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March 07, 2021, 08:05:50 PM

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021  (Read 135540 times)
El Betico
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« Reply #1200 on: November 10, 2019, 05:50:25 PM »
« edited: November 10, 2019, 06:04:21 PM by El Betico »

If the CpM lead in Melilla, now at 200, holds...

...PSOE+UP+MP+PRC+BNG+Teruel+CpM+PNV+Bildu: 176

A majority without relying on Catalans in this scenario, exists...can we imagine the Basques on the train with a Yes vote as an anti-Vox measure?

This govt, well this govt with less individual actors, was also an option back in April, it was technically the govt Sanchez and Podemos were  negotiating for. But there were problems with Bildu, and of course Podemos vs PSOE was an issue.

Yes, but I have a bit of hope based on changing circumstances...not retaining the 176 without ERC was my fear, almost a certainty...if CpM holds, I was wrong, and I will have a (for now) small sense of relief.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1201 on: November 10, 2019, 05:52:20 PM »

Interestingly, CpM looks to have gotten most of their votes from C's, though you never know with such a small community. But since turnout dropped, it's hard to imagine a massive trade of new voters and previous voters. Perhaps C's voters ended up repaying CpM for the local govt?
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Mike88
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« Reply #1202 on: November 10, 2019, 05:53:29 PM »

PSOE supporters seem not willing to let Sanchéz speak...
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Velasco
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« Reply #1203 on: November 10, 2019, 06:01:19 PM »

I hope the Spanish left has learned not to mess with the spectres of history.

I doubt the exhumation of Franco is the main reason behind the rise of the Francoists
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P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong
razze
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« Reply #1204 on: November 10, 2019, 06:02:18 PM »

I hope the Spanish left has learned not to mess with the spectres of history.

I doubt the exhumation of Franco is the main reason behind the rise of the Francoists

the fact that PP stayed silent on the issue show tells us that the majority of people didn't give a f*** about the exhumation when there are actual issues that matter to worry about. Catalunya is what drove the rise of the right.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1205 on: November 10, 2019, 06:02:58 PM »

I'm watching TVE, and almost every pundit in trouncing Sanchéz speech.
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bigic
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« Reply #1206 on: November 10, 2019, 06:04:36 PM »

I hope the Spanish left has learned not to mess with the spectres of history.
lol

BTW ~1500 votes more need to be counted in Melilla. Last update was at 23:48 and CpM leads by 152 votes.
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tack50
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« Reply #1207 on: November 10, 2019, 06:07:03 PM »

I'm watching TVE, and almost every pundit in trouncing Sanchéz speech.

Just like in April, there were cries of "With Casado No" and "With Iglesias Yes". Sánchez almost felt angry at his own party supporters during his victory speech lmao
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skbl17
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« Reply #1208 on: November 10, 2019, 06:11:32 PM »
« Edited: November 10, 2019, 06:21:06 PM by skbl17 »

PP back in the lead in Melilla (by 50 83 votes).
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tack50
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« Reply #1209 on: November 10, 2019, 06:25:24 PM »

Also, eldiario has a nice map of the election results by municipality

By party: https://www.eldiario.es/politica/MAPA-resultados-municipio-10n-elecciones_0_962054215.html

By bloc: https://www.eldiario.es/politica/MAPA-izquierda-resultados-ideologicos-municipio_0_962054275.html

Honestly among the funniest results imo is Teruel Existe getting in not because of rural voters, but rather because of a huge overperformance in the provincial capital of Teruel town lol. They got a whopping 42% of the vote there.

Granted, Teruel town only has 36k people, but considering that only 3 municipalities in Teruel (out of more than 200) have a population above 5000 people, it is still a hilarious thing to watch the "rural" party overperform in urban Teruel

Another observation: The suburban areas near Madrid and Zaragoza where Cs overperformed in April seem to have "gone home" for PP, though Vox gets some really interesting overperformances in more ex-urban places near Madrid (spilling well into Toledo and Guadalajara provinces) as well as in Zaragoza.

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Mike88
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« Reply #1210 on: November 10, 2019, 06:28:25 PM »
« Edited: November 10, 2019, 06:41:20 PM by Mike88 »

A little bit of fun, how the Portuguese/Spanish border voted:

Results border Portugal-Spain:

Caminha/A Guarda:

38.8% PS/PP 31.9%
31.8% PSD/PSOE 25.0%
  9.5% BE/UP 16.3%
  3.9% CDU/BNG 10.4%

Valença/Tui:

