro Sánchez decided not holding a meeting with Guaidó, whom met with Foreign Affairs minister instead. Obviously this has raised harsh criticism from the opposition, whose leader Pablo Casado held a brief meeting with the Venezuelan leader. Guaidó was also greeted by local and regional authorities in Madrid (governed by a PP-Cs coalition) as well attended a demonstration of Venezuelan expats against Maduro. The decision of Sánchez also exposed a rift between former socialist PMs José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero and Felipe González, with the latter unconditionally aligning with the Venezuelan opposition and the former advocating a negotiation that leads to democratic elections. On the other hand, a brief meeting between Transport minister José Luis Äbalos and the Venezuelan vice-president Delcy Rodríguez at Madrid airport generated considerable buzz in the media, with allegations of "secret talks"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2020/01/24/inenglish/1579861959_005340.html

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Opposition parties in Spain are calling on the transportation minister, José Luis Ábalos, to confirm whether or not he met in secret with the Venezuelan vice-president, Delcy Rodríguez, in the early hours of Monday morning at Madrid’s Adolfo Suárez-Barajas airport. European Union sanctions prevent Rodríguez from entering the bloc’s airspace.

According to a story published on Spanish news website Vozpopuli, Ábalos held a meeting with President Nicolás Maduro’s second-in-command inside a private plane owned by the company Sky Valet, taking advantage of a technical stop in Spain on the way to Turkey.

The story also stated that Rodríguez and six of her traveling companions, including her chief of staff, entered one of the VIP lounges in Barajas. Vozpopuli reported that Ábalos denied having met with the Venezuelan lawmaker.

Ábalos, of the Socialist Party (PSOE), has told EL PAÍS that he was at the airport on private business, to meet the Venezuelan tourism minister, Félix Plasencia, with whom he has been friends for several years and who was traveling on the same plane as the Venezuelan vice-president.

Plasencia, who is a Spanish citizen, according to the minister, arrived in Madrid as the head of the Venezuelan delegation attending the Fitur tourism fair, currently taking place in the Spanish capital.

Ábalos told EL PAÍS that he did not have any formal contact with the Venezuelan vice-president and that a meeting with her was not his intention when he traveled to the airport. He added that in recent months he has had a number of meetings with members of the Venezuelan opposition, including the acting president, Juan Guiadó

But by Friday afternoon, police sources were telling a different story. According to their version of events, Ábalos was called to the scene given Rodríguez’s insistence that she be allowed to disembark from the aircraft. The minister is alleged to have boarded the plane to convince her not to step onto Spanish soil, given that such an action would cause a diplomatic incident (...)


Yet another communication error made by Sánchez and Ábalos
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Skye
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« Reply #1365 on: January 26, 2020, 06:09:39 AM »

Little political storm this week concerning Venezuela. On the one hand, there has been controversy over the visit of opposition leader and "president in charge" Juan Guaidó. Pedro Sánchez decided not holding a meeting with Guaidó, whom met with Foreign Affairs minister instead. Obviously this has raised harsh criticism from the opposition, whose leader Pablo Casado held a brief meeting with the Venezuelan leader. Guaidó was also greeted by local and regional authorities in Madrid (governed by a PP-Cs coalition) as well attended a demonstration of Venezuelan expats against Maduro. The decision of Sánchez also exposed a rift between former socialist PMs José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero and Felipe González, with the latter unconditionally aligning with the Venezuelan opposition and the former advocating a negotiation that leads to democratic elections. On the other hand, a brief meeting between Transport minister José Luis Äbalos and the Venezuelan vice-president Delcy Rodríguez at Madrid airport generated considerable buzz in the media, with allegations of "secret talks"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2020/01/24/inenglish/1579861959_005340.html

Quote
Opposition parties in Spain are calling on the transportation minister, José Luis Ábalos, to confirm whether or not he met in secret with the Venezuelan vice-president, Delcy Rodríguez, in the early hours of Monday morning at Madrid’s Adolfo Suárez-Barajas airport. European Union sanctions prevent Rodríguez from entering the bloc’s airspace.

According to a story published on Spanish news website Vozpopuli, Ábalos held a meeting with President Nicolás Maduro’s second-in-command inside a private plane owned by the company Sky Valet, taking advantage of a technical stop in Spain on the way to Turkey.