39.9% PSD/PP 31.1%
35.6% PS/PSOE 29.6%
  6.8% BE/UP 11.8%
  3.5% CDS/Vox 9.3%

Chaves/Verín

38.3% PSD/PP 37.1%
37.1% PS/PSOE 32.5%
  6.2% BE/Vox 9.3%
  4.2% CDS/BNG 8.3%

Vilar Formoso/Fuentes de Oñoro

42.0% PS/PP 41.0%
33.0% PSD/Vox 26.0%
  6.2% CDS/PSOE 24.4%
  5.8% BE/C's 6.4%

Marvão/Valencia de Alcántara

47.6% PS/PSOE 35.4%
27.9% PSD/PP 28.3%
  6.2% BE/Vox 20.2%
  3.7% CDU/UP 7.8%

Elvas/Badajoz

45.7% PS/PP 28.3%
18.7% PSD/PSOE 28.0%
  8.7% BE/Vox 22.2%
  6.4% CDS/UP 9.8%

Elvas/Olivenza

45.7% PS/PSOE 45.7%
18.7% PSD/PP 20.0%
  8.7% BE/Vox 13.9%
  6.4% CDS/UP 12.1%

Mourão/Villanueva del Fresno

43.5% PS/PSOE 40.6%
26.0% PSD/PP 26.1%
10.7% CDU/Vox 19.4%
  5.0% BE/C's 6.4%

Alcoutim/Sanlúcar de Guadiana

48.0% PS/PP 36.6%
28.0% PSD/PSOE 30.9%
  5.7% BE/Vox 23.4%
  5.4% CDU/C's 4.6%

Vila Real de Santo António/Ayamonte

40.1% PS/PSOE 34.1%
16.7% PSD/PP 21.1%
13.2% BE/Vox 20.9%
12.6% CDU/UP 12.2%
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God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams
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« Reply #1211 on: November 10, 2019, 06:30:21 PM »

PEDRO SANCHEZ, TACTICAL MASTERMIND
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tack50
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« Reply #1212 on: November 10, 2019, 06:38:08 PM »

I decided to do a bit of math to search for possible coalitions and here are the 2 most likely ones (for each possible route Sánchez can take)

Option 1:

Yes: 125 (PSOE+MP+PRC+Teruel Existe)
Abstain: 102 (PP+Cs+Navarra Suma+CC)
No: 123 (Vox+UP+ERC+JxCat+PNV+Bildu+CUP+BNG)

Option 2:

Yes: 167 (PSOE+UP+PNV+MP+PRC)
Abstain: 21 (ERC+Bildu+CC+Teruel Existe+BNG)
No: 162 (PP+Vox+Cs+JxCat+CUP+Navarra Suma)
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Skye
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« Reply #1213 on: November 10, 2019, 06:48:21 PM »

Melilla finally finished counting, and the PP kept the seat by 0.58%.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1214 on: November 10, 2019, 06:48:36 PM »

PP wins Melilla: 29.6% vs 29.0% for CpM.
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El Betico
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« Reply #1215 on: November 10, 2019, 06:50:03 PM »

PP by 179 in Melilla.

No possible majorities without relying on ERC( except for a Grand Coalition, obviously).
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urutzizu
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« Reply #1216 on: November 10, 2019, 07:09:46 PM »


I would not say that its a tactical defeat for him. For those in the PSOE establishment, Podemos was always the greater threat than VOX cannibalizing the right. Just look how Susana Díaz/Gonzales did everything in their power (as far as conspiring with PP) to keep Podemos from Power. Podemos weakened and split, while PSOE stays practically stable, is tactically not a bad result for PSOE.
Although it is sad for the Spanish Left overall of course (and its state of being reduced to bitter factionalism), and not good for Spanish Democracy.
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Skye
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« Reply #1217 on: November 10, 2019, 07:17:34 PM »

Some rough math points to me that (barring the regions with those quirky indepenentist/regionalist parties) the left improved the most in Madrid. The left vote in Madrid is 45.5%, up from 43.5% in April. The Right is down from 53.3 to 52.3, so it's a 3.1 swing in the left's favor. Probably due to Errejon's relatively strong showing.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1218 on: November 10, 2019, 07:18:27 PM »


I would not say that its a tactical defeat for him. For those in the PSOE establishment, Podemos was always the greater threat than VOX cannibalizing the right. Just look how Susana Díaz/Gonzales did everything in their power (as far as conspiring with PP) to keep Podemos from Power. Podemos weakened and split, while PSOE stays practically stable, is tactically not a bad result for PSOE.
Although it is sad for the Spanish Left overall of course (and its state of being reduced to bitter factionalism), and not good for Spanish Democracy.

But PSOE lost 3 seats even as it got UP to lose 7.  Not sure how I read that as any sort of tactical victory.

In fact I suspect UP will become more obstinate after this election since their view might be: after PSOE threw everything at us the damage is 7 seats.  Bad but not disastrous.  We for sure have to stick to our guns. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #1219 on: November 10, 2019, 07:28:18 PM »

99.99% counted

PSOE   28.00%  120   (-3)
PP        20.82%   88 (+22)
VOX     15.09%   52 (+28)
UP        12.84%  35   (-7)
C           6.79%   10  (-47)
Mas       2.40%     3   (+2)

If you add in NA+ and Coalició Compromís in April 2019 the seats and vote share change in the Right and Left Blocs are

                   April                    Nov
            Vote       Seat      Vote       Seat
Left     43.65%    166     43.24%    158
Right   43.22%    149     43.11%    152

Pretty much no change with virtual tie.
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urutzizu
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« Reply #1220 on: November 10, 2019, 07:29:03 PM »

In fact I suspect UP will become more obstinate after this election since their view might be: after PSOE threw everything at us the damage is 7 seats.  Bad but not disastrous.  We for sure have to stick to our guns.  

Perhaps I am too cynical, but believe that this is what Sanchez tacitly wants: UP refusing to budge, so he can use the excuse to pass the Investure with help of Casado (who has already indicated tonight he is open to talks with PSOE) under the pretense of "creating a stable government in the national interest" or some bubbly statement like that.

If he wanted to govern with UP he would have done so. They agreed on almost everything, the policy paper, Podemos Ministers in Government, Iglesias out of Government, and then he just suddenly ends the talks. It just does not sound to me like someone who wants to govern with Podemos. Rather their marginalisation and delegitimisation seems his goal. But who knows. Speculation on my part. Its not like Podemos is entirely innocent in that whole saga either.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1221 on: November 10, 2019, 07:49:02 PM »
« Edited: November 10, 2019, 07:58:02 PM by Oryxslayer »

In fact I suspect UP will become more obstinate after this election since their view might be: after PSOE threw everything at us the damage is 7 seats.  Bad but not disastrous.  We for sure have to stick to our guns.  

Perhaps I am too cynical, but believe that this is what Sanchez tacitly wants: UP refusing to budge, so he can use the excuse to pass the Investure with help of Casado (who has already indicated tonight he is open to talks with PSOE) under the pretense of "creating a stable government in the national interest" or some bubbly statement like that.

If he wanted to govern with UP he would have done so. They agreed on almost everything, the policy paper, Podemos Ministers in Government, Iglesias out of Government, and then he just suddenly ends the talks. It just does not sound to me like someone who wants to govern with Podemos. Rather their marginalisation and delegitimisation seems his goal. But who knows. Speculation on my part. Its not like Podemos is entirely innocent in that whole saga either.

The talks collapsed because the negotiations between PSOE and Podemos revealed that Sanchez and  Iglesias's egos were mutually incompatible. Both believed they had more to sell than the  other, and as any backing down could be interpreted as weakness. Even if this was ignored, it would come up again, and again in the future. There is a lot of pride here: one is the leader a long-lasting party who successfully utilized the grassroots to counter-coup his rivals. The other is a personalistic campaigner who heads an insurgent party with the goal of disrupting the old establishment. If neither was going to give way, then both were fated to go their separate ways. If Casado is to back PSOE's govt, it's because he is (and was recognized to be by everyone  last cycle) far more malleable and less personalistic than his rivals.  
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jaichind
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« Reply #1222 on: November 10, 2019, 07:55:02 PM »

The pro-independence parties grew by less than I would have thought in Catalonia given recent events and rise of VOX in the rest of Spain.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1223 on: November 10, 2019, 08:20:00 PM »

Catalonia:

ERC 22.56% (-2.03%) 13 (-2)
PSC-PSOE 20.51% (-2.7%) 12 (nc)
JxCAT 13.68% (+1.63%) 8 (+1)
ECP 14.18% (-0.71%) 7 (nc)
PP 7.43% (+2,58%) 2 (+1)
CUP 6.35% (FR 2.74%) 2 (+2)
VOX 6.3% (+2.7%) 2 (+1)
Cs 5.61% (-5,94%) 2 (-3)

Nationalists 42.59% (+3,21%) 23 (+1)
Left (incl MP) 35.77% (-2.33%) 19 (nc)
Right 19.35% (-0.65%) 6 (-1)

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Velasco
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« Reply #1224 on: November 10, 2019, 08:36:20 PM »

Results in my province, Las Palmas

PSOE 29,15% (+0.83%) 3 (nc)
PP 21.39% (+5.18%) 2 (nc)
UP 15.41% (-1.31%) 1 (-1)
VOX 13.3% (+6.3%) 1 (+1)
NC-CC 9.94% (-3.1%)* 1 (+1)
Cs 5.78% (-9.63%) 0 (-1)

NC and CC ran separately in April, getting 6.65% and 6.39% respectively

Finally UP lost the second seat to the regionalist coalition, with VOX winning the seat lost by Cs. MP got 1.7% of the vote; even adding UP+MP it's not enough to double the regionalist list. UP came second in April slightly ahead of PP (it was catastrophic result for the conservatives)
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