The story also stated that Rodríguez and six of her traveling companions, including her chief of staff, entered one of the VIP lounges in Barajas. Vozpopuli reported that Ábalos denied having met with the Venezuelan lawmaker.

Ábalos, of the Socialist Party (PSOE), has told EL PAÍS that he was at the airport on private business, to meet the Venezuelan tourism minister, Félix Plasencia, with whom he has been friends for several years and who was traveling on the same plane as the Venezuelan vice-president.

Plasencia, who is a Spanish citizen, according to the minister, arrived in Madrid as the head of the Venezuelan delegation attending the Fitur tourism fair, currently taking place in the Spanish capital.

Ábalos told EL PAÍS that he did not have any formal contact with the Venezuelan vice-president and that a meeting with her was not his intention when he traveled to the airport. He added that in recent months he has had a number of meetings with members of the Venezuelan opposition, including the acting president, Juan Guiadó

But by Friday afternoon, police sources were telling a different story. According to their version of events, Ábalos was called to the scene given Rodríguez’s insistence that she be allowed to disembark from the aircraft. The minister is alleged to have boarded the plane to convince her not to step onto Spanish soil, given that such an action would cause a diplomatic incident (...)


Yet another communication error made by Sánchez and Ábalos

Yes, Venezuelans in Spain, at least those who pay attention to politics, aren't happy with Sánchez. His decision makes little sense considering he recognized Guaidó as interim president last year, and Guaidó met with BoJo and Macron earlier this week. So it's hard not to see this as Sánchez just wanting to avoid internal conflict within his administration, or worse, ceding to pressure from Podemos (Pablo Iglesias said this week that Guaidó is no longer president of the Venezuelan National Assembly, so much for distancing themselves from chavismo, huh?).

And the situation with Ávalos was just the icing on the cake.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1366 on: January 26, 2020, 11:11:29 AM »






Yet another communication error made by Sánchez and Ábalos

Yes, Venezuelans in Spain, at least those who pay attention to politics, aren't happy with Sánchez. His decision makes little sense considering he recognized Guaidó as interim president last year, and Guaidó met with BoJo and Macron earlier this week. So it's hard not to see this as Sánchez just wanting to avoid internal conflict within his administration, or worse, ceding to pressure from Podemos (Pablo Iglesias said this week that Guaidó is no longer president of the Venezuelan National Assembly, so much for distancing themselves from chavismo, huh?).

And the situation with Ávalos was just the icing on the cake.
[/quote]

Venezuela is always marshy ground and it became apparent the coalition government doesn't know how to handle with it. The problem with Sánchez is his lack of consistency (it's not only he recognized Guaidó, he pushed the EU to recognize the interim president as well). I don't know if Sánchez is seeking another kind of approach to the Venezuelan crisis, but he made a mistake. A courtesy meeting with Guaidó would have been better. Regarding Iglesias, he referred earlier to Guaidó as ''a very prominent oppositon leader''. I think the description is consistent. But stating that  Guaidó is longer the president of the National Assembly is going too far and an obvious mistake, given the recent incidents in Caracas. I believe the police's version of the meeting between Ábalos and the Maduro's vice-president, as it makes more sense than conspiracy theories. My conclusion is that coalition governments need to manage the differences between partners. Also, it's very important to communicate effectively. Especially when you make decisions on problematic questions like Catalonia or Venezuela, because it's easy to find yourself walking on a minefield with the enemy shooting from the outside.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1367 on: January 31, 2020, 01:50:08 AM »
« Edited: January 31, 2020, 05:46:54 AM by Velasco »

Catalan premier Quim Torra made a public statement on Wednesday, announcing the term is over and a fresh election will be called at some unspecified date. Torra has been disqualified by the Electoral Court and is no longer member of the Catalan parliament, ruling ratified by the Supreme Court. The legal situation of the premier created a conflict within the governing coalition. Torra (JxCAT) refused to resign his seat in parliament, denying the legitimacy of the Spanish courts. But the Speaker of the Parliament Roger Torrent (ERC) had no other choice but to abide the ruling that strips Torra from his seat, otherwise he could be indicted for disobedience. There were fruitless talks between the coalition partners, in order to rectify the situation, involving the 'exiled' Carles Puigdemont and Marta Rovira. Torra stated the elections will take place after the budget plan agreed with CatComú-Podem is passed by the parliament.

The Spanish government announced afterwards the bilateral talks with the Catalan government would be postponed until the elections take place, a statement deemed by ERC as a ""flagrant breach" of the investiture deal. Pedro Sánchez rectified after a meeting with ERC spokesman in Congress Gabriel Rufián. A new statement was issued:

https://english.elpais.com/politics/catalonia_independence/2020-01-30/prime-minister-puts-talks-with-catalan-premier-on-hold-until-after-elections.html

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“The government hopes to be able to start the said dialogue once the Catalan people have spoken and a new parliament has been formed, as well as a government,” the statement from La Moncloa said. “As soon as the elections are held and there is a new government, we will start the dialogue.”
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« Reply #1368 on: January 31, 2020, 07:15:24 AM »

Likeliest future coalition?
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« Reply #1369 on: January 31, 2020, 07:54:00 AM »

Prediction: A nightmare result for PSOE/PSC where they end up holding the balance of power between the right and the separatists. They obviously refuse to support either side, which leads to ERC, JxCat and CUP withdrawing support in Congress and yet another national election.

(Seriously though, how realistic is this scenario?)
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« Reply #1370 on: January 31, 2020, 08:19:36 AM »

JxCat doesn't support the government, and neither does CUP. The only Catalan separatist party that supports the government is ERC.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1371 on: January 31, 2020, 08:35:20 AM »


Hard to tell. Actually there are two options:

1) Repetition of the separatist coaltion. It's the likeliest scenario. In my opinion. However, it matters who's the first to come. ERC won the 2019 general elections in Catalonia and is the clear favourite, but Puigdemont was the leading candidate in the EP elections. The battle for hegemony will be tough in the nationalist camp

2) Leftwing tripartite coalition netween ERC, PSC and the 'Comuns' (Podemos allies in Catalonia). It'd be good for the governability of Spain and the resolution of the Catalan conflict, but there's still acrimony between republicans and socialists. Less likely, imo.

3) On a side note, Ines Arrimadas stated willingness for a PP-Cs coalition. A sign of desperation.

Prediction: A nightmare result for PSOE/PSC where they end up holding the balance of power between the right and the separatists. They obviously refuse to support either side, which leads to ERC, JxCat and CUP withdrawing support in Congress and yet another national election.

(Seriously though, how realistic is this scenario?)

JxCAT and CUP are not supporting the PSOE-UP government in Congress. On the other hand, there are little chances for a 'constitutionalist' majority in Catalonia. Cs is struggling to survive. The ERC support in Congress is key. The main goal of the republicans is gaining the leadership of the Catalan government. Results and subsequent alliances will have consequences for the governability of Spain, but I can't tell which consequences.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1372 on: January 31, 2020, 03:36:04 PM »

How likely is this to trigger another national election and looking at numbers unless one side budges seems unlikely to have a viable coalition on either side there.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1373 on: January 31, 2020, 04:26:28 PM »

How likely is this to trigger another national election and looking at numbers unless one side budges seems unlikely to have a viable coalition on either side there.

I don't have a clue. How do you expect an answer when elections in Catalonia have not been fixed yet? We only know the Catalan premier made a statement and said there will be a snap election. The only thing we know for sure is this pre-campaign scenario complicates the budget negotiations in Congress. It would have been better for the Sánchez government that Torra would have called immediately. Also, PSOE and ERC have an investiture deal conditioned to a negotiation table between central and regional governments. Sánchez and Torra will have a first meeting on Thursday next week, if I'm not wrong.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1374 on: February 01, 2020, 01:01:35 PM »

For more details: "Catalan premier announces snap election amid dispute over role as deputy''

https://english.elpais.com/elpais/2020/01/29/inenglish/1580292062_280050.html

Quote
Catalan premier Quim Torra announced on Wednesday that there will be a snap election in the northeastern Spanish region once the regional budget is passed by parliament, a process that could take between two and three months.

Torra made the announcement during a surprise institutional statement, after the Catalan parliament earlier this week decided to support a judicial ruling stripping the premier of his seat in the chamber. This move has evidenced a rift in the governing coalition, which is made up of the separatist parties Together for Catalonia (JxCAT) and the Catalan Republican Left (ERC) (...)

“The term had no political future if unity cannot be maintained,” he said on Wednesday. “No government can function without unity. [...] We have to recover the path of unity, resume our shared struggles.”

  
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